Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) both declined, with weekly decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - Internationally, there is a lack of strong factors guiding the US cotton market, which is fluctuating. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held, and trade dynamics should be monitored [7]. - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, while the demand side shows obvious signs of the off - season in the textile industry, with reduced profitability and lower operating rates of spinning enterprises [7]. - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, but there is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang due to high - temperature weather [7]. - Overall, as prices rise, downstream procurement becomes more cautious, and the upward momentum of the market is weakening. However, the tight supply provides strong support, and the market is expected to adjust strongly. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to weather and trade relations [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week, with decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the US cotton market is fluctuating. Domestically, cotton supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, and the textile industry is in the off - season. The overall market is expected to adjust strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather conditions [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.28%. As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 0.89% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 15.67% month - on - month [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 17, the net export sales of US cotton in the current market year decreased by 32,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next market year increased by 132,600 bales. The export shipments increased by 18% compared with the previous week. As of July 22, the Cotlook:A index was 78.65 cents per pound, a 1.01% decrease month - on - month [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 futures traders in cotton was - 39,736, and that in cotton yarn was - 394 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,265, and that of cotton yarn was 96 [21][27][33]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 25, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,549 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,740 yuan per ton. As of July 23, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton [41][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 23, 2025, the import price index of cotton (FC Index):M: 1% quota port pick - up price was 13,728 yuan per ton, a 0.26% increase month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,438 yuan per ton, a 0.17% increase month - on - month. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,203 yuan per ton, a 0.09% increase month - on - month [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 23, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,105 yuan per ton, and that of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,815 yuan per ton [62]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease month - on - month. As of June 15, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease month - on - month. In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1% [66][70]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase month - on - month [74]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease month - on - month [78][82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [83]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [88].

Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment phase. The spot cotton price index has increased, and the pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream has difficulty in increasing volume. Spinning mills are still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the cotton growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is improving, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. Supply pressure has emerged in the short - term, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream is difficult to increase volume. Spinning mills are in large - scale losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is good, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. The supply side has brought short - term pressure to cotton prices, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In mid - July, most parts of Xinjiang had high temperatures. Precipitation was higher in most parts of Hami and lower in the rest of Xinjiang. Sunshine hours were higher in parts of northern Xinjiang and lower in the rest. The weather was beneficial to the growth of summer corn in southern Xinjiang but not conducive to the growth of spring wheat, spring corn, cotton, and fruit [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market price rose, but the downstream was difficult to increase volume. Spinning mills' profits were still in large losses, and the operating rate decreased. The cotton fabric market had few inquiries and mostly small and urgent orders [7] - Macroscopically, trade negotiations were approaching. Internationally, the growth progress was slow but the good - quality rate was improving, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area increased year - on - year, and there was an expectation of a good harvest. Recently, the sale of old cotton increased, and the basis of new cotton decreased slightly. The short - term supply pressured cotton prices. The yarn price was strong, and the cotton yarn inventory did not accumulate. The cotton import in June was low, and the commercial inventory was still tight. The short - term main contract fluctuated and adjusted, and the 9 - 1 spread converged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, the good - quality rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, the boll - setting rate was 33%, and the budding rate was 71% [9] - As of July 18, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons or 5.71% from the previous week [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates [17][18][23]

Group 1 - Cotton futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 14,285.00 yuan, with a current price of 14,230.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.04% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future of cotton prices, with some expecting continued upward momentum while others predict a volatile market [2][3] Group 2 - Zheng cotton's upward movement may be limited due to alleviated high temperatures in Xinjiang, despite a strong domestic market supported by decreasing commercial inventories [2] - The market is currently facing a tight situation with high basis levels and no significant release of import quotas or stockpiles, which may sustain the upward trend if large-scale liquidation does not occur [2] - Short-term market expectations indicate a continuation of a fluctuating trend, influenced by weather conditions, demand, and current inventory levels [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract both rose, with weekly increases of about 1.96% and 1.87% respectively [6][18]. - Internationally, the decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton and the spill - over of crude oil price fluctuations boosted the US cotton market, but weak weekly export sales data dragged down the increase. The market is waiting for the USDA quarterly inventory report and planting area report [6]. - Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season. Enterprises' new orders are poor, the overall operating rate is slowly decreasing, and some spinning enterprises are in a state of inventory accumulation. The old - crop fundamentals lack driving force. However, the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang has led to concerns about production, driving a short - term rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and cotton yarn futures 2509 rose this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the US cotton market has mixed factors. Domestically, the textile off - season affects demand, while weather concerns drive a short - term rebound [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract rose by about 3.19% this week. As of June 17, 2025, non - commercial long and short positions changed, and the net position increased by 0.50% [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of June 12, 2025, the weekly export volume of US upland cotton decreased by 13.36% month - on - month, and the cumulative export volume increased by 2.14%. As of June 24, the international cotton spot price index rose by 1.1% [14]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and cotton yarn futures 2509 rose. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 36385, and that of cotton yarn futures were - 113. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10302, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 [18][25][32]. - **Spot Market**: As of June 27, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15109 yuan/ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20380 yuan/ton [39][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of June 25, 2025, the imported cotton price index and imported cotton yarn price index all rose slightly [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of June 26, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 497 yuan/ton, and that with 1% quota was 1253 yuan/ton [54]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: In May 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year, and the national cotton commercial inventory decreased month - on - month [59][63]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of the end of May, textile enterprises' yarn and grey fabric inventories increased [67]. - **Terminal Consumption**: From January to May 2025, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles increased by 3.3% year - on - year [71][73]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented, but no specific data is given [75]. - **Stock Market**: The report mentions the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa, but no specific analysis is provided [79][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1%. The consumption off - season in the textile industry is evident, with slow inventory clearance and minor changes in the old - crop fundamentals, resulting in short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season cotton in major producing areas due to the risk of high - temperature heat damage [7]. - Future trading should focus on factors such as changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Trend**: This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1% [7]. - **International Situation**: The sowing progress of U.S. cotton lags behind the same period in previous years, and the crop rating has been downgraded, but the recent weather conditions in major producing areas are favorable [7]. - **Domestic Situation**: The textile industry is in a consumption off - season. New orders are poor, with limited summer order increments, mostly short - term and small - scale. Some enterprises have reduced shifts, and the overall operating rate is slowly declining. Some spinning enterprises are accumulating inventory, with poor profit margins, leading to cautious raw material procurement [7]. - **Future Outlook**: In the short term, prices will fluctuate. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in full bloom in most parts of Xinjiang. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season cotton in major producing areas [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **U.S. Cotton Market**: This week, the price of the U.S. cotton December contract fell by about 1.89%. As of June 10, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.35% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 13.74% month - on - month [11]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: For the week ending June 5, the net increase in U.S. cotton export sales was 60,200 bales, a 45% decrease from the previous week and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [18]. - **International Cotton Spot Price**: As of June 17, 2025, the international cotton spot price index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.77% increase from the previous week [18]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 40,263, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 148 lots. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,532 lots, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 lots [22][29][35]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between Zhengzhou Cotton 9 - 1 contracts was 147 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,421 yuan per ton [39]. - **Spot Market**: As of June 20, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,879 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,300 yuan per ton. As of June 12, 2025, CY index: OEC10s was 14,540 yuan per ton, and CY index: JC40 was 23,440 yuan per ton [43][50]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of June 17, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index): M decreased by 0.64% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. As of June 18, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for C32S, C21S, and JC32S remained unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of June 18, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 497 yuan per ton, and that of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,253 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a 16.71% decrease from the previous month and an 8.36% decrease from the same period last year. As of the end of May, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 941,100 tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from the previous month [61]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 20,000 tons from the previous month and an 86.3% decrease from the same period last year. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 100,000 tons, a 14.5% decrease from the same period last year and a 16.67% decrease from the previous month. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a 15.8% decrease from the same period last year [65]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of the end of May, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 22.34 days, an increase of 1.36 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.2 days, an increase of 1.72 days from the previous month [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase from the same period last year. In May 2025, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% increase from the same period last year. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase from the same period last year [73][75]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [77]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [82].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,606 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton were mostly above CF09 + 1150, and those for Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton were mostly above CF09 + 850 [7] - The atmosphere and prices in the pure - cotton yarn market changed little. Traders' inventories increased slightly, while spinners' inventories decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market remained dull, with slower shipments, increased inventories, and manufacturers offering volume - based discounts [7] - Macroscopically, there were many disturbances, such as Trump threatening to impose a 50% tariff on the EU and G7 countries discussing imposing tariffs on Chinese small parcels. Overseas, the US market was closed due to a holiday. Domestically, new cotton planting was in good condition, with expected stable and increasing planting areas. The downstream finished - product inventories were not high, but the grey fabric market showed signs of weakness recently. The cotton market had limited changes, and range - bound operations were recommended [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending May 20, according to CFTC, the non - commercial long positions of CFTC US cotton futures funds were 62,669 (- 1906) contracts, decreasing for the third consecutive week, and the short positions were 91,825 (+ 9707) contracts, increasing for the second consecutive week. The total ICE positions were 235,995 (+ 11,252) contracts, increasing for the third consecutive week, and the net long ratio was - 12.4%, down 4.5 percentage points month - on - month and 12.3 percentage points year - on - year [9] - In Pakistan, new cotton planting had expanded, but water shortages in Sindh restricted the progress and threatened seedlings. Some observers expected the national cotton output to decline, estimating it to be between 7 million and 8 million bales [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including those related to cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][20][23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Cotton prices fluctuate with market sentiment. The domestic cotton spot market has light trading, while the cotton yarn market has fair transactions and slightly rising prices. The cotton fabric market has slightly improved, but overall orders are still insufficient, and export orders have limited improvement. ICE cotton continues to decline, lacking upward momentum in the short term [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,390 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.19%, and CY2507 closed at 19,620 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%. ICE cotton 07 closed at 65.14 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.53%. The trading volume of CF2509 decreased by 35,159 lots to 245,332 lots, and the trading volume of CY2507 decreased by 1,999 lots to 4,054 lots [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,243 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan. The 3128B index was 14,577 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, with a 20 - yuan change compared to the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan change [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is still light, and most spot basis prices are stable. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang have different sales basis prices, and the cotton outbound freight by truck has little change [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The transaction of pure cotton yarn is fair, the price is slightly rising, the inventory of spinning mills has decreased, but the profit has deteriorated. The transaction of cotton fabric has slightly improved, some orders have returned, but overall orders are still insufficient, and export orders have limited improvement [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton continued to decline last Friday. The weather in the US cotton - growing areas is good, and the market is concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3]. Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [5].

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