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油脂油料产业日报-20251022
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 11:59
油脂油料产业日报 2025/10/22 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...
油脂油料产业日报-20251017
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 10:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,500 ringgit. After repeated oscillations, it's necessary to observe if it can effectively stand above 4,500 ringgit supported by export data. Next week, the release of export and production data will impact the market. If the fundamentals are bullish, the futures may rise to 4,650 ringgit; otherwise, a break below 4,500 ringgit will open a new downward space [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in an oscillating pattern, mainly fluctuating around the 60 - day moving average, with obvious resistance from the 40 - day moving average. Concerned about the lack of an upward trend in Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil will continue to oscillate. If it fails to break through the resistance around 9,400 yuan, there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average and whether Malaysian palm oil can stand above 4,500 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Yesterday, CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rose due to active domestic soybean crushing in the US and reduced US soybean oil inventory, which supported the domestic oil market. Currently, the cost of imported soybeans is high, and oil mills are operating at a loss. Chinese buyers have not locked in 8 - 9 million tons of Brazilian soybeans before the new crop is available early next year due to high premiums, which may limit the supply in the first quarter and prompt traders to support prices. However, the current supply of soybean oil in factories is sufficient while market demand is weak. With both bullish and bearish factors, the short - term fluctuation of Dalian soybean oil is limited. The January contract is trading above 8,200 yuan, and if CBOT soybeans continue to rise, the January contract may face resistance around 8,500 yuan [4]. Bean Meal - Dalian bean meal contract 01 saw a decline with increased positions. Rumors of imported soybean auctions and position adjustments by some institutions in response to Sino - US negotiations led to foreign investors increasing short positions and reducing long positions, with a net short increase of over 40,000 lots in a single day. The short - term main contract of Dalian bean meal stabilized after falling to the range of 2,850 - 2,880 yuan/ton and is waiting for clear information. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and the near - month basis rebounded locally by 10 - 20 yuan. Some traders in East and South China saw prices fall below 2,900 yuan/ton, stimulating feed mills and middlemen with low inventories to replenish stocks, and overall trading volume increased slightly. The short - term spot price will range from 2,850 to 3,100 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 9,308 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change; palm oil 05 is at 9,264 yuan/ton with a 0.06% change; palm oil 09 is at 8,946 yuan/ton with a - 0.11% change; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,559 ringgit/ton with a 0.86% change; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9,210 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is at - 122 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease; POGO is at 522.239 US dollars/ton with a - 1.168 - dollar decrease; international毛豆 - 毛棕 is at 29.5 US dollars/ton with a 24.62 - dollar increase [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,256 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% change; soybean oil 05 is at 8,042 yuan/ton with a - 1.06% change; soybean oil 09 is at 7,946 yuan/ton with a - 0.7% change; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 50.85 cents/pound with a 0.04% change; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,500 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis is at 204 yuan/ton with a 26 - yuan increase; BOHO (weekly) is at 48.482 US dollars/barrel with a - 13.5728 - dollar decrease; domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil is at - 620 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [14]. - **Oil Spreads**: P 1 - 5 is 54 yuan/ton with a - 30 - yuan change; P 5 - 9 is 302 yuan/ton with a - 26 - yuan change; P 9 - 1 is - 356 yuan/ton with a 56 - yuan change; Y 1 - 5 is 194 yuan/ton with a - 8 - yuan change; Y 5 - 9 is 86 yuan/ton with a 8 - yuan change; Y 9 - 1 is - 280 yuan/ton with no change; OI 1 - 5 is 441 yuan/ton with a 13 - yuan change; OI 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton with a - 4 - yuan change; OI 9 - 1 is - 533 yuan/ton with a - 9 - yuan change; Y - P 01 is - 1056 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan change; Y - P 05 is - 1196 yuan/ton with a - 8 - yuan change; Y - P 09 is - 980 yuan/ton with a - 42 - yuan change; Y/M 01 is 2.84 with a 0.39% change; Y/M 05 is 2.9402 with a 0.07% change; Y/M 09 is 2.7957 with a 0.05% change; OI/RM 01 is 4.2026 with a - 0.27% change; OI/RM 05 is 4.1171 with a - 0.45% change; OI/RM 09 is 3.9257 with a - 0.36% change [5]. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: Bean meal 01 is at 2,868 yuan with a - 39 - yuan change and a - 1.34% change; bean meal 05 is at 2,713 yuan with a - 29 - yuan change and a - 1.06% change; bean meal 09 is at 2,833 yuan with a - 20 - yuan change and a - 0.7% change; rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,306 yuan with a - 58 - yuan change and a - 2.45% change; rapeseed meal 05 is at 2,276 yuan with a - 30 - yuan change and a - 1.3% change; rapeseed meal 09 is at 2,370 yuan with a - 25 - yuan change and a - 1.04% change; CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1,011.75 with no change; the offshore RMB is at 7.1279 with a - 0.0025 change and a - 0.04% change [18]. - **Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 165 yuan with a - 12 - yuan change; M05 - 09 is - 111 yuan with a 2 - yuan change; M09 - 01 is - 54 yuan with a 10 - yuan change; RM01 - 05 is 58 yuan with a - 1 - yuan change; RM05 - 09 is - 89 yuan with a 1 - yuan change; RM09 - 01 is 31 yuan with no change; bean meal Rizhao spot is at 2,950 yuan with a - 30 - yuan change; bean meal Rizhao basis is at 73 yuan with a 10 - yuan change; rapeseed meal Fujian spot is at 2,480 yuan with no change; rapeseed meal Fujian basis is at 116 yuan with a - 7 - yuan change; the spot spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 500 yuan with no change; the futures spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 543 yuan with a - 17 - yuan change [19][21].
油脂油料产业日报-20250912
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 10:51
Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a sideways consolidation, likely to fluctuate between 4,400 - 4,500 ringgit awaiting production and export data. Seasonal production growth and weak export data may pressure the market. If it fails to hold above 4,500 ringgit, there's a risk of a downward breakout [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are also consolidating, following the trend of Malaysian palm oil. If Malaysian palm oil can't stay above 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may break down towards 9,000 yuan due to pre - National Day trading dynamics. Attention should be paid to the 40 - day moving average around 9,200 yuan and the performance of Malaysian palm oil [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestically, sufficient supply and increasing demand coexist. The market is influenced by international related products. The upcoming harvest of US soybeans exerts supply pressure on the international market, affecting domestic soybean oil prices. If the report is better than expected, CBOT soybeans may rise and boost Dalian soybean oil; otherwise, Dalian soybean oil may test the 8,300 - yuan support. After the monthly report is digested, the market may rise due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking [4]. Oilseeds (Bean Meal) - The firm South American soybean premium supports import costs, but news of potential China - US high - level talks in Madrid has emerged. In the short term, the market is a mix of weak current situation and strong expectations. The main contract of Dalian bean meal should be watched for resistance at 3,100 - 3,120 yuan/ton. Spot prices are slowly rising, and attention should be paid to feed companies' restocking in late September [18]. Price Data Oil Futures Price | Futures | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | 9,296 yuan/ton | -0.36% | | | Palm Oil 05 | 9,062 yuan/ton | -0.57% | | | Palm Oil 09 | 9,384 yuan/ton | -0.66% | | | BMD Palm Oil Main | 4,441 ringgit/ton | -0.29% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 01 | 8,322 yuan/ton | -0.29% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 05 | 8,018 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 09 | 8,398 yuan/ton | -0.26% | | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | 51.61 cents/pound | 1.24% | | Oilseed Futures Price | Futures | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3,079 | -9 | -0.29% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2,820 | 11 | 0.39% | | Bean Meal 09 | 3,023 | -8 | -0.26% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,531 | -36 | -1.4% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,406 | -14 | -0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,560 | 10 | 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1,034 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1152 | -0.0025 | -0.04% | Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 216 yuan/ton (up 12), P 5 - 9 is - 332 yuan/ton (up 74), P 9 - 1 is 116 yuan/ton (down 86) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 994 yuan/ton (down 6), Y - P 05 is - 1,088 yuan/ton (down 12), Y - P 09 is - 1,178 yuan/ton (up 6) [5]. - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 279 yuan/ton (up 11), M05 - 09 is - 222 yuan/ton (up 11), M09 - 01 is - 57 yuan/ton (down 22) [20][23]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 147 yuan/ton (up 19), RM05 - 09 is - 130 yuan/ton (up 30), RM09 - 01 is - 17 yuan/ton (down 49) [20][23].
油脂油料产业日报-20250820
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 10:14
Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: August 20, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level volatile consolidation. Due to concerns about production growth and a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month, there is pressure for the futures to fall below 4,500 ringgit and further weaken, with an expected test of the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range for support. After a short - term stabilization, there is a chance to rebound to 4,500 ringgit. In the long term, affected by seasonal production growth and the expected significant inventory increase from August to September, the futures price may decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - **Domestic Market**: The Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level volatile consolidation. After breaking below the 9,500 yuan support, there is pressure for further weakening, with an expected test of the 9,200 yuan platform for support, and strong support at around 9,000 yuan. After the current adjustment, there is a possibility of the futures strengthening again. The long - term upward trend remains good, and it is currently considered a Wave 4 adjustment [3]. Soybean Oil - International crude oil decline due to expected easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about potential changes in the US biodiesel policy have dragged down the vegetable oil market. The expected high yield of US soybeans has also affected domestic oils. In the domestic market, the current downstream demand is not strong, but due to expected increased domestic demand and potential price increases of palm oil during the Indian Diwali festival, the Dalian soybean oil futures may rise after the adjustment, with support for the January contract at around 8,300 yuan [4]. Soybean Meal - The slowdown in the decline of South American soybean premiums and institutional oil - meal arbitrage adjustments support soybean meal. Institutions such as Qiankun and Morgan have increased their long positions by over 10,000 lots, making the short - term trend of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal firm, oscillating around 3,150 yuan. The spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. Feed mills' physical inventories can generally last until the end of September, and the slow purchase progress for December - January shipments leads to a consistent bullish expectation for the long - term soybean meal price. The short - term spot price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 308 | 8 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 256 | - 6 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 52 | - 2 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 320 | - 62 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 348 | 66 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 28 | - 4 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 151 | 5 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 199 | - 27 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 48 | 22 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 1114 | - 46 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1126 | 24 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 1034 | - 48 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6972 | - 0.07% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8854 | 0.99% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.7478 | - 0.35% | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7826 | - 0.3% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8719 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.696 | 0.84% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9554 | - 0.89% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9248 | - 0.9% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 9486 | - 1.06% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | ringgit/ton | 4496 | - 0.55% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 9440 | - 220 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | 20 | 94 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 546.91 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 49.6 | 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8414 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8124 | 0.56% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8442 | 0.1% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | cents/pound | 51.84 | - 2.72% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8430 | - 200 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 104 | - 10 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 55.602 | - 10.9904 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 900 | - 150 | [13] Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3160 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2860 | 16 | 0.56% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3116 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2627 | 23 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2517 | 12 | 0.48% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2667 | - 11 | - 0.41% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1033.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1865 | 0 | 0% | [18] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 300 | - 17 | RM01 - 05 | 110 | 11 | | M05 - 09 | - 256 | 13 | RM05 - 09 | - 150 | 23 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 4 | RM09 - 01 | 40 | - 34 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | - 30 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 140 | - 29 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2550 | - 7 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 54 | - 21 | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 470 | - 30 | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 533 | - 24 | [19][21]
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250819
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:27
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meals: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meals showed a strong and volatile trend. The USDA's August supply - demand report led to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop US soybeans due to a significant reduction in the planting area. The final ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased, and the price of US soybeans was supported during the critical growth period, providing strong support for the import cost of domestic soybean meal [3]. - Oils: Night trading of rapeseed and palm oils closed up, while soybean oil closed slightly down. The MPOB August report indicated that the actual inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than market expectations, and the inventory accumulation was less than expected. Affected by the news of large - scale confiscation of illegal palm plantations in Indonesia, it is expected that oils will show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures showed that the closing price of soybean oil was 8516, down 18 (-0.21%); palm oil was 9584, up 124 (1.31%); rapeseed oil was 9826, up 69 (0.71%); soybean meal was 3155, up 18 (0.57%); rapeseed meal was 2688, up 39 (1.47%); and peanuts were 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios among different varieties and contract months changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil increased from 28 to 32, and the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil increased from - 66 to - 50 [2]. 3.2 International Futures Market - The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4338 ringgit/ton, unchanged; CBOT soybeans were 1043 cents/bushel, down 2 (-0.22%); CBOT US soybean oil was 53 cents/pound, unchanged; and CBOT US soybean meal was 294 dollars/ton, down 3 (-0.92%) [2]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various varieties changed. For example, the price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.46%, and the price of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil increased by 2.88% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads also changed. For example, the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 214, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 540 to - 760 [2]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - Import and crushing profits of different varieties changed. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil increased from - 250 to - 204, and that of near - month US Gulf soybeans decreased from - 93 to - 185 [2]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts for soybean oil increased from 14,840 to 15,310, while the warehouse receipts for palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts remained unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **US Soybean**: As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.91 per bushel, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [3]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [3].
油脂油料产业日报-20250812
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:49
Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Report Date: August 11, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,250 ringgit, awaiting the MPOB report on Monday and August export data. If it effectively holds above 4,250 ringgit and export data is positive, there's an upward trend; otherwise, it may decline to around 4,000 ringgit in the long - term. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are oscillating between 8,900 - 9,000 yuan, waiting for Malaysian palm oil trends. If it gets support, it may stabilize; otherwise, it could fall to 8,500 - 8,600 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil holds above 4,250 ringgit and export data is positive, Dalian palm oil may rise [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Last weekend, the total domestic factory soybean oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons. According to historical data, inventory is nearing its peak and will soon decrease due to increased demand. Spot basis quotes will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term and are expected to rise in the long - term [4]. Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: Spot prices from oil mills are mostly stable, while traders' quotes fluctuated. Domestic soybean meal inventory has been declining, reaching 1.04 million tons in Week 32, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week, a 2.87% drop. In the short - term, near - month contracts are restricted by supply pressure, with prices ranging from 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [16]. Data Summaries Fats and Oils - **Inter - month and Inter - variety Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01 are provided, with price changes detailed in the table [5]. - **Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have different price levels and percentage changes. BMD palm oil and Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil prices are also given, along with relevant basis and spreads [7]. - **Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) and CBOT soybean oil prices are provided, along with Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot price and basis [13]. Oilseeds - **Oilseed Futures Prices**: Futures prices of soybean meal (01, 05, 09), rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB exchange rate are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes [17]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: Inter - month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, are given [18][20].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250801
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 04:00
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weakly volatile. The U.S. soybean is growing well, with a higher-than-expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in U.S. soybean futures prices. However, due to the lack of a substantial agreement between China and the U.S., the logic of a domestic supply gap remains unchanged, and import costs will support the price of Dalian soybean meal [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils closed slightly lower. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month-on-month in July, while exports were weak, strengthening the expectation of inventory accumulation in July and dragging down the recent performance of palm oil. Due to the high level of imported soybeans in China, the supply of domestic soybean oil is sufficient, and the price is low. China's export of soybean oil to India poses a substitution risk, which may put pressure on the demand for palm oil in the origin and cause concerns about future exports. It is expected that oils will be weakly volatile in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8192, 8900, and 9510 respectively, with changes of -48, -82, and -111, and percentage changes of -0.58%, -0.91%, and -3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3000, 2702, and 8844 respectively, with changes of -10, -28, and 26, and percentage changes of -0.33%, -1.03%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil is currently 52, compared to the previous value of 38 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT U.S. soybean oil, and CBOT U.S. soybean meal were 4258 (ringgit/ton), 990 (cents/bushel), 55 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 14, -6, -1, and 2, and percentage changes of 0.33%, -0.58%, -2.42%, and 0.73% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have changed compared to the previous situation. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8370 and 8400 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.48% and -0.47% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads also show differences from the previous values. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 178 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing - **Profitability**: The current import profitability of various varieties has changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -444, compared to the previous value of -355 [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - **Quantities and Changes**: The current quantities of warehouse receipts for various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 0, compared to the previous value of 13,709 [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [2]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS data, Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,163,216 tons, a 9.58% decrease from the same period last month [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250729
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:33
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rate decreased, and the weather forecast indicated potential high - temperature stress in the southwest, supporting the U.S. soybean futures price. The export outlook of U.S. soybeans improved, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. In China, the emphasis on soybean meal reduction and the loose supply pattern led to a decline in the Dalian Commodity Exchange meal futures price. However, due to trade tariff uncertainties, the global soybean - related prices are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, limiting the further decline of soybean meal prices [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. Indonesia's latest fundamental data is favorable, and the expected increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will boost palm oil export demand and support its price. With the support of biodiesel policies in various countries, the medium - and long - term price center of oils is expected to slowly move up [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with declines of - 0.27%, - 1.85%, and - 3.15% respectively. The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased, while the peanut closing price increased by 0.29%. There were changes in spreads and price - to - spreads compared to the previous values [1]. - **International Futures**: In the international futures market, the BMD palm oil price increased by 0.33%, while the CBOT soybean, CBOT U.S. soybean oil, and CBOT U.S. soybean meal prices decreased by - 0.32%, - 0.71%, and - 0.53% respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Basis**: Domestic spot prices of soybean oil in Tianjin and Guangzhou increased slightly, while the 24° palm oil price in Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou decreased. The prices of soybean meal in Nantong and rapeseed meal in Nantong increased, while the price of soybean meal in Dongguan decreased. There were corresponding changes in spot basis [1]. - **Spreads**: The spot spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, showed certain changes [1]. Import and Crushing Profit - Import and crushing profits of different oilseeds and oils, including Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, U.S. West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseeds, changed compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 decreased compared to the same period last month, with a 15.22% decrease according to Amspec and a 9.2% decrease according to ITS [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250725
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons in 2025 [2] - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) anticipates that India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year, with total edible oil imports remaining at 16 million tons in the 2024/25 season ending in October [2] - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year [2] - Night - time trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a decline. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68%, lower than the expected 71%. With possible high - temperature stress in the southwest and improved export prospects, US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, due to the push for soybean meal substitution and a loose supply, Dalian soybean meal futures are weak in the short term [2] - Night - time trading of rapeseed and palm oil showed a slight decline, while soybean oil fluctuated strongly. Positive fundamentals in Indonesia and expected growth in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will support palm oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, with biofuel policies, the central price of edible oils is expected to rise slowly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8166 for soybean oil, 9104 for palm oil, 9492 for rapeseed oil, 3025 for soybean meal, 2671 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 92, 110, 36, - 70, - 78, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 1.22%, - 3.15%, - 2.26%, - 2.84%, and 0.29% [1] - For spreads, the current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 were 52, 44, 53, - 938, 1326, and 388 respectively, compared to previous values of 44, 20, 53, - 920, 1382, and 462 [1] - For ratio - spreads, the current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 were - 34, 270, 343, 1.13, 2.70, and 5141 respectively, compared to previous values of - 21, 314, 337, 1.12, 2.61, and 4979 [1] International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4244 (Malaysian ringgit/ton) for BMD palm oil, 1025 (cents/bushel) for CBOT soybeans, 56 (cents/pound) for CBOT US soybean oil, and 283 (US dollars/ton) for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were 48, 3, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 0.24%, 0.86%, and - 0.84% [1] Domestic Spot Market - The current spot prices of domestic products were 8280 and 8330 for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, 9150 and 9050 for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, 9540 and 9460 for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, with percentage changes of 0.61%, 0.85%, 0.55%, 0.56%, - 0.42%, and - 0.42% respectively [1] - The current spot prices of other products were 2870 and 2890 for Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, 2570 and 2560 for Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, 7600 and 7550 for Linyi and Anyang peanuts, with percentage changes of - 2.05%, - 1.70%, - 3.38%, - 3.40%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - The current spot spreads were - 670 for the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, 1350 for the difference between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and 240 for the difference between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal, compared to previous values of - 670, 1310, and 239 respectively [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month products were - 311 for Malaysian palm oil, - 235 for US Gulf soybeans, - 62 for Brazilian soybeans, 93 for US West soybeans, 696 for Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and 369 for Canadian rapeseeds, compared to previous values of - 297, - 207, - 13, 129, 657, and 402 respectively [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts were 21,695 for soybean oil, 334 for palm oil, 3,487 for rapeseed oil, 40,714 for soybean meal, 0 for rapeseed meal, and 0 for peanuts, compared to previous values of 21,695, 854, 3,487, 41,446, 0, and 0 respectively [1]
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250717
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The protein meal market showed a strong and volatile trend at night. The July USDA report was overall neutral to bearish, and the high soybean good rate in the US continued to pressure the futures price. The domestic supply surplus situation will still limit the upside, and it is expected that the Dalian protein meal will maintain a volatile trend [3]. - The night - trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil rose slightly. The MPOB report was overall neutral to bearish, but high - frequency data showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and a surge in Indian imports. It is expected that palm oil prices will still be supported, and the overall fundamentals of the oil market have limited changes, so it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - The previous closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8042, 8722, and 9470 respectively, with price changes of 30, 14, and 66, and percentage changes of 0.37%, 0.16%, and - 3.15% respectively. The price differences and ratios of various varieties also showed certain changes [2]. International Futures Market - The previous closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4109 (Ringgit/ton), 1020 (cents/bu), 55 (cents/lb), and 283 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 0, 17, 0, and 3, and percentage changes of 0.00%, 1.72%, 0.57%, and 1.14% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - The spot prices of domestic oils and meals showed different trends. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.24% and 0.37% respectively, while the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil decreased by 0.34%. The spot prices of some protein meals were stable [2]. Import and Profit - The import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 414, - 243, - 69, 137, 572, and 419 respectively, showing certain improvements compared to the previous values [2]. Industry Information - From July 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the production increased by 17.06%. India plans to increase domestic crude palm oil production from 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029 and expand the planting area from 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares next year [3]. US Soybean Data from USDA Report - The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean planting area and harvested area to 83.4 million acres and 82.5 million acres respectively, while keeping the yield per unit at 52.5 bu/acre. The production forecast was lowered by 5 million bu to 4.335 billion bu. The US soybean crushing volume in 2025/26 was increased by 50 million bu to 2.54 billion bu, and the export volume was slightly lowered by 70 million bu to 1.745 billion bu. The ending inventory was increased by 15 million bu to 310 million bu [3]. Indian Vegetable Oil Import Data - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [3].