[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 8 期） 节后煤炭需求稳步回升，海外动力煤价普遍上涨 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-01 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 煤炭开采 沪深300 [Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in fund holdings in the coal sector, with total market value rising to 6.874 billion yuan in Q4 2025, up 12.13% from Q3 2025, but still at a low level compared to historical data [9]. - The report notes that the coal sector's fund holding ratio is at its lowest in three years, suggesting low investment crowding in the sector [9]. - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy are favored by funds, with significant increases in holdings for Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coal International [9]. - Short-term supply tightening and ongoing replenishment demand are expected to stabilize and potentially rebound coal prices, projected to fluctuate between 750-1000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Jinko Coal Industry and Shanxi Coal International, as well as industry leaders like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry [9]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - Fund holdings in coal stocks increased to 6.874 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a 12.13% rise from Q3 2025, with a holding ratio of approximately 0.36% of total fund holdings [9]. - The report identifies the top five companies by fund holdings, including China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry, with notable increases in holdings for Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coal International [9]. Price Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices will stabilize and rebound due to supply constraints and replenishment needs, with a seasonal fluctuation expected between 750-1000 yuan per ton [9]. - The analysis indicates that the coal industry is likely to return to a state of basic supply-demand balance in 2023-2024, driven by production cuts and regulatory normalization [9].

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a stable upward trend in prices due to a tightening supply outlook and high demand levels, particularly driven by cold weather conditions [7][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventories, with port inventories down to 26.28 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.22% [8]. - The daily coal consumption in 25 provinces reached 6.876 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.14% and a year-on-year increase of 19.42% [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,903.919 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,862.614 billion yuan [2][5]. 2. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with a recent price of 690 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Coking coal prices have increased by 30 yuan per ton at the port, indicating a strong demand from steel production [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic coal supply is stable but shows signs of marginal contraction as production halts are anticipated due to the upcoming holiday season [7][8]. - The report forecasts that coal imports may continue to decline, with a projected decrease of 11.57% in 2025 compared to 2024 [7]. 4. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong dividend policies and growth prospects, with expected dividends of 75% to 88% of distributable profits [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong cash flow and low valuations, recommending investments in firms like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [22]. Core Insights - The coal industry is anticipated to see a recovery in prices and profits in the second half of 2025, driven by seasonal demand and improved market conditions [1]. - Domestic raw coal production is projected to grow slightly by 1.2% year-on-year in 2025, while coal imports are expected to decline by 9.6% [2][11]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to witness a significant rebound in both thermal coal and coking coal prices, with thermal coal prices rising approximately 13.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][15]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic raw coal production for 2025 is estimated at 4.832 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. Monthly production figures for October, November, and December are projected at 407 million, 427 million, and 437 million tons, respectively, with slight declines in growth rates [5]. - Coal imports for 2025 are expected to total 490 million tons, a decrease of 9.6% compared to the previous year, with notable monthly fluctuations in the last quarter [11]. Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the average spot price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is projected to be around 767 RMB/ton, down 6.99% year-on-year but up 13.9% from Q3 2025 [14][15]. - Coking coal prices are also expected to rise, with the average price for Shanxi's main coking coal reaching 1,727 RMB/ton, marking a 0.8% increase year-on-year and a 10.44% increase from Q3 2025 [15]. Company Performance Forecasts - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in Q4 2025. China Shenhua is projected to achieve a net profit of 14.129 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.16% [16]. - Other companies such as TBEA and Erdos are also expected to show significant profit growth, while companies like Shaanxi Coal and Energy may see declines due to price pressures [16]. Valuation Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for key coal companies, indicating their expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and beyond, providing insights into their market positioning [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a "Look Forward" investment rating for 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in domestic raw coal production in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, reaching 4.832 billion tons. However, coal imports are expected to decline by 9.6% to 490 million tons [3][8]. - In Q4 2025, both thermal coal and coking coal prices are projected to rebound significantly, with thermal coal prices increasing by approximately 13.9% from Q3 2025 [3][20]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with some exceeding expectations, while others may fall short [3][21]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic raw coal production growth is slowing, with a total output of 4.832 billion tons in 2025, reflecting a 1.2% increase from 2024. Monthly production figures for October, November, and December show slight declines [3][8]. - Coal imports are projected to decrease to 490 million tons in 2025, a 9.6% drop compared to the previous year, with significant monthly fluctuations noted in Q4 [15][16]. Price Trends - Q4 2025 sees a notable increase in both thermal and coking coal prices, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal at approximately 767 CNY/ton, a 13.9% increase from Q3 2025 [3][20]. - Coking coal prices are also on the rise, with the average price for Shanxi's main coking coal reaching 1727 CNY/ton, marking a 10.44% increase from Q3 2025 [20]. Company Performance Forecasts - Six companies are expected to exceed profit expectations in Q4 2025, including China Shenhua, TBEA, and others, with projected profits showing significant year-on-year growth [3][21]. - Ten companies are anticipated to meet expectations, while one company, Shaanxi Black Cat, is expected to underperform [3][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth-oriented thermal coal companies such as TBEA and Jinkong Coal, as well as stable dividend-paying companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [3][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that coal prices are expected to rebound due to a combination of factors including low daily consumption, limited supply growth, and an anticipated improvement in supply-demand dynamics before the Spring Festival [1][3]. - In December, coal imports in China increased significantly to 58.6 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, but the overall annual imports decreased by 9.6% to 490 million tons [2]. - The report highlights that the supply side is expected to remain constrained due to factors such as "anti-involution" policies and safety regulations, while demand is projected to be relatively stable, potentially leading to a shift from a loose supply-demand situation to a more balanced or tight one [2][3]. Group 2 - As of January 16, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 697 RMB per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week but a significant decrease of 8.3% year-on-year [3]. - The average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 6.2 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year, while average inventory levels were 127.15 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [3]. - The report indicates that the first round of price increases for coke has begun, with an increase of 50-55 RMB per ton, while the main coking coal price remains stable at 1,770 RMB per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [4]. Group 3 - The report suggests that companies such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and Shanxi Coal International are worth monitoring due to their potential benefits from the evolving coal market dynamics [6]. - It is recommended to pay attention to companies that may benefit from coal capacity reserve policies, safety improvements, and the Belt and Road Initiative, such as Zhongchuang Zhiling and Tiandi Technology [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal sector [10] Core Insights - In 2025, China's total coal and lignite imports reached 490 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% (52.43 million tons), marking the second year of negative growth in the past decade, excluding 2022. The outlook for 2026 suggests that coal imports are likely to decrease due to rising domestic coal prices, supply disruptions, and increasing costs [2][7] - The coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term, supported by seasonal demand and cost factors, despite high inventory levels limiting price increases. The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply changes and inventory replenishment rates [6][25] Summary by Sections Import Data and Trends - In 2025, coal imports from major countries showed varying trends: Indonesia (-15%), Russia (-9%), Mongolia (+5%), and Australia (-8%). The average price difference for Australian coal was negative 25 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper price inversion compared to 2024 [7][18] - The report anticipates a contraction in coal supply from major exporting countries in 2026, particularly from Indonesia, where production quotas may be reduced to around 600 million tons, down from 790 million tons in 2025 [7][8] Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 3.12%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.55 percentage points. The report notes that the thermal coal market price as of January 16 was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton week-on-week [6][25] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the coal sector, emphasizing companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned for growth amid inflationary pressures [8] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of January 15, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 6.3 million tons, with a slight year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The report indicates that power plant inventories have decreased, suggesting a tightening supply situation [25][44] - The report highlights that the supply of coking coal is stabilizing, with an increase in production capacity utilization rates, while the demand from steel mills remains steady [26][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [3][4]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to a combination of cold weather and pre-holiday stockpiling, with prices projected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [10][12]. - The report highlights a recovery in coal prices post-New Year, driven by reduced production and low inventory levels at ports [10][12]. - The focus is on companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance for 2024 [10][12]. - The report suggests that downstream replenishment has begun, leading to a stable to slightly strong outlook for coking coal prices [10][12]. - The first round of price increases for coke is anticipated due to rising raw material costs and improved steel mill profitability [10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 3.3%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [18][21]. - The best-performing stocks included 云维股份 and 江钨装备, while 大有能源 faced the largest decline [24][26]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Mongolia's coal exports increased by 7.11% year-on-year, while Australia's coal export value decreased by 13.48% [28][32]. - China's coal imports rose by 11.94% in December 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in demand [34][34]. Company Performance - New集能源 reported a 3.01% increase in raw coal production for 2025, while 中煤能源 saw an 8.0% decrease in December's coal production [44][45]. - 大有能源 projected a significant net loss for 2025, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [46][51].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance in 2026, but coal prices may perform better than in 2025 due to policy support, leading to improved profitability and dividend expectations for listed companies [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In 2026, policies and import factors may limit domestic supply, with a projected net increase in coal production of 28 million tons, corresponding to a growth rate of approximately 0.6% [2] - Domestic coal production is expected to decline year-on-year from July to November 2025 due to stricter safety regulations and overproduction checks [2] - Coal imports are anticipated to decrease by 19 to 20 million tons in 2026, influenced by production cuts in countries like Indonesia and domestic "anti-involution" policies [2] Demand Dynamics - The growth in demand is expected to be limited, with a slight year-on-year decrease in thermal coal consumption of about -0.2% in 2026 [3] - The construction and steel sectors will continue to be affected by real estate activity, leading to a decline in coal consumption, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow [3] - Chemical industry coal consumption may see a growth rate of 6% due to new coal chemical projects and widening oil-coal price differentials [3] Price Outlook - The supply pressure is expected to ease, allowing for a slight upward adjustment in coal prices, with a projected increase of 5 to 7% in the average domestic coal price for 2026 [4] - The bottom of coal prices is expected to rise due to policy support and improvements in the global coal supply-demand balance [4] Investment Strategy - The anticipated rise in coal prices is expected to improve the performance of listed companies, with dividend yields likely to see a slight increase if dividend ratios are maintained [6] - Investment opportunities are suggested along three main lines: 1. Long-term holdings in dividend-paying thermal coal leaders [6] 2. Companies benefiting from capacity expansion and favorable policies [6] 3. Companies with high elasticity that may benefit from price expectation discrepancies [6]