Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates that the economic outlook remains uncertain, reflecting concerns over inflation and global economic conditions [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The RBA acknowledges ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape, particularly regarding inflationary pressures and their potential impact on monetary policy [1] - The central bank is closely monitoring global economic developments, which could influence domestic economic conditions [1] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Inflation remains a key focus for the RBA, with the bank emphasizing the need to balance inflation control with economic growth [1] - The RBA's stance suggests that any future monetary policy adjustments will be contingent on inflation trends and economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank indicates economic uncertainty but suggests that if the economy develops in line with current forecasts, the policy interest rate will be further lowered during 2025 [1] Group 1 - The economic outlook is described as uncertain, highlighting potential volatility in future economic conditions [1] - The central bank's current assessment implies a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on adapting to economic developments [1] - The forecasted reduction in the policy interest rate signals a potential easing of monetary policy in response to economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that while the labor market may be gradually cooling, the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns about this cooling [1] Group 1 - Powell acknowledges the current uncertainty in the economic outlook remains at a high level, despite some improvements [1] - The labor market conditions, along with reasonable economic growth and gradually declining inflation, lead Powell to prefer waiting for more information before making further decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee members acknowledge a reduction in uncertainty since May, but emphasize that significant uncertainty remains regarding the economic outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Economic Outlook** - In the June statement, the language was adjusted from indicating an increase in uncertainty to recognizing a decrease, although it still remains high [1] - **Trade Agreements** - The adjustment in the statement may reflect a broader sentiment that the Trump administration is seeking trade agreements [1] - **Inflation Data** - Several months of inflation data indicate relatively low price increases throughout the spring [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：国内外经济前景的不确定性较高。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Downward - driven commodities**: Coking coal, glass, methanol [1] - **Equity index**: Sideways [2] - **Treasury bonds**: Range - bound [2] - **Gold and silver**: Sideways to weak [2][4] - **Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel)**: Range - bound [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Sideways to weak [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Downward [6] - **Steel and ore (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore)**: Sideways to weak [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Bearish [8] - **Crude oil**: Sideways to weak [8] - **Methanol**: Downward [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Downward [10] - **Cotton**: Sideways [10] - **Rubber**: Sideways to weak [10] 2. Core Views - **Commodity futures**: Coking coal, glass, and methanol have clear downward drivers. Hold previous short positions in JM2509 for coking coal, FG509 for glass, and MA509 for methanol due to supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Equity index**: The A - share market continues to trade in a narrow range with low volume. While the downside risk is controllable due to policy support, the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market is under pressure. Although the long - term yield trend is downward, the current directional drivers are limited, and the odds are not favorable [2] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are affected by short - term factors and lack upward momentum. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [4] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. Copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to trade in ranges, with supply - demand dynamics and policy factors influencing their trends [4] - **Lithium carbonate**: Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] - **Silicon energy**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices [6] - **Steel and ore**: Traditional demand seasons are ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist, leading to a bearish outlook for steel and ore prices [6] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in downward price trends [8] - **Soda ash and glass**: Soda ash production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Glass demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline [8] - **Crude oil**: With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] - **Methanol**: Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] - **Cotton**: Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] - **Rubber**: Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Coking coal**: Supply is in continuous surplus, and previous short positions in JM2509 should be held [1] - **Glass**: Pessimistic demand expectations, and previous short positions in FG509 should be held [1] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and previous short positions in MA509 should be held [1] 3.2 Equity Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range, low - volume sideways trend. The red - chip defensive and technology - growth styles rotate rapidly, and funds are cautious. The downside risk is controllable, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] 3.3 Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a weak sideways pattern. Although the central bank maintains loose liquidity, market concerns about redemptions are rising, and the bond market is under pressure [2] 3.4 Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by short - term factors such as tariffs and geopolitics. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [2][4] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. The supply of ore is tight, but the demand is cautious, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4] - **Aluminum and alumina**: The macro environment is uncertain. Alumina supply has short - and long - term differences, and prices may fluctuate. Aluminum is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Nickel**: The market is in an oversupply situation. Although the previous short - call option strategy can be continued, new short positions should be avoided due to policy uncertainties [4] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] 3.7 Silicon Energy - Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the furnace - starting situation in the southwest during the wet season [6] 3.8 Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The traditional demand season is ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist. It is recommended to hold short - call options or short the 10 - contract on rebounds [6] - **Hot - rolled coil**: External and internal demand is weak, and cost reduction risks exist. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be held [6] - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and short the 01 - contract [6] 3.9 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking coal**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation and downward price trends [8] - **Coke**: Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel prices are falling, leading to a decline in production willingness and downward price trends [8] 3.10 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda ash**: Production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Short positions in the 09 - contract should be held, and new short positions can be taken on rebounds [8] - **Glass**: Demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short positions in the FG509 contract should be held, and the buy - glass 01 - sell - soda ash 01 arbitrage can be continued [8] 3.11 Crude Oil - With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] 3.12 Methanol - Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] 3.13 Polyolefins - Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] 3.14 Cotton - Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] 3.15 Rubber - Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend. The short - call option strategy can be adjusted and continued [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is prepared to maintain a patient approach to interest rate adjustments due to increasing economic uncertainty, particularly influenced by potential tariff impacts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve officials believe that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased since the March meeting, primarily due to potential tariff impacts [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has intensified, prompting a cautious stance until the net economic effects of government policy changes become clearer [1] - Monetary Policy - The latest meeting minutes indicate that participants agree on the appropriateness of waiting for clearer inflation and economic activity forecasts, given the solid economic growth and labor market conditions [1] - There is a consensus among participants that the current monetary policy is moderately tight, allowing for a period of stability in interest rates [1]

美联储会议纪要：与会者认为对经济前景的不确定性异常升高。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：鉴于极高的不确定性，我们必须判断经济前景是否会实现，而不能带有任何先 入为主的偏见。 ...

日本央行审议委员中村豊明：经济前景的不确定性正在加剧，因此有必要采取更加审慎的货币政策。 ...