Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - The short - term sentiment drives the lithium carbonate price to run strongly, but it is necessary to be vigilant that the high price is unsustainable. After a short - term over - increase, the price will face a callback, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing long positions [3][4] Summary by Related Catalog News of Lithium Carbonate Production Suspension - Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area in Yichun suspended production on August 10th with no short - term restart plan. The lithium carbonate futures contract price reached the daily limit of 81,000 yuan/ton at the opening on August 11th [3] - Ningde Times stated on the interactive platform on August 11th that the mining operation of its Yichun project was suspended after the mining license expired on August 9th, and it is applying for the renewal of the mining license as soon as possible [3] Production Capacity and Cost of Shixiawo Mining Area - The annual mining scale of Shixiawo is 45 million tons, with an average grade (lithium oxide content) of 0.27%. Under full - production status, the annual output of lithium carbonate is 60,000 tons, and the monthly output is 5,000 - 6,000 tons, accounting for 9.4% of the national total output last year [3] - The cash cost of lithium carbonate production in 2024 was 87,700 yuan, and the full cost exceeded 100,000 yuan after adding the lithium resource tax, with relatively low market competitiveness [3] Market Reaction and Price Trend - The market had anticipated the suspension of Shixiawo. The price of the lithium carbonate main contract had risen 10.54% in the two trading days last Thursday and Friday, and continued to rise to 81,000 yuan/ton after the news was confirmed [3] - Currently, downstream demanders have a low willingness to stock up in large quantities and mainly focus on rigid demand, and it is difficult to accept such high - priced raw materials. If the high price persists, the supply will quickly increase as other manufacturers' profit margins recover [3] Impact of New Mineral Resources Law - Other lithium mines in Yichun do not have the problem of immediate mining license expiration. The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau has required relevant mines to supplement resource reserve reports by the end of September, and will comprehensively consider whether to re - approve mining licenses according to the new mineral law [3] - The new mineral law increases the resource tax rate for low - grade lithium mines and has higher environmental protection requirements, which raises the production cost of mica - extracted lithium and provides some support for the lithium carbonate price [3]

8月11日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前前。其中，碳酸锂期货所有合约均触及涨停，主力合约 （2511）涨幅8%，现报81000元/吨。 据国泰君安期货分析，锂矿停产风波扰动，价格预期走强。根据期货日报发布信息，宁德时代枧下窝矿 区停产，且短期不复产，预计碳酸锂价格将明显抬升。锂元素月度供需平衡的过剩幅度将呈现明显收 窄，并且下游企业碳酸锂客供比例预期将有下调的可能。价格上行的节点来看，在国内锂矿库存消耗、 日韩转口贸易、海外矿山发运增量、智利阿根廷进口碳酸锂、硫酸锂等明显增加以弥补缺口前，预计碳 酸锂价格将维持上行格局。考虑到贸易物流时间，给予锂价提供上行的时间空间。与此同时，仍需高度 关注项目的复工进展，复工后价格将快速下跌至成本抬升的价格中枢。截止上周五SMM长协基准价期 现基差（2509合约）周环比下跌7170元/吨至-4740元/吨，后续盘面继续大幅上行则存在较强的基差修复 可能。受事件型驱动影响，预计近期锂价波动加剧，建议投资者谨慎持仓。 申银万国期货表示，短期核心矛盾仍集中在仓单库存，特别是海外矿山财报将陆续披露，需要关注停 产/减产的项目情况。中期来看，新增产能还在陆续上车，不认为具备中期反转基 ...

Group 1 - The recent news regarding the potential shutdown of major lithium mining operations has significantly impacted lithium carbonate prices [1] - On August 9, it was reported that the mining operations at the Jiangxiawo mining area of CATL will cease at midnight [1] - Starting from August 10, the mining activities at this site will be halted with no plans for a short-term resumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by supply concerns related to mining permit compliance issues in Jiangxi, coupled with a seasonal recovery in downstream demand [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Changes - Supply side: Lithium carbonate weekly production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, but an overall increase of 3% to 84,200 tons is expected in August [2] - Demand side: There is a seasonal uptick in demand as downstream battery material manufacturers increase production plans, with rising inquiries due to the transition from off-peak to peak season [2] Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - Market sentiment is aggressive, with expectations of significant price fluctuations until clarity on the Jiangxi mining situation is achieved [2] - The recent price increase of 7.73% in lithium carbonate futures reflects heightened market activity and speculation [1] Inventory and Supply Chain Response - As of August 7, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 142,400 tons, showing a slight increase, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [3] - Different strategies are being adopted across the supply chain, with cautious purchasing behavior observed among downstream material manufacturers due to sensitivity to current high lithium prices [3] Future Market Outlook - There are mixed views on the future trajectory of lithium carbonate prices, with some expecting a slight reduction in inventory while others remain cautious due to ongoing inventory concerns and upcoming financial disclosures from overseas mines [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On July 31, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined, with trading volume at 521,849 lots (-271,060) and open interest at 229,368 lots (-43,385). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. On the cost side, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price also dropped. In terms of supply, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased. Regarding downstream demand, last week, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate decreased, while that of ternary materials increased. In July, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and that of lithium manganate increased slightly. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In July, the production schedule of energy storage batteries increased. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 5,545 tons (-6,731), and the social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Overall, commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's restrictions cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate. In operation, it is recommended to appropriately stop losses on put options [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Contract Closing Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 68,000 yuan/ton, 68,280 yuan/ton, 68,600 yuan/ton, and 68,600 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 521,849 lots (-271,060), and the open interest was 229,368 lots (-43,385) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 5,545 tons (-6,731) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 280 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 320 yuan/ton (-340), and the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 3,720 yuan/ton (+1,370) [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 to 375 dollars/ton or yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder type lithium hydroxide increased by 200 yuan/ton. The price of 99.95% domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 53,250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads of Lithium Compounds**: The spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 6,330 yuan/ton (+1,150), and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,100 yuan/ton (0) [1]. 3.3 Other Battery Materials - **Ternary Precursor and Material Prices**: The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials generally showed small changes, with increases or decreases ranging from 30 to 100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Prices**: The average prices of power - type, mid - high - end energy - storage type, and low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 305, 330, and 330 yuan/ton respectively [1][2]. - **Electrolyte Prices**: The average prices of electrolytes for ternary power, lithium iron phosphate, and manganese acid lithium remained unchanged, while the prices of electrolytes for cobalt acid lithium and other types were 0 [1]. - **Cobalt Spot Prices**: The average prices of electrolytic cobalt, cobalt sulfate, and tricobalt tetroxide increased by 5,500, 125, and 150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4 Inventory - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,726 tons (-1,444), with smelters' inventory at 21,958 tons (-3,427), downstream inventory at 45,888 tons (+3,073), and other inventory at 43,880 tons (-1,090) [1].

Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate has surged back to 80,520 yuan/ton, reaching a five-month high due to supply contraction expectations [1] - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting emphasized the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which has led to production cuts in various industries, including lithium [1] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains strong despite the traditional off-season, with a 23% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in early July [2] Group 2 - Companies with lithium resources are expected to see improved performance, as indicated by Tianqi Lithium's projected net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of the year, reversing losses [2] - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium is expected to report a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, but the loss is narrowing due to improved investment income and lithium salt business [2] - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual lithium carbonate production capacity of 40,000 tons and is advancing a 40,000-ton lithium salt integration project [3] Group 3 - Hunan Keli Yuan New Energy Co., Ltd. has fully acquired four underground lithium mines in Yichun, with estimated ore reserves of 12 million tons, equivalent to about 400,000 tons of lithium carbonate [3] - The discovery of a super-large lithium deposit in Hunan Province has revealed 490 million tons of lithium ore, with 1.31 million tons of lithium oxide resources [3] - The industry is expected to shift from price competition to value competition, favoring companies with technological advantages and cost control capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) is undergoing a potential change in control, which may impact its operations and strategic direction, amidst ongoing challenges in the lithium market [2][4]. Group 1: Control Change and Company Announcements - On July 21, Jiangte Motor announced a stock suspension due to plans for a change in control, with no formal agreements signed yet [2][4]. - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy, will initiate a comprehensive production halt for maintenance starting July 25, lasting approximately 26 days [4][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Context - As of the suspension date, Jiangte Motor's total market capitalization reached 13.207 billion yuan [3]. - The company has faced continuous losses in 2023 and 2024, with projected revenues of 2.103 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 24.86%, and a net loss of 319 million yuan [8]. - The lithium market has seen a significant drop in carbonate prices, impacting Jiangte Motor's profitability, despite growth in its motor segment [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Position and Resource Control - Jiangte Motor is a leading player in lithium extraction from mica, holding over 100 million tons of lithium resources [7]. - The company has been actively acquiring mining rights and enhancing production capabilities in Yichun, known as "Asia's Lithium Capital" [7]. - In 2020, Jiangte Motor attempted to bring in Ganfeng Lithium as a major shareholder but failed to reach an agreement [6]. Group 4: Strategic Responses to Market Conditions - The maintenance halt is aimed at reducing production costs and ensuring the safe operation of production equipment, reflecting a common strategy among leading firms to optimize operations during market downturns [6][9]. - Recent trends indicate a potential rebound in lithium carbonate prices, which may provide some support to the market, although uncertainties remain for companies like Jiangte Motor [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Affected by rumors from the supply side of Jiangxi mines, the price of lithium carbonate has rapidly soared. At the current price level, the acceptance of the spot market by downstream buyers is low, resulting in a small actual trading volume. In the short term, market sentiment is strong with frequent speculations, and the pricing weight of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase. Industrial players can consider hedging at high prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan [1] - The closing prices and daily increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: Li2508 at 76,500 yuan/ton with a 5.84% increase; Li2509 at 76,680 yuan/ton with a 7.21% increase; Li2510 at 75,460 yuan/ton with a 6.1% increase; Li2511 at 75,000 yuan/ton with a 6.17% increase; Li2512 at 74,680 yuan/ton with a 6.35% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 764 yuan, with a daily increase of 14 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1080 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1655 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 5845 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 6800 yuan, with a daily increase of 475 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,945 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 6130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7200 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1040 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 55,385 tons, a decrease of 2654 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 42,815 tons, an increase of 1544 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 44,970 tons, an increase of 1660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,690 yuan, and the profit is 910 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 74,022 yuan, and the profit is - 6048 yuan [3] Company News - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, plans to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector experienced significant fluctuations on July 18, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Jinyuan Co. hitting the daily limit up, while others like Zhongmin Resources and Tianqi Lithium also saw notable gains [1][2] - The main driver behind this market movement was a sudden announcement from Zangge Mining, which stated that its subsidiary was ordered to halt lithium resource development activities due to compliance issues [3][7] - The announcement highlighted a tightening of local government regulations regarding lithium resource development, signaling potential challenges for the industry [7] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, referred to as the "lithium mining twins," both released their half-year performance forecasts, with Tianqi expecting a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year [8] - Ganfeng Lithium, on the other hand, projected a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, although this was an improvement from a loss of 760 million yuan in the previous year [8][9] - The differing strategies of the two companies in response to lithium price fluctuations were noted, with Tianqi adjusting its pricing mechanism to a monthly basis, while Ganfeng focused on expanding its battery business [10] Group 3 - The lithium carbonate market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with prices continuing to decline, which has led to inventory pressures [10] - Recent data indicated that the price of lithium carbonate futures had reached a new high of 70,980 yuan per ton, marking a 4.32% increase [2][11] - The supply-demand dynamics are shifting, with rising costs for lithium raw materials and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting potential support for prices in the near term [11][12] Group 4 - Policy measures are being implemented to support the lithium carbonate market, including the elimination of inefficient production capacities and government stockpiling of industrial-grade lithium carbonate [12][13] - The overall sentiment in the market is currently characterized by a rebound phase driven by market emotions, although the reality of weak fundamentals may limit significant price increases [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply disruptions have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate futures prices. However, the actual impact on the fundamentals is limited, with supply increasing and demand remaining stable. Short - term downstream replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space may be limited, and the support for prices may weaken. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 63,350 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change [1][2]. - Futures contracts: Lithium carbonate 2508 closed at 68,060 yuan/ton, up 2.1%; 2509 at 67,960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%; 2510 at 67,580 yuan/ton, up 2.3%; 2511 at 67,180 yuan/ton, up 2.07%; 2512 at 67,500 yuan/ton, up 2.03% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 693 dollars/ton, with a change of 8 dollars/ton. Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 910 dollars/ton, with a change of 20 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1465 dollars/ton, with a change of 15 dollars/ton. Phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4670 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5535 dollars/ton [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,345 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,650 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,195 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,115 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade and the main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,540 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons, a decrease of 559 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons, an increase of 506 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,239 tons, a decrease of 416 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 64,189 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 126 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 69,638 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7,116 yuan/ton [3]. Company News - On the afternoon of July 17, 2025, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., received a notice from the Haixi Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi Salt Lake Administration on July 16, 2025, requiring it to stop illegal lithium resource development activities immediately, rectify actively, and improve legal procedures for resources. It can only resume production after applying and getting approval [3].