行 业 及 产 业 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 重要信息回顾 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 煤炭/ - ⚫ 疆煤产业链：8 月 22 日，准东开发区召开 160 万吨煤制烯烃重点项目第 12 次调度会， 聚焦山能化工、东明塑胶（东方希望）两家企业共 160 万吨煤制烯烃项目建设进度，开 展专题调度部署，要求加压奋进推动项目按节点、确保项目早投产。据新疆煤炭交易中 心，8 月 22 日，吉木萨尔县 4900 大卡沫煤坑口价 130 元/吨，环比持平；巴里坤县 5200 大卡沫煤坑口价 197 元/吨，环比持平。 ⚫ 本周日耗小幅下行、电厂库存小幅上升：据同花顺金融数据，截至 8 月 21 日，六 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Market speculation sentiment has cooled, and coal prices are gradually returning to rationality. However, short - term fundamental improvements support coal prices to run strongly, and price fluctuations remain intense. It is recommended to participate with caution [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly, with increased intraday volatility. Coking coal spot prices remained strong, and coke prices were stable after the fifth round of price hikes [2]. Supply - Side Situation - In response to over - production issues, Shanxi's verification of coal mine over - production is being deepened. Many coal mines have voluntarily reduced production, and with the approaching September parade and strict safety supervision, short - term coal mine production increases are limited [2]. - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.883 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi was 1.059 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons compared to the previous week [2]. Inventory Situation - The structural inventory pressure has been significantly alleviated. The raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 476500 tons, a decrease of 224500 tons from the high in June; the clean coal inventory is 245700 tons, a decrease of 254300 tons from the high in June [3]. Demand - Side Situation - Last week, coking plants and steel mills slowed down their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories stabilized after rising from a low level. Currently, steel mills have a good profit margin, production remains at a relatively high level, and the daily average pig iron output is over 2.4 million tons, supporting raw material demand [3]. Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace starts and coal mine resumption of production [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Market speculation sentiment has cooled, coal prices are gradually returning to rationality, but short - term fundamental improvements support coal prices to run strongly, and price fluctuations remain severe. It is recommended to participate with caution [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Report Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly, with intensified intraday fluctuations. The spot market price performance lagged behind the futures, maintaining a strong operation, and the fifth round of coke price increase was fully implemented [3] Supply Side - Regarding the tracking of over - production issues, last week, regions in Shanxi except Lvliang received documents and started to verify production. The document may not cause an obvious reduction in short - term coking coal production, but the medium - and long - term impact on coal mine production should be noted. Recently, some coal mines have faced suspension for rectification and fines due to their 2024 raw coal output exceeding the approved capacity by 33%. With the approaching September military parade, the safety supervision situation is severe, and it is expected that the short - term coal mine increment is limited [3] Inventory Status - The structural inventory pressure has been significantly alleviated. Currently, the raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 4.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.18 million tons from the high point in June; the clean coal inventory is 2.48 million tons, a decrease of 2.52 million tons from the high point in June [4] Demand Side - Last week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills slowed down. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants stabilized after rising from a low level. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, production remains at a relatively high level, and the daily average pig iron output is over 2.4 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [4] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of coal mine production [4]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][29]. Core Views - The report anticipates a recovery in coal companies' performance in the second half of 2025, driven by a rebound in coal prices after a bottoming out in the second quarter [3]. - Domestic raw coal production increased by 5.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while coal imports decreased by 11.1% [3][13]. - The average price of thermal coal and coking coal at ports fell significantly in the second quarter of 2025, with thermal coal prices dropping approximately 25.79% year-on-year [3][17]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic raw coal production reached 2.405 billion tons in the first half of 2025, up from 2.266 billion tons in the same period of 2024, with notable increases in Shanxi (10.1%) and Xinjiang (12.4%) [8][9]. - Coal imports totaled 22.2 million tons in the first half of 2025, marking an 11.1% decline compared to the previous year, with negative growth observed since March 2025 [13][18]. - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports was approximately 630 CNY/ton in Q2 2025, down from 850 CNY/ton in Q2 2024, reflecting a significant price drop [3][17]. Company Performance Forecast - Companies expected to exceed performance expectations include China Shenhua (EPS 1.24, YOY -16.62%), Electric Power Investment (EPS 1.36, YOY 3.49%), and Xinji Energy (EPS 0.38, YOY -15.78%) [3][20]. - Companies with performance in line with expectations include Shaanxi Coal (EPS 0.86, YOY -21.1%) and Yanzhou Coal (EPS 0.54, YOY -47.24%) [3][20]. - The only company expected to underperform is Shanxi Black Cat (EPS -0.25, YOY -14.61%) [3][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [3]. - It also suggests considering undervalued stocks with potential for growth, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Huabei Mining, Electric Power Investment, Yanzhou Coal, and Pingmei Shenma [3]. - Attention is drawn to Xinji Energy as a growth stock benefiting from coal-electricity integration [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - On Tuesday, coking coal futures experienced a rebound after a decline due to falling crude oil prices, with coking coal main contract rising 0.75% to 804.5 CNY/ton and coke main contract increasing 1.46% to 1387.5 CNY/ton [1] - The import volume of Mongolian coking coal has become a significant factor in port inventory reduction, with current port inventory around 3 million tons, which has increased to 4 million tons after the restoration of customs clearance [1][2] - The overall supply of coking coal remains loose, with no significant improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals despite a decrease in import volumes [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Steel mills' daily molten iron production has stabilized around 2.42 million tons, with a profitability rate of approximately 58%, but high molten iron levels have not effectively reduced coking coal inventory [2] - The demand for coking coal is expected to remain weak, with the fourth round of coke price reductions leading to a drop of 240-250 CNY/ton [2][3] - The coal market is anticipated to see an increase in supply exceeding demand in early July, potentially stabilizing coal prices if extreme weather does not occur [4] Group 3: Future Price Trends - The market sentiment remains cautious, with the price support for coking coal relatively weak due to the ongoing loose supply conditions [3][6] - The recent geopolitical tensions have subsided, leading to a significant drop in crude oil futures, which may influence energy prices [7] - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the near term due to mixed market factors and ongoing supply pressures [6][7]

Group 1: Copper Industry - In May, domestic air conditioner sales increased by 2.3%, while production decreased by 1.8%. The copper industry is facing supply disruptions, with both domestic production and imports of scrap copper declining in May. Demand for air conditioning is weaker than expected, leading to potential risks in copper demand. Short-term copper prices are expected to remain volatile, with a gradual increase anticipated following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the US [4]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Industry - The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran continues to dominate the crude oil market. On June 22, the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, marking its formal involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain favorable, with a continued positive outlook for major oil companies and related services [5]. Group 3: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - The "618" shopping festival results indicate a significant growth in the pet economy, with over 400 pet brands reporting sales increases of over 100% year-on-year. The number of pet transaction users grew by 32%, and new pet owners increased by 39% [6]. Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal market is experiencing a supply contraction and a rebound in demand, suggesting that coal prices may have reached a temporary bottom. Port coal prices are stable, and there has been an increase in iron and steel production. Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port have decreased and are now lower than the same period last year [8]. Group 5: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The wind power sector is advised to focus on wind turbine manufacturers, as second-quarter performance may be under pressure. The solid-state battery sector is seeing increased capital expenditure due to advancements in production lines and policy support. The photovoltaic sector is expected to benefit from upcoming supply and demand policies, with a focus on integrated companies with lower production costs [9]. Group 6: Retail Industry - The recent promotional period concluded with stable results, as e-commerce platforms reported a cumulative sales figure of 855.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.2% year-on-year increase. Instant retail sales reached 29.6 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year. This year, platforms are focusing more on ecosystem building and consumer experience, with instant retail gaining traction [10]. Group 7: Pharmaceutical Industry - The review process for innovative drugs is accelerating, with the National Medical Products Administration seeking opinions on optimizing clinical trial approvals. This is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector. Long-term, the policy aims to support the transition of Chinese innovative drugs from a combination of imitation and innovation to global original research [11].

Group 1 - The domestic coal production in China is expected to remain high in May, with domestic coal prices experiencing significant adjustments, leading to a loss of cost competitiveness for some domestic and foreign supply [1] - The narrowing price advantage of imported coal has prompted some end-users to shift towards purchasing domestic coal, providing certain support to port coal prices [1] - The market has been in a "high supply + high inventory + weak demand" situation for nearly six months, indicating a sensitivity to positive factors [1] Group 2 - There is a potential for a slight increase in coal prices towards the end of May and early June, driven by traders speculating on power plants' demand for replenishing stocks during the summer peak [1] - Despite the potential price increase, the overall inventory levels remain high compared to the previous year, suggesting that any price rise will be limited and short-lived [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Insights - Port inventory is being reduced, and coal prices may be nearing the bottom. Some production areas have seen an increase in coal prices, but without a significant reduction in inventory, a price turning point is unlikely [10][11] - Coking coal prices continue to decline, and total inventory in the coking steel sector is decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a weak trend for coking coal prices [24][25] - The equity market shows mixed performance, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the index. Recent geopolitical events have heightened risk aversion, impacting market sentiment [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market experienced mixed results, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the indices. The average market turnover was 1.3 trillion yuan, with daily financing fluctuating around 100 billion yuan [6][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, closing at 3377 points, while the CSI 300 Index also fell by 0.25%, closing at 3864.18 points. The coal sector saw a slight decline of 0.50%, closing at 2565.75 points [6][10] Thermal Coal - Port inventory is being reduced, with northern ports seeing a decrease in coal inventory to below 29 million tons. Daily average coal consumption at southern power plants increased to 1.804 million tons, up 4.6% week-on-week [10][16] - The price of thermal coal has shown mixed fluctuations, with some production areas experiencing price increases. However, the overall market is expected to face pressure due to weak demand [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continue to decline, with the average price for various types of coking coal dropping significantly. The market is characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream steel companies [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 85.8%, with a slight decrease week-on-week. The overall supply remains relatively sufficient [24][27] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has increased, with an average of 75 vessels per day. Shipping prices have also decreased, reflecting a broader trend in the coal transportation market [32][33] Industry News - The U.S. government has approved plans for coal mining companies to expand operations to boost exports to Asia. This move is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with overseas allies [35] - Shanxi Province aims to increase coalbed methane reserves by 20% year-on-year by the end of 2025, highlighting efforts to optimize resource utilization [35][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that coal prices are expected to be close to their annual low due to a combination of demand and supply factors, particularly as the summer consumption peak approaches [1] - The report highlights a potential decline in supply, especially from regions like Xinjiang and Indonesia, which may further support the expectation of lower coal prices [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a rebound, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with a 3.6% increase in May compared to a 1.8% increase in the index, resulting in a 1.7 percentage point outperformance [2] - Domestic coal supply is expected to decrease significantly by April 2025, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 18 million tons in national raw coal production, but a month-on-month decrease of about 51 million tons [2][17] - The overall demand for coal is expected to decline as April enters a demand off-season, with a slight increase in total coal consumption year-on-year [3][39] - High inventory levels at ports and key coal mines are observed, with power plant inventories showing a slight decrease [4][81] Supply - In April, domestic coal production decreased by 51 million tons month-on-month, while coal imports remained relatively low [2][25] - The total raw coal production from January to April 2024 reached 1.58 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [17] - The coal import volume in April was 37.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [25][28] Demand - The overall coal demand is expected to decline, with April seeing a decrease in commodity coal consumption, although chemical coal demand remains strong [3][39] - In April, the total coal consumption was 390 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3] - The electricity consumption in April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slightly declined compared to March [42] Inventory - Port and key coal mine inventories remain high, with main ports maintaining elevated stock levels [4][81] - As of May 26, the total inventory at major ports was 76.97 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.42% [83] - The inventory of the six major power generation groups was slightly lower year-on-year, indicating a potential risk of self-ignition and heat value decline due to high temperatures [81] Price - As the peak season approaches, the price of thermal coal has stabilized, while coking coal prices are under downward pressure [4][5] - The market sentiment has improved towards the end of May, leading to a halt in the decline of coal prices [4] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to focus on coal companies with stable performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5] - Attention should also be given to growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy, Jinko Coal Industry, and Huaibei Mining [5]