Core Insights - The domestic real estate market is undergoing a profound adjustment, with severity exceeding expectations, reflecting a culmination of accumulated contradictions over the years. This aligns with predictions made by billionaire Li Ka-shing regarding a significant reshuffling of housing prices in the coming years [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - Real estate companies are facing increasing operational difficulties, with 21 fewer companies achieving over 100 billion yuan in sales in 2022 and 28 fewer companies exceeding 10 billion yuan. Nearly 400 real estate firms have filed for bankruptcy this year, indicating a sharp decline in market demand for housing [3] - The demand for housing loans remains persistently low, with a reduction of 115.6 billion yuan in long-term loans (primarily mortgages) in April, marking a rare negative growth. Although there was a rebound in May with an increase of 168.4 billion yuan, the overall demand remains at historical lows, reflecting a lack of confidence in the market [3][4] Group 2: Market Adjustments - The pace of market adjustment has accelerated since March 2023, with 54 cities experiencing a month-on-month decline in new home prices and 83 cities in second-hand home prices in May. The number of cities with both new and second-hand home price declines reached 44, indicating a widespread market downturn [4] - The supply of second-hand homes has significantly outstripped demand, with a surge in listings since April. Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou have seen second-hand home listings exceed tens of thousands, with Shanghai alone reaching 200,000 listings. This oversupply is driven by speculators selling off properties due to a lack of confidence in future market conditions [5] Group 3: Impact on Stakeholders - The current market conditions pose significant challenges for three groups: speculators facing pressure to sell at high prices, real estate professionals at risk of unemployment or needing to change careers, and banks experiencing a decline in mortgage demand, which could impact their performance and introduce potential financial risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a new adjustment cycle since the relaxation of pandemic controls in 2023, driven by long-accumulated factors, with significant declines in new home transactions and a surge in second-hand home listings [1][3]. Market Trends - From March 2023, both the transaction volume and area of new homes have decreased, while the second-hand housing market has seen a dramatic increase in listings, with cities like Chengdu and Chongqing surpassing 200,000 listings and Shanghai exceeding 180,000 by the end of June [1]. - By July, the second-hand housing price index for 100 cities showed a year-on-year decline in 96 cities, indicating a widespread downturn in the market [1]. Government Response - In response to falling housing prices, local governments have implemented various "market rescue" policies, including relaxing purchase and sale restrictions in many second and third-tier cities, reducing mortgage rates below 4%, and increasing housing fund loan limits to alleviate financial pressure on first-time buyers [1]. - The introduction of the "recognize house but not loan" policy aims to stimulate demand for improved housing, although the effectiveness of these measures has been limited [1]. Economic Impact - The decline in housing prices is attributed to two main factors: the impact of the pandemic leading to reduced incomes and job losses, which have diminished purchasing power, and the ongoing decrease in property values since the second half of 2021, eroding the "wealth effect" associated with real estate [3]. - The suggestion to utilize one-third of the 15 trillion yuan in household savings to stimulate real estate purchases and related consumption has sparked controversy, as many view these savings as essential for financial security [4]. Market Sentiment - Public sentiment reflects skepticism about the real estate market's future, with a common perception that the speculative nature of real estate investment is nearing its end, as indicated by a remark from a typical consumer highlighting the end of the "hot potato" game in real estate [6]. - Experts suggest that the government's recent policies aim to prevent drastic fluctuations in the market and achieve a "soft landing," but the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with the potential for continued adjustments in the housing market [6].

Core Insights - The article indicates a significant downturn in the real estate market for 2024, driven by recent government signals and current market conditions [2] - The government's plan to provide 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years highlights a shift towards supporting low-income groups while allowing market forces to dictate housing prices [2] Group 1: Market Trends - Trend 1: The range of cities experiencing falling housing prices is expanding, with declines observed in second-tier cities and even in major first-tier cities like Shanghai, where prices have dropped from over 100,000 yuan per square meter to around 70,000 yuan [2] - Trend 2: Old residential areas, referred to as "old and broken," are becoming less attractive to high-net-worth individuals, and the shift in government policy towards affordable housing is further squeezing their market space [4] - Trend 3: High-rise residential buildings face significant depreciation risks due to high maintenance costs and various uncertainties, making them less appealing compared to multi-story residences [4] Group 2: Government Policy Impact - The government's recent guidance on affordable housing construction reflects a strategic move to provide better housing options for middle and low-income families, effectively reducing their purchasing costs [2] - The extensive real estate regulatory measures taken this year, totaling over 500, have failed to halt the market's downward trend, indicating that external interventions are unlikely to reverse the ongoing adjustments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with both suburban and urban properties seeing price declines, leading many homeowners to sell at lower prices despite expert advice against it [1] Group 1: Reasons for Price Decline - Homeowners are forced to sell at lower prices due to financial strain, particularly those who purchased properties at high prices during 2021-2022 when mortgage rates were significantly higher [3] - Many homeowners are looking to upgrade to newer properties with better designs and higher usable space, as current new homes offer better layouts and amenities compared to older properties [4][5][8] - A panic selling trend is emerging, where homeowners are lowering prices in response to others doing the same, leading to a broader decline in property values across neighborhoods [9][10] Group 2: Impact of Financing Conditions - Stricter bank lending policies are exacerbating the real estate downturn, making it difficult for even affluent individuals to secure loans, which further reduces market liquidity [11][12] - The disparity in loan accessibility creates a "Matthew effect," where only those who do not need loans can obtain them, leaving regular homebuyers struggling to secure financing [12] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to undergo a prolonged adjustment period, with a shift towards a "quality over quantity" approach, where only high-quality properties will withstand market fluctuations [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market is undergoing adjustments, but a collapse is not imminent. New home prices have not yet bottomed out, and second-hand homes are currently 25%-40% cheaper than new homes, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in first-tier cities and 0.4% in second and third-tier cities [1][3]. - Historical reference indicates that while the Chinese real estate market is currently in a downturn, similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s, recovery is possible after a period of adjustment [3]. Group 2 - Retail investors often make the mistake of solely focusing on K-line charts, which can lead to losses as institutional investors may manipulate the market. The article highlights that last year, a stock surged by 130%, but its price fluctuated significantly, causing many retail investors to miss out [4][6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional trading patterns to avoid being misled. Key indicators include the density of orange bars (indicating institutional activity) and blue circles (indicating intentional price drops to shake out retail investors) [6][8]. Group 3 - The article advises investors to focus on two key points: asset rotation is a common occurrence, and institutional operations often precede K-line movements. Utilizing quantitative data to uncover the truth behind market movements can help prevent the regret of selling before a price increase [10].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The current new home prices have not yet reached the bottom, with second-hand home prices generally 25% to 40% lower than new homes, and continuing to decline. In April, first-tier cities saw a 0.2% month-on-month decrease in second-hand home prices, while second and third-tier cities experienced a 0.4% decline [1][3] - Concerns about a prolonged downturn similar to Japan's are unfounded, as China's real estate market is currently in an adjustment phase following rapid growth from 2015 to 2017. This adjustment does not equate to a market collapse, as cyclical recovery is expected [3] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - Both the stock and real estate markets exhibit cyclical behavior, with bull markets often emerging during periods of market despair. Despite recent index declines, underlying support mechanisms remain [4] - The presence of institutional investors in stocks does not guarantee profitability for retail investors, as institutional strategies may shift with market conditions. The focus should be on the trading behavior of institutions rather than mere participation [6] Group 3: Understanding Institutional Trading - Institutional trading is characterized by large volumes and discreet operations, making it essential to utilize quantitative analysis to uncover their true actions, such as accumulation or distribution of shares [8] - Indicators such as the density of orange bars (indicating active institutional trading) and blue circles (indicating potential washout tactics) can provide insights into institutional strategies. For instance, repeated downward movements may signal preparation for a significant upward movement [10][13] Group 4: Identifying Market Signals - To determine the end of a washout phase, it is crucial to analyze two sets of data: a shift from blue candlesticks to blue bars indicates a return of previously sold funds, while dense orange bars suggest concentrated institutional holdings [13] - Retail investors often face losses due to a lack of understanding of institutional trading behaviors. By interpreting data accurately, investors can avoid being shaken out of positions during volatile periods [15]

Market Sentiment - The real estate market has undergone three years of adjustment, leading to differing opinions on whether selling properties now is wise or shortsighted [1] - Opponents argue that selling now would result in guaranteed losses, asserting that the market has bottomed out and that external factors like population decline do not significantly impact property prices [3] - Proponents believe that property prices may continue to decline, and selling now could prevent larger losses, citing examples of individuals who have already incurred significant financial losses by waiting too long to sell [4] Expert Insights - Experts suggest that selling a property should be a comprehensive decision; for those in urgent need of cash, selling may not be the best option, and property collateralization could be a more prudent choice [6] - For individuals planning to upgrade to a larger home, selling before buying is recommended to avoid financial pressure and potential losses from an unsold property [7] - In cases of high mortgage pressure due to job loss or reduced income, selling may be a necessary step to clear debt and navigate financial difficulties [8] Industry Perspective - The current real estate market is undergoing profound changes, with significant inventory pressure and the need for new growth drivers to stabilize the market [10] - Historical precedents from Japan and the U.S. illustrate the potential long-term impacts of real estate market corrections, emphasizing the importance of adapting to policy changes and market dynamics [11] - The future of the real estate market suggests a shift towards viewing properties primarily as places to live rather than investment vehicles, with a recommendation to liquidate underperforming assets [11][13]

Policy Changes - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant fluctuations due to a series of favorable policies, including relaxed purchase and sale restrictions, historical lows in mortgage rates, and reduced down payment requirements [1] - Major cities have implemented policies such as "recognizing the house, not the loan," which were previously unimaginable [1] Market Response - Despite the favorable policies, the market remains unresponsive, with declining sales figures and increasing inventory levels [1] - Major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden are facing severe financial difficulties, leading to project delays and an increase in unfinished buildings [1] Housing Supply and Demand - The number of unsold homes in China is approaching 120 million, sufficient to accommodate 300 to 400 million people, while 14 million new homes are added to the market annually, indicating a supply surplus [5] - Urbanization rates are nearing 70%, and demographic trends such as aging populations and declining birth rates are expected to further impact housing demand [5] Future Price Predictions - Predictions suggest that housing prices in first-tier cities will stabilize and align more closely with income levels, avoiding significant increases or decreases [6] - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities may experience a "cabbage price" scenario due to population outflow and oversupply, leading to a market characterized by "price without market" [8] Shift in Market Dynamics - The introduction of affordable housing projects is expected to disrupt the commodity housing market, shifting the focus back to housing as a necessity rather than an investment vehicle [6] - The changing landscape suggests that housing will return to its primary function as a place to live, rather than a speculative asset [8] Investment Considerations - As housing becomes more accessible, new investment strategies may emerge, prompting individuals to consider alternatives such as stocks, mutual funds, or entrepreneurship [8]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has experienced a significant downturn since 2022, leading to financial distress for families holding multiple properties as property values continue to decline and the market shows no signs of recovery [1][3][8] Market Trends - Starting in 2022, cities like Tianjin, Zhengzhou, and Shijiazhuang saw initial declines in property prices, which extended to first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen by 2023 [3] - As of January 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities in China was 14,130 yuan per square meter, marking a 0.51% month-on-month decline and a continuous drop for 30 months [3] - In certain third and fourth-tier cities around Beijing, property prices have plummeted by as much as 50% [3] Market Supply and Demand - The second-hand housing market is currently oversaturated, with a surge in listings since 2024; for instance, Chongqing has nearly 340,000 listings, while cities like Wuhan, Hefei, and Xi'an have close to 200,000 each [4] - The oversupply has made it difficult for homeowners to sell their properties, even at reduced prices, leading to a situation where properties are seen as burdens rather than assets [4] Financial Pressures - Many families with multiple properties are facing increased financial strain due to rising costs associated with property maintenance, such as property fees and utilities, alongside potential mortgage obligations [6] - The impending implementation of property taxes in 60 cities, starting from 2024, is expected to further escalate the holding costs for families with multiple properties [6] Changing Rental Market Dynamics - The "rent-to-pay mortgage" strategy has become increasingly unviable, especially in third and fourth-tier cities where demand has plummeted, leading to high vacancy rates and low rental income [6] - In first and second-tier cities, despite relatively higher demand, economic conditions have led to reduced job opportunities and increased living costs, causing a decline in rental prices; for example, rental prices in Shanghai have dropped from 4,500 yuan to 3,800 yuan for a 40 square meter apartment [6] Asset Management Challenges - Approximately 45% of households in China own two or more properties, and these families are now facing significant challenges including asset depreciation, difficulties in liquidating properties, and increased holding pressures [8] - In light of the current market conditions, families are advised to reassess their asset allocations and consider selling excess properties to optimize their financial positions [8]

Group 1 - The number of new residential projects in Ganzhou's main urban area has significantly decreased, with only 2 new projects launched in Q1 2025 compared to 5 in the same period last year [1][3] - The reduction in new projects is attributed to a significant decrease in land auctions, which are the primary source of new housing supply, leading to a scarcity of development land [3][4] - Developers are now more cautious in acquiring land, focusing on core urban areas, and the overall land supply has slowed down, impacting the number of new housing projects [3][6] Group 2 - As of 2025, no residential land has been officially auctioned in Ganzhou's main urban area, indicating a tightening supply of new projects in the near future [4][6] - Upcoming new projects are limited, with only a few known to be launching soon, such as the fourth-generation residential project Zhangjiang Shangjing and the villa project Banshan Yunshu [6] - Current homebuyers in Ganzhou are more discerning, prioritizing quality, community environment, property services, and supporting facilities, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [8]