供应恢复偏慢 焦煤市场运行逻辑回归产业端，且近期供应影响更大。国内煤矿7月虽然陆续复产，产量逐步回升，但 煤矿受到井下条件影响，叠加安全、环保等因素的扰动，国内炼焦煤产量恢复偏慢，供应显著低于前期 高位。截至8月1日当周，钢联统计的523家炼焦煤样本矿山精煤、原煤日均产量分别为77.67万吨、 193.56万吨，从低位累计回升3.85万吨、8.54万吨，但相较年内81.69万吨、202.10万吨的高点存有差 距。此外，有关煤矿倒查超产消息不断发酵，7月10日国家能源局发布相关文件通知，要求2025年单个 煤矿产量超过核定产能10%的煤矿停产整顿，引发市场对煤矿后期减产的担忧。据钢联调研反馈，山西 吕梁、长治已有煤矿收到相关通知，个别煤矿甚至停产。 受 "反内卷"预期提振，7月焦煤价格强势上涨，领涨商品市场。不过，随着交易所调整交易限额，叠加 强预期兑现有限，市场乐观情绪修正，焦煤期价高位回落。 乐观情绪修正 7月预期主导市场，黑色金属集体上行，其中焦煤涨幅明显。随着重大会议结束，强预期兑现有限，叠 加经济数据有所走弱，7月底乐观情绪迎来修正。7月30日，中央政治局会议指出，要依法依规治理企业 无序竞争，推进重 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have improved. They are increasing their inventory of raw coal, and some are proposing a fifth - round price hike. The market is strengthening, and coking enterprises' production is stable with a maintained enthusiasm for coking coal procurement. However, due to terminal demand and profit constraints, the upward space is limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will be slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been quickly implemented, improving coking enterprises' profitability. But the raw material coking coal price is still rising slightly, and production costs are high. Coking enterprises have no obvious intention to increase production. Downstream demand for coke is good, and inventories are low. With steel mills' high - level production supported by profits and low coke inventories, and the high coking coal price, it is expected that coke prices will continue to be slightly stronger in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coal mines are affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, with supply slowly recovering. Coking enterprises are cautious about purchasing high - priced coal, and the price increase atmosphere has weakened. The auction market prices are mixed, but coal prices are generally stable due to pre - sold orders; bullish [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1040, and the basis is - 77, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mills' inventory is 791.1 million tons, port inventory is 321.5 million tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory is 790.2 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average; bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [3]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth. Bearish factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been implemented, improving coking enterprises' profitability. But the raw material coking coal price is still rising slightly, and production costs are high. Coking enterprises' production remains at the previous level, and downstream demand is good with low inventories; bullish [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1570, and the basis is - 106.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mills' inventory is 639 million tons, port inventory is 199.1 million tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory is 55.6 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average; bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates. Bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn replenishment demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mills' Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [26]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [37]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The production of coking coal has recovered, market sentiment is high, downstream procurement demand has increased, and coal prices will continue the positive trend under restocking support. Although the profit margin of downstream steel mills has been squeezed after accepting the first price increase, the demand for raw materials remains due to high pig iron production and no intention to reduce production [2]. - The short - term price of coke is also expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream procurement is active, coke inventories are generally low, but the sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the cost pressure on coke enterprises, and some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction. The supply of coke remains tight, and the market bullish sentiment is strong [5]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Mines are gradually resuming production, market sentiment is high, downstream procurement demand has increased, and coal prices will continue the positive trend under restocking support; the situation is bullish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 21.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; the situation is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons compared to last week; the situation is bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; the situation is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing; the situation is bearish [2]. - Expectation: After the downstream steel mills accept the first price increase, although the profit margin is squeezed, the demand for raw materials remains due to high pig iron production and no intention to reduce production. The short - term coking coal price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Downstream procurement is active, coke inventories are generally low, but the sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the cost pressure on coke enterprises, and some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction. The situation is bullish [5]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1420, with a basis of - 99, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price; the situation is bearish [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 933.2 tons, a decrease of 15.2 tons compared to last week; the situation is bullish [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; the situation is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing; the situation is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Coke enterprises' profits are low, production enthusiasm is average, some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction, the supply of coke remains tight, and the market bullish sentiment is strong. The short - term coke price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production; difficulty in increasing supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke and steel enterprises; weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production and simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margin of steel mills; partial overdraft of restocking demand [7]. Price Information Coking Coal - On July 17, 2025 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal are provided, including the prices of various types of coking coal such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal at different ports, along with price changes [9]. Coke - On July 17, 2025 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, including the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports, along with price changes [8]. Inventory Information - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 tons, a decrease of 11.1 tons compared to last week [17]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 tons, a decrease of 21.4 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 87.3 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons compared to last week [20]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 642.8 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week [23]. Other Information - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [34]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan compared to last week [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For coking coal, with the expected continued rise in terminal molten iron and stable demand support, along with improved steel mill profitability and some coke enterprises' limited production due to poor profitability, the current restocking demand remains, but the procurement of raw materials is relatively cautious, and high - priced resources have general transactions. It is expected that the coking coal price may remain stable in the short term [2]. - For coke, with high - stable steel mill开工, increased restocking demand from some steel mills, active purchasing by intermediate speculative traders, smooth coke shipments, and enhanced cost support from the recent price increase of some coking coal, it is expected that coke prices may remain stable in the short term [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - Part of the mines are resuming production, but the output has not returned to normal. Downstream restocking demand is gradually released, and the inventory in the production area is decreasing. The online auction performance has improved, and the prices of some high - quality resources and previously oversold coal varieties have increased slightly, with a neutral outlook [3]. - The spot price is 940, and the basis is 125.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons compared to last week, which is bullish [3]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [3]. - The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish signal [3]. Factors - Bullish factors include the increase in molten iron production and the difficulty in increasing supply [5]. - Bearish factors are the slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [5]. Coke Fundamental Analysis - Coke enterprises' production load is basically stable, with some having limited production due to profit losses. With the increasing purchasing enthusiasm of intermediate traders and the continuous warming of steel mill demand, coke enterprises' shipments are smooth, and the inventory has decreased, with a neutral outlook [9]. - The spot price is 1320, and the basis is - 68.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures, a bearish signal [9]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons compared to last week, which is bullish [9]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [9]. - The main position of coke is net short, with a decrease in short positions, a bearish signal [9]. Factors - Bullish factors are the increase in molten iron production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [11]. - Bearish factors are the squeezed profit margin of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [11]. Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons compared to last week [21]. - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons compared to last week [24]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared to last week [27]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan compared to last week [42].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-23） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近日环保安监趋严，煤矿开工产量小幅下降，但仍处于偏高水平。然下游需求依旧显露疲 态，市场观望情绪依旧存在，用煤企业采购体量较小，煤矿出货压力增加，部分矿点报价继续下调。加 之焦炭价格继续走弱背景下，炼焦煤价格支撑较弱；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差145；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂对焦炭采购价格提出第四轮降价，市场情绪不断走低，加之成材消费淡 ...

5月26日盘中，焦煤期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至791.0元。截止发稿，焦煤主力合约报 801.5元，跌幅1.72%。 焦煤期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 从供应端来看，国内煤矿生产持续高位运行，4月原煤产量同比增长3.8%，1-4月累计产量同比增长 6.6%，山西、内蒙古和陕西等主要产煤大省产量均有不同程度增长。进口方面，虽海运煤进口利润下 降，但蒙古煤"五一"后日通过量仍维持高位，5月17日中蒙第二条跨境铁路开工，后续进口能力还将提 升，内蒙古288口岸库存高企，成交冷清，贸易商降价出货，进一步打压价格。需求端同样表现疲软。 钢铁行业作为焦煤主要消费领域，当前处于淡旺季转换阶段，上周247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比减少 0.87万吨，有见顶迹象，且在低利润背景下，钢厂采购谨慎，无集中补库需求。而焦化厂面临钢厂连续 压价，已历12轮提价，后续还有第13轮提价可能，市场情绪谨慎，采购推迟，导致煤焦销售不畅，库存 连续累积。综合来看，除非国内煤矿大幅减产或需求端超预期反弹，否则焦煤价格仍将承压，短期内弱 势格局难改。 广州期货：煤焦价格仍将承压 目前来看，焦煤从驱动来看，向下的 ...