北京时间1月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定在此前三次会议连续降息后，将联邦基金利 率目标区间维持3.5-3.75%不变。 美联储在会后声明中暗示，在经历此前三次会议连续降息后，并不急 于恢复降息。 一图速览>> 由美国总统特朗普任命的两位美联储理事沃勒和米兰，在会上投下反对票，并支持降息25个基 点。 鲍威尔坚定捍卫美联储独立性 ， 关于下一次降息、美国经济、美国总统， 他还有哪些表态？ 对于未来的货币政策，机构如何解读？ 2023 25 26 25 25 2024 50 (25 25 2025 (25) (25) 25 2026 代表当月暂停加息 有记录来美联储利率走势 2024/09 时隔四年重启摄影 1984/08 111-V 2001/01 5 5 *图中数据为目标利率最高上限 2008/12 2020/03 0.259 0.25% 时事投票 我们并没有试图阐明下次降息的时间或是否在下次会议上降 息的标准。我们想说的是,我们目前处于有利地位,可以逐 次会议地做出决策。 ▶ 坚定捍卫美联储独立性 这(美联储理事库克解职听证会)或许是美联储113年历史上 最重要的法律案件。（美联储）独立性 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, ending a series of three consecutive rate cuts since last September. This decision aligns with market expectations but reveals internal dissent, as two members voted against it, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasizes that the current interest rate is at the upper end of the "neutral zone," indicating neither tightening nor significant easing. He reiterates that decisions will be strictly data-driven, suggesting that if inflation related to tariffs continues to decline, it may indicate a potential for policy relaxation [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen supports a strong dollar policy, denying any intervention in the foreign exchange market to sell dollars and buy yen. She asserts that capital will flow in when policies are appropriate [1] Group 2 - The German government lowers its 2026 economic growth forecast from 1.3% to 1%, highlighting ongoing external pressures on Europe's largest economy due to underwhelming infrastructure investment and high tariffs affecting exports [2] - SpaceX, owned by Musk, plans to launch its initial public offering (IPO) in mid-June, targeting a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion and aiming to raise up to $50 billion, potentially becoming one of the largest tech company listings in history [2] - The Bank of Thailand introduces restrictions on gold trading to address the strengthening of the Thai baht, requiring traders with annual transactions exceeding 10 billion baht to report and setting a daily online trading limit of 50 million baht [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rises by 0.02% to 49,015.6 points, while the S&P 500 index decreases by 0.01% to 6,978.03 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increases by 0.17% to 23,857.45 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increase by 6.46% to $5,411 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rise by 10.06% to $116.62 per ounce [4] Group 4 - The main contract for U.S. oil rises by 1.78% to $63.5 per barrel, while the main contract for Brent oil increases by 1.56% to $67.63 per barrel [5] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield remains unchanged at 3.5964%, the 3-year yield decreases by 0.56 basis points to 3.640%, the 5-year yield increases by 25.90 basis points to 3.828%, the 10-year yield rises by 0.20 basis points to 4.243%, and the 30-year yield decreases by 0.31 basis points to 4.855% [5] Group 5 - The U.S. dollar index increases by 0.63% to 96.35, with the euro declining by 0.70% against the dollar to 1.1953, and the British pound decreasing by 0.28% to 1.3809. The Australian dollar rises by 0.42% to 0.7041, while the dollar strengthens by 0.81% against the yen to 153.4200 [6]

当地时间1月28日，德国经济和能源部在柏林举行年初经济报告发布会。德国经济和能源部长赖歇宣 布，预计2026年德国经济增长率为1.0%。2025年秋季，该部门曾预测2026年德国国内生产总值将增长 1.3%。目前德国经济增长乏力的原因有很多，例如用于基础设施和气候保护的专项基金投入的数十亿 欧元支出，其效果不如预期。此外，德国出口持续疲软，部分原因是美国征收的高额关税。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The AMRO report indicates an upward revision of economic growth forecasts for the ASEAN+3 region, reflecting resilience against external shocks despite global uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - The ASEAN+3 region is expected to achieve a GDP growth rate of 4.3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, both revised upward by 0.2 percentage points from the previous report in October 2025 [1]. - Vietnam is projected to have the highest GDP growth rate among ASEAN+3 economies at 7.6% in 2026, highlighting its increasing role in regional supply chains and the effectiveness of foreign investment in manufacturing, technology, and export services [2]. Inflation Trends - The overall inflation rate in the ASEAN+3 region is anticipated to reach 0.9% in 2025 and slightly increase to 1.2% in 2026, remaining significantly below long-term averages [1]. - Controlled inflation is expected to provide ASEAN+3 economies with policy space to respond flexibly to unexpected financial or trade shocks [1]. Economic Resilience Factors - The report emphasizes the significant recovery capacity of the ASEAN+3 region, effectively overcoming global uncertainties [1]. - Strong technological demand and ample foreign direct investment have played crucial roles in mitigating the negative impacts of trade conflicts [1].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious stance on interest rates due to stronger-than-expected economic resilience in the Eurozone and ongoing inflation concerns, while also being vigilant about rising financial stability risks [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The ECB's latest monetary policy meeting minutes indicate a high level of uncertainty in the current environment, with differing views among committee members regarding inflation risk, suggesting a lack of consensus on the direction of risk [1]. - The ECB has raised its economic growth forecasts, projecting a growth rate of up to 1.2% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027, and maintaining 1.4% in 2028 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Price Trends - The core inflation rate in the Eurozone remains above the 2% target, with food prices increasing by approximately 2.5% and service prices rising significantly by 3.4% [1]. - Overall inflation is expected to average 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028, indicating a high threshold for any further easing of monetary policy [2]. Group 3: Financial Stability Concerns - ECB officials express concerns about high financial stability risks, with warnings about the fragility of economic recovery and potential downward shifts in inflation expectations [2]. - The ECB emphasizes the importance of strong domestic demand for the Eurozone to address external challenges, indicating a policy shift towards boosting internal demand rather than relying on export-driven growth [2].

2026.01.20 本文字数：652，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 |第一财经 葛唯尔 当地时间1月19日，在国际货币基金组织（IMF）《世界经济展望》（WEO）更新报告发布会上，IMF 首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙（Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas）回答第一财经记者提问表示，2025年 中国国内生产总值（GDP）5.0%的增速与IMF在最新报告中的预测一致，较2025年10月IMF的预测上调 0.2个百分点。 古兰沙表示，IMF上调中国经济增长预期主要得到两大因素支撑。"首先，中国在过去一段时间实施的 一系列稳增长政策对经济活动产生了显著的支撑作用，且这些政策效应预计将延续至2026年。其次是贸 易冲击的影响逐渐消退。这也是我们上调2026年增速预期的原因。"古兰沙补充道。 IMF预计，2026年中国经济增速将保持在4.5%，较前值预测上调0.3个百分点。 与此同时，古兰沙表示对中国经济增长结构平衡的持续关注。他表示，从最新的经济数据来看，出口对 经济增长的支撑作用较强，国内需求和私人消费的潜力仍有待进一步释放。目前中国物价水平整体运行 在低位，反映出国内有效需求相对于生产能力仍有潜 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and has also upgraded the 2026 growth expectations [3] Group 2: Government Announcements - The State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences on January 20, focusing on the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference and the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic development [3] - A press conference on January 21 will discuss the achievements in industrial and information technology development by 2025 [3] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The Civil Aviation Administration of China introduced a revised Civil Aviation Law, encouraging the development of general aviation and establishing a supportive infrastructure network [4] Group 4: Company News - Yidian Tianxia will resume trading on January 20, not involving GEO business [7] - Tianjian Technology may face delisting risk warnings [7] - Huichuan Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [7] - Far East Transmission expects a net profit increase of 25.06% to 41.96% in 2025 [7] - Guilin Tourism anticipates a profit of 11 million yuan in 2025, reversing losses [7] - ST Yuanzhi forecasts a net profit increase of 396.77% to 507.16% in 2025 [7] - Runfeng Co. expects a net profit increase of 128.85% to 159.95% in 2025 [8] - Xiangcai Securities anticipates a net profit of 553 million yuan in 2025, a 157% increase [8] - Haoshanghao expects a net profit increase of 115.64% to 175.35% in 2025 [8] - Hunan Yuneng forecasts a net profit increase of 93.75% to 135.87% in 2025 [8] - Libang Instruments expects a net profit increase of 75% to 105% in 2025 [8] - Chengdu Huamei anticipates a net profit increase of 74.35% to 108.73% in 2025 [8] - Jihong Co. expects a net profit increase of 50% to 60% in 2025 [8] - Guotou Securities anticipates a net profit of 3.4 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of over 35% [8] - Dinglong Co. expects a net profit increase of 34.44% to 40.2% in 2025 [8] - Ruimaite anticipates a net profit increase of 22.28% to 51.24% in 2025 [8] - Nanfang Energy expects a profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan in 2025, reversing losses [8] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry anticipates a profit of 125 million to 180 million yuan in 2025, reversing losses [8] - Feiwo Technology expects a profit of 32 million to 45 million yuan in 2025, reversing losses [8] - Yitong Century anticipates a profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan in 2025, reversing losses [8] - A controlling shareholder of Aotai Bio has proposed a share buyback of 100 million to 200 million yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its World Economic Outlook report, raising China's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and also increasing the growth expectations for 2026 [1] Group 1 - The IMF's adjustment reflects a more optimistic view on China's economic recovery [1] - The increase in growth forecasts indicates potential positive trends in China's economic performance [1]

国际货币基金组织（IMF）19日发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，将2025年中国经济增长率上调 0.2个百分点至5%，同时上调2026年中国经济增长预期。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

报告分析称，柬埔寨经济前景仍面临多重风险，包括全球贸易摩擦加剧、主要市场需求疲软、外部金融 环境趋紧，以及区域地缘政治不确定性上升等因素。 报告显示，柬埔寨2024年经济增长率为6%，但在全球贸易环境趋紧、主要经济体增长放缓的背景下， 2025年经济增速预计放缓至4.8%。 世行认为，尽管短期经济增速承压，柬埔寨中期经济基本面仍保持韧性。随着全球贸易逐步调整、区域 供应链重组推进以及投资活动回暖，柬埔寨经济在2027年有望重新回到5%以上的增长轨道，在东盟国 家中维持中等偏上的增长水平。 世行指出，全球关税上调、贸易政策不确定性持续存在，对依赖出口和外资的经济体构成挑战。柬埔寨 经济增长预计于2026年阶段性降温，但中期仍具回升基础，主要得益于国内需求改善、区域贸易逐步修 复以及投资环境持续优化。 世界银行在最新发布的《全球经济展望》报告中指出，受全球贸易放缓及外部不确定性加剧影响，柬埔 寨经济增长前景在短期内面临一定压力。世行预测柬埔寨2026年经济增速为4.3%，较此前预测下调0.2 个百分点；2027年经济增速有望回升至5.1%。 ...