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鲍威尔罗列不降息的支撑因素 金十数据6月19日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，虽然美联储"可以看到劳动力市场或许正在缓慢、持续降 温"，但考虑到目前劳动力参与率强劲以及薪资增长良好，这种降温并不值得忧虑。他表示："尽管经济 前景的不确定性已有所下降，但仍处于较高水平。" 只要看到当前这样的劳动力市场状况，并配合较为 合理的经济增长和逐步回落的通胀，鲍威尔称他愿意继续等待更多信息，再决定下一步行动。 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a net inflow of funds, but trading activity decreased, with total A-share trading volume at 4.84 trillion yuan, down from the previous week, and turnover rate at 5.58%, also a decline from the prior week. The total net inflow of funds was 156.42 billion yuan, indicating stronger liquidity [7][8][19] - The domestic liquidity situation showed a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan in open market operations, with DR007 and R007 rates declining, and the spread between R007 and DR007 narrowing. The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds fell by 4 basis points, leading to an expansion of the yield curve spread [10][11][18] Group 2 - The issuance scale of equity funds increased to 13.75 billion yuan, up from the previous week. The top three sectors for fund accumulation were electronics, communications, and computers, while the sectors with the largest reductions were food and beverage, household appliances, and transportation [21][24][28] - The net inflow of margin financing was 7.649 billion yuan, with margin trading accounting for 8.4% of total A-share trading volume. The total number of ETF shares decreased by 750 million, with the largest inflow seen in the broad index of the CSI 300 ETF [28][29][32] Group 3 - In the primary market, there were two IPOs raising 5.007 billion yuan, while no refinancing occurred. The total amount of restricted shares that became tradable was 28.758 billion yuan, with the electronics, biomedicine, and automotive sectors having the highest amounts of unlocked shares [37][41][42] - The report highlighted that industrial capital reduced holdings by 3.18 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, coal, and household appliances being the top sectors for increased holdings, while electronics, biomedicine, and machinery equipment saw the largest reductions [38][39]

端午安康，祝大家在牛市中稳健操作，迈向财富自由！别忘了点赞关注，咱们一起把握市场机会！ 比特币最近的走势有点吓人！关键上升趋势线疑似跌破，币价会否直逼8万美元？市场转机在哪里？美联储又出什么幺蛾子？高盛警告：今年可能不降 息！美的失业率意外飙升，大萧条要来了吗？快来一起看看！ 比特币技术面告急，回调风险加剧 比特币（BTC）最近的走势让人捏把汗。从日线图看，上升趋势线疑似跌破，若无法迅速收复，可能开启两个月来的首次大幅回调。 第一波回调可能跌至9.8万美元的交易密集区，随后考验8.9万至9万的强支撑位。短线来看，10.3万美元附近或有小幅反弹，尚未离场的投资者可借机减 仓，空头则可逢高布局低倍空单。 尽管我们都希望比特币能突破前高，但资金面却是个大问题。自去年12月最后一次降息后，美联储再没有放水，市场资金难以支撑币价持续上涨，需等待 降息带来的流动性改善。 美联储不降息，经济阴云密布 坏消息来了！高盛副董事长卡普兰警告，美联储今年可能不降息，受关税政策拖累，降息计划一再推迟。特朗普急了，昨日凌晨紧急约谈美联储主席鲍威 尔，商讨未来经济政策，但"铁鹰"鲍威尔态度是否软化仍未知。 币圈零和博弈，有人亏钱，必有人 ...

政策不确定性导致企业投资停滞。特朗普政府混乱的关税政策及缩减政府机构的举措，已引发市场对贸 易、通胀、失业及潜在经济衰退的广泛担忧。银行高管透露，众多企业正在暂停扩张计划，包括华尔街 投行主导的利润丰厚的并购交易，这进一步加剧了经济放缓的风险。 此前，对冲基金桥水的创始人达利欧也发出了类似警告。 周二，对冲基金桥水的创始人达利欧在出席活动时，被问及鉴于目前美国的经济状况，美联储是否有降 息的空间。对此，达利欧表示，美联储处境艰难，不应当降息。 据彭博社5月22日报道，摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon在全球中国峰会上接受采访时表示，他无法排除美 国经济陷入滞胀的可能性，认为美国正面临地缘政治、财政赤字和物价压力的重大风险。 这位华尔街顶级银行家直言不讳地说道： 我不同意我们（的经济）正处于最佳状态的说法。 同时，戴蒙强调美联储保持观望态度、暂不降息的策略是正确的。而这一尖锐立场与市场普遍乐观情绪 形成鲜明对比。 在经济基本面看似稳健但政策变动充满不确定性的背景下，美联储官员今年始终维持利率不变。政策制 定者表示，同时应对高通胀与高失业率双重风险的可能性正在上升。这或是滞胀的前兆。 风险提示及免责条款 市场 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 说明： ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，利空金价 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍趋于震荡 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 品种：镍（N ...

财料 美联储不降息引出"川鲍之交"2.0新剧情，特朗普怒怼鲍威尔"啥也不懂的傻瓜"…… 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold entered an adjustment phase in late April after a strong rally, and this adjustment is a response to the continuous sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and have a significant range, and it may span the entire month of May. However, after the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [2][6]. - The Sino - US tariff war has entered a stalemate. Although there is a glimmer of hope for a resolution, it will be a long - term, complex process of re - balancing and re - dividing based on each side's strength. The outcome of the tariff negotiation will have a significant impact on the global financial market and gold prices [5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased after the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data [5][6]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - On April 2, after Trump announced a large - scale global tariff policy, gold initially fell with other risk assets, and the comex2506 contract once fell below $3000 per ounce. Then, driven by risk - aversion sentiment, it rebounded strongly and reached the key level of $3500 per ounce in just two weeks. Subsequently, it has been in an adjustment phase for two weeks. This adjustment is a response to the impact of market expectation changes and Trump's actions on the financial market since December 19, and it is expected to last for several weeks with a significant adjustment range [2]. b) Fundamental Analysis - During the Sino - US tariff war stalemate, the price movement of gold in different trading sessions has changed. In the early and middle of April when gold was rising rapidly, the Asian trading session was more likely to push up the price, while the European and American sessions might see a slight decline. During the adjustment period, the situation is reversed [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce is evaluating high - level tariff negotiations with the US. China has set clear conditions for the negotiation, emphasizing that the US should show sincerity by correcting wrong practices and canceling unilateral tariff increases. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is a long - term and complex process, and it is unlikely to be resolved within a few weeks as the US hopes [4][5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts to bring manufacturing back to the US. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data on Friday, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased [5][6]. - Looking ahead to May, gold is in an adjustment phase after a rapid and sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and may cover the whole month of May. After the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the continuous gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [6]. c) Futures Monthly K - Line - The report provides the monthly K - line charts of Shanghai Futures Gold weighted price and comex Gold weighted price, but no further analysis is given [7].