Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gasoline crack spreads are declining, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes, PTA units maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Korean manufacturers plan to cut STDP operation and shut down relevant units in the second half of December due to the widened PX - mixed xylene spread. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises' economic benefits improve. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, increasing PTA consumption and market inventory intention, and strengthening the basis. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have low inventories and low willingness to cut production, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification may drive export growth [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - PTA spot price increased from 5015 to 5050, MEG inner - market price rose from 3573 to 3653, and PTA closing price went up from 5094 to 5152. The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6550 to 6575. Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets rose, with the average price up 30 yuan/ton. Cotton 328 price increased from 14910 to 15000 [2] Market Transaction - In the short - fiber market, downstream purchasing is cautious, and the market is mainly bought by futures - spot traders with scarce transactions. In the bottle - chip market, the trading atmosphere is cautious, and downstream terminals are on the sidelines [2] Industry Operation Indicators - The direct - spun short - fiber load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, and the polyester short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 80.00% to 56.00%. The polyester yarn startup rate and the recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged [2][3] Profit and Cost - The polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 527 to 469, the T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3800 to 3775, and the polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1321 to 1271. The cash flow of 6 - 15D hollow short - fiber decreased from 465 to 408 [2]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/12/15 | 指标 | | 12月12日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 97 | 12 | 1600 | == ====== 22/23 | | == == | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 天津 日照 | 37 | 32 | 1200 400 -400 | | | | | | | | | | 57 | 32 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 17 | 32 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | | 10/27 11 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. - **Sugar**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. - **Pigs**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable on Wednesday, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2,990 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL statistics showed that the domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons last week. MYSTEEL predicted that the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1579 million tons, compared with 1.8057 million tons last week [2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and the production from November 1 - 10 decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. The 2025/26 annual rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons. Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons. On Wednesday, the domestic oil prices showed a differentiated trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The survey showed that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons in the second half of October. Datagro lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%. On November 11, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.23 yuan/kg, and the purchase index of hand - picked cotton decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.92 yuan/kg [15]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped by 0.01 yuan to 2.95 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the market demand was average, and it is expected that today's egg price will be mainly stable with a few narrow adjustments [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.14 yuan to 11.84 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 11.43 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped by 0.13 yuan to 11.46 yuan/kg. The demand was weak, and it is expected that today's pig price will continue to decline [21]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22].

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report issued by ITG Guomao Futures' Agricultural Products Research Center on June 10, 2025, with analyst Huang Xianglan [2][3] Group 2: Spot Basis Data - 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was -39 on June 9, up 11; in Tianjin -79, up 11; in Rizhao -139, up 31; in Zhangjiagang -119, down 9; in Dongguan -159, up 31; in Zhanjiang -119, up 11; in Fangcheng -119, up 21 [4] - Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was -184 on June 9, down 6 [4] Group 3: Spread Data - M9 - 1 was -41; N9 - RM9 was -3; RM9 - 1 was 263; spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 430, up 40; spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 405, up 3 [4][5] Group 4: Supply Situation - Domestic arrivals of Brazilian soybeans in May, June, and July 2025 are expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. As of June 9, the ship - buying progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early growth [5] Group 5: Demand Situation - From the perspective of inventory, pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [6] Group 6: Inventory Situation - As of last week, domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period. Soybean meal inventory also continued to accumulate but is still at a low level. With the significant recovery of开机 and pressing, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate at an accelerated pace in June [6] Group 7: Core View - The precipitation in Nebraska and surrounding areas in the US production area has been relatively low recently, but there is no high - temperature cooperation. Brazilian premium has slightly declined tonight. Domestic soybean and soybean meal continue to accumulate inventory, but the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is currently relatively slow. Domestic basis continues to decline. The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is expected to continue to be reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. As domestic ship - buying progresses, the short - term upward space of M09 is expected to be relatively limited [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Forecasts suggest the US soybean - producing regions will be dry in the next two weeks, which is expected to facilitate sowing. Brazilian soybean premiums are weak, with far - month contracts relatively firm. In China, a large amount of soybeans are expected to arrive in the second quarter. Domestic oil mills are expected to gradually resume crushing after the May Day holiday, leading to a stock - building cycle for soybean meal. As the pressure on spot supply increases, the basis is expected to continue to adjust. The futures market is expected to remain range - bound and weak in the short term, awaiting further release of spot pressure [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on May 7th: in Dalian it was 530 with a 65 increase; in Tianjin 380 with a 115 increase; in日照 it was 200 with a 35 decrease; in张家港 280 with a 5 decrease; in Dongguan 380 with a 65 increase; in Zhanjiang 380 with a 5 decrease; in Fangcheng 360 with a 25 increase. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 114 with a 17 decrease [4] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 849 with a 70 increase, and the futures spread of the main contract was 355 with a 12 decrease. The N9 - 1 spread was - 41 with an 8 increase, and the RM9 - 1 spread was 1200 with a 220 increase [5] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1761 with a 10 decrease. The soybean CNF premium was 213.00 cents per bushel. The futures crushing profit was 137 yuan per ton. Regarding inventory, data on national major oil mills' soybean inventory, Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were presented, along with trends in national major oil mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes [5]