（来源：中国经济时报） 转自：中国经济时报 作为煤炭主产区，山西煤价的细微变动都牵动着市场神经。从最新数据看，此前一路高歌的煤价已踩 下"减速阀"，且不同煤种走势差异明显。 动力煤市场率先呈现"降温"迹象。虽然北方供暖陆续启动，电厂机组开工率提升，但企业采购更青睐价 格稳定的长协货源，对高价市场煤接受度不高。北方港口库存也印证了这一趋势，秦皇岛港、曹妃甸 港、京唐港合计库存2310万吨，周环比增加90万吨。反映到价格上，山西省动力煤发热量5000—5500大 卡，均价686元/吨，环比上涨0.4%，部分矿区坑口报价已出现小幅回调。 图片来源/新华社 ■中国经济时报记者 曹英 ■郑锦玮 11月14日，中国太原煤炭交易中心有限公司发布的2025年第42期中国太原煤炭价格指数显示，山西省煤 价整体涨势已明显收敛，市场氛围较此前有所转弱。记者从山西省商务厅获悉，11月10日至16日，全省 煤炭均价955.92元/吨，虽环比仍上涨2.9%，但不同煤种表现分化，动力煤涨势放缓、炼焦煤涨跌互 现，唯有无烟煤保持稳健上涨态势，呈现出"整体趋稳、结构分化"的全新格局。 三大煤种表现分化 涨势节奏放缓 需求端的结构性差异则直接导 ...

（文章来源：新京报） 新京报贝壳财经讯 11月23日，国联民生证券发布研报称，本周港口煤价暂稳，产地煤价继续上涨。基 本面来看，即使进入旺季，强监管下产地供应大幅提升可能性较低，供给端仍受限；需求端电厂日耗持 续提升，伴随后续进一步降温以及工业生产进入年底冲刺阶段，用电用煤旺季需求将逐步兑现；本周港 口库存受封航影响有所累积，但伴随天气好转库存将逐步下降，同时在铁路运力限制下，港口可流通货 源仍偏紧，叠加发运成本支撑较强，待需求充分释放后，煤价涨价动能持续，年底瞬间高点或冲高至 1000元/吨。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股延续跌势，截至发稿，中煤能源(01898)跌4.48%，报10.87港元；兖矿能源 (01171)跌3.71%，报10.63港元；中国神华(01088)跌1.56%，报40.36港元；兖煤澳大利亚(03668)跌 0.87%，报27.22港元。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，煤价继续上涨至830元/吨以上，短期煤价超预期上涨或告一段落。10月份， 规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降2.3%，但环比持平。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的核心原 因，是5月份以来煤炭行业供需格局发生根本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的大趋势 不会改变。 东吴证券则表示，从高股息逻辑分析，受益于煤价在2025年二季度见底，煤炭上市公司业绩从三季度开 始触底，预计未来煤价相对稳定造就龙头公司持续盈利稳定。预期随着保险资金成本的持续下降，最终 高分红标的中国神华、陕西煤业股息率将有望从2025年4.5%左右股息率下降至2026年中3.5%左右。 ...

Group 1 - Coal stocks continue to decline, with China Coal Energy (601898) down 4.48% to HKD 10.87, Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) down 3.71% to HKD 10.63, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and Yancoal Australia (03668) down 0.87% to HKD 27.22 [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, but the short-term surge may be coming to an end. In October, the output of industrial raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the current price increase, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities suggests that high dividend logic indicates coal prices are expected to bottom out in Q2 2025, with coal companies' performance starting to recover from Q3. Future stability in coal prices is anticipated to support sustained profitability for leading companies [1] - It is projected that as insurance capital costs continue to decline, high dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) may see their dividend yield decrease from approximately 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% by mid-2026 [1]

煤炭股跌幅居前，截至发稿，兖矿能源(01171)跌3.57%，报11.06港元；兖煤澳洲(03668)跌3.42%，报 27.64港元；中国神华(01088)跌2.73%，报40.6港元；中煤能源(01898)跌2.47%，报11.46港元。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，煤价继续上涨至830元/吨以上，我们认为短期煤价超预期上涨或告一段落。 10月份，规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降2.3%，但环比持平。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的 核心原因，是5月份以来煤炭行业供需格局发生根本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的 大趋势不会改变。 消息面上，2025年前三季度煤价仍同比下跌，煤企业绩同比仍回落，但在"反内卷"影响之下，第三季度 煤炭价格已环比明显修复，煤企三季度业绩环比亦明显改善。 ...

Group 1 - Coal stocks have seen significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (601898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - The coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year until the third quarter of 2025, with coal companies' performance also expected to drop year-on-year. However, due to the "anti-involution" effect, coal prices have shown a significant recovery on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, leading to improved quarterly performance for coal companies [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, if coal prices rise above CNY 830 per ton, the short-term unexpected increase in coal prices may come to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remained stable on a month-on-month basis [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent increase in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry. This core change indicates that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will not be altered [1]

研究所 能源化工研发报告 煤炭日报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 【逻辑分析】 供应方面，限产影响仍存，晋陕蒙煤炭主产地煤矿开工率整体平稳，截 11 月 14 日， 鄂尔多斯地区煤矿开工率 71%，榆林地区煤矿开工率 46%，鄂榆两市煤炭日均产量 390 万吨以上，国内供应整体收紧。进口方面，中国需求有所走弱，国际煤价依旧上涨。需 求端，本周需求表现一般，中国采购需求有所走弱，日韩采购表现一般，印度依旧未见 采购需求好转；供应端，印尼降水依旧影响货源偏紧，海外货盘数量不多，矿方挺价意 愿较浓。。需求端，当前多数电厂运行负荷处于 60% - 70%的区间，运行较为平稳，电厂 库存处于中高位水平。在市场采购方面，多数电厂优先选择兑现长协合同，市场上仅有 少量刚需进行压价采购。对于后期市场走势，多数市场参与者分析指出，当前全国再度 迎来一波大面积降温。随着气温进一步下降，居民用电和供暖需求将持续攀升，这将直 接带动电厂日耗进一步增加。库存方面，铁路运输恢复正常，大秦线日均运量 130 万吨， 呼局批车数 30 列附近，调入恢复，港口调入平稳，调出持续高位，港口库存整体平稳， 截止 11 ...

Summary of Huaihe Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huaihe Energy - **Industry**: Power Generation and Coal Mining Key Financial Metrics - **Electricity Generation**: 12.375 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 9.63% year-on-year [2][3] - **Raw Coal Production**: 4.4629 million tons, an increase of 8.18% year-on-year [2][4] - **Commodity Coal Production**: 3.6106 million tons, an increase of 7.89% year-on-year [2][4] - **Electricity Trading Volume**: 9.423 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.25% year-on-year [2][4] - **Coal Trade Volume**: 26.28 million tons, an increase of 12% year-on-year [2][4] - **Revenue**: 21.3 billion CNY [3] - **Total Profit**: 928 million CNY [3] - **Net Profit**: 792 million CNY [3] - **Total Assets**: 23.847 billion CNY [3] - **Net Assets**: 12.307 billion CNY [3] - **Earnings Per Share**: 0.19 CNY [3] - **Debt Ratio**: 41.61% [3] Restructuring and Capacity Expansion - **Restructuring Status**: Application submitted to the CSRC, expected approval next week [2][5] - **Post-Reorganization Capacity**: - Controlling installed capacity will reach 11 million kW - Equity installed capacity will reach 14.8 million kW [2][6][10] - **New Projects**: - Panji Phase II and Xieqiao Power Plant have commenced operations [2][6] - Four new units expected to be operational by the end of the year [2][6] Profitability and Market Conditions - **Profit Level**: Panji Phase I profit per kWh is 0.055 CNY [7] - **Electricity Price Trends**: - Decrease in on-grid electricity price by 0.02 CNY, but cost per kWh also decreased by 0.01 CNY, maintaining overall profitability [7] - Uncertainty in 2026 electricity prices due to market pressures, but coal price recovery and national price stabilization policies provide support [7] Future Outlook - **Performance Expectations**: Optimistic outlook for future performance due to enhanced asset quality and shared cost advantages from new projects [8] - **Asset Valuation Method**: Utilizes asset-based valuation due to the capital-intensive nature of the coal and power industry [9] - **Coal Supply Assurance**: Coal supply primarily secured through company-owned mines, supplemented by long-term contracts with Huainan Mining [11] Dividend Policy - **Dividend Commitment**: Company commits to a minimum annual cash dividend of 0.19 CNY per share (before tax) from 2025 to 2027 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with major companies like China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy reporting drops in their stock prices amid a backdrop of falling coal prices and mixed quarterly performance [1] Company Performance - China Coal Energy reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.86 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to a 31.5% drop in the first half of the year [1] - China Shenhua Energy's net profit for Q3 was 14.411 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] Market Trends - Coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2025, although there has been a noticeable recovery in Q3 compared to previous quarters [1] - The current coal prices are nearing short-term peaks, with expectations of a slight decline as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, indicating a long-term upward trend in coal prices [1]

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabei Mining - **Period**: First three quarters of 2025 - **Revenue**: 31.8 billion CNY - **Net Profit**: 1.07 billion CNY, a significant decrease of 73.7% year-on-year due to falling coal and coke prices [2][3] Key Points Industry Performance - **Coal Prices**: Average selling price of coal decreased by 311 CNY/ton year-on-year, while coke prices fell by 709 CNY/ton [2] - **Production Decline**: Coal production decreased by 2.06 million tons year-on-year, with sales also down by 2.06 million tons due to complex geological conditions and difficulties in transitioning between old and new working faces [2][4] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated recovery of production to second-quarter levels in Q4 2025, contingent on geological conditions and operational stability [8] Coal Segment - **Production Data**: - Total coal production: 13.04 million tons - Total coal sales: 9.81 million tons - Average selling price: 804 CNY/ton, down from previous year [3][4] - **Market Conditions**: National coal enterprises are facing profit pressures due to price declines, but there is an expectation of price recovery in Q4 due to tight supply and increased demand from steel companies [4][14] Coal Chemical Segment - **Coke and Ethanol Production**: - Coke production: 2.64 million tons, sales: 2.67 million tons, average price: 1,585 CNY/ton, down 709 CNY/ton [6] - Ethanol production: 380,000 tons, sales: 360,000 tons, average price: 5,604 CNY/ton, down 298 CNY/ton [6] - **Financial Impact**: Revenue from this segment was 6.9 billion CNY, a decrease of 800 million CNY year-on-year, but internal controls helped reduce losses by 500 million CNY [6][18] Power and Non-Coal Mining Business - **Power Generation**: Generated 3.45 billion kWh, revenue of 1.62 billion CNY, net profit of approximately 70 million CNY [7] - **Non-Coal Mining**: Revenue of 1.1 billion CNY, profit of 240 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 36 million CNY [7] Future Production Expectations - **Happiness Mine**: Currently not in production, expected to resume in Q1 2026, contributing approximately 2 million tons annually post-recovery [10][12] - **Taohutu Coal Mine**: Main engineering completed, expected to start production in H1 2026, with high-quality coal expected to sell at around 550 CNY/ton [13] Cost and Investment Insights - **Cost Increase**: Significant increase in total operating costs due to rising raw material prices and new project preparations, although overall costs are expected to decrease year-on-year [21] - **Investment Growth**: Increased cash outflow for investments primarily in Taohutu Coal Mine and new power generation projects [22] Conclusion - The company is navigating a challenging market with significant price declines impacting profitability. However, there are signs of potential recovery in production and pricing, particularly in the coal segment, which could stabilize financial performance in the upcoming quarters [2][4][14]