油脂油料期货
Search documents
油脂油料:申万期货品种策略日报--20260317
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 03:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For protein meal, night - session soybean and rapeseed meal prices trended weakly. Due to the Brazil soybean harvest progress and the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations falling short of expectations, the market is worried about US soybean export prospects. The overnight US soybean futures price hit the limit down, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will follow the US soybean to run weakly in the short term [3]. - For oils, night - session oil prices trended weakly. The MPOB monthly report showed that Malaysia's February palm oil production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month, exports decreased by 22.48% month - on - month, imports increased by 136% month - on - month, and inventory decreased by 3.94% month - on - month. The slow de - stocking of palm oil and geopolitical conflicts leading to rising international oil prices may cause Indonesia to restrict palm oil exports, increasing palm oil prices. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8716, 10010, and 9948 respectively, with price changes of 26, 242, and 127, and price change rates of 0.30%, 2.48%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3071, 2482, and 8844, with price changes of - 57, - 31, and 26, and price change rates of - 1.82%, - 1.23%, and 0.29% respectively [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 18, 32, and - 178 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 20, 32, and 47. The current values of ratios - spreads such as M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 58, 46, and 587 respectively, with corresponding previous values of - 56, 34, and 595 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4525 (ringgit/ton), 1155 (cents/bushel), 63.94 (cents/pound), and 313 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 26.0, - 68.5, - 3.5, and - 9.7, and price change rates of 0.58%, - 5.60%, - 5.18%, and - 3.01% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8970 and 8910 respectively, with price change rates of 0.11% and - 0.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 10040, with a price change rate of 2.03%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 10470 and 10220, with price change rates of 1.16% and 1.19% respectively. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3290 and 3300, with price change rates of - 2.95% and - 3.79%. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2680 and 2660, with price change rates of - 3.94% and - 4.32%. The current spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7200 and 7350, with price change rates of 0.00% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 254, 30, and 522 respectively. The current spot basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 219, 198, and - 1016 respectively. The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 170, 1470, and 580 respectively [2]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 166, - 346, 34, - 221, 453, and 296 respectively, with corresponding previous values of - 401, - 309, 71, - 194, 742, and 305 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25,714, 823, 1,125, 36,982, 2,261, and 900 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 25,714, 800, 1,125, 36,982, 2,311, and 900 [2]. Industry Information - As of March 13, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 96.42% of the planting area, higher than 89.15% a week ago and the historical average of 90.64%. As of March 14, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 59.2%, compared with 50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4% [3].
油脂油料:申万期货品种策略日报-20260212
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For protein meal, although relevant data is overall bearish, the US soybean futures price continued to rise after the report was released as previous market expectations were mostly digested. In China, the domestic soybean meal futures followed the external market but were still under pressure due to expected post - holiday imported soybean auctions, high domestic soybean meal inventories, and sufficient supply expectations in the far - month [2]. - For oils, the Malaysian palm oil is in a destocking cycle during the production - reduction season, which supports the palm oil price. However, the decline of crude oil and pre - holiday market wait - and - see sentiment restrict the price, and it is expected that oils will fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are 8110, 8906, etc. The price changes are 12, - 34, etc., with corresponding percentage changes of 0.15%, - 0.38%, etc. The spreads and ratios of different contracts also show certain changes [1]. - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are 4050, 1124, etc. The price changes are - 50.0, 0.3, etc., with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.22%, 0.02%, etc. [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are 8490, 8950, etc. The percentage changes are 0.00%, - 1.10%, etc. The spot basis and spreads also have specific values [1]. 3.3 Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 377, - 399, etc., showing certain changes compared with the previous values [1]. 3.4 Industry Information - SPPOMA data shows that from February 1 - 10, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.58% month - on - month [2]. - Anec indicates that Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 11.71 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 11.42 million tons [2]. - According to CONAB data, as of February 8, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 17.4%, compared with 11.2% last week, 14.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 18.7% [2]. - USDA's February supply - demand report increased the estimated Brazilian soybean output from 178 million tons in January to 180 million tons, and raised the global soybean ending stocks by 1.1 million tons to 125.51 million tons [2]. 3.5 MPOB Report - In January, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2.815 million tons, a 7.72% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.484 million tons, an 11.44% month - on - month increase; production was 1.577 million tons, a 13.78% month - on - month decrease; imports were 32,316 tons, a 2.93% month - on - month decrease [2].
申万期货品种策略日报-油脂油料-20260211
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 01:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports in February are expected to increase, with soybean exports forecasted at 11.71 million tons and soybean meal exports at 1.93 million tons [3] - The US 2025/2026 soybean production, ending stocks, and yield forecasts remain unchanged from the January report [3] - Protein meal prices face pressure due to ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest and high domestic inventory and sufficient supply expectations [3] - Malaysian palm oil is in a de - stocking cycle, but crude oil price fluctuations and market sentiment limit palm oil price increases, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8098, 8940, and 9096 respectively, with changes of - 16, - 74, and - 41, and percentage changes of - 0.20%, - 0.82%, and - 3.15% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 40, 112, and 68 respectively, and the current values of ratios such as M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 48, 68, and 559 respectively [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4100 ringgit/ton, 1123 cents/bushel, 57.25 cents/pound, and 301 dollars/ton respectively, with percentage changes of 0.44%, 1.22%, 0.90%, and 1.14% [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8490 and 8510 respectively, with a 0.00% change; the current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9050, with a - 0.11% change [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 388, and the current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 460 [2] Import and Crushing Profit - **Current and Previous Values**: The current import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 360, and the previous value was - 383; for near - month US Gulf soybeans, the current value is - 409, and the previous value was - 354 [2] Warehouse Receipts - **Current and Previous Values**: The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 26,305, 450, and 625 respectively, and the previous values were the same [2]
油脂油料:申万期货品种策略日报-20260209
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 01:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The growth and moisture conditions of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crops have significantly deteriorated, with the proportion of normal - to - good rated crops and suitable - to - optimal moisture areas decreasing [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production in February 1 - 5, 2026 increased compared to the same period last month, with an increase in both yield per unit and oil extraction rate [2] - Brazilian soybean harvesting is ongoing, and the harvest pressure may put downward pressure on US soybean prices, while the new purchase plan of US soybeans may support prices [2] - Malaysia's palm oil is in a de - stocking cycle during the production - reduction season, which supports palm oil prices, but the expected increase in far - month supply of rapeseed oil may put pressure on near - term oil prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are provided, along with price changes and their percentages. For example, soybean oil's previous day's closing price was 8102, with a change of - 2 and a percentage change of - 0.02% [1] - **International Futures**: International futures prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are given, including previous day's closing prices, price changes and their percentages. For instance, BMD palm oil's previous day's closing price was 4119, with a change of - 21.0 and a percentage change of - 0.51% [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various oils and meals in domestic markets are presented, along with their price changes and percentages, such as the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil at 8480 with a percentage change of - 0.12% [1] - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads of different products are provided, like the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil at 378 and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil at - 460 [1] 3.3 Import and Processing Margins - Import and processing margins of near - month Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. are presented, and their values compared with the previous values. For example, the current import and processing margin of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 360, compared with the previous value of - 383 [1] 3.4 Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are given, with the current values and previous values remaining the same for most products. For example, the current and previous values of soybean oil warehouse receipts are both 26,305 [1]
油脂油料:申万期货品种策略日报-2026/2/6-20260206
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 01:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Malaysian palm oil production in January decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons, with significant drops in different regions [2] - US 2025/2026 soybean and corn export net sales decreased compared to the previous week [2] - Brazilian soybean harvest rate reached 11.4% as of January 31, higher than last year but slightly lower than the five - year average [2] - The call between Chinese and US leaders mentioned new procurement plans for US soybeans, boosting US soybean export prospects, but Brazilian harvest pressure still affects US soybean prices [2] - High domestic soybean meal inventory and sufficient supply expectations in the far - month will continue to put pressure on prices [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports were strong in January, production decreased month - on - month, and with tariff cuts, future export expectations are improving, and the inventory pressure will continue to decline [2] - China's consideration of increasing agricultural product purchases, including 20 million tons of soybeans this season, supports soybean oil prices, but the expected increase in far - month rapeseed supply from Canada pressures near - term oil prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Domestic Futures** - For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8104, 9042, and 9144 respectively, with price changes of - 36, - 96, and - 99, and percentage changes of - 0.44%, - 1.05%, and - 3.15% [1] - The spreads and ratios of different varieties also changed compared to the previous values [1] - **International Futures** - The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4140 (ringgit/ton), 1111 (cents/bushel), 55.63 (cents/pound), and 303 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 9.0, 18.8, - 0.1, and 6.4, and percentage changes of 0.22%, 1.72%, - 0.11%, and 2.16% [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices** - Spot prices of various oils and meals showed different degrees of change, such as Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil prices decreased by - 0.24% and - 0.47% respectively, while Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang rapeseed oil prices increased by 1.21% and 1.01% [1] - Spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts also had corresponding changes [1] - **Spot Basis and Spreads** - Spot basis and spreads of different varieties also changed compared to the previous values [1] 3.3 Import and Crushing Profit - Import and crushing profits of different varieties such as Malaysian palm oil, US and Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil changed compared to the previous values [1] 3.4 Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 26,305, 450, 625, 36,228, 0, and 0 respectively, with little change compared to the previous values [1]
油脂油料:申万期货品种策略日报-20251230
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 03:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, night - session soybean and rapeseed meals fluctuated and closed lower. Chinese procurement plans are advancing steadily, providing support for US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the expectation of tight supply in the imported soybean market has pushed up the price of soybean meal, but the abundant long - term supply will continue to pressure the price [2]. - For oils and fats, night - session oils and fats fluctuated. The improvement of Malaysian palm oil export data boosted the palm oil market, but concerns about the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 plan have emerged. Soybean oil is under pressure due to the expected high yield, and the short - term fundamental improvement of oils and fats is limited. The inventory pressure in Southeast Asian palm oil producing areas is difficult to relieve significantly in the short term, so the rebound of oils and fats is restricted and they are expected to continue to fluctuate [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7818, 8512, 9040, 2774, 2465, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 18, - 56, - 6, - 16, 6, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.23%, - 0.65%, - 3.15%, - 0.57%, 0.24%, and 0.29% respectively. There were also changes in spreads and price - ratio spreads [1]. - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4058, 1064, 49.26, and 304 respectively. The price changes were 48, - 8, 0, and - 4, with percentage changes of 1.20%, - 0.75%, 0.12%, and - 1.27% respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of various oils, meals, and peanuts in different regions had different percentage changes. The spot basis also varied, such as 456 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and 300 for Nantong soybean meal [1]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spot spreads between different products, like the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, changed compared to the previous values [1]. Import and Profit - The import profit and loss of various agricultural products, such as Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed, had different values compared to the previous ones [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 28,264, 0, 3,786, 24,830, 0, and 0 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - From December, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained above 2 million tons. As of December 26, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was about 7.7 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.9 million tons for the whole month of December, an increase of about 700,000 tons year - on - year and about 600,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - A US private exporter reported selling 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2]. - As of December 27, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 97.9%, up from 97.6% last week, compared to 98.2% last year and a five - year average of 96.7%. The soybean harvesting rate was 0.1%, the same as last year and the five - year average [2].
油脂油料:申万期货品种策略日报-20251223
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean meal oscillated and closed lower, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. Brazilian soybean sowing rate reached 94.1% as of the week of December 13. US soybean exports are still slightly slow. With concerns over US soybean export demand and increasing expectations of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybean futures prices have been weak recently. In China, continuous auctions of imported soybeans have made up for the supply gap, and the cost support for Dalian oil and meal has weakened. With sufficient long - term supply expected to continue to pressure prices, Dalian meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils showed a strong oscillation. Malaysia's reduction of palm oil export tax rates and reference prices boosted export expectations, leading to a rise in palm oil futures prices. However, the inventory pressure in the producing areas is still significant. Although in the production - reduction period, the inventory inflection point may not appear until December. For rapeseed oil, with Australian rapeseeds arriving at ports and about to enter the crushing process, market supply is expected to gradually increase. With no improvement in the short - term fundamentals of palm oil producing areas, oils are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7772, 8414, and 8864 respectively, with price changes of 60, 122, and 120 and percentage changes of 0.78%, 1.47%, and - 3.15%. The price differences and ratios of various contracts also showed different changes [1]. - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3958 (Ringgit/ton), 1064 (cents/bu), 49 (cents/lb), and 302 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 9, 15, 1, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.23%, 1.43%, 1.49%, and 0.13% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Domestic Spot**: In the domestic spot market, the spot prices of various oils and meals showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.61%, and the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil increased by 0.24%. The spot price differences and basis also changed compared with the previous values [1]. - **Import and Processing Profit**: The current values of import and processing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil were - 391, - 314, - 103, - 300, and - 335 respectively, showing different degrees of improvement compared with the previous values [1]. 3.3 Industry Information - **Soybean Export**: A US private exporter reported selling 396,000 tons of soybeans to China, with 330,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/2026 season and the remaining 66,000 tons for delivery in the 2026/2027 season [2]. - **Palm Oil Export**: According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 821,442 tons, a 0.87% decrease compared to the same period last month [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251219
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down. Brazilian soybean sowing rate is 94.1% as of Dec 13, 2025. US soybean exports are still slightly slow, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report provides no significant support. Domestic high - cost imports support prices, while sufficient future supply will pressure prices. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. - Oils and fats: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil rose slightly. Malaysia's reduction of palm oil export tax rate and reference price boosts export expectations. However, the inventory pressure in the producing areas is still significant, and the inventory inflection point may appear in December. With Australian rapeseed arriving at ports and entering the pressing stage, the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase. It is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7802, 8368, 8945, 2747, 2406, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 20, 26, - 5, - 9, 5, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.26%, 0.31%, - 3.15%, - 0.33%, 0.21%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various futures contracts have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changed from - 342 to - 278 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3947 (Ringgit/ton), 1052 (cents/bushel), 49 (cents/pound), and 302 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 53, - 7, - 1, and 0, with percentage changes of - 1.33%, - 0.66%, - 1.08%, and 0.10% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8290, with a percentage change of - 0.72% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various products have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 488 [1]. 3.4 Import and Profit - The current import profits of various products such as Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 547 to - 480 [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,264, 950, 4,006, 23,830, 0, and 0 respectively. The warehouse receipts of soybean oil and rapeseed oil have changed compared to the previous values [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil exports in October 2025 were 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year decline of about 3%. The production of crude palm oil in October was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than the previous month's 2.59 million tons [2]. - The estimated soybean production in Paraná, Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, the same as the November estimate [2].
油脂油料:申万期货品种策略日报-20251211
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Night trading of protein meal: Soybean meal was weak, while rapeseed meal rose slightly. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, but US soybean exports are still slightly slow. There is a gap between the current sales volume to China and the procurement target. The USDA monthly supply and demand report provided limited support, and the price of US soybean futures is weak. In China, the expected supply of new - season South American soybeans is abundant, and the import cost has decreased. The release of the soybean auction announcement by CGS also puts pressure on prices, and the overall performance is weak [2]. - Night trading of oils: Oils were strong. The MPOB report shows that the production and exports of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased, while the inventory increased. The inventory pressure in the producing areas is significant, and the inventory inflection point may appear in December. The USDA report is neutral, and oils are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8230, 8706, and 9502 respectively, with price drops of - 36, - 64, and - 116 and declines of - 0.44%, - 0.73%, and - 3.15% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2778, 2395, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 43, - 2, and 26 and changes of - 1.52%, - 0.08%, and 0.29% respectively. The spreads and price - to - price ratios of various varieties also changed compared with the previous values [1]. - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4079 (Ringgit/ton), 1094 (cents/bushel), 51 (cents/pound), and 307 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price drops of - 39, - 12, - 1, and - 1 and declines of - 0.95%, - 1.04%, - 1.01%, and - 0.20% respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8490 and 8520 respectively, with increases of 0.47% and 0.59%. The current prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8740 and 8640 respectively, with no change. The current prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9680 and 9830 respectively, with increases of 0.52% and 0.51%. The current prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3040 and 3030 respectively, with increases of 1.33% and 0.66%. The current prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2380 and 2460 respectively, with increases of 0.42% and 0.41%. The current prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7150, with changes of 0.00% and - 1.38% respectively. The spot spreads and basis of various varieties also changed compared with the previous values [1]. - **Import and Crushing Profit**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 501, - 363, - 145, - 313, 278, and 776 respectively, with changes compared with the previous values [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25,964, 452, 3,490, 23,830, 0, and 0 respectively, with changes compared with the previous values [1]. Industry Information - According to MPOB, in November, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.9355 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.30%; exports were 1.2128 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.13%; and the ending inventory was 2.8354 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.04%. According to USDA, US private exporters sold 136,000 tons of soybeans to China, 119,000 tons to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 season, and 120,000 tons of soybean meal to Poland [2].
油脂油料产业日报-20251121
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:52
Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures declined under fundamental bearish pressure. SPPOMA data showed a production increase of over 10% from the 1st to the 20th. With concerns about weak exports, palm oil prices dropped significantly, breaking below the 4,100 ringgit support. There is short - term downward pressure towards 4,000 ringgit, with a chance of a brief rebound. If the production growth issue persists, prices may fall to the 3,950 - 3,960 range [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures were weak. Affected by the decline in Malaysian palm oil, prices broke below 8,600 yuan and hit a new low. They are expected to test the 8,500 - yuan support. There is a risk of falling to 8,200 yuan if Malaysian palm oil briefly breaks below 4,000 ringgit, which is also supported by the 250 - week moving average [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil futures declined due to international market trends, including a possible delay in the US reducing biofuel import subsidies, weak Malaysian export data, and optimistic prospects for Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Domestic demand is poor, and supply is sufficient, pressuring the futures market. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil fell to 8,170 yuan, close to the 8,150 - yuan semi - annual moving average. There is a chance of testing this support level [4]. Bean Meal - Dalian bean meal futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. Hedging pressure and weak US soybean prices limited upward movement, while cost support restricted downward space. The short - term range is expected to be between 2,980 - 3,030 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [14]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 was at 8,550 yuan/ton (-1.11%), palm oil 05 at 8,668 yuan/ton (-1.19%), palm oil 09 at 8,532 yuan/ton (-1.14%), BMD palm oil at 4,149 ringgit/ton (-0.14%), Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil at 8,600 yuan/ton (-70), and its basis at 24 yuan/ton (+96) [6]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 was at 8,190 yuan/ton (-0.17%), soybean oil 05 at 7,982 yuan/ton (-0.28%), soybean oil 09 at 7,926 yuan/ton (-0.38%), CBOT soybean oil at 51.07 cents/pound (-0.74%), Shandong first - grade soybean oil at 8,330 yuan/ton (-100), and its basis at 206 yuan/ton (-268) [10]. Oilseed Price Data - Bean meal: Bean meal 01 was at 3,012 (-0.17%), bean meal 05 at 2,803 (-0.28%), bean meal 09 at 2,915 (-0.38%), and CBOT soybeans at 1,123 (0%) [15]. - Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal 01 was at 2,431 (+0.79%), rapeseed meal 05 at 2,367 (-0.42%), and rapeseed meal 09 at 2,435 (-0.37%) [15]. Spread Data - Oil spreads: P 1 - 5 was -126 yuan/ton (-36), P 5 - 9 was 142 yuan/ton (-8), P 9 - 1 was -16 yuan/ton (+44), Y - P 01 was -422 yuan/ton (+74), etc. [5]. - Oilseed spreads: M01 - 05 was 209 (+3), RM01 - 05 was 64 (+29), M05 - 09 was -112 (+3), etc. [16][19]