1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall outlook for sugar prices remains bearish, with the downward potential of domestic sugar prices depending on the external market. If Brazil's sugar production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may decline further, potentially leading to new lows for domestic sugar prices. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, making the trend of domestic sugar prices more uncertain [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - External market: In August, the raw sugar price fluctuated. As of August 29, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.34 cents per pound, down 0.01 cents per pound from the previous month, a decrease of 0.06%. The October - March spread of raw sugar remained volatile, at -0.64 cents per pound, down 0.01 cents per pound from the previous month. The October - March spread of London white sugar strengthened significantly, at $21.5 per ton, up $19.1 per ton from the previous month. The raw - white sugar spread strengthened to $132 per ton, up $25 per ton from the previous month [9]. - Domestic market: In August, the Zhengzhou sugar price declined. As of August 29, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,604 yuan per ton, down 51 yuan per ton from the previous month, a decrease of 0.9%. The spot price in Guangxi was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 80 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis strengthened to 326 yuan per ton, up 109 yuan per ton from the previous month. The January - May spread fluctuated at 37 yuan per ton, down 7 yuan per ton from the previous month. The profit from out - of - quota spot sugar imports fluctuated at 477 yuan per ton, down 75 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry News** - According to the latest UNICA data, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons or 8.17% compared to the same period last year. The sugar - making ratio was 55%, an increase of 5.85 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 3.61 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons or 15.96% compared to the same period last year. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi was 89.04%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year - on - year. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 260,200 tons, a decrease of 96,900 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 708,700 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons year - on - year. In Yunnan, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 86.09%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points year - on - year. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 130,900 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 336,400 tons, an increase of 70,700 tons year - on - year [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy** - Domestically, due to the increase in import supply, the poor sales and production data in the main producing areas in August, and the expected increase in production in Guangxi in the new crushing season. Internationally, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased significantly year - on - year in the first half of August. Both the domestic and international markets are bearish, and the overall view on sugar prices remains bearish. The downward potential depends on the external market. If Brazil's production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may decline further, and domestic sugar prices may reach new lows. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, and the trend of domestic sugar prices will be more complex [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - The data on August 29, 2025, showed that the basis was 326 yuan per ton, the January - May spread of Zhengzhou sugar was 37 yuan per ton, the production - sales area spread was -140 yuan per ton, the raw - white sugar spread was $132 per ton, the sugar - alcohol spread was 2.03 cents per pound, the in - quota cost for the October contract was 4,522 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost for the October contract was 5,643 yuan per ton. The multi - empty scores for basis, spread, production - sales area spread, raw - white sugar spread, sugar - alcohol spread, and cost were -0.5, -0.5, 0, +0.5, 0, and -0.5 respectively. The summary is that the probability of the continued decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices is relatively high [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - The recommended strategy is to short at high prices in a single - side trade, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of within 3 months, a core driving logic of high import supply pressure and expected production increase in the new crushing season, a recommended level of 3, and the first proposed time of August 16, 2025 [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including those for spot prices and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums, and sugar - alcohol ratios, which show the historical trends of various spreads over different time periods [17][20][25] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - The report provides charts on national sugar production, import volume (including sugar, syrup, and pre - mixed powder), sales volume, and industrial inventory, showing the historical data of these indicators over different time periods [41][44][49][52] 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions** - Charts show the historical trends of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [57] - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane, and cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil [60] - **Indian Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India [65] - **Thai Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand [68] - **Brazilian Shipment Volume** - Charts show the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar awaiting shipment at Brazilian ports [71]

【国内市场】 现货报价：南宁中间商站台报价6000元/吨。昆明中间商报价5770-5940元/吨。 7月我国进口食糖74.43万吨，环比增长75.29%，同比增长76.44%，其中64.44万吨来自于巴西。7月我国进口糖浆和预混粉15.97万吨，同比下降6.86万吨，但环比 继续增加，创年内新高。 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Import volume has increased significantly and is at its peak. Northern sugar mills will start production later, and the new - season sugar production is expected to be at a near - four - year high. These factors will suppress the sugar price to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,609 yuan/ton, with a change of 5; the main contract position is 358,781 lots, with an increase of 1,010. The number of warehouse receipts is 13,434, a decrease of 482. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,562 lots, a decrease of 401. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 7, an increase of 6 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,552 yuan/ton, an increase of 13; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, an increase of 17. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,786 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,825 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 5,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50; in Liuzhou, it is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 359.37 million tons, an increase of 23.47 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.27%, unchanged; that of at - the - money put options is also 8.27%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.9%, an increase of 0.27; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.41%, an increase of 0.26 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association reported that in the first half of August, sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. Last Friday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.97%. On Monday, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.16%. Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August. Meanwhile, demand shows signs of improvement, and raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate at a low level [2] 3.8 View Summary - Internally, the profit window outside the quota remains open, import pressure is released, and the sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start production in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, the upcoming double - festival stocking will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the amount of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the current de - stocking process. The new - season sugar production is expected to remain at a high level in the past four years [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. Asian major sugar - producing countries have a good production outlook with a loose global supply expectation, but there are concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season and signs of improved demand. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, with a significant increase in sugar imports in July, which is the highest in the same period in the past decade, and the peak period will last until August and September. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing the supply. The demand is expected to increase due to the upcoming Double - Festival stocking. The inventory pressure of domestic sugar is not large currently, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic sugar price is supported by the Double - Festival stocking expectation and low inventory pressure, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets. However, factors such as increased imports, upcoming northern sugar mill openings, and high new - season production expectations will limit the upward space of the price. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5688 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 15 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 367,664 hands, with a change of 5,745 hands. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,385, with a decrease of 170. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,517 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1, with no change. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton; the estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota is also 4,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,755 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 5,970 yuan/ton, with no change; in Liuzhou, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons. The total sugar export volume from Brazil is 359.37 million tons, an increase of 23.47 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is also 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price outside the quota (50% tariff) is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.16%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is also 8.16%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.54%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.13%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous year's 40.2 million tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low due to the obvious increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil after July and the expected increase in production in major northern hemisphere producers like India in the new season [8]. - The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline as the domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, the out - of - quota spot import profit has remained at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price valuation is still high [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The international raw sugar price rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.47 cents per pound, up 0.2 cents per pound from the previous week, a 1.23% increase. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,664 yuan per ton, up 91 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.63% increase. Various spreads also showed different trends [9]. - **Industry News**: In the second half of July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 76 from 80 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased by 259,800 tons, a 7.26% decline [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to short at high levels with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 within three months [8][9]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - The report shows charts of national sugar production, import volume, sales volume, and industrial inventory, covering monthly and cumulative data for multiple seasons, to reflect the supply and demand situation in the domestic sugar market [41][44][49][52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - The report provides charts of CFTC positions, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil, India, and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar shipment volume, to show the international sugar market situation [57][60][65][68][71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the second half of the year, the price difference between imported sugar processing and Guangxi sugar has narrowed, and the import supply is gradually increasing. The spot import profit outside the quota has remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a relatively high valuation. Coupled with the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next crushing season, assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline in the future is relatively high [9] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: This week, the raw sugar price fluctuated weakly. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was reported at 16.20 cents per pound, down 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week, a decrease of 0.49%. In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil increased by 15.07% year - on - year to 3.406 million tons, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.33 million tons. The estimated net sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.9 million tons to 30 million tons, slightly lower than the market expectation of 31 - 34 million tons. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports is 79, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded is 3.5531 million tons. It is estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season will be 40.16 million tons, a slight decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous season [9] - **Domestic Market Review**: This week, the Zhengzhou sugar price decreased with a reduction in positions. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was reported at 5,733 yuan per ton, down 143 yuan per ton from the previous week, an increase of 2.43%. As of June, the newly added sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Industry Group was 320,000 mu, with a total planting area of 2.15 million mu [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 257 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread was 113 yuan per ton, the production - sales area spread was - 110 yuan per ton, the raw - refined sugar spread was 107 US dollars per ton, the sugar - alcohol spread was 2.67 cents per pound, the in - quota cost of the October contract was 4,526 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,647 yuan per ton. The overall valuation of the market is relatively high [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: No trading strategy was recommended [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report presents the price trend of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, and the basis between the Nanning spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [17][18] - **Spot - to - Spot Spreads**: It shows the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spreads, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spreads, and Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spreads [20][21][24] - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: It includes the out - of - quota spot import profit, out - of - quota futures import profit, raw sugar 10 - 3 spreads, and raw sugar 3 - 5 spreads [25][26][28] - **London White Sugar Monthly Spreads**: It shows the London white sugar 8 - 10 spreads and 10 - 3 spreads [29][30] - **Raw - Refined Sugar Spreads**: It presents the 10 - 10 and 3 - 3 raw - refined sugar spreads [31][32] - **Raw Sugar Spot Premiums and Discounts**: It shows the Brazilian and Thai raw sugar premiums and discounts [33][34] - **Sugar - Alcohol Ratio Fluctuations**: It shows the production advantage of raw sugar over Brazilian hydrous ethanol and the Brazilian oil - alcohol ratio [36][37] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: It presents the national monthly and cumulative sugar production [41][42] - **Sugar Imports**: It shows the national monthly and cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and cumulative imports of syrups and premixes [44][45][47] - **National Sales**: It presents the national monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress [49][50] - **National Industrial Inventory**: It shows the national monthly industrial inventory and Guangxi's three - party warehouse inventory [52][53] 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: It shows the CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [57][58] - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: It presents the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil [60][61][64] - **India's Production**: It shows India's bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production [65][66] - **Thailand's Production**: It shows Thailand's bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production [68][69] - **Brazil's Shipment Volume**: It shows the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports [71][72]

Market Review - On Tuesday evening, white sugar futures for the 2509 contract rose by 0.17% to close at 5868 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Indian Food Ministry announced a sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons for domestic consumption starting from August 1, 2025, which is an increase of 50,000 tons year-on-year and month-on-month [2] - In the fourth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 3.1757 million tons of white sugar, compared to 3.7823 million tons in July of the previous year. The average daily shipment was 167,100 tons, reflecting a 1.64% increase from 164,400 tons per day in July of last year [2] - S&P Commodity Insights analyst Bianca Guimaraes stated that the dry weather in July is expected to accelerate harvesting, boosting sugar production in the first half of the month, a trend anticipated to continue into the latter half [2] Institutional Perspectives - Southwest Futures noted that while Brazil's production is below expectations, both Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper crop. Domestic inventory is low, and import volumes remain high, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach. The strategy indicates a range-bound operation [3] - Green Dahan Futures highlighted that the recent rebound in Zheng sugar prices was primarily driven by basis recovery logic, supported by a high domestic sugar sales rate. However, the main constraint on sugar prices remains the pressure from large volumes of imported sugar arriving at ports. Recent attention should be paid to macroeconomic sentiment and the growth progress of Brazilian sugarcane, as well as changes in processing sugar prices in the spot market. The trading strategy suggests monitoring activity ranges of 5830-5900 for SR509 and 5680-5770 for SR601, with previous long positions held for observation or partial exit [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The SR509 contract of sugar is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, and there is support at the price of 5600. In the long - term, the global sugar supply - demand pattern will remain loose, and the SR2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range. Follow - up data such as UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales and inventory data, and customs import data should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Supply - **Brazil Production**: - The 2024/25 Brazilian sugar production was 4017 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to the previous season, with a decline of 5.3%. As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25%. The precipitation in the first half of June was relatively high, affecting the crushing progress. The sugar - to - cane ratio continued to rise, offsetting the impact of the decline in crushing volume and sugar content. The recent precipitation will affect the raw sugar price. The 2025/26 production is expected to increase, with an estimated output of about 4200 tons [44][45][46]. - As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative cane input in the central - southern region was 20619.8 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.00%. The cumulative sugar - to - cane ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25% [53]. - As of July 11, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.38%, and ethanol had an advantage in sales. The ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.78 cents per pound, and the ICE raw sugar settlement price was 16.56 cents per pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 1.78 cents per pound over the ethanol - converted sugar price, which continued to decline compared to the previous week [68]. - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of July were 136.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.88 tons, a decline of 21.66%. As of the week of July 9, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 368.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.96 tons, an increase of 1.96% [87]. - As of June 30, Brazil's sugar inventory was 401.6657 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years, but the subsequent inventory accumulation pattern was obvious [84]. - **India and Thailand Production**: - India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is estimated to be about 2610 - 2620 tons. The end - of - year inventory is expected to be 520 - 530 tons, ensuring a balance between supply and demand. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, with an estimated output of about 3500 tons [86]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1004.18 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous year. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to continue to increase slightly, with MitrPhol Group estimating 1150 tons and USDA estimating 1026 tons [93]. - **Global Production**: - The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season was still in a loose pattern but tightened marginally compared to the previous period. In the 2025/26 season, the supply is expected to turn loose. Some institutions predict a supply surplus, such as Czarnikow predicting a 750 - ton surplus, Datagro predicting a 153 - ton surplus, and Green Pool predicting a 115 - ton surplus [96][97]. Domestic Supply - **Production**: - The 2024/25 domestic sugar - making season ended on May 23. The total sugar production in the season was 1116.21 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.89 tons, an increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152.1 tons, an increase of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [108][113]. - In Guangxi, the 2024/25 sugar production was 646.50 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 tons. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 tons, and the sales rate was 79.51%, 6.29 percentage points higher than the same period last year [113]. - **Import**: - The in - quota import volume is 194.5 tons per year, with a 15% tariff, and the out - of - quota import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, the imported sugar was 42 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39 tons. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 106 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25 tons. From the beginning of the 2024/25 season to the end of June, the cumulative imported sugar was 251 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65 tons. The out - of - quota import profit window opened earlier, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter [128]. - Since 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder has been restricted. In May 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder (tax number 1702.90, 2106.906) was 6.43 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 tons. The import of goods under 170290 remained at a low level, while the import of goods under 2106906 increased significantly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [143]. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: - The peak demand seasons for sugar are the summer cold - drink and ice - cream consumption season and the Spring Festival stocking season. After the Spring Festival, the consumption is in the off - season, but the sugar sales data from February to April were higher than in previous years, mainly due to the transfer of some sugar factory inventories to third - party inventories. As of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a 23.07% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 72.68%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a 6.29 - percentage - point increase in the sales rate compared to the same period last year [150]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 2025, the national industrial inventory was 304.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.21 tons. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the industrial inventory was 132.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 tons [153].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - International factors such as the improved prospects and expected restorative production increase in major Asian sugar - producing countries due to the monsoon season, along with the increased supply of Brazilian sugar, are suppressing the raw sugar price. In the domestic market, in May 2025, China's sugar imports reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. With the import window open, import pressure is rising, which is putting downward pressure on sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support to prices. The sugar price is showing an adjustment trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,721 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the main contract position was 353,799 lots, down 15,173 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,539 lots, down 5,111 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,393 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,415 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,578 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,606 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning was 6,050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Liuzhou was 6,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area was 1,480 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 5.49 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.3509 million tons, down 128,600 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons. The national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,536 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,514 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 351 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 323 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, with no change; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On June 23, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,925 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 707 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff). The sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,889 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 655 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short term, the market is influenced by production data, while in the long term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase are key factors. Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,721 with a 0.02% increase, SR2507 at 5,750 with a 0.17% decrease, and SR2509 at 5,619 with a 0.16% decrease. Trading volumes for SR2511, SR2507, and SR2509 decreased by 32.70%, 7.34%, and 12.38% respectively, and open interests decreased by 4.11%, 5.30%, and increased by 1.70% respectively [3]. - **Spot Market**: Sugar prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, and other regions ranged from 5,865 to 6,420 yuan/ton. The basis for Liuzhou was 379 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread was 131 with a decrease of 1, SR09 - SR11 was 102, and SR07 - SR09 was 29 with a decrease of 11 [3]. - **Import Profit**: The in - quota and out - of - quota import prices from Brazil were 4,398 and 5,621 yuan/ton respectively, with a spread of 479 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou. For Thailand, the corresponding prices were 4,434 and 5,668 yuan/ton, with a spread of 432 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou [3]. Market Judgment - **International**: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales rates may support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected global supply increases, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short term due to delayed summer stocking demand, weak raw sugar, and increased out - of - quota import profits [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Expected to remain weak in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10].