Summary of Coking Coal Conference Call Industry Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of coking coal globally, holding approximately 26% of the world's total reserves [4] - Domestic coking coal production has shown a steady decline in recent years, with a projected output of about 470 million tons in 2024, down 4.3% from previous years [4][7] - The supply of coking coal is primarily concentrated in North and East China, with Shanxi province accounting for over 50% of production [6] Key Points and Arguments - The global supply of coking coal is dominated by Australia, which accounts for over 50% of global trade, followed by Russia (13%) and Mongolia, which is the largest flexible source for China [7][8] - Domestic supply is inelastic, with the main flexibility coming from Mongolian imports, which are closely linked to domestic market prices [10] - The demand for coking coal is primarily driven by the steel industry, with weak demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors impacting overall consumption [12] - Coking coal prices are expected to have limited upside potential, primarily influenced by supply-side reductions, especially due to policy enforcement against overproduction [5][14] Recent Market Performance - The coking coal market experienced a poor performance in the first half of the year due to weak demand from real estate and infrastructure, but rebounded strongly from June onwards, with futures prices rising significantly [13] - The market saw a rebound of approximately 400 yuan, with futures prices increasing from 709 yuan to nearly 1,400 yuan [13] Profitability and Stock Performance - Many coking coal companies reported significant declines in profitability in Q2, with some high-cost producers facing losses [15] - The overall coking coal stock sector is expected to struggle for substantial opportunities due to weak demand and lack of significant supply reductions, with more focus on thematic trading opportunities [16] - Key stocks of interest include Shanxi Coking Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Huaibei Mining, which are characterized by stable income due to long-term contracts [17] Future Outlook - The overall price of coking coal is unlikely to see strong increases without significant supply reductions, and the bottom price level is expected to be supported by production costs [14] - Investment opportunities are anticipated to be thematic, with potential for small gains during policy-driven price fluctuations [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: Recent enhanced coal mine safety inspections and accident supervision have restricted coking coal production growth. Amid the steel - coking game, downstream coking enterprises have slowed down raw material procurement, and the trading atmosphere of coking coal is average with more online auction failures and price drops. The total sample inventory has decreased. The iron - water output remains high in the short - term, but the sales of downstream finished products have weakened, and environmental protection restrictions on coking plants and steel mills also pressure coking coal demand. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will remain stable [3]. - **焦炭**: As the parade approaches, coking enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, but other regions have increased production due to profit recovery, resulting in a tight balance of coke supply. Currently, both supply and demand of coke have weakened in the short - term, but overall supply remains tight as other steel mills are still productive and their raw material inventories are low. It is expected that the short - term coke price will be stable with a slight upward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **每日观点** - **焦煤**: Fundamental factors are positive; the basis is neutral; inventory is positive; the disk is neutral; the main position is negative. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [3]. - **焦炭**: Fundamental factors are positive; the basis is negative; inventory is positive; the disk is negative; the main position is negative. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [7]. **价格** - Mysteel's port metallurgical coke price index on August 28 shows that most prices have decreased, except for some dry - quenched coke prices which have increased [10]. **库存情况** - **港口库存**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - **独立焦企库存**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - **钢厂库存**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [30]. **其他数据** - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines are adjusting work plans and organizing production according to 276 working days, leading to a slight decline in domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, with some high - priced resources having weak transactions and coal prices starting to回调. However, coal mine inventories are low, and there is a strong willingness to hold prices. Although downstream enterprises are still reluctant to accept high - priced coal, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the sixth round of coke price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. But the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down. Although the arrival of coke at steel mills has improved and inventory has increased, the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines adjust work plans, reducing domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, and high - priced resources have weak transactions. Coal mine inventories are low, with strong price - holding intentions [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 2.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Downstream enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced coal, but after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the sixth round of price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. The procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the inventory of coking enterprises is still at a low level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 82, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: The arrival of coke at steel mills has improved, and inventory has increased. But the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing significant price increases, with the main contract rising by 2.05% to 1244.5 CNY/ton as of August 11 [1] - Inner Mongolia Huineng Group Erlintutu Coal Co., Ltd. has passed the inspection for resuming production, meeting the conditions for restarting operations [2] - Indonesia's Ministry of Mining reported that coal exports reached 238 million tons from January to June, with a production target of 739.7 million tons by 2025 [2] Group 2 - According to Da Yue Futures, the operating rate of coking enterprises and pig iron production remain high, sustaining strong demand for coking coal, although purchasing pace may slow down post-inventory replenishment [3] - Zhongyuan Futures noted that the overall recovery of coal mines in major production areas is slow, with supply disruptions still anticipated, while downstream acceptance of high coal prices is decreasing [3] - The coking coal auction prices in the Lüliang market have increased, with the average transaction price for high-sulfur coking coal rising by 159 CNY/ton compared to the previous auction [2]

Core Viewpoint - In July, coking coal prices surged due to expectations of "anti-involution," but subsequently retreated as trading limits were adjusted and optimistic expectations were not fully realized [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Optimistic sentiment dominated the market in July, with significant increases in black metal prices, particularly coking coal. However, after major meetings concluded, the realization of strong expectations was limited, leading to a correction in sentiment by the end of July [2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises and advance capacity governance in key industries, indicating a shift in policy language from previous meetings [2] - PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed a decline to 49.3% in July, raising concerns about a slowdown in manufacturing demand [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The recovery of coking coal supply has been slow, with domestic coal mines gradually resuming production but still facing challenges due to underground conditions and safety regulations. Current production levels remain significantly below earlier highs [3] - As of August 1, daily average production of premium and raw coal from 523 sample mines was 776,700 tons and 1,935,600 tons, respectively, showing a recovery but still below the year's peaks [3] - Concerns about potential production cuts have arisen following the National Energy Administration's directive to halt operations at mines exceeding their approved production capacity by 10% [3] Group 3: Import Trends - Coking coal imports showed a positive recovery, with June imports reaching 9.1084 million tons, a 23.31% increase month-on-month. However, the cumulative import volume for the first half of the year was down 7.36% year-on-year [4] - Following the conclusion of the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, normal customs operations resumed, leading to an increase in daily traffic at key ports [4] - The narrowing price gap between Australian coking coal and domestic coal may lead to increased imports [4] Group 4: Demand Performance - Coking coal demand remains strong, supported by high iron and steel production levels. Daily average iron output from 247 sample steel mills was 2.4071 million tons as of August 1 [5] - The inventory levels of traders and end-users have decreased significantly, prompting a replenishment cycle as supply constraints emerged in June [5] - The profitability of steel mills remains robust, and the ongoing price increases for coking coal indicate sustained demand [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have improved. They are increasing their inventory of raw coal, and some are proposing a fifth - round price hike. The market is strengthening, and coking enterprises' production is stable with a maintained enthusiasm for coking coal procurement. However, due to terminal demand and profit constraints, the upward space is limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will be slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been quickly implemented, improving coking enterprises' profitability. But the raw material coking coal price is still rising slightly, and production costs are high. Coking enterprises have no obvious intention to increase production. Downstream demand for coke is good, and inventories are low. With steel mills' high - level production supported by profits and low coke inventories, and the high coking coal price, it is expected that coke prices will continue to be slightly stronger in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coal mines are affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, with supply slowly recovering. Coking enterprises are cautious about purchasing high - priced coal, and the price increase atmosphere has weakened. The auction market prices are mixed, but coal prices are generally stable due to pre - sold orders; bullish [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1040, and the basis is - 77, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mills' inventory is 791.1 million tons, port inventory is 321.5 million tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory is 790.2 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average; bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [3]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth. Bearish factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: The fourth round of coke price hikes has been implemented, improving coking enterprises' profitability. But the raw material coking coal price is still rising slightly, and production costs are high. Coking enterprises' production remains at the previous level, and downstream demand is good with low inventories; bullish [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1570, and the basis is - 106.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mills' inventory is 639 million tons, port inventory is 199.1 million tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory is 55.6 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average; bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates. Bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn replenishment demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mills' Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [26]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [37]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The production of coking coal has recovered, market sentiment is high, downstream procurement demand has increased, and coal prices will continue the positive trend under restocking support. Although the profit margin of downstream steel mills has been squeezed after accepting the first price increase, the demand for raw materials remains due to high pig iron production and no intention to reduce production [2]. - The short - term price of coke is also expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream procurement is active, coke inventories are generally low, but the sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the cost pressure on coke enterprises, and some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction. The supply of coke remains tight, and the market bullish sentiment is strong [5]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Mines are gradually resuming production, market sentiment is high, downstream procurement demand has increased, and coal prices will continue the positive trend under restocking support; the situation is bullish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 21.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; the situation is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons compared to last week; the situation is bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; the situation is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing; the situation is bearish [2]. - Expectation: After the downstream steel mills accept the first price increase, although the profit margin is squeezed, the demand for raw materials remains due to high pig iron production and no intention to reduce production. The short - term coking coal price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Downstream procurement is active, coke inventories are generally low, but the sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the cost pressure on coke enterprises, and some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction. The situation is bullish [5]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1420, with a basis of - 99, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price; the situation is bearish [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 933.2 tons, a decrease of 15.2 tons compared to last week; the situation is bullish [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; the situation is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing; the situation is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Coke enterprises' profits are low, production enthusiasm is average, some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction, the supply of coke remains tight, and the market bullish sentiment is strong. The short - term coke price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production; difficulty in increasing supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke and steel enterprises; weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production and simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margin of steel mills; partial overdraft of restocking demand [7]. Price Information Coking Coal - On July 17, 2025 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal are provided, including the prices of various types of coking coal such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal at different ports, along with price changes [9]. Coke - On July 17, 2025 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, including the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports, along with price changes [8]. Inventory Information - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 tons, a decrease of 11.1 tons compared to last week [17]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 tons, a decrease of 21.4 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 87.3 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons compared to last week [20]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 642.8 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week [23]. Other Information - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [34]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan compared to last week [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For coking coal, with the expected continued rise in terminal molten iron and stable demand support, along with improved steel mill profitability and some coke enterprises' limited production due to poor profitability, the current restocking demand remains, but the procurement of raw materials is relatively cautious, and high - priced resources have general transactions. It is expected that the coking coal price may remain stable in the short term [2]. - For coke, with high - stable steel mill开工, increased restocking demand from some steel mills, active purchasing by intermediate speculative traders, smooth coke shipments, and enhanced cost support from the recent price increase of some coking coal, it is expected that coke prices may remain stable in the short term [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - Part of the mines are resuming production, but the output has not returned to normal. Downstream restocking demand is gradually released, and the inventory in the production area is decreasing. The online auction performance has improved, and the prices of some high - quality resources and previously oversold coal varieties have increased slightly, with a neutral outlook [3]. - The spot price is 940, and the basis is 125.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons compared to last week, which is bullish [3]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [3]. - The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish signal [3]. Factors - Bullish factors include the increase in molten iron production and the difficulty in increasing supply [5]. - Bearish factors are the slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [5]. Coke Fundamental Analysis - Coke enterprises' production load is basically stable, with some having limited production due to profit losses. With the increasing purchasing enthusiasm of intermediate traders and the continuous warming of steel mill demand, coke enterprises' shipments are smooth, and the inventory has decreased, with a neutral outlook [9]. - The spot price is 1320, and the basis is - 68.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures, a bearish signal [9]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons compared to last week, which is bullish [9]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [9]. - The main position of coke is net short, with a decrease in short positions, a bearish signal [9]. Factors - Bullish factors are the increase in molten iron production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [11]. - Bearish factors are the squeezed profit margin of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [11]. Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons compared to last week [21]. - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons compared to last week [24]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared to last week [27]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan compared to last week [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of coking coal may weaken in the short - term due to factors such as stricter environmental and safety inspections leading to a slight decline in coal mine production, weak downstream demand, increasing coal mine shipment pressure, and a decrease in raw material demand caused by more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills during the off - season of finished product consumption [3]. - The report expects that coke will continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term. Although coke production has been cut due to losses and environmental protection factors, steel mills' strategy of controlling purchases remains unchanged, resulting in significant shipment pressure on coke enterprises [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Recently, environmental and safety inspections have become stricter, leading to a slight decline in coal mine production, but it remains at a relatively high level. Downstream demand is weak, with coal - using enterprises purchasing in small volumes, increasing coal mine shipment pressure and causing some mine sites to lower their quotes. The weakening coke price also provides little support for coking coal prices. This situation is considered bearish [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 145, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is considered bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week, which is considered bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is considered neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: Some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut for coke, lowering market sentiment. During the off - season of finished product consumption, more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills and increased control of arrivals by coke and steel plants have further reduced the rigid demand for raw materials. Therefore, the short - term coking coal price is expected to weaken [3]. 3.2 Daily View - Coke - **Fundamentals**: Affected by environmental inspections and profit factors, the enthusiasm of some coke enterprises in the production area has been dampened, leading to voluntary production cuts. As the decline in raw material coal prices narrows, the cost pressure on coke enterprises has increased, and coke supply continues to shrink. This situation is considered bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1300, with a basis of - 84.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is considered bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons. The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week, which is considered bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is considered neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The supply - demand contradiction in the current coke market remains unresolved. Although coke enterprises have continuously cut production due to losses and environmental protection factors, steel mills' strategy of controlling purchases remains unchanged, resulting in significant shipment pressure on coke enterprises. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, coke is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Coking Coal - Factors - **Bullish factors**: An increase in molten iron production and limited increase in supply [5]. - **Bearish factors**: Slower procurement of raw material coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. 3.4 Coke - Factors - **Bullish factors**: An increase in molten iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - **Bearish factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - **Port inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent coke enterprise inventory**: Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel mill inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [25]. 3.6 Other Data - **Coke oven capacity utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises across the country is 74%, which is the same as last week [36]. - **Average profit per ton of coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].

5月26日盘中，焦煤期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至791.0元。截止发稿，焦煤主力合约报 801.5元，跌幅1.72%。 焦煤期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 从供应端来看，国内煤矿生产持续高位运行，4月原煤产量同比增长3.8%，1-4月累计产量同比增长 6.6%，山西、内蒙古和陕西等主要产煤大省产量均有不同程度增长。进口方面，虽海运煤进口利润下 降，但蒙古煤"五一"后日通过量仍维持高位，5月17日中蒙第二条跨境铁路开工，后续进口能力还将提 升，内蒙古288口岸库存高企，成交冷清，贸易商降价出货，进一步打压价格。需求端同样表现疲软。 钢铁行业作为焦煤主要消费领域，当前处于淡旺季转换阶段，上周247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比减少 0.87万吨，有见顶迹象，且在低利润背景下，钢厂采购谨慎，无集中补库需求。而焦化厂面临钢厂连续 压价，已历12轮提价，后续还有第13轮提价可能，市场情绪谨慎，采购推迟，导致煤焦销售不畅，库存 连续累积。综合来看，除非国内煤矿大幅减产或需求端超预期反弹，否则焦煤价格仍将承压，短期内弱 势格局难改。 广州期货：煤焦价格仍将承压 目前来看，焦煤从驱动来看，向下的 ...