25 basis point rate cut. The Federal Reserve lowering their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a new range of four to four and a quarter percent and signaling two more rate cuts this year. The decision was not unanimous.Newly minted Fed Governor Steven Myron dissented preferring to cut by 50 basis points instead of 25. As for the breakdown for rate projections this year, nine officials seeing three rate cuts in total this year. Six officials seeing one cut, one saw no cuts, and one saw ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global stock markets may continue to rise due to improved economic growth expectations, with bullish sentiment dominating [1] - A net 28% of global fund managers are overweight in stocks, marking the highest level in seven months [1] - There has been a significant improvement in economic growth outlook, with only a net 16% of investors expecting economic weakness [1] Group 2 - The risks of a "recessionary trade war" are diminishing, leading to a predominance of bullish sentiment [1] - Stock market exposure has not reached extreme levels, which is favorable for sustaining upward momentum [1] - Renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is driving gains in technology giants, contributing to the MSCI global index reaching an all-time high [1] Group 3 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in a timely manner to prevent an economic downturn [1]

Group 1 - The French central bank predicts a GDP growth rate of 0.7% for this year, slightly up from the previous forecast of 0.6%, but lowers the growth expectations for the next two years to 0.9% and 1.1% from 1% and 1.2% respectively [1][2] - Political instability in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister François Baroin due to a failed budget vote, is causing uncertainty that is suppressing investment and consumption [2][3] - France's public debt is approximately €3.3 trillion, accounting for 113.9% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to nearly 120% of GDP by 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts and credit rating agencies are increasingly concerned about France's economic outlook, with the central bank noting that the risks to growth expectations are skewed to the downside [3][4] - Fitch downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ due to political chaos and doubts about fiscal consolidation capabilities, which could raise future financing costs for the government [3][4] - Standard & Poor's has placed France's rating outlook on "negative," indicating potential further downgrades if budget deficits do not improve significantly [3][4]

智利《三点钟报》9月10日报道，智利央行发布九月货币政策报告，2025年经济增 长预期区间上限上调至2.25%-2.75%，2025年底通胀预期提高至4%，同时通胀降至3% 目标的时间从原先预测的2026年上半年推迟至2026年第三季度，推迟原因在于核心通 胀高于预期，加之私人支出强劲、工资压力高企、本币汇率低于贬值预期等因素。此 外，内需（从3.2%至4.3%）、投资（从3.7%至5.5%）、消费（从2.6%至3%）和个人消 费（从2.2%至2.7%）等多项指标预期均被上调。其中投资主要受大型项目、有利金融 条件和商业信心推动。 （原标题：智利央行上调2025年经济增长预期） ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's financial market has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.16%, a decrease from the previous prediction of 2.19% made just a week earlier [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The financial market anticipates Brazil's economic growth to be 1.85% in 2026 and 1.88% in 2027 [1] Inflation Expectations - The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which is Brazil's official inflation indicator, remains unchanged at a forecast of 4.85%, ending a streak of 14 consecutive weeks of declining predictions [1]

德国经济与能源部长卡特琳娜·赖歇发表声明说，工业新订单量已连续3个月下降，多家主要经济研究机 构也下调了今年德国经济增长预期。这一情况凸显政策必须聚焦重塑工业竞争力，包括降低能源和劳动 力成本等。 根据德国慕尼黑经济研究所等多家主要经济研究机构日前分别发布的秋季预测报告，受美国关税政策等 因素影响，2025年德国经济仅将增长0.1%至0.2%，低于夏季预测值。 德国联邦统计局在声明中指出，当月包括飞机、船舶、火车等运输设备制造业新订单环比大幅下降 38.6%，是工业新订单整体下降的主要原因。此外，汽车行业新订单环比增长6.5%。 数据还显示，经工作日调整后，德国7月工业新订单同比下降3.4%。 新华社柏林9月5日电（记者车云龙 张毅荣）德国联邦统计局5日公布的数据显示，经季节和工作日调 整后，德国7月工业新订单环比下降2.9%，为连续第3个月下滑。 数据显示，7月德国国内新订单环比下降2.5%，国外新订单下降3.1%，其中来自欧元区和欧元区以外的 新订单环比分别下降3.8%和2.8%。 ...

数据还显示，经工作日调整后，德国7月工业新订单同比下降3.4%。 德国经济与能源部长卡特琳娜·赖歇发表声明说，工业新订单量已连续3个月下降，多家主要经济研究机 构也下调了今年德国经济增长预期。这一情况凸显政策必须聚焦重塑工业竞争力，包括降低能源和劳动 力成本等。 新华财经柏林9月5日电（记者车云龙张毅荣）德国联邦统计局5日公布的数据显示，经季节和工作日调 整后，德国7月工业新订单环比下降2.9%，为连续第3个月下滑。 数据显示，7月德国国内新订单环比下降2.5%，国外新订单下降3.1%，其中来自欧元区和欧元区以外的 新订单环比分别下降3.8%和2.8%。 德国联邦统计局在声明中指出，当月包括飞机、船舶、火车等运输设备制造业新订单环比大幅下降 38.6%，是工业新订单整体下降的主要原因。此外，汽车行业新订单环比增长6.5%。 根据德国慕尼黑经济研究所等多家主要经济研究机构日前分别发布的秋季预测报告，受美国关税政策等 因素影响，2025年德国经济仅将增长0.1%至0.2%，低于夏季预测值。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

报告均表示，美国关税政策持续对德国出口造成冲击，明显加重德国经济下行压力。尽管欧盟与美国就 关税争端达成新协议，但因协议内容含糊、税率大体不变，对德国经济的不利影响难以缓解。 新华财经柏林9月4日电（记者车云龙张毅荣）多家德国主要经济研究机构4日分别发布的秋季预测报告 显示，受美国关税政策等因素影响，2025年德国经济仅将增长0.1%至0.2%，低于夏季预测值。 德国经济在2023年和2024年连续两年萎缩后，今年第一季度环比增长0.3%。但随着4月美国对进口汽车 等商品加征关税的措施生效，二季度德国出口环比下降0.1%，国内生产总值环比下降0.3%。 年中德国政府宣布的设立大规模基础设施基金等财政措施未能带来预期刺激，是此次预期下调的原因之 一。报告普遍认为，德国经济仍然低迷，主要表现为制造业和服务业需求不足、建筑业持续疲软，以及 个人消费复苏缓慢。 （文章来源：新华社） 哈雷经济研究所副所长奥利弗·霍尔特莫勒表示，美国关税虽已被纳入预测模型，但由于相关政策仍存 高度不确定性，未来可能对德国经济构成进一步威胁。如果出口延续第二季度下降趋势，未来几个季度 德国经济复苏前景不容乐观。 报告同时认为，若联邦政府大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple German economic research institutions have revised down their growth forecasts for the German economy in 2025 to only 0.1% to 0.2%, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and insufficient domestic fiscal stimulus measures [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Forecasts - The revised growth forecast for 2025 is lower than previous summer predictions, reflecting ongoing economic stagnation in Germany [1] - The German economy is expected to experience two consecutive years of contraction in 2023 and 2024, with a slight growth of 0.3% in the first quarter of this year [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Economic Performance - The lack of expected stimulation from the large-scale infrastructure fund announced by the German government is a key reason for the downward revision of growth expectations [1] - Continued U.S. tariff policies are significantly impacting German exports, exacerbating the downward pressure on the economy [1] - Despite a new agreement between the EU and the U.S. regarding tariffs, the vague terms and unchanged tax rates are unlikely to alleviate the negative effects on the German economy [1] Group 3: Sectoral Performance - The reports indicate a persistent weakness in manufacturing and services demand, ongoing fatigue in the construction sector, and a slow recovery in personal consumption [1] - If the federal government's large-scale fiscal spending plans are effectively implemented and structural reforms are promoted, there is potential for gradual improvement in the German economy [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q3 down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% due to unexpectedly large expansion in the trade deficit in July [8] - The July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.27% month-on-month and 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with previous estimates and market expectations [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the U.S. goods trade deficit, which expanded by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [6] Economic Indicators - Personal income in July increased by 0.4%, supported by steady growth in employment compensation, owner income, and rental income [6] - Personal consumption expenditures showed strong performance, rising by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly above Goldman Sachs' expectations [6] - The actual personal spending, adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.3%, with notable increases in goods consumption (0.9%) and a slight rise in services spending (0.1%) [6] Trade Data Analysis - The significant increase in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $18.6 billion rise in imports, while exports saw a slight decline of $1 billion [6] - The surge in imports is believed to be a response to businesses stocking up ahead of new tariff policies set to take effect in August [6] - Notable increases in imports were seen in industrial goods and capital goods, which rose by $12.3 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively [6] Inflation and Domestic Demand - Despite the trade data being weaker than expected, core inflation and consumption expenditure data indicate that the U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate expansion [8] - The domestic final sales indicator, which measures domestic demand strength, is expected to continue showing positive growth, reflecting the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy [8]