Core Insights - Gold prices are at a three-week low, hovering near $3300, as the dollar remains strong ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes [1][2] - Market expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished, with a current 85% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 91% a week prior [2] - The upcoming speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is highly anticipated, as it may provide insights into the Fed's future policy direction [3] Market Dynamics - The dollar's strength is attributed to expectations that Powell will counter aggressive rate cut bets during his speech [2] - Weak U.S. labor and consumer inflation data have led to market predictions of two rate cuts this year, with the first expected in September [2] - Recent strong U.S. housing data has also contributed to the dollar's rise, alongside geopolitical developments regarding Ukraine [2] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a bearish crossover, with the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) closing below the 50-day SMA [4] - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is currently at 43.50, suggesting further downside potential for gold prices [4] - Key support levels for gold are at $3311 (100-day SMA) and $3274 (July 31 low), with a psychological level at $3250 [5] Price Targets - Resistance is noted around $3346, where the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA converge [5] - The next bullish targets are the previous week's high of $3375 and the $3400 psychological level [5]

Group 1 - Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) has seen a price increase of 2.83%, trading at $407.22, with a price-target hike to $433 from $417, benefiting from a 10.9% quarterly gain and breaking into the black year to date [1] - The company is set to report second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, Aug. 19, with options traders optimistic about continued positive performance [1] - Historically, Home Depot has a modest post-earnings move average of 1.5% over the last two years, with five out of eight reports resulting in upward movements, including a 2.8% gain in February [2] Group 2 - The options market is currently pricing in a larger than usual post-earnings move of 4.9% for the upcoming earnings report [2] - Calls have been favored by traders, as indicated by a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.11, which is above 98% of readings from the past year [3] - The Schaefer's Volatility Index (SVI) for Home Depot is at 23%, indicating relatively low volatility expectations and sitting in the 13th percentile of readings from the past 12 months [3] Group 3 - The stock's 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 76, indicating it is in "overbought" territory and at its highest levels of the year [4]

Group 1 - As of July 31, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, held 954.51 tons of gold, a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a continued decline in gold ETF holdings amid weak gold prices [2] - On July 31, spot gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $3,314.87 per ounce before closing at $3,288.70, up $13.78 or 0.42%, driven by a pullback in the US dollar and opportunistic buying after a previous drop [2] - Analysts suggest that when gold prices fall below $3,300, traders view it as a valuable investment opportunity, especially given the current economic uncertainties and renewed tariff threats from Trump [2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported a significant increase in global gold ETF demand for the second consecutive quarter, with inflows in China's gold ETFs reaching 464 billion yuan in Q2, marking the strongest quarterly performance on record [3] - Despite a slowdown in central bank gold purchases in Q2, the World Gold Council believes geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to drive central banks to acquire gold [3] - Following the release of the latest US inflation data, gold prices experienced a decline, as the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may dampen Fed rate cut expectations [3] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) fell below the 50-day moving average, confirming a bearish crossover, indicating a continued short-term bearish sentiment [4] - If selling pressure persists, gold prices may target the 100-day moving average near $3,265, with further support at the June 30 low of $3,248 and the May 20 low of $3,205 [4] - For upward movement, gold prices need to break above the psychological level of $3,300 and reclaim resistance around the 21-day and 50-day moving averages near $3,340 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price remains stable around $3327 per ounce as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches, with limited bullish potential for gold [1][2]. Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with investors closely analyzing the wording of the statement and Chairman Powell's speech for clues on future rate cuts [4][5]. Technical Analysis - Despite a reduction in negative momentum, there is still a risk of further declines in gold prices. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) acts as a dynamic resistance at $3345 per ounce, while the 100-day SMA provides support at $3250 per ounce [6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3301.90, $3287.30, and $3274.05 per ounce, while resistance levels are at $3345.00, $3361.80, and $3377.15 per ounce [8].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are rebounding, driven by concerns over trade tensions and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, following recent tariff announcements by President Trump [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have rebounded from a weekly low of $3283, supported by the weakening U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields [3][5]. - The U.S. Treasury yields have decreased due to renewed economic growth concerns and strong demand for $39 billion in 10-year bonds [6]. - President Trump announced new tariffs on various goods, including a 20% tariff on products from the Philippines and 50% on copper imports, effective August 1 [6][7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices successfully recovered the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3297, despite briefly testing below this level [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 48.50, indicating a lack of bullish confidence [12]. - A sustained breakthrough above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance at $3323 is necessary for a meaningful rebound towards the 21-day SMA at $3346 [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus is on Trump's tariff negotiations, upcoming U.S. economic data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers for new trading signals for gold prices [9]. - Continued weakness in the dollar and low Treasury yields may provide ongoing support for non-yielding gold prices [9]. - If gold prices are rejected at the 50-day SMA, increased selling pressure could lead to a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at $3297 [14].

Group 1 - Netflix Inc has been downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" by Seaport Research Partners due to concerns over its long-term valuation and limited growth potential, particularly regarding advertising and new project launches [1] - The stock has experienced significant growth since mid-2022, with a 45% increase in 2025 and reaching a record high of $1,341.15 on June 30 [2] - The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Netflix closed at 71, indicating it is nearing "overbought" territory, which could signal potential price declines [2] Group 2 - Options traders are increasingly buying puts, with a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.87, ranking higher than 98% of readings from the past year, suggesting a growing interest in protective positions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continue to decline, dropping below $3,250, influenced by a strengthening dollar and cautious sentiment from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rise in the dollar is driven by strong buying interest, supported by the Federal Reserve's cautious meeting minutes and a court ruling against Trump's tariffs [4][5]. - The court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, stating he lacked the authority to impose broad tariffs on goods from countries that sell more to the U.S. than they purchase [5]. - Market optimism was bolstered by Nvidia's strong earnings report, which exceeded industry expectations, contributing to the dollar's recovery [6][7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken below the midline, indicating a potential shift in buying interest for gold, with key support at $3,295 being breached [2][16]. - Sellers currently dominate the market, with the next critical support level for gold at $3,230, coinciding with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) [16]. - If gold closes below $3,230, attention may shift to the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $3,168, which previously saw a rebound to a two-week high of $3,366 [17][18]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Focus is shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which could influence the Federal Reserve's stance and potentially lead to a dollar pullback [10][11]. - Weekly unemployment claims and revised GDP data may provide trading incentives for both dollar and gold traders [12].

Group 1 - Peloton Interactive Inc reported a fiscal third-quarter loss of 12 cents per share, which was wider than the expected loss of 7 cents per share, but still represents a 73% improvement year-over-year [1] - The company's revenue for the quarter was $624 million, exceeding expectations but showing a decline compared to the previous year [1] - Peloton has raised its outlook for 2025, indicating a positive long-term perspective despite current challenges [1] Group 2 - Following the earnings report, Peloton's stock dropped 13.8% to $6.02, with the stock having averaged a 19% post-earnings swing over the past two years [2] - Year-to-date, Peloton's equity is down 29.4%, and the stock has faced resistance at the $7 level, which aligns with its 80-day moving average [2] - The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Peloton was noted at 80, indicating it was deep in "oversold" territory prior to the drop [2] Group 3 - There is a notable interest in options trading for Peloton, with 65,000 calls exchanged compared to 8,302 puts, resulting in an overall options volume that is 2.5 times the average daily amount [3] - The most popular options are the weekly 5/9 6-strike call and the June 8 call, suggesting bullish sentiment among options traders [3] Group 4 - Over the past two weeks, there has been a significant call bias in Peloton's options trading, with 24,255 calls traded against just 4,447 puts [4]