Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a silent adjustment, with more cities showing declining prices than those with increases, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3] - Government interventions to stimulate the housing market are increasing, with over 100 cities implementing more than 300 regulatory measures since the beginning of 2023 [3] - There is a growing sentiment among investors to hold cash rather than purchase property, as the market shows signs of potential further decline [6][8] Market Trends - In June, the number of cities with rising new home prices was 37, while 45 cities saw declines, highlighting a broader trend of price reductions [1] - The second-hand housing market is particularly weak, with only 8 cities experiencing price increases, while 91 cities reported declines [1] - The total number of second-hand homes listed in 13 major cities has surged to 1.99 million, a 25% increase from the beginning of the year [1] Government Policies - More than 100 cities have introduced over 300 housing market policies in 2023, with over 20 cities lifting strict purchase and sale restrictions [3] - Mortgage rates have decreased from 4.6% to below 4%, making borrowing more attractive for potential homebuyers [3] Consumer Behavior - There is confusion among potential buyers regarding whether to invest in real estate or keep cash in the bank, with suggestions leaning towards saving for future opportunities [4][6] - The aging population and changing societal norms are expected to reduce the demand for new homes, as younger generations may inherit properties rather than purchase new ones [7] - The traditional "buy high, sell higher" mentality among investors is fading, leading to increased pressure on home prices as speculative buying diminishes [7] Future Outlook - The real estate market is likely to continue facing downward pressure, with an oversupply of properties and a decline in both first-time and upgrade buyers [9]

中国商报（记者 周子荑）在刚刚过去的国庆中秋假期中，楼市整体表现平淡，新房、二手房都同比有所降温。这一表现背后，是消费者购房态度谨慎、假 期出游人数创新高、去年同期房屋交易基数较高等因素。而受到利好楼市政策和开发商大力促销等影响，部分核心城市项目仍表现优异。展望后市，第四季 度楼市成交表现预计会好于第三季度。 10月1日，在内蒙古呼和浩特市一处新楼盘内，民众利用假期时间前来看房，楼盘售楼部也推出多种让利吸引消费者。（图片由CNSPHOTO提供） "买卖双方积极性都不高" "今年国庆中秋假期门店的房屋带看和成交情况与平时差不多。"在北京市丰台区某链家门店，一位经纪人刘利（化名）向中国商报记者介绍，他所在的门店 平均每天带看量大约有三四拨，整个假期成交了两三套，和平日差不多。据透露，其所在片区几个门店表现相差不大，较为平淡。 北京市西城区一位链家经纪人李炎（化名）也向中国商报记者介绍，当前客户的观望心态仍比较重，即使看房也不着急购买，而是和业主来回谈价格。目前 的房地产市场仍是买方市场。 李炎进一步表示，他所在的门店10月1日—3日经纪人放假3天，有一名值班人员在岗。这几天门店带看量很少，假期中间几天门店有一些带 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant "volume and price decline" adjustment, with 50 out of 70 major cities experiencing month-on-month price drops as of August, an increase from 40 cities in July [1] - The sales volume of new residential properties in 100 cities has plummeted by 44% year-on-year, totaling only 8.5 billion square meters in the first eight months of 2022 [3] - Local governments have implemented over 700 measures to stimulate the housing market, a significant increase of 280 measures compared to the previous year, but the effectiveness of these policies has been limited [3] Market Conditions - The sales area in first and second-tier cities has decreased by 37%, while third and fourth-tier cities have seen a 25% decline [3] - Major state-owned banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with the three-year fixed deposit rate dropping by 15 basis points to a low of 2.6% [3] Expert Recommendations - Experts suggest that families with 1 million in cash should consider investing in core urban properties in first and second-tier cities for long-term appreciation potential [4] - For those with existing mortgage loans, experts recommend using cash to pay off loans to alleviate monthly repayment pressure [4] Critique of Expert Advice - The suggestion to purchase core urban properties is impractical given current market conditions, as 1 million may not even cover the down payment [6] - Many families with 1 million in cash likely already have low-interest mortgages, making the advice to pay off loans less relevant [6] Financial Strategy - Despite declining bank deposit rates, a conservative three-year fixed deposit can yield 26,000 annually at a 2.6% return, which is more stable compared to the risks of investing in real estate [8] - Maintaining cash reserves provides a safety net against uncertainties such as unemployment and health crises, allowing for more strategic investment decisions when the market stabilizes [8]

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant price declines, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, with some areas seeing drops of over 40% [1][5][12] - The decline in housing prices is attributed to several factors, including demographic changes, excessive household leverage, supply-demand imbalances, and a retreat of speculative investment [4][6][11] Demographic Changes - China's population has entered a phase of negative growth, with a 5.7% year-on-year decrease in newborns as of Q1 2025, and the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older has risen to 19.8% [4][5] - The demand for new housing is weakening, especially in cities experiencing population outflows, where housing prices are declining more sharply [5] Household Leverage - As of Q2 2025, the household leverage ratio in China reached 75.3%, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning level of 60%, indicating that most families have exhausted their purchasing power [6] Supply-Demand Imbalance - As of May 2025, the inventory of commercial housing in China reached 580 million square meters, with a depletion cycle exceeding 24 months, far above the healthy standard of 12 to 18 months [6] - Developers are resorting to price cuts to recover cash flow, with many properties being sold at significant discounts [6] Retreat of Speculative Investment - The proportion of investment-driven purchases has dropped from approximately 30% in 2018 to 12.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating a significant withdrawal of speculative capital from the real estate market [6][11] Strategies for Homeowners - Homeowners facing "down payment loss" should consider holding onto their properties if they can manage monthly payments, as the residential nature of real estate remains unchanged despite market fluctuations [7] - If repayment pressure increases, homeowners are advised to negotiate with banks for loan adjustments, such as extending loan terms or switching to lower interest rate products [8] Opportunities for Buyers - Current market conditions may present favorable opportunities for potential buyers to negotiate better terms, with average transaction prices for second-hand homes showing a 15% gap from listing prices [9] - Buyers are encouraged to focus on long-term growth potential in economically robust cities rather than short-term price fluctuations [10] Industry Adaptation - Real estate developers must shift from high-turnover, high-leverage models to more refined and differentiated product strategies, focusing on quality and user experience [11] - Diversifying business operations beyond residential sales, such as property management and community services, is becoming essential for sustaining growth [11] Market Trends - The housing market is transitioning from being viewed solely as an investment to being recognized for its consumption value, emphasizing the importance of meeting residential needs over speculative gains [12]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China has entered a long-term adjustment phase since 2022, with average housing prices dropping over 30%, and some cities experiencing declines exceeding 50% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The adjustment began with second and third-tier cities like Tianjin, Zhengzhou, and Wuhan, followed by first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen joining the trend [1]. - The overall market adjustment is deemed inevitable despite various government policies aimed at stimulating the market [1]. Group 2: Challenges for Multi-Property Owners - Households owning multiple properties face significant challenges, with over 45% of such families in China [3]. - Difficulty in selling second-hand properties has increased, attributed to rising listings and shrinking demand, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [5]. - The economic downturn has resulted in reduced household incomes, making it harder for families to afford high property prices, causing many to postpone buying plans [5]. Group 3: Financial Pressures - Monthly mortgage pressures are intensifying for multi-property owners, as many are experiencing declining incomes while maintaining high mortgage payments [6][8]. - An example is provided of a property owner whose property value has dropped significantly, yet they continue to face the same mortgage payment due to fixed-rate contracts [8]. Group 4: Rising Holding Costs - The costs associated with maintaining multiple properties are increasing, including property management fees and other related expenses, which are expected to rise annually due to inflation [10]. - Families with multiple properties are feeling the strain of these rising costs, which adds to their financial burden [10]. Group 5: Rental Market Challenges - The strategy of "renting to pay mortgages" is becoming increasingly difficult, especially in lower-tier cities where rental demand is weak due to population outflows [12]. - In major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, rental prices are also declining, making it challenging for property owners to rely on rental income to cover mortgage payments [12]. - The current market conditions suggest that property owners should consider selling excess properties while prices are still relatively high to secure cash [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is showing signs of distress, with a significant increase in available listings and a decline in prices, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential risks for the broader housing market [3][6][10] Market Activity - In July, the transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shanghai was 16,900 units, which, while lower than previous highs, did not fall below the psychological threshold of 15,000 units, suggesting that there are still buyers in the market [4] - However, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale reached 223,000 units, creating substantial selling pressure [5] Price Trends - The average price of second-hand homes in Shanghai has been declining, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% in May and June, followed by a more significant drop of 1.82% in July, marking three consecutive months of price declines [5][6] Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing "wait and see" attitude among potential buyers, with many holding off on purchases in hopes of further price reductions, which is contributing to a lack of confidence in the market [3][8] - The sentiment is exacerbated by a high supply of listings, leading to increased competition among sellers, who are forced to lower prices to attract buyers [5][7] Broader Implications - The challenges faced by the Shanghai market are reflective of broader trends in the national real estate market, where supply is outpacing demand due to factors such as population stagnation and oversupply in certain areas [6][9] - The stability of the Shanghai market is crucial, as it serves as a benchmark for the national housing market; if Shanghai cannot stabilize, it could lead to widespread negative impacts on other cities [9][10] Government Response - The government has been implementing various measures to support the market, including lowering down payments and interest rates, aiming to prevent a more severe downturn [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, leading to challenges for families as their wealth tied to property diminishes and future uncertainties loom [1] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Families - Challenge 1: Family asset depreciation and liquidity issues. Property values are declining, with a notable drop in sales prices across major cities, leading to a potential 3% annual asset shrinkage for homeowners [2] - Challenge 2: Aging population necessitating home modifications. With over 300 million people aged 60 and above in China, families face the urgent need for home renovations to accommodate elderly care, which can cost between 120,000 to 150,000 yuan [3][5] - Challenge 3: Increased employment and income uncertainty, coupled with repayment pressures. The real estate sector's downturn affects over 100 related industries, leading to job losses and financial strain for families managing multiple loans [4] Group 2: Recommendations for Families - Optimize asset allocation by reducing reliance on real estate and increasing financial asset holdings to enhance liquidity and risk resilience [9] - Plan for elderly care needs proactively, including understanding local subsidy policies for home modifications to alleviate financial burdens [9] - Maintain stable cash flow by minimizing unnecessary expenses and seeking additional income sources to navigate market uncertainties effectively [9]

还记得2017年，马云说房子未来不值钱，很多人一笑而过，那时候楼市正火，谁会把这句话当真呢，如今8年过去了，走进 2025年下半年，这句话似乎已经应验了。 如果你去东北，那么鹤岗、阜新等地几万元就能买套房，而深圳、上海等一线城市房价普遍下跌30%左右，连深圳南山科 技园的次新房价格都遭遇腰斩，这些现象让不少人开始相信，有些话能经得住时间的考验。 最根本的变化，是供需关系的彻底逆转，最新数据显示，全国住房总量已经超过6亿栋，足够容纳30亿人居住，远超我国14 亿人口的实际需求。 人口结构的变化更让人揪心，00后比90后整整少了4700万人，00-10后比80-90后少了1.1亿人，随着"421"家庭结构成为主 流，住房需求正在结构性收缩。 与此同时，城镇化率已接近70%，新增购房需求大幅减少，2026年全国小学生预计减少263万人，需求端持续萎缩已成定 局。想在家创业的人，加我 薇 信 61 999 0137 政策风向也在转变，2025年，楼市正经历根本性调整，最核心的变化是保障房和商品房双轨制的建立。 计划五年内推出600万套保障房，北京等地的保障房租金已低于市场价30%，这对商品房需求形成明显分流。 期房销 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment period, which is expected to last 3-5 years, and that those hoping to profit from real estate by 2025 may be disappointed [1][4] - Wang Shi emphasizes that the current situation in China is not akin to Japan's past real estate bubble, citing the country's large population and the availability of policy tools to support the market [3][4] - The market is currently divided, with new home sales declining by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, while second-hand home sales have increased by 11% [5][6] Group 2 - The real estate market is experiencing a significant inventory issue, with 7.7 billion square meters of unsold inventory putting pressure on the industry [5] - First-tier cities are expected to stabilize first, with inventory turnover periods shrinking to under 8 months, while second-tier cities face longer turnover periods of up to 18 months [6] - Buyers are facing stricter loan approvals, with some experiencing significant reductions in loan amounts, leading to increased financial pressure [7][8] Group 3 - The market is characterized by a significant number of price reductions, with some properties seeing drastic price drops as investors offload assets due to financial strain [5][8] - There is a growing sentiment that housing should be viewed as a place to live rather than an investment, indicating a shift in market psychology [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent auction of a luxury property in Shenzhen reflects the harsh realities of the real estate market, with significant price drops indicating a broader market adjustment [2][5][18]. Property Auction Details - A 398㎡ luxury apartment in the Double Seal Garden Phase III was auctioned on August 1, with a final price of 58.3 million yuan, significantly lower than its previous listing price of 65 million yuan [2][3][5]. - The auction started at 32.35 million yuan and saw 80 rounds of bidding, resulting in a premium rate of 80% over the starting price [3][5]. - The property was previously registered at a price of 45 million yuan in November 2020, indicating a decline in value since its initial purchase [10][11]. Market Context - The Double Seal Garden area is known for its high market recognition and unique coastal resources, yet the recent auction price suggests a decline in perceived value [6][18]. - Historical data shows that the average selling price for similar properties peaked at approximately 110 million yuan in early 2023, but has since dropped by at least 33% [17][18]. - The luxury market is experiencing a significant price adjustment, with the auction price being lower than the outstanding mortgage debt of 60 million yuan on the property [15][25]. Developer Background - The property auction is linked to a loan dispute involving Huizhou Can Dong Industrial Co., a subsidiary of the well-known real estate developer, which has faced financial difficulties since 2022 [25][26]. - The developer, known for its optimistic predictions about the real estate market, has seen a drastic decline in its fortunes, with multiple projects facing delays and financial constraints [28][30]. Market Trends - The overall real estate market in Shenzhen has shown signs of recovery since September 2022, with some segments experiencing price stabilization and increased transaction volumes [30][33]. - However, the luxury segment, particularly in the peripheral areas, continues to face challenges, with prices unlikely to return to the highs seen between 2015 and 2020 [33].