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Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that while the labor market may be gradually cooling, the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns about this cooling [1] Group 1 - Powell acknowledges the current uncertainty in the economic outlook remains at a high level, despite some improvements [1] - The labor market conditions, along with reasonable economic growth and gradually declining inflation, lead Powell to prefer waiting for more information before making further decisions [1]

Group 1 - Bitcoin's recent price action shows a potential breakdown of the key upward trend line, indicating an increased risk of a significant pullback for the first time in two months [2] - The first wave of correction could see prices drop to the trading zone around $98,000, with strong support levels at $89,000 to $90,000 [4] - The market is facing liquidity issues as the Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates since December, which is crucial for sustaining Bitcoin's price [4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates this year, delaying plans due to tariff policies [5] - If Fed Chair Powell remains ambiguous in the upcoming June 19 meeting, the hopes for short-term rate cuts will diminish, putting pressure on both the cryptocurrency and stock markets [7] - Recent data shows a significant increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S., raising concerns about a potential recession [18] Group 3 - A prominent trader in the cryptocurrency space suffered a loss of over $100 million due to high-leverage trading, contributing to increased market volatility [8] - On-chain data indicates that the ratio of unrealized profits to losses for Bitcoin has reached 12 times, suggesting that investors may start taking profits [11] - The current greed and fear index shows limited upside potential of only 5%-10%, with significant pullback risks, indicating that chasing high prices may not be wise [14] Group 4 - The recent changes in tariff policies have created uncertainty in the market, with potential implications for inflation and the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [17] - The only viable solution to the current economic dilemma is for Trump to significantly reduce tariffs, which would alleviate inflationary pressures and encourage the Fed to cut rates [20]

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns about the possibility of the U.S. economy entering stagflation, citing significant risks from geopolitical issues, fiscal deficits, and price pressures [1] - Dimon disagreed with the notion that the economy is in its best state, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is correct despite prevailing market optimism [1] - The uncertainty in policy has led to stagnation in corporate investment, with many companies, including those in Wall Street's lucrative M&A sector, pausing expansion plans, which heightens the risk of economic slowdown [1] Group 2 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, echoed similar warnings, stating that the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates given the current economic conditions [2] - Dalio highlighted the difficult position of the Federal Reserve, which must balance various factors amid significant uncertainty, although the real economy has not shown substantial issues yet [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates has led to renewed tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, with Trump labeling Powell as an "idiot" who "understands nothing" [1] - This situation is being referred to as "Trump-Powell 2.0," indicating a continuation of the ongoing conflict between the administration and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the implications of the Fed's stance on interest rates for the broader economy, particularly in relation to inflation and economic growth [1] - It suggests that the Fed's current policy may impact market sentiment and investor confidence, potentially leading to volatility in financial markets [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold entered an adjustment phase in late April after a strong rally, and this adjustment is a response to the continuous sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and have a significant range, and it may span the entire month of May. However, after the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [2][6]. - The Sino - US tariff war has entered a stalemate. Although there is a glimmer of hope for a resolution, it will be a long - term, complex process of re - balancing and re - dividing based on each side's strength. The outcome of the tariff negotiation will have a significant impact on the global financial market and gold prices [5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased after the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data [5][6]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - On April 2, after Trump announced a large - scale global tariff policy, gold initially fell with other risk assets, and the comex2506 contract once fell below $3000 per ounce. Then, driven by risk - aversion sentiment, it rebounded strongly and reached the key level of $3500 per ounce in just two weeks. Subsequently, it has been in an adjustment phase for two weeks. This adjustment is a response to the impact of market expectation changes and Trump's actions on the financial market since December 19, and it is expected to last for several weeks with a significant adjustment range [2]. b) Fundamental Analysis - During the Sino - US tariff war stalemate, the price movement of gold in different trading sessions has changed. In the early and middle of April when gold was rising rapidly, the Asian trading session was more likely to push up the price, while the European and American sessions might see a slight decline. During the adjustment period, the situation is reversed [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce is evaluating high - level tariff negotiations with the US. China has set clear conditions for the negotiation, emphasizing that the US should show sincerity by correcting wrong practices and canceling unilateral tariff increases. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is a long - term and complex process, and it is unlikely to be resolved within a few weeks as the US hopes [4][5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts to bring manufacturing back to the US. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data on Friday, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased [5][6]. - Looking ahead to May, gold is in an adjustment phase after a rapid and sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and may cover the whole month of May. After the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the continuous gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [6]. c) Futures Monthly K - Line - The report provides the monthly K - line charts of Shanghai Futures Gold weighted price and comex Gold weighted price, but no further analysis is given [7].