天风证券指出，动力煤和焦煤共性在于，两者均在环保督察和反内卷的大政策背景下，产量承压，对煤 价的止跌企稳起到了积极作用。另一个共性在于，直接驱动煤价上涨的因素，是在极度悲观走向较为乐 观的过程中，下游可能大幅提高了采购量，而这部分的采购量并不属于终端消费量，因此仅从平衡表的 缺口看，无法预判到本轮上涨的幅度之大。在本轮反弹之后，进口量环比增量较大，替代效应或较为明 显，导致煤价在四季度见顶之后难以持续向上突破。 ...

12月以来，国内煤炭市场供需格局延续宽松态势，煤价不断下行。但后市来看，随着国内煤炭产量收 紧，国内煤炭市场供需宽松格局有望得到一定程度改善，煤价存在降后企稳的可能。 具体来看，12月以来，国内煤炭市场价格持续下行，目前仍未止跌，买涨不买跌情绪影响下，市场交易 氛围比较冷清。据卓创资讯统计数据显示，截至12月5日，山西大同Q5500大卡动力煤出矿价为615-655 元／吨，较11月底降40元／吨，降幅5.93%。 导致12月以来国内煤价持续下行的原因主要是国内煤炭市场供需格局持续宽松。从供应端来看，12月初 国内主流煤矿继续保持平稳生产，而11月底暂停生产的民营煤矿生产陆续恢复正常，同时主要中转港口 煤炭库存量逐步累积，国内煤炭供应整体比较充足。 从需求端来看，用煤企业对高价比较抵触，采购积极性不佳，满足刚需为主，而买涨不买跌情绪影响下 贸易商投机需求也相对有限，整体导致需求端对市场支撑不足。在此背景下，国内煤价持续下行。值得 关注的是，煤价的松动下行，进一步加重市场参与者的短期悲观情绪，交易更显冷清。在此背景下，预 计煤价暂无明显止跌信号，或继续保持偏弱调整态势。 但往后看，受国内煤炭市场供需格局可能收紧的 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 【2025.12.1-2025.12.7】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2025.12.9 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 煤炭供需弱平衡，政策或利于红利布局 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤供给基本稳定，期待需求释放。本周，煤炭主产区供应 量基本稳定，由于终端需求不及预期，煤价继续回调，市场观 望情绪浓烈，随着供暖需求释放，煤价有望企稳回升。 焦煤需求压缩，预计煤价震荡运行。本周，焦炭首轮提降落地， 需求进一步压缩，导致煤价继续承压运行，随着下游冬储补库 需求释放、国内煤矿供应低位，预计煤价震荡运行。 权益市场涨跌互现，煤炭跑赢指数。美股科技继续反弹，外部 流动性宽松预期支撑风险资产；我国金融监管总局调整险资投 资股票的风险因子，预计将为 A 股带来超千亿元增量资金；证 监会放宽券商杠杆限制、起草 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and others, indicating a positive outlook for the coal mining sector [9]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price dynamics are primarily driven by "real demand" rather than speculative demand, with expectations of increased consumption as colder weather approaches [2][6]. - The coal market is experiencing a phase of price adjustment due to a lack of significant demand, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise as winter progresses and consumption increases [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure, the overall upward trend remains intact due to supply constraints and the potential for demand to pick up [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.54%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.18 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 824 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7 CNY/ton [35][76]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, leading to price adjustments. The supply remains stable, but demand is not meeting expectations, causing inventory pressures [11][14]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are declining due to reduced purchasing from downstream sectors, with many coking enterprises pausing purchases to manage existing inventory [40][50]. - **Coke**: The first round of price reductions has begun, with steel mills becoming more cautious in their procurement strategies [56][74]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of 50-130 CNY/ton across various grades, with expectations for further price drops in the short term [50][56]. - The average profit per ton of coke has increased, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for coking enterprises despite the overall market weakness [70][74]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory levels for both thermal and coking coal are rising, with many downstream buyers halting purchases, leading to increased stockpiles at coal mines [45][56]. - The report highlights that the effective supply of domestic coking coal may gradually shrink due to regulatory pressures and limited new capacity [57][58].

（来源：中国经济时报） 转自：中国经济时报 作为煤炭主产区，山西煤价的细微变动都牵动着市场神经。从最新数据看，此前一路高歌的煤价已踩 下"减速阀"，且不同煤种走势差异明显。 动力煤市场率先呈现"降温"迹象。虽然北方供暖陆续启动，电厂机组开工率提升，但企业采购更青睐价 格稳定的长协货源，对高价市场煤接受度不高。北方港口库存也印证了这一趋势，秦皇岛港、曹妃甸 港、京唐港合计库存2310万吨，周环比增加90万吨。反映到价格上，山西省动力煤发热量5000—5500大 卡，均价686元/吨，环比上涨0.4%，部分矿区坑口报价已出现小幅回调。 图片来源/新华社 ■中国经济时报记者 曹英 ■郑锦玮 11月14日，中国太原煤炭交易中心有限公司发布的2025年第42期中国太原煤炭价格指数显示，山西省煤 价整体涨势已明显收敛，市场氛围较此前有所转弱。记者从山西省商务厅获悉，11月10日至16日，全省 煤炭均价955.92元/吨，虽环比仍上涨2.9%，但不同煤种表现分化，动力煤涨势放缓、炼焦煤涨跌互 现，唯有无烟煤保持稳健上涨态势，呈现出"整体趋稳、结构分化"的全新格局。 三大煤种表现分化 涨势节奏放缓 需求端的结构性差异则直接导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that while port coal prices remain stable, prices in production areas are continuing to rise, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand from power plants [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite entering the peak season, the likelihood of a significant increase in supply from production areas is low due to strong regulatory measures [1]. - The daily coal consumption by power plants is continuously increasing, and as temperatures drop and industrial production accelerates towards year-end, the demand for electricity and coal is expected to gradually materialize [1]. Inventory and Pricing Outlook - Port inventories have accumulated due to shipping disruptions, but with improving weather conditions, these inventories are expected to decrease [1]. - The available cargo at ports remains tight due to railway capacity limitations, and strong support for shipping costs is noted [1]. - Once demand is fully released, there is potential for coal prices to rise, with a possibility of reaching a peak of 1000 yuan/ton by year-end [1].

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks continue to decline, with notable drops in major companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy, indicating a bearish trend in the coal sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, China Coal Energy (01898) fell by 4.48% to HKD 10.87, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) decreased by 3.71% to HKD 10.63, China Shenhua Energy (01088) dropped by 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and Yancoal Australia (03668) declined by 0.87% to HKD 27.22 [1] Group 2: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have risen above RMB 830 per ton, but a short-term peak in coal prices may have been reached. In October, the output of industrial raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, suggesting a long-term upward trend in coal prices remains intact [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongwu Securities, coal companies are expected to see their earnings bottom out starting from the third quarter, with coal prices projected to stabilize as they are anticipated to reach a low point in Q2 2025. This stability is expected to benefit leading companies, ensuring consistent profitability [1] - The expected decline in insurance capital costs may lead to a decrease in dividend yields for major players like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal from approximately 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% by mid-2026 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks continue to decline, with China Coal Energy (601898) down 4.48% to HKD 10.87, Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) down 3.71% to HKD 10.63, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and Yancoal Australia (03668) down 0.87% to HKD 27.22 [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, but the short-term surge may be coming to an end. In October, the output of industrial raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the current price increase, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities suggests that high dividend logic indicates coal prices are expected to bottom out in Q2 2025, with coal companies' performance starting to recover from Q3. Future stability in coal prices is anticipated to support sustained profitability for leading companies [1] - It is projected that as insurance capital costs continue to decline, high dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) may see their dividend yield decrease from approximately 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% by mid-2026 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (01088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (01898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices expected through the first three quarters of 2025, there has been a noticeable quarter-on-quarter recovery in coal prices in the third quarter due to the impact of "anti-involution" [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, and it is believed that the short-term unexpected rise in coal prices may be coming to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent rise in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices is unlikely to change [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks have seen significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (601898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - The coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year until the third quarter of 2025, with coal companies' performance also expected to drop year-on-year. However, due to the "anti-involution" effect, coal prices have shown a significant recovery on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, leading to improved quarterly performance for coal companies [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, if coal prices rise above CNY 830 per ton, the short-term unexpected increase in coal prices may come to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remained stable on a month-on-month basis [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent increase in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry. This core change indicates that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will not be altered [1]