Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market remains stable overall, with slight fluctuations in certain regions, as supply increases slightly while demand remains cautious [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of May 26, the price range for light soda ash in East China is 1320-1590 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1400-1500 CNY/ton. In North China, light soda ash is priced at 1400-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1430-1520 CNY/ton [2][5]. Index Analysis - On May 26, the light soda ash price index was 1322.86, down 2.86 from the previous working day, a decrease of -0.22%. The heavy soda ash price index was 1365.71, also down 2.86, a decrease of -0.21% [3]. Futures Dynamics - On May 26, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1251 CNY/ton and closed at 1254 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.34%. The highest price during the day was 1271 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1251 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,502,342 contracts, a decrease of 26,138 contracts [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with cautious trading. Supply has slightly increased due to the resumption of some production facilities, but downstream purchasing remains primarily based on immediate needs. The market sentiment is currently one of observation, with expectations of continued narrow fluctuations in the short term [6].

Group 1 - The overall domestic soda ash market remains stable, with slight declines in some regions. Prices for light soda ash in East China are between 1340-1530 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 1420-1500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply side shows an increasing number of manufacturers undergoing maintenance and production cuts, leading to a decrease in industry operating rates, with expectations of further supply contraction in the future [2][5] - Demand is weak as downstream companies are not performing well, leading to low purchasing enthusiasm. Most companies prioritize digesting existing inventory, resulting in market transactions primarily consisting of small orders and low-price deals [2][5] Group 2 - On May 9, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1318 CNY/ton and closed at 1305 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.38%. The highest price during the day was 1329 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1300 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,221,435 contracts, an increase of 17,878 contracts [3] - The decline in soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by overall market sentiment and significant drops in downstream products. The fundamental situation for soda ash has not shown notable improvement, and while some supply-side maintenance has begun, it is insufficient to reverse the oversupply situation [3][5] Group 3 - The supply contraction trend is becoming more evident, and although demand is generally weak, some essential purchases are starting to emerge as inventory is gradually digested, providing some support to the market [5] - It is expected that short-term market prices will remain stable, with the possibility of slight increases in regions with relatively tight supply-demand structures. Future attention should be paid to the execution of new maintenance plans and changes in actual downstream purchasing rhythms [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the industry conference promotes production - cut and price - support plans. Although short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease and the mid - stream may stop reducing inventory, continuous price increases are difficult. The long - term bearish trend remains, but caution is needed before the positive feedback atmosphere ends. Traders are advised to pay attention to new order transaction prices and the implementation of maintenance and price - support plans, and short - term short - covering and then short - selling at high prices are recommended after the upward sentiment calms down [8][9]. - For the glass market, from a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended, and subsequent attention should be paid to production line changes, the digestion progress of low - price spot and futures sources, and the price - volume sentiment changes of spot in major production areas [173]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: The total weekly production is 75.51 million tons, with heavy - soda production at 41.55 million tons and light - soda production at 33.96 million tons. The import volume is 0.07 million tons, and the export volume is 4.2 million tons. There are production - cut and maintenance plans in the industry, and potential incremental production awaits the full - capacity operation of Jiangsu Debang and the subsequent commissioning of Lianyungang Alkali Plant [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - soda consumption is 34.27 million tons, and the light - soda apparent demand is 30.87 million tons. The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.54 million tons. The market's expectation for terminal demand is weak, but the short - term apparent demand may be boosted by the positive feedback between futures and spot [8]. - **Inventory**: The alkali factory inventory is 169.1 million tons, and the social inventory is 33.85 million tons. With the positive feedback and subsequent production - cut expectations, short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease, while mid - stream inventory may stop falling and start to rise [8]. - **Valuation**: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1327 yuan, and the profit is 83 yuan. The combined - soda process cost is 1170 yuan, and the profit is 140 yuan. The price difference between heavy and light soda in Central China is 40 yuan, and the basis of the market price in Shahe is 20 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The report provides monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 [15]. - **Imports and Exports**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, and the export volume is 19.43 million tons. Compared with the previous month, imports decreased by 0.23 million tons, and exports increased by 0.02 million tons. Compared with the same period last year, imports decreased by 21.23 million tons, and exports increased by 9.45 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Spot - Futures Price Comparison**: It shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - **Soda Ash Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [29][31][32]. - **Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread**: Displays the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [34][35][36]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][42]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy - soda in Shahe is 1312 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan compared with last week and 938 yuan compared with last year [47]. - **Light and Heavy Soda Regional Prices**: The prices of heavy and light soda in different regions such as North China, East China, and Central China are provided, with most prices remaining stable [51]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - up and Shutdown**: Some enterprises are currently under maintenance or reducing load, and some have planned maintenance in May [88]. - **Start - up Rate**: The current domestic soda ash start - up rate is 89.44%, with a weekly production of 75.51 million tons, heavy - soda production of 41.55 million tons, and light - soda production of 33.96 million tons [89]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit trends of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the price trends of related products such as synthetic ammonia, limestone, and caustic soda [100][102][104][106][112][122][126]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Heavy - Soda Demand**: It shows the daily melting volume of photovoltaic and float glass, the daily consumption of heavy - soda, and the weekly demand from 2020 to 2025 [137][139][140][141]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio**: Presents the weekly consumption and production - sales ratio of light and heavy soda from 2020 to 2025 [143]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: Displays the market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass from 2021 to 2025 [146][147]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The current soda ash enterprise inventory is 169.1 million tons, with light - soda enterprise inventory at 85.05 million tons and heavy - soda enterprise inventory at 84.05 million tons [151]. - **Regional Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of soda ash in different regions such as North China, Central China, and East China from 2020 to 2025 [159][160][162]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,175 tons, and the weekly production is 110.02 million tons. There are cold - repair and production - start plans for some production lines [171]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 108.47 million tons. Market sentiment suppresses the apparent demand, but the mid - and downstream purchase appropriately at low prices [171]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 327.37 million tons, and short - term inventory is expected to increase slightly due to demand suppression [171]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke production lines are provided. Low - cost production capacity still has profits, but most production capacity is in the red [171]. 3.9 Glass Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: Displays the monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 [178]. - **Imports and Exports**: Presents the monthly import and export data of float glass from 2020 to 2025 [179][183]. 3.10 Glass Basis and Spread - **Spot - Futures Price Comparison**: Shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [187][188][189][190]. - **Glass Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [192][193][194]. - **Glass Contract Inter - period Spread**: Displays the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [201][202][203][205]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Float Glass 5mm Regional Price**: Provides the price information of 5mm float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China, with some prices showing slight fluctuations [210]. - **Float Glass 5mm Large - Plate Price**: Displays the price trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price, and South China 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price from 2020 to 2025 [225]. 3.12 Glass Supply No relevant content provided for the supply part after "05 Glass Supply".

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a stable increase, with prices rising by 20-60 yuan/ton in certain regions, driven by maintenance activities and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [2][4]. Price Summary - In South China, light soda ash prices range from 1580 to 1670 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are between 1530 and 1700 yuan/ton [2]. - In Central China, light soda ash prices are at 1280-1390 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are at 1300-1450 yuan/ton [2]. - The overall market shows a price increase in South China, with a rise of 60 yuan/ton for light soda ash and 30 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash [1]. Market Dynamics - The industry operates at approximately 90% capacity, with some companies like Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical reducing output due to maintenance, while others like Tianjin Soda and Southern Soda are running at full capacity [2]. - The futures market for soda ash saw the main contract SA2509 open at 1375 yuan/ton and close at 1352 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 1.39% [3]. - The market is under pressure from upcoming delivery months and new production capacity in Lianyungang, leading to a generally weak market sentiment [3]. Future Outlook - The soda ash industry is expected to see a temporary decline in operating rates and production due to maintenance schedules, which may lead to a tightening supply and potential price increases [4]. - Continuous monitoring of major production facilities and inventory changes is recommended to assess the impact of maintenance on market dynamics [4].

2025-04-28 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 周度市场综述 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 75.51 | -0.05 | 73.71 | 69.94 | 阿拉善周内产量短时波动，供应整体高位运行；5月检修计划逐步明 | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 41.55 | -0.10 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a stable upward trend, with price increases ranging from 5 to 30 yuan per ton, driven by supply dynamics and market sentiment [2][5]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are between 1300-1500 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are between 1420-1500 yuan/ton [2]. - In Central China, light soda ash prices range from 1250-1390 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1300-1450 yuan/ton [2]. - The market shows no significant price changes in various regions, with some minor fluctuations noted [1]. Market Dynamics - The trading atmosphere is described as moderate, with a strong sense of observation among market participants [2]. - Supply remains stable but under pressure, with some companies undergoing maintenance, which provides limited support to the market [2]. - The cost of production is slightly alleviated due to a minor decline in coal and raw salt prices, although the overall cost support remains limited [2]. Futures Market - On April 25, the main soda ash futures contract opened at 1376 yuan/ton and closed at 1365 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 0.29% [3]. - The trading volume increased, indicating a rise in market activity despite the price drop [3]. - Market sentiment is influenced by insufficient policy guidance following important meetings, but supply disruptions are expected to provide some support [3]. Short-term Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term, with pre-holiday stocking boosting market sentiment [5]. - As May approaches, planned maintenance by some companies is anticipated to reduce operational rates, leading to potential supply constraints [5]. - The actual impact of maintenance on supply will be a key focus moving forward [5].