Summary of Haibo Shichuang's Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the energy storage system integration industry, with Haibo Shichuang being a leading player in this sector. The company is expected to benefit from significant growth in domestic energy storage installations, projected to reach 140-150 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30% driven by policy support and market demand growth [2][3][7]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Composition**: In the first half of 2025, revenue from energy storage system integration accounted for 99.77% of total revenue, while other business segments are contracting [2][5]. - **Sales Guidance**: The company has consistently revised its shipment guidance upwards, with a target of 30 GWh for 2025, and plans to gradually increase this to 70, 100, and 120 GWh in subsequent years [2][3]. - **Quarterly Performance**: In Q2 2025, actual shipments were 6.57 GWh, generating a profit of 222 million yuan, slightly exceeding expectations [2][5]. - **International Market Focus**: 65% of the company's business is concentrated in Europe, 10% in the US, and the remainder in Australia and emerging Asia-Pacific markets. The higher pricing and profitability in these regions provide strong revenue and profit support [2][3][16]. - **Operational Capacity**: By the end of 2025, the company expects to participate in operational maintenance capacity exceeding 20 GWh, contributing approximately 120 million yuan in revenue and 60 million yuan in net profit [2][18]. Financial Performance - **Profitability Forecast**: For 2025, domestic shipments are expected to be around 25 GWh with a gross margin of 16%, leading to an estimated profit of 900 million yuan. The company anticipates profits of 1.7 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.5-3.2 billion yuan from 2027 to 2028 [4][21]. - **Cost Control**: The company has demonstrated excellent cost control and supply chain management, enhancing its competitive edge and maintaining high gross margins despite market pressures [4][29]. Competitive Advantages - **Market Position**: As a leading enterprise in energy storage system integration, Haibo Shichuang benefits from significant market presence and a strong brand reputation [3][33]. - **Technological Edge**: The company possesses comprehensive self-research capabilities for core components like PCS, EMS, and BMS, which enhances product competitiveness [2][3][32]. - **Supply Agreements**: The company has secured supply agreements with major manufacturers like CATL, ensuring stable supply and pricing for battery cells [18][20]. Industry Trends - **Policy Impact**: The domestic energy storage industry is significantly influenced by policy initiatives, such as the transition from mandatory energy storage for renewables to independent energy storage systems [7][11]. - **Market Growth**: The energy storage installation market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 30% from 2024 to 2027, with optimistic projections for new installations [10][13]. Additional Insights - **Order Book**: The company anticipates approximately 30 GWh in independent energy storage orders for 2025, with a reserve of 30 GWh to meet 2026 delivery targets [22]. - **Operational Experience**: Haibo Shichuang has accumulated significant operational experience with around 40 projects, charging between 15-20 million yuan per GWh, which enhances its hardware development capabilities [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from Haibo Shichuang's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, financial outlook, and competitive advantages within the energy storage industry.

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The price of silicon materials has stabilized at a high level, supporting the differentiated performance of silicon wafers [1][2] - Battery cells are showing a steady upward trend with localized price increases, while module prices remain stable overall [1][2] - Domestic demand release is helping to maintain the resilience of the industry chain despite disturbances in the overseas market [1][2] Group 2: Wind Power - Major offshore wind power projects are being awarded, including a 1GW project by China Power Construction and a 1.2GW project by China Datang [3] - The industry chain is experiencing high prosperity driven by both domestic and international project advancements [3] Group 3: Energy Storage - Domestic policies are promoting growth in the independent energy storage market, with significant demand in Europe and emerging markets [4] - The hydrogen energy sector is developing positively, with reduced financing difficulties and national support for new technology research [4] Group 4: Electric Vehicles - China's lithium-ion battery exports reached 3 billion units from January to August 2025, marking an 18.66% year-on-year increase [6] - The extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo and remaining quotas are influencing the market dynamics [6] Group 5: Robotics and AI - Figure has completed over $1 billion in financing, indicating strong investor interest in AI applications [7] - Upcoming internal meetings at Tesla regarding robotics and autonomous driving may catalyze further developments in the sector [7] Group 6: Electric Grid Equipment - Alibaba plans to increase its capital expenditure beyond the initial 380 billion yuan, indicating a significant investment in infrastructure [5] - The energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold by 2032 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the increase in demand leads to a supply - demand mismatch, which supports the futures price. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles has led to downstream inventory - building demand, and the increase in capacity electricity price and the expansion of the spot price difference have made the economy of independent energy storage more prominent, with strong installation demand. Meanwhile, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,600, a decrease of 150; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,350, a decrease of 150. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 [1][2]. - Futures contracts: Lithium carbonate 2510 has a closing price of 72,680 with a decline of 0.57%; lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 72,880 with a decline of 0.95%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 72,940 with a decline of 0.98%; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 72,820 with a decline of 1.09%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 72,600 with a decline of 1.04% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 857, an increase of 44. Lithium mica with Li20: 1.5% - 2.0% has a price of 1140; with Li20: 2.0% - 2.5% has a price of 1875; phosphate - lithium - aluminum ore with Li20: 6% - 7% has a price of 6150; with Li20: 7% - 8% has a price of 7285 [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,650, a decrease of 40; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 148,800, an increase of 750; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,350, an increase of 600; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 126,200, an increase of 600 [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 720, with a change of 1010; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 200, with a change of 100; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 260, with a change of 60 [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,825, a decrease of 706; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,492, a decrease of 964; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 60,893, an increase of 1398; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,440, a decrease of 1140; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 40,329, an increase of 20 [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,418, and the profit is - 2,888; the cash cost of purchased lithium mica concentrate and the profit are not clearly presented, but the profit is - 8,189 [3]. Company News - Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25th, and most employees are on holiday. It may resume production in November due to the suspension of raw material supply from CATL [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant rise in independent energy storage in China, with improved economic viability and a clear increase in demand, alongside sustained high demand for large-scale storage in Europe and emerging markets [1] - The transition from mandatory energy storage to independent energy storage in China is expected to enhance the revenue model for storage projects, with local governments introducing capacity price compensation policies [1] - The report anticipates that the domestic energy storage demand forecast will be revised upwards, with a projected installation of 149 GWh in 2025 and 194 GWh in 2026, driven by strong demand in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [2] Group 2 - The supply of energy storage cells is expected to remain tight until the second half of 2026, with a global demand forecast of 521 GWh in 2025 and 710 GWh in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60% and 36% respectively [2] - The report highlights that the independent energy storage model is replacing the traditional capacity storage model, leading to higher quality requirements for storage batteries and systems, which is likely to concentrate the competitive landscape [2] - The emergence of integrated system providers and the rise of construction and operation models are expected to benefit companies with technological and resource advantages in the energy storage sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - In the short term, factors such as the approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, downstream stocking demand, and the appearance of independent energy storage economy support the futures price. However, in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Content Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,750 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,500 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 856 yuan, with no change; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,140 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1,875 yuan; petalite (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 6,150 yuan; petalite (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 7,285 yuan [1][2] Positive Electrode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,690 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 148,050 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,750 yuan, an increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 125,600 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 290 yuan, a decrease of 1,260 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 300 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly) is 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly) is 33,492 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly) is 60,893 tons, an increase of 1,398 tons; the inventory of others (weekly) is 42,440 tons, a decrease of 1,140 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily) is 40,309 tons, an increase of 560 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 75,328 yuan, with a profit of - 2,650 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 78,729 yuan, with a profit of - 8,042 yuan [3] Industry News - On September 24, China announced new contributions at the United Nations Climate Change Summit, including increasing the proportion of non - fossil energy consumption to over 30% of the total energy consumption, and the total power generation capacity of electricity to reach more than 6 times that of 2020, aiming for 3.6 billion kilowatts [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the independent energy storage sector, highlighting the economic viability and significant demand growth in the market [2][3]. Core Insights - The transition from mandatory energy storage to independent energy storage is underway, with local governments implementing capacity price compensation policies to establish a market-oriented revenue mechanism [2][3]. - The domestic energy storage demand forecast has been revised upward, with expectations of continued strong growth, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [2][3]. - The supply of energy storage cells is expected to remain tight until the second half of 2026, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative business models and integrated system solutions, which are expected to enhance profitability for companies with technological and resource advantages [2][3]. Summary by Sections PART 1: Capacity Price Policies and Independent Storage Models - The shift from mandatory energy storage to independent storage is supported by new policies that provide stable cash flow through capacity price compensation [2][3]. - The report outlines the differences in revenue structures and economic viability between mandatory and independent storage models, with independent storage showing superior profitability potential [11][36]. PART 2: Revised Domestic Energy Storage Demand Forecast - The report projects that domestic energy storage installations will reach 149 GWh in 2025 and 194 GWh in 2026, with a long-term forecast of 340 GWh by 2030 [2][3]. - The demand for energy storage is significantly driven by the development of data centers, which are expected to account for one-third of total energy storage demand by 2030 [2][3]. PART 3: Supply Constraints and High-Quality Development - The report anticipates a continued shortage of energy storage cells until the second half of 2026, with global demand expected to reach 521 GWh in 2025 and 710 GWh in 2026 [2][3]. - The focus on high-quality development in the energy storage industry is expected to benefit leading companies, as well as improve the performance of second-tier players [2][3]. PART 4: Valuation Comparison and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as CATL, Sungrow, and others, while also highlighting the potential of emerging players in the market [2][3]. - The overall sentiment is bullish on the large-scale energy storage sector, driven by strong demand in Europe and emerging markets, as well as favorable policies in the U.S. [2][3].

Core Insights - The recent auction results for renewable energy prices in Shandong Province have raised concerns among investors regarding the profitability of solar and wind projects, with solar prices dropping to 0.225 yuan/kWh and wind prices at 0.319 yuan/kWh, both significantly lower than expected [1][3][4] - The mechanism price is part of a new pricing system aimed at stabilizing revenue for renewable energy projects, but the low auction results indicate a potential shift in investment dynamics within the sector [1][2][3] Group 1: Auction Results and Market Reactions - The auction results revealed a mechanism price of 0.225 yuan/kWh for solar projects, with an 80% mechanism volume ratio, and 0.319 yuan/kWh for wind projects, with a 70% mechanism volume ratio, indicating a significant drop in expected returns [3][4] - Industry reactions to the low prices have been mixed, with some anticipating the price drop due to high competition among bidders, while others express disappointment as they had hoped for prices that would allow for profitability [3][4] - The mechanism price represents a 43% decrease for solar and a 19.2% decrease for wind compared to the benchmark coal price of 0.3949 yuan/kWh, highlighting the impact on new projects' profitability [4] Group 2: Policy Changes and Investment Dynamics - Recent policy changes from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim to accelerate the construction of the electricity spot market and promote new energy consumption, indicating a shift in investment models for renewable energy [2][5] - The low mechanism prices signal that the market may not require as many solar investors in the short term, suggesting a strategic shift towards wind energy projects [5] - The competitive landscape is changing, with many investors submitting low bids to secure project approvals, reflecting a challenging environment for maintaining profitability in solar energy investments [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - The current low mechanism prices may not become the norm, as the tight timeline for project approvals and the potential for even lower market prices could lead to greater losses for investors [5][6] - Industry experts suggest that to improve the situation, policies may need to allow for more flexible timelines and encourage companies to withdraw from unprofitable projects, which could fundamentally alter supply and demand dynamics [5][6] - The focus for future market development is expected to shift towards high-quality projects, with cost control becoming increasingly important for profitability in regions with less competitive solar markets [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a significant increase in the scale of energy storage and EPC procurement, reaching 79.88 GW and 271.79 GWh from January to August, representing a year-on-year growth of 191% in GWh terms [1][2]. Domestic Demand - Policy support is expected to sustain the demand for independent energy storage, with a notable increase in project scale and duration. The average project size has grown to 2 GWh, and the storage duration has increased from 1-2 hours to 3-4 hours [2]. - In August alone, the energy storage and EPC scale reached 25.8 GW and 69.4 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 520% and a month-on-month increase of 169% [2]. Industry Chain Impact - The reliability requirements for energy storage are increasing, and the diversification of revenue streams may lead to a rise in energy storage system prices, benefiting related integrators. The price of 4-hour energy storage systems in August was 0.431 yuan/Wh, up 3% month-on-month [3]. - The anticipated increase in system prices in Q4 2023 may allow manufacturers with sufficient battery inventory to benefit from inventory premiums, leading to profit growth [3]. Recommended Stocks - CICC recommends several stocks in the energy storage sector, including: - Upwind Electric (300827.SZ) - Haibo Sichuang (688411.SH) - YN Technology (688348.SH) - Deyang Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the settlement trial operation for the Chongqing power frequency regulation auxiliary service market marks a new phase in the construction of the Chongqing power market [1] Group 1: Market Development - The Chongqing power frequency regulation auxiliary service market began its trial operation on September 1, indicating significant progress in market construction [1] - The market has undergone a four-month trial operation following the issuance of operational rules by the Central China Energy Regulatory Bureau in March 2025, allowing various market participants to compete in frequency regulation [1] - A comprehensive technical evaluation was conducted in June 2025, confirming the stability of the technical support system and the scientific nature of the market mechanism [1] Group 2: Market Characteristics - The Chongqing power grid is characterized by a smaller scale, a high proportion of external electricity, and significant seasonal variations in hydropower, leading to a scarcity of system frequency regulation resources [1] - The market is the first in the Central China region to enable independent energy storage to participate in frequency regulation services regularly, enhancing the frequency regulation capability of the Chongqing grid [1] Group 3: Future Directions - The Central China Energy Regulatory Bureau plans to continue enhancing the auxiliary service market, using market-oriented methods to stimulate the development of new business models and support the construction of a unified national power market [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **domestic energy storage market** in China, focusing on recent developments, profitability models, and investment strategies of state-owned enterprises [1][2][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Profitability Models**: The domestic energy storage market is shifting its profitability models, relying on spot markets, price differentials, frequency modulation revenue, and capacity compensation. A price differential of 0.4 CNY/kWh can yield a 7%-8% return [1][3][4]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are increasingly focusing on independent energy storage as a key investment area, adjusting their strategies to enhance profitability through innovative revenue models and project cost increases [1][6][10]. 3. **Market Growth**: The domestic energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with projections of over 50% growth in 2025 and 30% in 2026. The installed capacity is anticipated to reach at least 150 GWh by 2025 [2][12][13]. 4. **Policy Impact**: The release of document 136 has positively influenced the market, leading to a surge in demand and a tightening supply chain, which has resulted in increased battery prices, particularly for lower-end products [2][3][14]. 5. **Geographical Importance**: The geographical location of energy storage projects is crucial for profitability, with areas connected to stable coal power plants experiencing less frequency modulation demand [7]. Additional Important Content 1. **Emerging Business Models**: Energy storage equipment manufacturers are enhancing profitability through new business models, including operational and management services, guaranteed returns, and equity dividends [8]. 2. **Price Trends**: The price of independent energy storage is on the rise due to increased quality and performance requirements, with some projects in Inner Mongolia reaching prices of 0.8 CNY per watt-hour [9]. 3. **Future Demand**: The demand for energy storage is expected to remain strong, driven by new energy projects and policy support, with estimates suggesting a capacity of 190-200 GWh by 2026 [35]. 4. **Competitive Landscape**: Companies like Envision Energy and BYD are highlighted as having competitive advantages in the energy storage system market due to their comprehensive service capabilities [23][24]. 5. **Global Market Trends**: The global energy storage market is projected to grow at a rate of 30% annually, with China playing a pivotal role in driving this growth [48]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future prospects of the domestic energy storage market in China.