Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Next week (01.19 - 01.23), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures may rebound. For soybean meal, although the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations had a bearish impact on prices, the market has already factored them in. After these events, there is no further negative news, so the soybean meal price is expected to rebound from a low level. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), US soybean futures prices first declined due to the bearish USDA report and then rose because of Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (due to the possible formulation of 2026 biofuel blending quotas in March in the US). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.61%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 4.58% [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: - **Chinese Purchases**: From January 12 to January 16, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations were about 1.4 million tons (mostly for 2025/26 delivery, and a few for 2026/27 delivery) [2]. - **USDA Export Sales Report**: In the week of January 8, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipments were about 1.64 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative export shipments were about 17.98 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 2.06 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 1.22 million tons (0.47 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - **USDA Reports**: The January USDA monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in the ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. According to the USDA quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. These two reports had a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 has a bullish impact and needs to be monitored [2][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, mainly affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) had a weekly decline of 2.12% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to rise next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - January 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold at an average transaction price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated, mainly affected by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly upward spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) had a weekly decline of 1.23% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: In Northeast China, the net grain purchase price of soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean grain passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In inland areas, the net grain purchase price of soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Farmer and Market Sentiment**: In the Northeast production area, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expect prices to rise and ask for high prices. Most traders are cautious about purchasing and consume their inventories, and the speed of goods flowing to the market is slow. High prices suppress transactions, and there is a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets. In the sales areas, the soybean price increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance is low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, the arrival cost continued to rise, and the selling price was adjusted accordingly. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which suppressed the overall trading speed of the market [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a seasonal reduction in domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories from December to January 2025, with uncertainties in soybean meal supply in Q1 2026. The overall market is expected to be stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [6][7] - Delays in customs clearance in China are favorable for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Weak US soybean exports, lack of significant weather - related speculation in South America, and expected pressure on Brazilian premiums suggest that the M05 contract may be relatively weak [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) varies by region, with values such as 97 in Dalian, 37 in Tianjin, 32 in Rizhao, etc. on December 12 [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 113, with a change of 74 [4] - Various spread data are provided, including the RM1 - 5 spread of 64 with a change of - 14, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread (spot in the east) of 300 and (main contract) of 672 with a change of - 2 [4][5] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 2.9 billion bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). Brazilian new - crop production in 25/26 is predicted to reach 1.776 billion tons [6] - As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86%, compared to 78% last week, 90% last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 36% [6] - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and the soybean meal inventory is being depleted slowly [5][7] 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Market Outlook - In terms of supply, US soybean yield may be further adjusted downwards due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September, and there is uncertainty in exports. Brazilian and Argentine planting progress and future precipitation conditions are also mentioned. In China, the supply of soybean meal in Q1 2026 is uncertain [6][7] - On the demand side, high livestock and poultry inventories in the short - term support feed demand, but low breeding profits and national policies may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream trading and good提货 performance recently [7] - Overall, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak, with customs clearance delays in China being a positive factor for near - month contracts and positive spreads [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week of 12.01 - 12.05, US soybean futures prices mainly declined due to the extension of China's purchase time and lack of expected positive factors. Domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean No.1 futures prices were weak. - In the coming week (12.08 - 12.12), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will fluctuate weakly. [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Soybean Market - **China's Purchase of US Soybeans**: On December 5, China purchased 462,000 tons of US soybeans (for delivery in the 2025/26 season). Although the event itself is positive, it is lower than expected and has limited incentive for US soybeans. [2] - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of December 5, the average weekly CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased, the average import cost slightly increased, and the average crushing profit on the futures market also increased. [2] - **Brazilian Soybean Planting**: As of the week of November 27, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 89%, lower than about 91% in the same period last year. Rainfall distribution was uneven, causing drought in some areas, but it's hard to conclude a yield decline. [2] - **Argentine Soybean Planting**: As of the week of December 4, the planting progress of 2025/26 Argentine soybeans was about 44.7%, lower than about 54% in the same period last year, mainly due to excessive moisture in central Buenos Aires. [2] - **South American Weather Forecast**: In the next two weeks (December 6 - December 19), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly higher and the temperature will be lower; precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be lower and the temperature will be basically normal. Overall, the weather in the producing areas is not a big problem. [2] Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading Volume**: The weekly trading volume of soybean meal increased. As of the week of December 5, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 140,000 tons, compared with about 120,000 tons in the previous week. [3] - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of soybean meal slightly decreased. As of the week of December 5, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 184,000 tons, compared with about 188,000 tons in the previous week. [3] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) increased to about 143 yuan/ton, compared with about - 10 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 198 yuan/ton in the same period last year. [4] - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased both weekly and year - on - year. As of the week of November 28, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.08 million tons, with a weekly increase of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 45%. [4] - **Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume decreased, and it is expected to increase next week. As of the week of December 5, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.06 million tons, and the operating rate was about 57%. Next week (December 6 - December 12), the crushing volume is expected to be about 2.21 million tons, and the operating rate will be 61%. [4] Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - **Soybean Price**: The price of soybean No.1 was stable with a slight increase. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans increased by 40 yuan/ton; in the Inner Pass region, the price was flat; and in the sales areas, the price was also flat. [5] - **State Reserve Purchase**: There were no new purchase points for the state reserve. After the opening of purchases at Suihua and Harbin direct - controlled depots, the price was higher than other depots in the province, but there were still few trucks delivering soybeans. [5] - **Farmer's Selling Sentiment**: The increase in the purchase price in the Northeast产区 loosened farmers' reluctance to sell, but the market's acceptance of the increased - price soybeans was average. Later in the week, some large trading entities slightly lowered the purchase price due to rumors of state reserve sales. [5] - **Sales Area Demand**: The pattern of "better in the north and stable in the south" in the sales area demand continued. In the north, the demand for soy products increased due to lower temperatures, and the trading speed of Northeast soybeans was fair; in the south, the demand for edible soybeans did not improve significantly, and the trading speed was normal but slow. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. Core View of the Report - Soybean meal is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering, which will stimulate vessel bookings. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is still to sell on rallies [4]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to view it with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. - For live pigs, the current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The USDA has resumed data release and announced the schedule for the soybean sales report. The Brazilian soybean planting rate as of last Thursday reached 61% of the expected level, lower than 67% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the southeastern part of the Brazilian soybean - producing area will be uneven and scarce, while it will be normal in other areas. The domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost is mainly in a volatile state. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering. In the medium - term, the strategy is still to sell on rallies as the global soybean supply is expected to be loose [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From November 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. The production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and from November 1 - 10, it decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. India's palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports in October all decreased compared with September. Indonesia plans to start road tests on vehicles using biodiesel with a 50% palm oil content in early December and implement the "B50" mandatory measure in the second half of next year. Domestic oils showed a divergent trend on Thursday, with palm oil being weak and rapeseed oil being strong [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to view palm oil with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of October is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons. Datagro has lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season [9]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. As of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, showing a decline. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index remained unchanged, while the hand - picked cotton purchase index decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is average [15]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic live pig price continued to decline yesterday. The demand side shows no sign of improvement, and the upstream breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. - **Sugar**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. - **Pigs**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable on Wednesday, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2,990 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL statistics showed that the domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons last week. MYSTEEL predicted that the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1579 million tons, compared with 1.8057 million tons last week [2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and the production from November 1 - 10 decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. The 2025/26 annual rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons. Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons. On Wednesday, the domestic oil prices showed a differentiated trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The survey showed that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons in the second half of October. Datagro lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%. On November 11, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.23 yuan/kg, and the purchase index of hand - picked cotton decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.92 yuan/kg [15]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped by 0.01 yuan to 2.95 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the market demand was average, and it is expected that today's egg price will be mainly stable with a few narrow adjustments [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.14 yuan to 11.84 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 11.43 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped by 0.13 yuan to 11.46 yuan/kg. The demand was weak, and it is expected that today's pig price will continue to decline [21]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs further verification. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to show a range - bound trend, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term. The domestic sugar price is generally bearish, while the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. The egg price may rise steadily in the short - term, and the short - term trend of the hog price is weak, but there is potential support [3][5][10][13][16][18][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, US soybeans fell due to concerns about demand, and there was no new information on Sino - US soybean trade. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded slightly. Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybeans both accumulated inventory, and the soybean meal inventory was still high. The soybean good rate in the US has declined, and the Brazilian premium has rebounded after a decline. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to start destocking in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, while production decreased. Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase. Before the fourth Sino - US talks in late October or early November, the domestic soybean meal cost will gradually increase. If the US soybeans are purchased after the talks and the South American new crop has a good harvest, the domestic soybean meal price may decline. On Wednesday, the three major domestic oils and fats were weak, with large foreign capital short - selling [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats have fallen due to high valuations and weak commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, and low inventory support the price center. Palm oil may be bullish in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi increased year - on - year, while that in Yunnan decreased. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased, while that in Yunnan increased [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since July, the domestic sugar import supply has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the new season. The overall view is bearish. The downward space depends on the international market [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell slightly. The global 2025/26 cotton production and ending inventory are expected to decrease compared to the previous month's forecast. As of August 31, the US cotton good rate decreased but was still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, with the approaching of the peak consumption season and low domestic inventory, the situation may improve. Technically, the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply was relatively stable, and the market was trading normally. The egg price may continue to be stable with some increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in the elimination of laying hens and the increase in demand due to pre - festival stocking, the egg price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the medium - term pressure [18]. Hogs - **Spot Information**: The domestic hog price was mostly stable with some declines. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The hog price may decline today, and some low - price areas may remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the failure of the expected rebound in the spot price, the market is trading the reality of oversupply. In September, the supply may still be weak, but there is potential support from demand and other factors. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound [21].

Group 1: Report Information - Report issued by ITG Guomao Futures' Agricultural Products Research Center on June 10, 2025, with analyst Huang Xianglan [2][3] Group 2: Spot Basis Data - 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was -39 on June 9, up 11; in Tianjin -79, up 11; in Rizhao -139, up 31; in Zhangjiagang -119, down 9; in Dongguan -159, up 31; in Zhanjiang -119, up 11; in Fangcheng -119, up 21 [4] - Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was -184 on June 9, down 6 [4] Group 3: Spread Data - M9 - 1 was -41; N9 - RM9 was -3; RM9 - 1 was 263; spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 430, up 40; spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 405, up 3 [4][5] Group 4: Supply Situation - Domestic arrivals of Brazilian soybeans in May, June, and July 2025 are expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. As of June 9, the ship - buying progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early growth [5] Group 5: Demand Situation - From the perspective of inventory, pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [6] Group 6: Inventory Situation - As of last week, domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period. Soybean meal inventory also continued to accumulate but is still at a low level. With the significant recovery of开机 and pressing, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate at an accelerated pace in June [6] Group 7: Core View - The precipitation in Nebraska and surrounding areas in the US production area has been relatively low recently, but there is no high - temperature cooperation. Brazilian premium has slightly declined tonight. Domestic soybean and soybean meal continue to accumulate inventory, but the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is currently relatively slow. Domestic basis continues to decline. The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is expected to continue to be reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. As domestic ship - buying progresses, the short - term upward space of M09 is expected to be relatively limited [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Forecasts suggest the US soybean - producing regions will be dry in the next two weeks, which is expected to facilitate sowing. Brazilian soybean premiums are weak, with far - month contracts relatively firm. In China, a large amount of soybeans are expected to arrive in the second quarter. Domestic oil mills are expected to gradually resume crushing after the May Day holiday, leading to a stock - building cycle for soybean meal. As the pressure on spot supply increases, the basis is expected to continue to adjust. The futures market is expected to remain range - bound and weak in the short term, awaiting further release of spot pressure [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on May 7th: in Dalian it was 530 with a 65 increase; in Tianjin 380 with a 115 increase; in日照 it was 200 with a 35 decrease; in张家港 280 with a 5 decrease; in Dongguan 380 with a 65 increase; in Zhanjiang 380 with a 5 decrease; in Fangcheng 360 with a 25 increase. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 114 with a 17 decrease [4] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 849 with a 70 increase, and the futures spread of the main contract was 355 with a 12 decrease. The N9 - 1 spread was - 41 with an 8 increase, and the RM9 - 1 spread was 1200 with a 220 increase [5] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1761 with a 10 decrease. The soybean CNF premium was 213.00 cents per bushel. The futures crushing profit was 137 yuan per ton. Regarding inventory, data on national major oil mills' soybean inventory, Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were presented, along with trends in national major oil mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes [5]