煤炭ETF跟踪的是中证煤炭指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开 采、煤化工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业相关上市公司的整体表现。该指数成 分股覆盖了煤炭行业的龙头企业，具有较高的行业代表性。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 光大证券指出，煤炭行业供需维持稳定，夏季用电高峰带动需求季节性上升，港口煤价延续回升趋 势。本周秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500大卡）环比上涨1.06%至628元/吨，海外天然气价格同步回升 3.35%。当前247座高炉产能利用率89.90%支撑铁水日均产量240.79万吨，显示下游需求韧性。港口库存 方面，秦皇岛港560万吨、环渤海港2689万吨库存处于同期高位水平。7月10日夏季全国煤炭交易会强调 电煤中长期合同履约和供需动态平衡，中电联预计2025年 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On Tuesday, coking coal futures experienced a rebound after a decline due to falling crude oil prices, with coking coal main contract rising 0.75% to 804.5 CNY/ton and coke main contract increasing 1.46% to 1387.5 CNY/ton [1] - The import volume of Mongolian coking coal has become a significant factor in port inventory reduction, with current port inventory around 3 million tons, which has increased to 4 million tons after the restoration of customs clearance [1][2] - The overall supply of coking coal remains loose, with no significant improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals despite a decrease in import volumes [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Steel mills' daily molten iron production has stabilized around 2.42 million tons, with a profitability rate of approximately 58%, but high molten iron levels have not effectively reduced coking coal inventory [2] - The demand for coking coal is expected to remain weak, with the fourth round of coke price reductions leading to a drop of 240-250 CNY/ton [2][3] - The coal market is anticipated to see an increase in supply exceeding demand in early July, potentially stabilizing coal prices if extreme weather does not occur [4] Group 3: Future Price Trends - The market sentiment remains cautious, with the price support for coking coal relatively weak due to the ongoing loose supply conditions [3][6] - The recent geopolitical tensions have subsided, leading to a significant drop in crude oil futures, which may influence energy prices [7] - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the near term due to mixed market factors and ongoing supply pressures [6][7]

Group 1: Copper Industry - In May, domestic air conditioner sales increased by 2.3%, while production decreased by 1.8%. The copper industry is facing supply disruptions, with both domestic production and imports of scrap copper declining in May. Demand for air conditioning is weaker than expected, leading to potential risks in copper demand. Short-term copper prices are expected to remain volatile, with a gradual increase anticipated following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the US [4]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Industry - The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran continues to dominate the crude oil market. On June 22, the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, marking its formal involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain favorable, with a continued positive outlook for major oil companies and related services [5]. Group 3: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - The "618" shopping festival results indicate a significant growth in the pet economy, with over 400 pet brands reporting sales increases of over 100% year-on-year. The number of pet transaction users grew by 32%, and new pet owners increased by 39% [6]. Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal market is experiencing a supply contraction and a rebound in demand, suggesting that coal prices may have reached a temporary bottom. Port coal prices are stable, and there has been an increase in iron and steel production. Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port have decreased and are now lower than the same period last year [8]. Group 5: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The wind power sector is advised to focus on wind turbine manufacturers, as second-quarter performance may be under pressure. The solid-state battery sector is seeing increased capital expenditure due to advancements in production lines and policy support. The photovoltaic sector is expected to benefit from upcoming supply and demand policies, with a focus on integrated companies with lower production costs [9]. Group 6: Retail Industry - The recent promotional period concluded with stable results, as e-commerce platforms reported a cumulative sales figure of 855.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.2% year-on-year increase. Instant retail sales reached 29.6 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year. This year, platforms are focusing more on ecosystem building and consumer experience, with instant retail gaining traction [10]. Group 7: Pharmaceutical Industry - The review process for innovative drugs is accelerating, with the National Medical Products Administration seeking opinions on optimizing clinical trial approvals. This is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector. Long-term, the policy aims to support the transition of Chinese innovative drugs from a combination of imitation and innovation to global original research [11].

Group 1 - The domestic coal production in China is expected to remain high in May, with domestic coal prices experiencing significant adjustments, leading to a loss of cost competitiveness for some domestic and foreign supply [1] - The narrowing price advantage of imported coal has prompted some end-users to shift towards purchasing domestic coal, providing certain support to port coal prices [1] - The market has been in a "high supply + high inventory + weak demand" situation for nearly six months, indicating a sensitivity to positive factors [1] Group 2 - There is a potential for a slight increase in coal prices towards the end of May and early June, driven by traders speculating on power plants' demand for replenishing stocks during the summer peak [1] - Despite the potential price increase, the overall inventory levels remain high compared to the previous year, suggesting that any price rise will be limited and short-lived [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Insights - Port inventory is being reduced, and coal prices may be nearing the bottom. Some production areas have seen an increase in coal prices, but without a significant reduction in inventory, a price turning point is unlikely [10][11] - Coking coal prices continue to decline, and total inventory in the coking steel sector is decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a weak trend for coking coal prices [24][25] - The equity market shows mixed performance, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the index. Recent geopolitical events have heightened risk aversion, impacting market sentiment [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market experienced mixed results, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the indices. The average market turnover was 1.3 trillion yuan, with daily financing fluctuating around 100 billion yuan [6][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, closing at 3377 points, while the CSI 300 Index also fell by 0.25%, closing at 3864.18 points. The coal sector saw a slight decline of 0.50%, closing at 2565.75 points [6][10] Thermal Coal - Port inventory is being reduced, with northern ports seeing a decrease in coal inventory to below 29 million tons. Daily average coal consumption at southern power plants increased to 1.804 million tons, up 4.6% week-on-week [10][16] - The price of thermal coal has shown mixed fluctuations, with some production areas experiencing price increases. However, the overall market is expected to face pressure due to weak demand [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continue to decline, with the average price for various types of coking coal dropping significantly. The market is characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream steel companies [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 85.8%, with a slight decrease week-on-week. The overall supply remains relatively sufficient [24][27] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has increased, with an average of 75 vessels per day. Shipping prices have also decreased, reflecting a broader trend in the coal transportation market [32][33] Industry News - The U.S. government has approved plans for coal mining companies to expand operations to boost exports to Asia. This move is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with overseas allies [35] - Shanxi Province aims to increase coalbed methane reserves by 20% year-on-year by the end of 2025, highlighting efforts to optimize resource utilization [35][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that coal prices are expected to be close to their annual low due to a combination of demand and supply factors, particularly as the summer consumption peak approaches [1] - The report highlights a potential decline in supply, especially from regions like Xinjiang and Indonesia, which may further support the expectation of lower coal prices [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a rebound, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with a 3.6% increase in May compared to a 1.8% increase in the index, resulting in a 1.7 percentage point outperformance [2] - Domestic coal supply is expected to decrease significantly by April 2025, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 18 million tons in national raw coal production, but a month-on-month decrease of about 51 million tons [2][17] - The overall demand for coal is expected to decline as April enters a demand off-season, with a slight increase in total coal consumption year-on-year [3][39] - High inventory levels at ports and key coal mines are observed, with power plant inventories showing a slight decrease [4][81] Supply - In April, domestic coal production decreased by 51 million tons month-on-month, while coal imports remained relatively low [2][25] - The total raw coal production from January to April 2024 reached 1.58 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [17] - The coal import volume in April was 37.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [25][28] Demand - The overall coal demand is expected to decline, with April seeing a decrease in commodity coal consumption, although chemical coal demand remains strong [3][39] - In April, the total coal consumption was 390 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3] - The electricity consumption in April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slightly declined compared to March [42] Inventory - Port and key coal mine inventories remain high, with main ports maintaining elevated stock levels [4][81] - As of May 26, the total inventory at major ports was 76.97 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.42% [83] - The inventory of the six major power generation groups was slightly lower year-on-year, indicating a potential risk of self-ignition and heat value decline due to high temperatures [81] Price - As the peak season approaches, the price of thermal coal has stabilized, while coking coal prices are under downward pressure [4][5] - The market sentiment has improved towards the end of May, leading to a halt in the decline of coal prices [4] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to focus on coal companies with stable performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5] - Attention should also be given to growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy, Jinko Coal Industry, and Huaibei Mining [5]

Group 1 - Global thermal coal prices have dropped to a four-and-a-half-year low, now only one-fourth of the peak during the 2022 energy crisis, due to oversupply and inventory surges, particularly from record-high domestic coal production in China and increased inventories in India [1] - Analysts warn that further declines in coal prices may still be ahead, as the current supply-demand balance is loose, primarily due to weak demand expectations from high coal-consuming sectors like real estate and infrastructure [1] - However, rising temperatures may lead to increased coal demand, and with recent reductions in domestic coal production enthusiasm and a shift from increasing to decreasing coal imports, coal prices may find new support [1] Group 2 - The domestic economy is currently weak, and with the U.S. in a rate-cutting cycle and domestic interest rates also declining, coal remains a stable investment option, particularly for insurance funds that have begun new allocation periods [2] - Following the March Two Sessions, both thermal and coking coal prices are at low levels, and with ongoing improvements in supply-demand fundamentals, both types of coal are expected to stabilize and rebound [2] - The macroeconomic policies have shown significant strength, and the market anticipates real effects on demand following policy implementation, with coal demand and prices expected to trend upwards after the 2025 Two Sessions and the arrival of the spring construction season [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed coal companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171), China Coal Energy Company (01898), China Shenhua Energy Company (01088), and Yancoal Australia (03668) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall domestic coal supply remains abundant, with stable production in major coal - producing areas. The coal开工率 in Ordos and Yulin regions is high, with a daily output of about 4 million tons. [3] - Power plant inventories are high and the destocking process is slow. Due to the impact of imported coal, power plants only make necessary purchases. The decline in port out - shipments leads to passive inventory accumulation at ports, and the available resources for sale are abundant. [3] - As the temperature rises nationwide, the daily coal consumption of power plants will increase seasonally, but the number of available inventory days is high, and the port FOB price continues to decline. [3] - In the pithead area, the operating rate of coal - chemical products is high, and the demand for chemical coal is fair. However, the long - term agreement coal of power plants overflows, weakening the support for pithead prices. It is expected that coal prices will continue to decline. [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price and Spread - Pithead prices are continuously falling. As of May 20, the 5500K pithead price in Datong was 455 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week; in Ordos, it was 425 yuan/ton, also down 30 yuan/ton; and the 5800K pithead price in Yulin was 469 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from last week. [8] - Port FOB prices continue to decline. [11] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Production**: The production of major coal - producing area mines is stable. The coal开工率 in Ordos and Yulin regions is high, with a daily output of about 4 million tons. [3] - **Inventory**: Port inventories are high but have decreased. As of May 20, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was about 29.73 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from the high level. Coastal power plant inventories are slowly destocking, and inland power plant inventories remain high. The total inventory of national power plants is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, and the destocking speed is slow. [3] - **Consumption**: The daily consumption of coastal power plants is hovering at a low level, and the destocking is slow. The daily consumption of inland power plants is slowly increasing, and the inventory is continuously destocking. The total daily consumption of national power plants is slowly increasing, but the inventory is accumulating. The daily consumption of key national power plants is declining, and the inventory is continuously destocking. [3][65][70] - **Coal - chemical industry**: The operating rate of coal - chemical products such as methanol and urea is high, and the weekly chemical coal consumption is also at a certain level. The profit of coal - chemical products is also a factor affecting coal demand. [82][85][87] - **Power generation**: The total power generation has declined. The monthly thermal power generation has decreased by 6% year - on - year, and the proportion of thermal power generation has also changed. The power generation of hydropower, new energy, etc. also shows different trends. [96][100][102] - **Freight**: Domestic coastal freight rates have stabilized at the bottom, and international sea freight rates are also an influencing factor. [103][105] 3.3 Meso - level Data - From January to April, China imported 152.67 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. [107] - From January to April, the cumulative coal production was 1.58473 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. [111]

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The coal inventory at northern ports has reached a historical high of approximately 31 million tons, primarily constituted by 14 large enterprises, accounting for 60% of the total inventory, while the remaining 40% is held by traders [1][3][22]. - Recent declines in coal prices are attributed to the selling actions of large groups and traders, driven by storage pressures and financial constraints [1][4]. Key Points Coal Inventory and Composition - The majority of the port inventory consists of Shanxi coal, making up about 60%, with the rest from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi [1][6]. - Major companies like Jieneng, Guoneng, and Zhongmei hold significant portions of the inventory, with Jieneng at 4.916 million tons, Guoneng at 3.427 million tons, and Zhongmei at 3.588 million tons [3][6]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Coal prices are expected to stabilize around 600 RMB per ton by late May, with potential further declines in July and August, followed by a possible increase in September due to seasonal demand [2][11][14]. - The operational cost breakeven point for power plants is around 740 RMB per ton, which serves as a critical resistance level for price increases [18][22]. Supply and Demand Factors - The demand side has a more significant impact on recent price declines, with downstream regions experiencing price drops and low transaction volumes [2][4]. - The State Development and Reform Commission (SDRC) has mandated power plants to increase coal inventory to 215 million tons by June 10, aiming for a long-term contract fulfillment rate of over 90%, which may stabilize prices in the short term [1][8][10]. Storage and Self-Combustion Risks - There have been reports of coal self-combustion incidents, particularly with high moisture content coals, which poses a risk for traders holding large inventories [5][6]. - The storage duration for coal can lead to self-combustion within as little as 20 days under certain conditions, influencing traders' decisions to sell [5]. Market Structure and Future Outlook - The current high inventory levels at ports may lead to production cuts or shutdowns at coal mines, as companies face storage limitations [8][22]. - The market is expected to experience a slight upward trend in prices during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," driven by increased electricity demand and potential production cuts from large enterprises [15][16]. Import Market Dynamics - Domestic coal prices are currently under pressure from imported coal, particularly from Mongolia and Russia, with significant price differentials affecting trading decisions [19][23]. - The price of Mongolian coal is approximately 745 RMB per ton, which is competitive compared to domestic coal prices [20][23]. Additional Insights - The coal market is currently characterized by high inventory levels, price volatility, and regulatory pressures aimed at stabilizing supply and demand dynamics [1][22]. - The interplay between large enterprises and traders in managing inventory and pricing strategies will be crucial in navigating the upcoming market challenges [7][10].