12月11日，美联储如期降息25个基点，将基准利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%，为三年来的最低水 平。这是美联储连续第三次会议降息，但在内部对于应优先担忧通胀还是就业市场存在罕见分歧的情况 下，他们对进一步降息的意愿不强。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后记者会上表示，"下次会加息"不是任何人 的基本假设，就业增长实际或被高估，自4月以来就业增长可能已经略微转负，劳动力市场仍在持续、 逐步降温，可能只是比此前预期的降温幅度略微更温和一些。通胀方面，他表示关税影响明年料逐渐消 退。他说，目前利率所处位置使美联储能够耐心等待，观察经济接下来将如何演变。他表示，短期美债 的相关购买规模在未来几个月可能维持在较高水平，美联储并非严格意义上"担忧"货币市场的紧张状 况，只是这种情况比预期来得稍快一点。 另外，欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，鉴于欧元区经济在面对外部贸易压力时展现出的韧性，欧洲央行下周 公布的新预测可能会上调经济增长预期。拉加德10日在出席英国《金融时报》举办的相关活动时指出， 欧元区对美国关税攻势的承受力强于预期。她强调，欧盟并未对这些措施采取报复行动，欧元汇率保持 稳定，且劳动力市场依然强劲。基于此，继上次预测上 ...

【资讯导读】 ·国际货币基金组织上调2025年中国经济增速预期 ·美联储年内连续第三次降息 ·美联储主席鲍威尔：货币政策无预设路径 ·加拿大央行宣布维持基准利率不变 ·欧盟就2040年温室气体减排90%目标达成协议 【市场资讯】 ·亚洲开发银行10日发布最新展望报告说，考虑到区域内高收入技术型出口经济体的出口稳健等因素， 将亚太地区发展中经济体2025年经济增长预期上调至5.1%，比今年9月预测值提高0.3个百分点。 ·美联储10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75% 之间。这是美联储自今年9月以来连续第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点，也是美联储自2024年9月启动本 轮降息周期以来的第六次降息。美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在当天会后发表声明说，美国经济 活动在温和扩张，但新增就业放缓，失业率在9月升高，通胀依然在一定程度上处于高位，经济前景仍 面临较高不确定性，就业市场下行风险在近几月有所升高。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔表示，货币政策无预设路径，将逐次会议依据数据决策。通胀仍偏高，但非关税驱 动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预计2026年第一季度 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，该行下周发布的新预测可能对经济增长前景持更乐观态度。 拉加德表示，欧元区在面对美国关税攻势时展现出超出预期的韧性。她强调，欧盟未采取报复措施，欧 元汇率未贬值，劳动力市场依然强劲。 "在最近的预测工作中，我们已上调了预期，"她周三表示，"我认为12月可能再次上调。" 政策制定者日益确信，在可预见的未来可以维持借贷成本不变，这在一定程度上得益于经济韧性。第三 季度国内生产总值增长0.3%，高于初步估计值。 立陶宛央行行长Gediminas Simkus周三表示，他认为没有必要进一步降息。这一表态较此前立场有所转 变，表明其对通胀不会大幅低于欧洲央行目标的信心增强。执行理事会成员Isabel Schnabel表示，她乐 见投资者押注央行下次利率行动是加息。 这些言论使投资者不再预期欧洲央行明年会进一步降息。全球范围内也出现类似动向，因市场预期从美 国到澳大利亚的降息周期或将结束，全球债券收益率升至2009年以来的高位。 "考虑到约2%的通胀记录及2%的中期预测，我再次强调我们正处于良好状态，"拉加德表示，并称经济 已"非常接近潜力水平"。 责任编辑：刘明亮 责任编辑：刘明亮 欧洲央行行长拉 ...

阻力方面，上方1.3348(布林带上轨)至1.3400区间构成强阻力带，与前期密集成交区重叠，压制明显； 支撑方面，1.3300关口及1.3260水平为关键支撑，若跌破1.3260可能触发回调至1.3180附近。 短期来看，英镑兑美元走势将围绕英美两国央行政策差异展开，若美联储释放更偏鸽的信号，而英国央 行降息预期维持温和，货币对可能维持高位震荡或扩大上行区间；反之，若英国央行释放明确宽松信 号，英镑上涨动能将显著受限。 中长期而言，两大央行的降息节奏差将成为核心驱动因素，英国经济复苏力度与美国通胀回落速度的相 对变化，将决定英镑兑美元的趋势方向。机构普遍认为，若美联储政策声明偏鸽派，英镑有望获得进一 步支撑，但若无法突破关键阻力区间，仍将维持震荡格局。 12月10日，英镑兑美元实时汇率报1.3296，较前一交易日微跌0.0003，涨跌幅为0.00%。整体呈现窄幅 震荡格局。市场对美联储12月会议降息预期持续升温，CME FedWatch工具显示降息25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%的概率已升至约89%，较一个月前的63%显著提升。宽松预期削弱了美元近期的反弹动 力，推动美元指数滑落至近一个半月低位附近，为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has shown slight appreciation against the US dollar, supported by the OECD's upward revision of the UK's economic growth forecast, while market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England are limiting aggressive bullish sentiment [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The OECD has raised its growth forecast for the UK, predicting that the Bank of England will end its current easing cycle by the second quarter of 2026, which strengthens market confidence in the UK's economic resilience [1] - Recent inflation data from the UK has indicated a decline, intensifying market bets on the Bank of England initiating a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, thereby constraining the upward potential of the pound [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, which has hindered the recent rebound of the US dollar and provided passive support for the pound [1] - The technical analysis indicates a clear rebound trend for the pound against the dollar, with the price currently above short-term moving averages, suggesting some mid-term upward momentum [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - A strong resistance zone has formed at a specific price range, overlapping with previous high trading volume areas, which may suppress bullish momentum unless the price can effectively break through this resistance [2] - Indicators such as MACD show a slowing momentum, while the RSI remains in a neutral to strong zone, indicating that while upward momentum is not fully exhausted, stronger fundamental support is needed for a breakout [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the fluctuations in silver prices and the impact of U.S. Treasury yields on market sentiment [1][2] - Silver prices are currently trading at 13.161 CNY per gram, showing a slight decline of 0.05% from the previous session, with a trading range between 13.111 and 13.221 CNY per gram [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.17%, the highest level since September 26, driven by concerns over global economic growth following a recent earthquake in Japan [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 78.5% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan due to inflationary pressures exacerbated by the earthquake [1] - The U.S. Treasury is set to auction a significant amount of new debt this week, including 39 billion USD in 10-year bonds and 22 billion USD in 30-year bonds, reflecting strong investor demand for fixed-income assets [2] - The two-year and ten-year Treasury yield spread has widened to 58.7 basis points, indicating a mixed outlook on future economic growth [1]

新华财经伊斯坦布尔12月5日电（记者许万虎）国际信用评级机构惠誉近日在最新发布的《全球经济展 望》报告中，将土耳其2025年经济增长预期从此前的3.5%上调至3.8%。 报告指出，惠誉维持对土耳其2026年和2027年经济增速的既有预测不变，预计分别增长3.5%和4.2%。 土耳其统计局数据显示，受此前稳健表现带动，土耳其经济在2025年第三季度同比增长3.7%。今年第 二季度和第一季度的增长率分别为4.9%和2.5%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

墨央行表示，国际形势依然复杂，相关风险持续存在，例如美国经济政策导向的转变，可能会影响其经济扩张速度，并导致对墨西哥的外部需求 减少。此外，全球不同地区各种地缘政治冲突可能升级，对全球经济整体，特别是国际贸易流动产生不利影响。 当地时间11月26日，墨西哥央行宣布，将2025年该国经济增长预期从0.6%下调至0.3%，但2026年的增长预期维持在1.1%不变。 根据最新官方数据，墨西哥2024年经济增长率为1.4%。（总台记者 马天静） ...

Group 1 - The Korea Development Institute (KDI) has raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, driven by improvements in consumption and exports [1] - KDI has also increased the 2026 growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.8%, with private consumption expected to grow by 1.3% due to lower interest rates and government support [1] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a 2.9% increase in exports, despite the pressure from U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - KDI highlights the need for gradual normalization of expansionary fiscal policies, warning that maintaining the current stance could lead to a fiscal deficit exceeding 4% of GDP [1] - The institute suggests reforms in the tax system and fiscal framework to address issues related to low birth rates and an aging population [2] - KDI predicts inflation rates of 2.1% and 2.0% for the current and next year, respectively, indicating that the current monetary policy stance is generally appropriate [3]

Core Points - The European Commission has revised down its growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2026 due to higher-than-expected tariffs imposed by the US on EU goods [1] - The Eurozone's growth is projected to be 1.1% in 2026, significantly lagging behind the US at 2.1% and China at 4.2% [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth for 2023 is now expected to reach 1.3%, up from a previous forecast of 0.9% [1] - The Commission attributes the improved growth outlook for 2023 to stronger private consumption and investment [1] Economic Outlook - The Eurozone is expected to maintain moderate growth in the coming quarters, supported by a resilient labor market and improved purchasing power [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from 1.4% to 1.2% due to new tariff assumptions, with the US tariff rate on most EU goods increased from 10% to 15% [1] - The overall inflation in the Eurozone is projected to slow to 1.9% by 2026, slightly above the previous estimate of 1.7% but still within the European Central Bank's target of 2% [2] Employment and Trade - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to decrease from 6.3% in 2023 to 6.2% in 2026, reflecting a long-term trend of declining labor force participation [2] - The European Commission highlights that the Eurozone's average tariffs are still lower compared to economies like China and India, providing a relative advantage for EU companies [2] - However, the higher US tariffs are expected to negatively impact Eurozone exports in 2026 [2] Country-Specific Insights - Germany's growth forecast for 2023 has been revised from zero to 0.2%, with a projected growth of 1.2% in 2026, bolstered by a significant investment plan totaling €1 trillion [3] - Despite the positive outlook, Germany's economy remains highly dependent on exports, which may be adversely affected by trade tensions [3] - France's growth for 2023 is expected to reach 0.7%, with a 2026 growth forecast of 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% due to domestic economic uncertainties [3]