「2025.06.20」 棉花（纱）市场周报 基本面变化不大，等待新因素指引 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情分析： 本周郑棉主力2509合约上涨，周度涨幅约0.04%。棉纱期货2509合约上涨约0.1%。 行情展望：国际方面，美棉播种进度落后于往年同期，且作物评级有所下调，不过 近期主产区天气条件良好。国内方面，纺织行业消费淡季特征显现，企业新增订单 表现不佳，夏季订单总体增量较为有限，订单多呈现短平快的特点，鲜少有大单下 达，部分企业根据自身订单减少班次，整体开机率缓慢下调。部分纺企处于累库存 状态，盈利空间也持续不佳，直接影响了企业对原材料的采购意愿，在原料采购策 略上表现得格外谨慎，仅根据实际生产需求补充库存。总体来说，消费淡季，去库 存速度缓慢，旧作基本面变化较小，短期价格震荡。值得注意的是，近期全疆大部 处于现蕾开花期的棉花存在不同程度高温热害风险，持续关注主产区新季棉花生 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,606 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton were mostly above CF09 + 1150, and those for Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton were mostly above CF09 + 850 [7] - The atmosphere and prices in the pure - cotton yarn market changed little. Traders' inventories increased slightly, while spinners' inventories decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market remained dull, with slower shipments, increased inventories, and manufacturers offering volume - based discounts [7] - Macroscopically, there were many disturbances, such as Trump threatening to impose a 50% tariff on the EU and G7 countries discussing imposing tariffs on Chinese small parcels. Overseas, the US market was closed due to a holiday. Domestically, new cotton planting was in good condition, with expected stable and increasing planting areas. The downstream finished - product inventories were not high, but the grey fabric market showed signs of weakness recently. The cotton market had limited changes, and range - bound operations were recommended [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending May 20, according to CFTC, the non - commercial long positions of CFTC US cotton futures funds were 62,669 (- 1906) contracts, decreasing for the third consecutive week, and the short positions were 91,825 (+ 9707) contracts, increasing for the second consecutive week. The total ICE positions were 235,995 (+ 11,252) contracts, increasing for the third consecutive week, and the net long ratio was - 12.4%, down 4.5 percentage points month - on - month and 12.3 percentage points year - on - year [9] - In Pakistan, new cotton planting had expanded, but water shortages in Sindh restricted the progress and threatened seedlings. Some observers expected the national cotton output to decline, estimating it to be between 7 million and 8 million bales [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including those related to cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][20][23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Cotton prices fluctuate with market sentiment. The domestic cotton spot market has light trading, while the cotton yarn market has fair transactions and slightly rising prices. The cotton fabric market has slightly improved, but overall orders are still insufficient, and export orders have limited improvement. ICE cotton continues to decline, lacking upward momentum in the short term [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,390 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.19%, and CY2507 closed at 19,620 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%. ICE cotton 07 closed at 65.14 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.53%. The trading volume of CF2509 decreased by 35,159 lots to 245,332 lots, and the trading volume of CY2507 decreased by 1,999 lots to 4,054 lots [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,243 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan. The 3128B index was 14,577 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, with a 20 - yuan change compared to the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan change [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is still light, and most spot basis prices are stable. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang have different sales basis prices, and the cotton outbound freight by truck has little change [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The transaction of pure cotton yarn is fair, the price is slightly rising, the inventory of spinning mills has decreased, but the profit has deteriorated. The transaction of cotton fabric has slightly improved, some orders have returned, but overall orders are still insufficient, and export orders have limited improvement [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton continued to decline last Friday. The weather in the US cotton - growing areas is good, and the market is concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3]. Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [5].

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