Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: 0575-85226759 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the imported inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary of Different Oils 3.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey institutions show that Malaysia's palm oil export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,422, the basis is 318, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. [2] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) will fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300. [2] 3.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the report is slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,032, the basis is -10, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 46%. [3] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil (P2605) will fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [3] 3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report data as above, slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,980, the basis is 836, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. [4] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) will fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400. [4] 4. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil tremor season. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Oil prices are at a historically high level, domestic oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Daily Views on Different Oils - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, but subsequent supply pressure may ease as it enters the production - reduction season. The current export data for Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase. - Basis: The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, with a basis of 282. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory was 1020000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. - Main positions: The long positions of the main contract have increased. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. - Basis: The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, with a basis of - 64. - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory was 736000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. - Main positions: The long positions of the main contract have increased. - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [3] - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and supply pressure will ease in the production - reduction season. - Basis: The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, with a basis of 837. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory was 250000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. - Main positions: The short positions of the main contract have decreased. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] 3.2 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is also a palm oil tremor season. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically. The domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] 3.3 Supply and Demand Data (Graphs) - **Supply**: There are graphs showing data on import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil - mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats from 2015 - 2025 [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - **Demand**: There are graphs showing data on soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption from 2015 - 2025 [13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - For soybean oil, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300 for Y2605; for palm oil, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300 for P2605; for rapeseed oil, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400 for OI2605 [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 356, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2] - **Market trend**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the soybean oil situation, with the MPOB report data and the change in January export data and supply pressure [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,014, with a basis of 0, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3] - **Market trend**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract increased [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils in terms of the MPOB report and palm oil supply situation [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,140, with a basis of 1,004, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4] - **Market trend**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased [4] 3.4 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to rise**: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Likely to fall**: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has continued to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main logic**: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and consolidating, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the month - end inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,640, with a basis of 358, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,196, with a basis of - 44, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,298, with a basis of 918, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [4] - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is in a state of shock and consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply of domestic oils and fats is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently centers around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8364, with a basis of 426, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract have decreased. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Expectations**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the subsequent supply pressure will decrease. The assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8580, with a basis of - 2, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The assessment is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. This is a bearish factor [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of palm oil's main contract have increased. This is a bearish factor [3]. - **Expectations**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease. The assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9806, with a basis of 978, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of rapeseed oil's main contract have increased. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Expectations**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Bearish factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

证券代码：839979 每日观点 油脂早报 2026-01-14投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕12月产量环比减少5.46%至182.98万吨，出口环比增加 8.55%至131.65万吨，月末库存环比增加7.59%至305.06万吨。报告整体稍偏空，库存数据超预期。目前 船调机构显示1月目前马棕出口数据环比增加29%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8320，基差334，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：1月9日豆油商业库存102万吨，前108万吨，环比-6万吨，同比+14.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：7800-8200 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号: F0283029 [1] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 [1] - Contact Number: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Report Core View - The prices of oils and fats are in a range - bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are stalemated, causing the export of new US soybeans to be frustrated and prices to be under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 4: Daily View on Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Rating: Neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8320, with a basis of 408, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Bullish [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year. Rating: Bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. Rating: Bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil will enter the production - increase season, and the supply will increase. Rating: Neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8470, with a basis of 30, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Neutral [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year. Rating: Bullish [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. Rating: Bullish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil in terms of the MPOB report. Palm oil will enter the production - increase season, and the supply will increase. Rating: Neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10032, with a basis of 902, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Bullish [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year. Rating: Bearish [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. Rating: Bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4] Group 5: Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish Factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Group 6: Supply and Demand Charts - Supply: Imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total oil and fat inventory [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand: Soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the month-end inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production reduction season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 338, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply will increase as it enters the production increase season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,600, with a basis of -16, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The same MPOB report situation, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production increase season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,800, with a basis of 713, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Tensions in Sino - US relations have affected US soybean exports and pressured prices. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. Overall, the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content A. Daily Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current shipping survey data shows a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month, and the subsequent production - reduction season will ease supply pressure [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 382, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but the subsequent period is the production - increase season, so palm oil supply will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,540, with a basis of 28, indicating a slightly higher spot price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamentals: Similar to palm oil, with an expected increase in palm oil supply in the subsequent production - increase season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,820, with a basis of 780, indicating a significantly higher spot price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4]. B. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also a "palm oil tremor season" (the specific meaning of this term is not clear from the report) [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is El Niño weather. The current situation has both positive and negative factors, with positive factors including the tight supply of US soybeans with a low inventory-to-sales ratio, and negative factors such as the relatively high historical price of oils and fats, continuous accumulation of domestic oil inventories, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of related oils [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease as it enters the减产 season [2] - **Basis**: The basis is 412, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is a negative factor [2] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, which is a positive factor [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7600 - 8000 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the增产 season [3] - **Basis**: The basis is 6, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is a positive factor [3] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, which is a positive factor [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the增产 season [4] - **Basis**: The basis is 596, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is a negative factor [4] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, which is a negative factor [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, domestic oil inventories are continuously accumulating, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5]