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山东市场豆粕供需情况调研
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 01:16
刻踪 | 信号承诺 山东市场豆粕供需情况调研 调研报告 企业1 肉鸡产业链利润分析:鸡苗价格下跌较快。 6月底大型企业鸡苗价格已跌至2元r羽以下(5月底约为3元/羽左右)。 孵化环节仍有微利. 屠宰环节出现小幅亏损。目前肉鸡食品深加工环节利润最高,但销量不佳。冻品销售不佳,库存压力大。山东地区冻品库存高企,外租仓 库已满(正常周转周期为7–20天)。饲料成本方面,玉米价格上涨,豆粕价格下跌。817肉鸡养殖利润不佳。 油厂动态与开机率展望:个别油厂出现账库现象,并开始催促客户提货。预计山东地区油厂开机率到7月中旬或7月底将处于较高水平。 豆粕用量驱动因素与展望:目前豆粕日度用量环比增加,主要源于配方调整而非饲料销量增长。预计7月豆粕日用量与6月相比保持平 稳。8月和9月若配方维持不变,用量预计将继续环比增加,增量主要来自饲料销量的增长。 豆粕添加比例现状、维持条件与替代影响: 目前豆粕添加比例为: 鸭料68、肉鸡料30%。猪料8-10%(该比例于5月中下旬上调)。短期 内若无杂箱替代,预计该高添加比例将维持至9-10月份。若使用小麦替代玉米,对豆粕需求量的影响有限,预计仅减少约18的用量。目 前企业基本避免使用 ...
调研报告 | 山东市场豆粕供需情况调研
对冲研投· 2025-06-30 10:51
以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ,作者吴小明 国投期货研究院 . 国投期货研究院团队倾力打造,专注热门期货品种分析。 文 | 吴小明 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 企业1 肉鸡产业链利润分析:鸡苗价格下跌较快。6月底大型企业鸡苗价格已跌至2元/羽以下(5月底约为3元/羽左右)。孵化环节仍有微 利。屠宰环节出现小幅亏损。目前肉鸡食品深加工环节利润最高,但销量不佳。冻品销售不佳,库存压力大。山东地区冻品库存高 企,外租仓库已满(正常周转周期为7-20天)。饲料成本方面,玉米价格上涨,豆粕价格下跌。817肉鸡养殖利润不佳。 油厂动态与开机率展望:个别油厂出现胀库现象,并开始催促客户提货。预计山东地区油厂开机率到7月中旬或7月底将处于较高水 平。 豆粕用量驱动因素与展望:目前豆粕日度用量环比增加,主要源于配方调整而非饲料销量增长。预计7月豆粕日用量与6月相比保持 平稳。8月和9月若配方维持不变,用量预计将继续环比增加,增量主要来自饲料销量的增长。 豆粕添加比例现状、维持条件与替代影响:目前豆粕添加比例为:鸭料6%、肉鸡料30%、猪料8-10%(该比例于5月中下旬上 调)。短期内若无杂 ...
蛋白数据日报-20250610
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:24
| | 指标 | 6月9日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 | -39 | 11 | 2500 1000 | | == | | | - 24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | 天津 | -79 | 11 | 1500 | | | | | | | | 日照 | -139 | 31 | 500 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -119 | -9 | -500 09/21 10/22 | | | | | | | | 东莞 | -159 | 31 | | | M9-M1 | | | | | | 湛江 | -119 | 11 | ------ 2019/20 1000 | | ----- 2020/21 | ----- 2021/22 | | == | | | | | | 800 600 | | | | | | | | 防城 | -119 | 21 | 400 | ...
豆粕周报:现货承压下跌,连粕震荡运行-20250603
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to close at 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to close at 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2490 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.47% [4][7]. - Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and smooth sowing progress, combined with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy leading to a decline in US soybean oil, caused US soybeans to close lower in a volatile manner. In China, the oil mill crushing volume continued to rise, the bean meal inventory gradually increased, the supply became more abundant, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed had good demand, combined with the recovery of the aquaculture industry and the expectation of tightened imports, rapeseed meal showed strong performance; the Dalian bean meal had support from far - month expectations and was driven by rapeseed meal, so it closed slightly higher in a volatile manner [4][7]. - Affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil broke through the recent support level. With the US soybean sowing progress over 80% and good weather conditions conducive to the end of the sowing season, US soybeans declined in a volatile manner. In China, the increase in the oil mill crushing rate led to more supply, putting pressure on the spot price to fall; the strengthening of rapeseed meal, the non - purchase of new - season US soybeans for the time being, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations provided support for the Dalian bean meal. Overall, the Dalian bean meal may move in a volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans dropped 5 to 441 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.12%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 7 to 456 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.51%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 52.16 to 95.29 yuan per ton; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the bean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 65 to 331 yuan per ton; the East China bean meal spot price fell 40 to 2860 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.38%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 76 to - 88 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 25, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 76%, lower than the market expectation of 78%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be 65 - 75mm, slightly higher than the average. As of the week of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.49 tons, and the export net sales increased 14.6 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 4433 tons, and the cumulative export sales volume was 4846 tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans during the week, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 2248 tons. As of the week of May 23, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [8][9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 24, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvesting progress was 99.5%. Anec expected Brazil's May soybean exports to reach 1403 tons. As of the week of May 28, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 80.7%, and the dry and less - rainy climate in the next two weeks is conducive to the end of the harvesting work [9][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of the week of May 23, the main oil mill soybean inventory decreased 26.2 tons to 560.63 tons, the bean meal inventory increased 52 tons to 20.69 tons, the unexecuted contract decreased 69.84 tons to 335.4 tons, and the national port soybean inventory decreased 8.3 tons to 675.3 tons. As of the week of May 30, the national daily average bean meal trading volume was 8.258 tons, the daily average提货量 was 18.608 tons, the main oil mill crushing volume was 226.82 tons, and the feed enterprise bean meal inventory days were 5.99 days [10][11]. Industry News - Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.720 billion tons and corn production to be 1.327 billion tons [12]. - In the fourth week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipments were 1115.43 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 8.96% year - on - year; the cumulative bean meal shipments were 170.46 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 3.44% year - on - year [12][13]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean crushing volume decreased 7.2% month - on - month, and the rapeseed crushing volume decreased 10.27% month - on - month [13]. - From May 19 to May 23, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil was 605.05 reais per ton [13]. - As of May 25, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 257 tons, soybean imports were 1269 tons, bean meal imports were 1732 tons, and rapeseed imports were 632 tons [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to slightly decline to 4870 tons [15]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is lowered by 1% to 1800 tons, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% [16]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is 620 tons, supported by long - term weather prospects [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the bean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional bean meal spot price, the bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean sowing progress, the US soybean export - related data, the US oil mill crushing profit, the bean meal weekly average trading volume, the bean meal weekly average提货量, the port soybean inventory, the oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume, and the oil mill crushing rate [18][20][23][24] etc.
蛋白数据日报-20250508
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 05:52
| 指标 | | 5月7日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 | 530 | 65 | 2500 2000 1000 | | | ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 | | = 23/24 | 24/25 | | | 天津 | 380 | 115 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | 200 | -35 | 500 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 280 | -5 | -500 | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 | | 02/23 | 03/75 | | 08/27 | | | 东莞 | 380 | 65 | | | | 18-6W | ...