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蛋白数据日报-20250710
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 06:48
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations from June to August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 levels. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [6] Price and Spread - On July 9th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) and the spot basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions (such as Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, etc.) showed different values and changes. The spot spread and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong also have corresponding data [4][5] Other Data - There are data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the futures crushing profit, the import soybean futures gross profit, the CNF premium of soybeans, the inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]
蛋白数据日报-20250709
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 05:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider low - level long positions for M01 [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The expected arrivals in June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 is at a high level. However, in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The document provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts in different regions on July 8, including the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian, Tianjin, etc., and the basis of 43% soybean meal spot and rapeseed meal spot. It also shows the spread data such as M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, and RM9 - 1, as well as the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [4][5]. Other Data - The document also includes data on the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, soybean CNF premium, soybean inventory in Chinese ports and major oil mills across the country, soybean meal inventory in major oil mills and feed enterprises, soybean crushing volume and operating rate of major oil mills [5].
蛋白数据日报-20250702
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - USDA planting area report and quarterly inventory report adjustments are limited, with an overall neutral impact [8] - The US soybean supply and demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation, and the CBOT US soybean futures and domestic soybean meal futures are more sensitive to the weather in US production areas [8] - Under the current China - US tariff policy, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, supporting the expected gradual increase of the soybean meal futures price center. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the far - month M01 contract [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on July 1st, the basis in Dalian is - 11, in Rizhao is - 81, in Tianjin is - 41, in Zhangjiagang is - 121, in Dongguan is - 111, in Zhanjiang is - 111, and in Fangcheng is - 111 [6] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is - 96, with a decline of - 54 [6] - The M9 - M1 spread and M9 - RM9 spread are presented, and the RM9 - 1 spread has values such as 280, 1200, etc. in different periods [6][7] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 375, with a decline of - 14, and the main - contract price difference is 360 [7] 3.2 Exchange Rate, Profit, and Premium Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.1122, and the E - type soybean import premium is 111.00 cents per bushel [7] - The import soybean futures gross profit is 232 yuan per ton, with no change [7] 3.3 Inventory Data - Information on China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 - 2025 is presented [7] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In June, July, and August in China, the expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is over 10 million tons per month. The new - crop US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight, with the US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropping to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas will be favorable for growth in the next two weeks [7] - Demand: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before November, poultry inventory remains high, soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, feed addition ratio increases, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein [7][8] - Inventory: As of last Friday, domestic soybeans and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a historical high for the same period, while soybean meal inventory is at a historical low, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days continue to rise [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250625
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. The good rate of US soybeans remains at 66%, and the weather in the production areas will be favorable for soybean growth in the next two weeks. As the downstream inventory gradually rises, the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation rate is expected to accelerate. The spot basis is still under pressure. The short - term 109 trend is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the results of the planting area report at the end of the month [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On June 24, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 13, down 10; in Tianjin, it was - 87. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Rizhao was - 137, down 20; in Zhangjiagang, it was - 117, down 20; in Dongguan, it was - 157, down 40; in Zhanjiang, it was - 97, down 20; in Fangcheng, it was - 137, down 40. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 62, down 5. The M9 - M1 spread and other data are also presented in the table [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 375, down 5; the price difference on the main contract was 280, down 40. The RM9 - 1 spread was 288, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was also presented in the form of a graph [7] Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. As of now, the purchase progress for July is 100%, 66.8% for August, and 25.3% for September. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean production areas will be favorable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [7] Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 volumes. In some areas, wheat has replaced corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal and far - month basis has increased [7][8] Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises continues to rise [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250619
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 07:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the adjustment of the planting area of US soybeans and US corn in the planting area report at the end of the month. The tense situation in the Middle East, the rise of international crude oil, and the strong rise of soybean oil suppress the performance of the soybean meal futures market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - From June to August in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The purchase progress of ships is 100% in June, 95.9% in July, and 55.2% in August, but it is slow after September. The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 68%, and the weather in the production areas is suitable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [7][8]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal has significantly improved, and the downstream transactions have increased and the pick - up has improved [8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly and is still at a low level. The inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected, but it is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation in late June. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased slightly and is still at a low level [8]. Price and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the basis of spot prices, as well as the spread between different contracts [6][7]. Other Data - The report also includes data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the CNF premium of soybeans, the profit of soybean crushing on the futures market, the inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the soybean crushing volume and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [7].
国贸期货蛋白数据日报-20250611
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 10:40
Report Overview - The report is a data daily report on agricultural products by ITG Guomao Futures, written by Huang Xianglan from the Agricultural Products Research Center on June 11, 2025 [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean inventory continues to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The soybean meal inventory is also increasing but remains at a low level. With the significant recovery of the oil mills' operation rate, it is expected that the soybean meal inventory will accumulate more rapidly in mid - to late June [6] - The soybean meal is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. As domestic ship - buying progresses, the M09 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US economic and trade talks [6] Data Summary Basis Data - On June 10, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was - 51, down 12; in Rizhao it was - 171, down 32; in Tianjin it was - 91, down 12; in Zhangjiagang it was - 151, down 32; in Dongguan it was - 181, down 22; in Zhanjiang it was - 141, down 22; and in Fangcheng it was - 151, down 32. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 199, down 15 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 420, down 10; the futures spread of the main contract was 402, down 3 [5] International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1367, up 2. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 177 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean inventory at ports and in major oil mills, as well as the soybean meal inventory and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, showed different trends over different time periods. The operation rate and soybean crushing volume of major oil mills also had their own trends [5] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in May, June, and July is over 10 million tons each month. The short - term planting weather of US soybeans shows no obvious abnormalities. However, in the US production area, Nebraska has had less precipitation recently, but there is no high - temperature combination, which needs further observation [5][6] Demand - Based on the inventory situation, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream pick - up has improved [6]
蛋白数据日报-20250609
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, the expectation of improved Sino-US relations drives the rebound of US soybeans, and the Brazilian premium rebounds, leading to an increase in import costs. However, there are no obvious abnormalities in the US soybean planting weather, and domestic ship purchases are progressing. The market lacks strong upward momentum for now, and the price is expected to move sideways [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis Data - On June 6th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Dalian and Rizhao, it was -50 to -170 with a change of -12; in Tianjin, it was -90 with an increase of 8; in Zhangjiagang, it was -110 with a decrease of -52; in Dongguan, it was -190 with a decrease of -32; in Zhanjiang, it was -130 with a decrease of -22; and in Fangcheng, it was -140 with a decrease of -42. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was -178 with a decrease of -41 [4]. Spread Data - The M9 - 1 spread was -38, the N9 - RM9 spread was 7, the RM9 - 1 spread was 261, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 402 with a change of 11, and the盘面 spread (主力) was 390 with a change of 20 [5]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1847, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 132.00 (in cents per bushel), and the import soybean盘面 gross profit was 175 yuan per ton with an increase of 10 [5]. Inventory Data - As of last week, domestic soybean inventories continued to accumulate and were at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory but was still at a low level. With the significant rebound in crushing operations, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate more rapidly in June [6]. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: From May to July, the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. As of now, the purchase progress for June is 94.4%, July is 80.6%, and August is 33.8%. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early soybean growth [5][6]. - Demand: Based on inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, poultry inventory remains high, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream transactions have increased with better提货 [6].
蛋白数据日报-20250508
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Forecasts suggest the US soybean - producing regions will be dry in the next two weeks, which is expected to facilitate sowing. Brazilian soybean premiums are weak, with far - month contracts relatively firm. In China, a large amount of soybeans are expected to arrive in the second quarter. Domestic oil mills are expected to gradually resume crushing after the May Day holiday, leading to a stock - building cycle for soybean meal. As the pressure on spot supply increases, the basis is expected to continue to adjust. The futures market is expected to remain range - bound and weak in the short term, awaiting further release of spot pressure [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on May 7th: in Dalian it was 530 with a 65 increase; in Tianjin 380 with a 115 increase; in日照 it was 200 with a 35 decrease; in张家港 280 with a 5 decrease; in Dongguan 380 with a 65 increase; in Zhanjiang 380 with a 5 decrease; in Fangcheng 360 with a 25 increase. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 114 with a 17 decrease [4] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 849 with a 70 increase, and the futures spread of the main contract was 355 with a 12 decrease. The N9 - 1 spread was - 41 with an 8 increase, and the RM9 - 1 spread was 1200 with a 220 increase [5] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1761 with a 10 decrease. The soybean CNF premium was 213.00 cents per bushel. The futures crushing profit was 137 yuan per ton. Regarding inventory, data on national major oil mills' soybean inventory, Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were presented, along with trends in national major oil mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes [5]
蛋白数据日报-20250418
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 06:40
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The supply of spot goods is tight, and the customs clearance time in some regions has been extended to over 20 days. There are expectations of a huge arrival of Brazilian soybeans in May and June in China. The planting area of new - crop US soybeans is expected to decrease. The USDA April supply - demand report has a neutral impact. On the demand side, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before August, the inventory of meat and egg poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year. The downstream transaction and pick - up of goods have improved. Domestic soybean inventories are increasing but currently low, and soybean meal inventories have dropped significantly to a low level. Based on import cost support, it is recommended to consider buying on dips for far - month contracts [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian on April 17 was 650, down 161; in Tianjin, it was 670, down 121; in Rizhao, it was 400, down 221. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 350, down 111; in Dongguan, it was 270, down 41; in Zhanjiang, it was 310, down 21; in Fangcheng, it was 320, down 41. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 46, down 12 [6] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 580, down 10; the spread on the main contract was 640, up 26 [7] International Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.2502, down 2. The soybean CNF premium was 215.00 cents per bushel [7] Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventories are increasing but currently low, and soybean meal inventories have dropped significantly to a low level. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7][8] Supply - Demand Situation - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, and customs clearance time in some regions has been extended. There are expectations of a huge arrival of Brazilian soybeans in May and June in China. As of April 1, the purchase progress for May was 85.2%, June was 53.9%, July was 21.9%, and August was 4.9%. The USDA planting intention report in March lowered the planting area of new - crop US soybeans to 83.495 million acres, and it is expected to further decrease under the trade war. The USDA April supply - demand report has a neutral impact. Demand side: From the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before August; the inventory of meat poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and the inventory of egg poultry is expected to remain high before April. As the spot price drops, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal increases. In some regions, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The downstream transaction and pick - up of goods have improved [7][8]