Market Sentiment - The real estate market has undergone three years of adjustment, leading to differing opinions on whether selling properties now is wise or shortsighted [1] - Opponents argue that selling now would result in guaranteed losses, asserting that the market has bottomed out and that external factors like population decline do not significantly impact property prices [3] - Proponents believe that property prices may continue to decline, and selling now could prevent larger losses, citing examples of individuals who have already incurred significant financial losses by waiting too long to sell [4] Expert Insights - Experts suggest that selling a property should be a comprehensive decision; for those in urgent need of cash, selling may not be the best option, and property collateralization could be a more prudent choice [6] - For individuals planning to upgrade to a larger home, selling before buying is recommended to avoid financial pressure and potential losses from an unsold property [7] - In cases of high mortgage pressure due to job loss or reduced income, selling may be a necessary step to clear debt and navigate financial difficulties [8] Industry Perspective - The current real estate market is undergoing profound changes, with significant inventory pressure and the need for new growth drivers to stabilize the market [10] - Historical precedents from Japan and the U.S. illustrate the potential long-term impacts of real estate market corrections, emphasizing the importance of adapting to policy changes and market dynamics [11] - The future of the real estate market suggests a shift towards viewing properties primarily as places to live rather than investment vehicles, with a recommendation to liquidate underperforming assets [11][13]

Policy Changes - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant fluctuations due to a series of favorable policies, including relaxed purchase and sale restrictions, historical lows in mortgage rates, and reduced down payment requirements [1] - Major cities have implemented policies such as "recognizing the house, not the loan," which were previously unimaginable [1] Market Response - Despite the favorable policies, the market remains unresponsive, with declining sales figures and increasing inventory levels [1] - Major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden are facing severe financial difficulties, leading to project delays and an increase in unfinished buildings [1] Housing Supply and Demand - The number of unsold homes in China is approaching 120 million, sufficient to accommodate 300 to 400 million people, while 14 million new homes are added to the market annually, indicating a supply surplus [5] - Urbanization rates are nearing 70%, and demographic trends such as aging populations and declining birth rates are expected to further impact housing demand [5] Future Price Predictions - Predictions suggest that housing prices in first-tier cities will stabilize and align more closely with income levels, avoiding significant increases or decreases [6] - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities may experience a "cabbage price" scenario due to population outflow and oversupply, leading to a market characterized by "price without market" [8] Shift in Market Dynamics - The introduction of affordable housing projects is expected to disrupt the commodity housing market, shifting the focus back to housing as a necessity rather than an investment vehicle [6] - The changing landscape suggests that housing will return to its primary function as a place to live, rather than a speculative asset [8] Investment Considerations - As housing becomes more accessible, new investment strategies may emerge, prompting individuals to consider alternatives such as stocks, mutual funds, or entrepreneurship [8]

Group 1 - The number of new residential projects in Ganzhou's main urban area has significantly decreased, with only 2 new projects launched in Q1 2025 compared to 5 in the same period last year [1][3] - The reduction in new projects is attributed to a significant decrease in land auctions, which are the primary source of new housing supply, leading to a scarcity of development land [3][4] - Developers are now more cautious in acquiring land, focusing on core urban areas, and the overall land supply has slowed down, impacting the number of new housing projects [3][6] Group 2 - As of 2025, no residential land has been officially auctioned in Ganzhou's main urban area, indicating a tightening supply of new projects in the near future [4][6] - Upcoming new projects are limited, with only a few known to be launching soon, such as the fourth-generation residential project Zhangjiang Shangjing and the villa project Banshan Yunshu [6] - Current homebuyers in Ganzhou are more discerning, prioritizing quality, community environment, property services, and supporting facilities, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [8]

以下文章来源于真叫卢俊 ，作者真叫卢俊团队 真叫卢俊 . 认认真真聊地产，实实在在谈买房。 本文来自微信公众号： 真叫卢俊 （ID：zhenjiaolujun0426） ，作者：余奔雷，题图来自：视觉中国 全国楼市很多都有传奇色彩，但第一城一定是15年前的温州，而且这个第一还不是在二线城市群里，而是和一线去比。 一张图展示下温州楼市曾经的江湖地位： 数据来源：公开信息，仅供参考 接连三年压过当时的北京和上海，涨幅也堪称神速。 京沪还在2字头的时候，温州已经率先破3、直接飞上天了，成为全国房价第一城。 毫不夸张地说，彼时的温州楼市就是中国楼市的风向标。 但最近，我们看到一份满天飞的数据，非常惊心：温州二手房价下跌幅度48.4%。 数据来源：公开信息，仅供参考 依然排全国第一，只不过变成了倒数第一。这也是温州楼市39年来的最大跌幅。 具体均价从高点的2.8万/平，跌到低点的1.4万/平，一个长三角二线城市的房价直接腰斩，这个数字是真的吗？ 如果是，温州楼市到底发生了什么？又是哪些因素导致的？ 这些去之前的疑惑，在我踏上前往温州的高铁后，逐渐有了清晰的答案…… 温州南站附近实景拍摄 亲身 感受下来，现实的确如此。 ...