Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is potentially entering a parabolic uptrend phase, supported by historical price cycles and technical indicators, suggesting further upward movement before reaching a peak around October 2025 [1][5][6] Bitcoin Price Cycle Analysis - Historical data indicates that previous Bitcoin cycles lasted approximately 1064 days, with the current cycle expected to reach this duration by October 2025, implying room for price increases [1] - The price trend from April to May shows a clear upward movement, with the RSI breaking above 50, indicating a new bullish trend [1] - The MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, which would further confirm the establishment of a new upward trend [1] Technical Patterns - Bitcoin appears to be breaking out of a bullish flag pattern, with the historical high of $109,000 serving as a critical resistance level [2] - The potential for a price pullback before testing the $109,000 level is noted, indicating market volatility [2] Economic Influences - The finalization of trade agreements could positively impact the stock market and, consequently, Bitcoin prices, as market uncertainties diminish [2] - Anticipation of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could enhance market liquidity, benefiting both Bitcoin and stock markets, although this depends on upcoming inflation data [2][4] Price Target and Projections - The expected peak price for Bitcoin in this cycle is projected to be around $150,000, based on Fibonacci levels, which is ten times the cycle's bottom price of $15,000 [5] - The parabolic uptrend phase is expected to last approximately six months, potentially starting in April and continuing until September 2025 [5][6]

Group 1 - The market sentiment model indicates a recovery in market sentiment, with a positive bias as the sentiment score rose to 1.5 as of May 9, 2025, following a low point on April 18, 2025, marking 12 consecutive trading days of upward recovery [1] - The A-share market continues to show signs of sentiment recovery, with the main capital's sentiment remaining acceptable and the price-volume consistency score increasing compared to the previous week [4] - The total transaction volume of the A-share market saw a significant rebound, reaching a peak of 1.5 trillion RMB on Wednesday [6] Group 2 - The sentiment indicators suggest that the main capital has seen net outflows from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, but there has been a notable recovery in sentiment since mid-April, with net inflows of 1.54 million RMB on May 6 and 3.84 million RMB on May 9 [9] - The degree of price-volume consistency has increased, indicating a higher alignment between industry performance and transaction volume, although the long-term trend score for industry performance remains at zero, suggesting a lack of clear market leadership [12] - The market style is shifting towards growth, with several industries such as oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, light industry manufacturing, and power equipment showing short-term positive signals, while real estate and social services have seen significant declines [14][15] Group 3 - The market style has transitioned from large-cap value to small-cap growth, with the style RSI timing model signaling a clear shift from large-cap value to small-cap growth [21] - The performance of major indices from April to May shows a trend of switching from dividend value to small-cap growth, with the CSI 300 index showing a return of 2.00% from May 6 to May 9 [22] - The timing model indicates that the CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices have short-term positive signals, while the CSI 2000 shows a significant increase in short-term scores [25][26]

市场情绪自3月20日持续调整，于4月18日下降至低点，数值为0.1。本周市场情绪指标在接近0轴处开始向上反弹，回升至0.5，数值较上周五(4/18)上升0.4，模型转多，市场 情绪有所缓和。 本周A股市场提示市场情绪有一定修复，较上周明显发生变化的指标有科创50成交占比、主力买入力量和期权波动率。主力流出速率减缓和VIX指标体现的恐慌程度减弱是本 周市场情绪回升的主要原因。 科创50成交占比、行业涨跌趋势性、主力买入力量和PCR结合VIX，分别代表了市场风险偏好程度下降，市场情绪不确定性增强，主力流出速度 减缓和期权市场恐慌情绪缓和。其他指标维持和上周一致的判断。 资金当前对成长高估值板块观点不确定性较强。 自上周科创50成交占比指标快速下跌至下轨以下后，本周科创50成交占比指标仍在持续下降。本周主力资金持续从科创板块 流出，累计净流出超过32亿人民币。 投资者信心逐渐恢复，市场的活跃度和投资者参与度都有了明显提升。 除了看到主力资金本周流出科创板，主力资金本周在全A仍然呈现净流出的态势，但流出速度较上周有 所减缓，主力流出主力买入力量指标有所回升。从主力资金净流出绝对量看，主力资金本周累计净流出超过370亿 ...

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪进一步下行 根 据 《 从 结 构 化 视 角 全 新 打 造 市 场 情 绪 择 时 模 型 》 文 中 提 到 的 构 建 思 路 ， 目 前 我 们 用 于 构 建 市 场 情 绪 结 构 指 标 所 用 到 的 细 分 指 标 如 下 表 | 指标简称 | 含义 | 情绪指示方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业间交易波动率 | 资金在各板块间的交易活跃度 | 正向 | | 行业交易拥挤度 | 极值状态判断市场是否过热 | 负向 | | 价量一致性 | 资金情绪稳定性 | 正向 | | 科创 50 成交占比 | 资金风险偏好 | 正向 | | 行业涨跌趋势性 | 刻画市场轮涨补涨程度，趋势衡量 | 正向 | | RSI | 价格体现买方和卖方力量相对强弱 | 正向 | | 主力买入力量 | 主力资金净流入水平 | 正向 | | PCR 结合 VIX | 从期权指标看市场多空情绪 | 正向或负向 | | 融资余额占比 | 资金对当前和未来观点多空 | 6 公众号 · 普罗完酒会工 | 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment has declined for two consecutive weeks, suggesting a bearish short-term outlook for market timing [1] - The market sentiment structure indicator was at 1.6 as of March 28, 2025, down 0.6 from the previous week, signaling a bearish outlook for the upcoming week [1] - The article highlights that the A-share market has experienced a decrease in trading volume, with a shift in funds from high-valuation growth sectors to low-valuation defensive sectors [5][9] Group 2 - The sentiment structure indicators show a negative signal, with trading volume decreasing and price-volume consistency declining to low levels [3] - The article notes that the overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped to levels close to the beginning of the year, primarily due to a cooling off in the technology growth sector [5] - The article mentions that various industries have shown mixed performance, with a low degree of price-volume consistency, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [9] Group 3 - The cyclical defensive sectors are showing a predominantly bullish signal, with short-term trends favoring large-cap value stocks [12] - The public utilities sector continues to indicate a bullish signal, with other sectors like coal, transportation, and petrochemicals also showing positive short-term signals [12] - The relative strength indicators suggest that the large-cap and value styles are currently dominant, with a strong certainty of a shift towards large-cap and value stocks in the short term [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment remains highly volatile, with a short-term shift from bullish to bearish [1][2] - The market sentiment structure indicator reached a low of -0.85 on January 13, 2023, and has since recovered, peaking at 2.2 as of March 21, 2025, signaling a bearish outlook for the upcoming week [2][3] - Despite a generally optimistic view on A-shares, there is an increasing emphasis on defensive attributes as the market shows signs of weakness [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis of various sector indicators shows that the public utilities sector continues to signal bullish trends, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and coal are also showing positive short-term signals [5][6] - The technology and media sectors have experienced significant pullbacks, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [5][6] - The relative strength index (RSI) analysis indicates that the overall market sentiment is shifting towards value styles, with a stronger certainty in the short-term transition to value [6][7]