9月16日，玻璃期货主力合约盘面表现偏强，最高上探1249元/吨，创近一个月新高，现涨幅逐步收窄至 3.52%左右。 上周玻璃厂库环比减少146.7万重量箱，分区域看：华北去库最多，华中、华东次之，华南地区小幅累 库。当前整体中游期现商库存仍维持高位。 机构观点 华联期货：上周玻璃无产线点火或冷修，行业开工率环比略升，前期点火产线开始引板，周供应量环比 增加，市场产销略有好转，厂家库存小幅下降。近期玻璃供应呈缓慢回升趋势，下游需求总体偏弱，厂 家库存维持高位，短期供需无明显改善，后市关注旺季需求修复和产能政策。操作上，短线留意1250- 1270区间压力。 建信期货：基本面方面，2025年9月初，国内光伏玻璃市场迎来显著涨价行情，需求端的强劲支撑成为 本次价格上涨的关键驱动力。一方面，市场预期提前释放，下游企业基于对成本上行的预判，为9月需 求释放奠定基础；另一方面，假期来临，为保障假期后生产连续性，组件企业普遍计划在9月末集中备 货，季节性备货需求进一步放大了9月光伏玻璃的市场需求。浮法玻璃来看，供应端压力相比去年呈现 边际缓解态势，成本端又一定的支撑力，但需求端持续疲软，短期内或难有显著突破。新房玻璃需求 ...

浮法玻璃行业产能利用率续增0.3个百分点至79.78%，日熔量达15.96万吨，均为年内新高。以煤制气和 石油焦为燃料的浮法玻璃周均利润均超百元，天然气为燃料的亏损幅度收窄，盈利改善促使企业维持高 开工率。华联期货分析认为："近期玻璃生产利润持续修复，供应呈低位小幅回升，但终端需求尚无明 显起色。"新湖期货则提示："短期宏观政策情绪降温，以及成本端煤价下杀的联动影响，盘面出现较大 回调。" 市场普遍预期，随着情绪回归理性，玻璃市场将重新进入基本面定价格局。新湖期货预计"后续将宽幅 震荡为主，临近交割月存在回归预期，近期整体偏空"。华联期货建议"暂时观望为主"，而瑞达期货则 提出"逢低布局多单，注意操作风险"的操作建议。后续需重点关注供应端产能变动、湖北区域现货市场 情况以及终端订单改善进度，特别是光伏玻璃面临的库存压力可能对整体市场产生持续影响。 南华期货指出，虽然当前玻璃市场供过于求，但随着传统旺季临近，下游加工企业可能提前备货，价格 下跌空间有限，建议观望为主。华泰期货分析称，玻璃企业已开始主动减产，8月计划检修产能占比达 15%，若减产执行到位，供需矛盾有望缓解，但短期仍将维持弱势震荡格局。 玻璃周一夜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1纯碱市场 - 纯碱检修计划衔接力度略不及预期及新产能投放取得进展，产量见底回升；前期基差力度不足导致未能形成持续正反馈，当前期现优势出货，厂家间压力分化 [8][9]。 - 供应重回上行，带动库存压力回升；终端备货较充足，终端利润状况较差，驱动偏弱。但阶段性盘面贴水较大，期现大幅出货后持货减少，结合头部厂家产量负荷波动，短期可转观望 [9]。 - 策略建议：前期空头思路可阶段逢低获利，重新等待入场机会 [9]。 2.2玻璃市场 - 需求氛围弱势及部分区域受低价期现货源压制，低价区厂家降价以促出货。部分厂家据自身情况点火复产 [169]。 - 估值角度进入理想布局区间，但须等待市场情绪好转启动。后续跟踪产线变动情况，观察低价期现货源消化进度及主产区现货量价情绪变化 [169]。 - 策略建议：市场暂缺上行驱动，远月合约待情绪缓和逢低做多思路 [169]。 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量68.51万吨，环比增加2.13万吨；重质产量36.98万吨，环比增加0.98万吨；轻质产量31.53万吨，环比增加1.15万吨 [8]。 - 进口0.1万吨，环比持平；出口4万吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 浮法玻璃日熔量157,275吨，环比减少250吨；光伏玻璃日熔量98,780吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 重碱消费量34.46万吨，环比减少0.04万吨；轻碱表需30.38万吨，环比增加3.01万吨；纯碱表需73.76万吨，环比增加3.86万吨 [8]。 - 碱厂库存162.43万吨，环比减少5.25万吨；社会库存36.80万吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 氨碱法成本1317元，环比持平；氨碱法利润83元，环比增加55元；联碱法成本1123元，环比减少33元；联碱法利润177元，环比增加33元 [8]。 3.1.2月度供需 - 当期纯碱进口0.46万吨，环比增加0.14万吨；出口17.06万吨，环比减少2.37万吨 [16]。 - 纯碱进口依赖度0.11，环比增加0.01 [16]。 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了沙河地区重质纯碱市场价、纯碱期货价格指数、沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、玻璃期货价格指数等期现货价格对照 [24][25][26][27]。 - 展示了沙河重质纯碱01、09、05合约基差，纯碱09 - 01、01 - 05、05 - 09价差，玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差等 [29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39][40][41]。 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱市场价当期值1243元，环比上周下降45元，环比去年下降907元 [45]。 - 展示了轻重碱区域价格表，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区重质纯碱和轻质纯碱价格及环比情况 [49]。 3.1.5供应 - 目前检修/降负荷的厂家有山东海化、安徽德邦等多家企业；计划检修的厂家有丰城盐化、发投碱业等 [83]。 - 国内纯碱开工率当期值78.57%，环比上周下降0.06%；周产量68.51万吨，环比增加2.13万吨 [84]。 - 展示了氨碱工艺、联碱工艺开工率及各区域纯碱开工率 [85][88][90]。 - 展示了国内重质、轻质纯碱周产量及国内纯碱周产量 [92][93]。 - 展示了氨碱法、联碱法成本利润及相关品价格，如合成氨价格指数、河南液氨市场价等 [95][97][99][101][108][110]。 3.1.6需求 - 展示了光伏玻璃在产日熔量、浮法玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、重质纯碱周度需求等数据 [131][133][134][135]。 - 展示了轻质、重质纯碱周度消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格 [137][140]。 3.1.7库存 - 纯碱企业库存当期值162.43万吨，环比上周减少5.25万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存81.83万吨，环比减少1.45万吨；重质纯碱企业库存80.6万吨，环比减少3.80万吨 [145]。 - 展示了各区域纯碱库存情况 [154][155][157][158][159][161]。 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 浮法玻璃日熔量当期值157,275吨，环比减少250吨；周产量110.09万吨，环比减少0.17万吨 [167]。 - 表观消费量110.94万吨，环比减少0.33万吨 [167]。 - 厂库库存338.31万吨，环比减少0.53万吨 [167]。 - 天然气线成本1448元，环比持平；天然气线利润 - 148元，环比减少10元；煤制气线成本953元，环比减少9元；煤制气线利润177元，环比减少1元；石油焦线成本1081元，环比持平；石油焦线利润19元，环比减少10元 [167]。 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、出口量及平板玻璃当月产量同比数据 [174][176][178][180]。 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了沙河地区重质纯碱市场价、纯碱期货价格指数、沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、玻璃期货价格指数等期现货价格对照 [184][185][186][187]。 - 展示了沙河玻璃5mm大板01、09、05合约基差，玻璃09 - 01、05 - 09、01 - 05价差，玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差等 [189][190][192][194][195][196][199][201][202][203]。 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格表，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区5mm小板和大板价格及环比情况 [207]。 - 展示了沙河、华东、华北等地区浮法玻璃(5mm)市场价及沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、京津唐5mm玻璃大板含税价等 [209][210][211][220]。

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the industry conference promotes production - cut and price - support plans. Although short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease and the mid - stream may stop reducing inventory, continuous price increases are difficult. The long - term bearish trend remains, but caution is needed before the positive feedback atmosphere ends. Traders are advised to pay attention to new order transaction prices and the implementation of maintenance and price - support plans, and short - term short - covering and then short - selling at high prices are recommended after the upward sentiment calms down [8][9]. - For the glass market, from a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended, and subsequent attention should be paid to production line changes, the digestion progress of low - price spot and futures sources, and the price - volume sentiment changes of spot in major production areas [173]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: The total weekly production is 75.51 million tons, with heavy - soda production at 41.55 million tons and light - soda production at 33.96 million tons. The import volume is 0.07 million tons, and the export volume is 4.2 million tons. There are production - cut and maintenance plans in the industry, and potential incremental production awaits the full - capacity operation of Jiangsu Debang and the subsequent commissioning of Lianyungang Alkali Plant [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - soda consumption is 34.27 million tons, and the light - soda apparent demand is 30.87 million tons. The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.54 million tons. The market's expectation for terminal demand is weak, but the short - term apparent demand may be boosted by the positive feedback between futures and spot [8]. - **Inventory**: The alkali factory inventory is 169.1 million tons, and the social inventory is 33.85 million tons. With the positive feedback and subsequent production - cut expectations, short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease, while mid - stream inventory may stop falling and start to rise [8]. - **Valuation**: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1327 yuan, and the profit is 83 yuan. The combined - soda process cost is 1170 yuan, and the profit is 140 yuan. The price difference between heavy and light soda in Central China is 40 yuan, and the basis of the market price in Shahe is 20 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The report provides monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 [15]. - **Imports and Exports**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, and the export volume is 19.43 million tons. Compared with the previous month, imports decreased by 0.23 million tons, and exports increased by 0.02 million tons. Compared with the same period last year, imports decreased by 21.23 million tons, and exports increased by 9.45 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Spot - Futures Price Comparison**: It shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - **Soda Ash Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [29][31][32]. - **Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread**: Displays the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [34][35][36]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][42]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy - soda in Shahe is 1312 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan compared with last week and 938 yuan compared with last year [47]. - **Light and Heavy Soda Regional Prices**: The prices of heavy and light soda in different regions such as North China, East China, and Central China are provided, with most prices remaining stable [51]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - up and Shutdown**: Some enterprises are currently under maintenance or reducing load, and some have planned maintenance in May [88]. - **Start - up Rate**: The current domestic soda ash start - up rate is 89.44%, with a weekly production of 75.51 million tons, heavy - soda production of 41.55 million tons, and light - soda production of 33.96 million tons [89]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit trends of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the price trends of related products such as synthetic ammonia, limestone, and caustic soda [100][102][104][106][112][122][126]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Heavy - Soda Demand**: It shows the daily melting volume of photovoltaic and float glass, the daily consumption of heavy - soda, and the weekly demand from 2020 to 2025 [137][139][140][141]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio**: Presents the weekly consumption and production - sales ratio of light and heavy soda from 2020 to 2025 [143]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: Displays the market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass from 2021 to 2025 [146][147]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The current soda ash enterprise inventory is 169.1 million tons, with light - soda enterprise inventory at 85.05 million tons and heavy - soda enterprise inventory at 84.05 million tons [151]. - **Regional Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of soda ash in different regions such as North China, Central China, and East China from 2020 to 2025 [159][160][162]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,175 tons, and the weekly production is 110.02 million tons. There are cold - repair and production - start plans for some production lines [171]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 108.47 million tons. Market sentiment suppresses the apparent demand, but the mid - and downstream purchase appropriately at low prices [171]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 327.37 million tons, and short - term inventory is expected to increase slightly due to demand suppression [171]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke production lines are provided. Low - cost production capacity still has profits, but most production capacity is in the red [171]. 3.9 Glass Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: Displays the monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 [178]. - **Imports and Exports**: Presents the monthly import and export data of float glass from 2020 to 2025 [179][183]. 3.10 Glass Basis and Spread - **Spot - Futures Price Comparison**: Shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [187][188][189][190]. - **Glass Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [192][193][194]. - **Glass Contract Inter - period Spread**: Displays the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [201][202][203][205]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Float Glass 5mm Regional Price**: Provides the price information of 5mm float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China, with some prices showing slight fluctuations [210]. - **Float Glass 5mm Large - Plate Price**: Displays the price trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price, and South China 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price from 2020 to 2025 [225]. 3.12 Glass Supply No relevant content provided for the supply part after "05 Glass Supply".

2025-04-28 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 周度市场综述 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 75.51 | -0.05 | 73.71 | 69.94 | 阿拉善周内产量短时波动，供应整体高位运行；5月检修计划逐步明 | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 41.55 | -0.10 | ...