Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.84% at 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 down 1.56% at 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.15% at 22,078.05 points [5][4]. - Major technology stocks also experienced declines, with the "Big Seven" tech companies index falling by 1.74% [11][10]. Individual Stock Performance - Cisco dropped 3.76%, Boeing fell 3.37%, and Nvidia decreased by 3.15%, leading the decline in the Dow components [8][9]. - Among the "Big Seven" tech stocks, Nvidia fell 3.15%, Amazon dropped 2.49%, and Tesla decreased by 2.21% [13][14]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also saw a general decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26% and the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index down 2.72% [16][15]. - Notable individual stock movements included a nearly 19% drop for Canadian Solar and over 14% for Xinyi Technology [18]. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of new economic data, traders increased their bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although a rate cut in December is still not expected [20][21]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [21][23]. Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Concerns - Federal Reserve officials highlighted three major financial stability risks: high asset valuations, the expansion and complexity of private credit markets, and potential disruptions in the Treasury market due to hedge fund activities [24][23]. - The Fed's assessment indicates that asset valuations across various markets, including stocks and real estate, are high relative to historical benchmarks [24]. - The growth of private credit has doubled over the past five years, raising concerns about its implications for financial stability [25]. - Hedge funds' holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have increased from approximately 4.6% in Q1 2021 to 10.3% in Q1 2023, which could lead to market pressures if these positions are significantly reduced [25][26].

来源：中国基金报 【导读】美股全线收跌，纳指跌近500点；交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，美联储官员提示三大金融 稳定风险隐患 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.84%，报45752.26点；标普500指数跌1.56%，报6538.76点；纳指跌近 500点，跌幅达2.15%，报22078.05点。 道琼斯工业平均(DJI) W 11-20 16:20:01 45752.26 0.00 昨收 46138.77 成交额 -386.51 -0.84% 今开 46567.51 成交量 0 上涨 0 平盘 0 下跌 0 最高价 46856.75 30.1 市盈率 -2.10% 近20日 8.67 最低价 45728.93 市净率 7.54% 今年来 સ્ત્ર B4 日K 五日 [0] 叠加 1.56% 45420.79 -1.56% 09:30 16:00 | W | | 标普500(SPX) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11-20 16:20:01 | | | | | 6538.76 | | 昨收 | 6642.16 ...

美联储理事库克周四在乔治城大学发表讲话时没有明确表态短期利率政策方向，但她指出金融体系正面 临新的潜在风险，包括快速扩张的私人信贷市场、对冲基金在美债市场中的高杠杆交易，以及生成式人 工智能加速被用于机器化交易。库克表示，美国资产价格处于历史高位，她"不排除出现异常规模的价 格下跌"，虽然资产价格下跌本身并不等同于金融不稳定，但她认为"出现大幅回调的可能性正在上 升"。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克当天在另一场活动中也表示反对进一步降息，原因是通胀仍然过高，而金融条 件过度宽松本身就构成风险。她指出，虽然降息有时会被视为"为就业市场投保"，这种保险可能以"更 高的金融稳定风险"为代价。哈马克同样认为银行体系资本充足、家庭部门资产负债表稳健，但她正在 密切关注对冲基金杠杆水平以及私人信贷的增长趋势。 两位官员的担忧与美联储10月会议纪要中披露的观点一致。纪要显示，多名决策者提到金融市场资产估 值偏高，并特别警告，一旦市场对人工智能技术的前景突然改变预期，科技股可能出现无序大幅下跌。 这些担忧反映出当前美联储内部正在围绕两大问题展开激烈辩论，即继续降息是否会让通胀进一步偏离 2%的目标，或劳动力市场的降温是否更需要政策 ...

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 美联储未来的降息路径突生变数。 美国银行在最新发布的报告中预测，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将不会在美联储主席鲍威尔任期内 （2026年5月前）再降息。这是目前华尔街最为"鹰派"的预测之一。 而美国政府的持续"停摆"导致一系列关键经济数据发布延迟，使得美联储和投资者陷入决策"迷雾"。 据最新消息，原定于下周公布的美国10月CPI也"岌岌可危"。据彭博社报道，美国劳工统计局不仅推迟了 该报告的发布，甚至已暂停了线下数据的收集工作。 在这种"数据真空"下，市场焦点被迫转向各种替代数据。美国银行分析称，这些数据描绘了一幅复杂但并 非悲观的画卷：劳动力市场正在逐渐降温，但并未出现急剧恶化的迹象。这种状况为美联储提供了暂停降 息的理由，也构成了美国银行做出这一"鹰派"预测的基础。 据最新消息，因美国政府持续停摆，原定于下周公布的美国10月CPI报告很可能将"缺席"。这将使得美联 储在12月议息会议前缺乏最直接的通胀和消费指引。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为66.9%， ...

这套原定于明年实施的规则规定，银行持有大多数稳定币的资本要求，与持有比特币等风险高得多的加 密货币处于同等惩罚性水平。 金融业一直在游说推动规则修改，以降低银行参与加密货币相关业务的成本——这一诉求旨在反映自 2022年该规则方案首次达成以来行业的发展变化。美国也对规则的合理性提出质疑，该国此前已承诺通 过《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》(Genius Act)对稳定币实施监管。 不过泰登补充称，任何修改都必须经过"非常彻底的流程"，并与委员会所有成员国协商后才能推进，部 分成员国目前已开始实施这套规则。 智通财经APP获悉，巴塞尔银行监管委员会(Basel Committee on Banking Supervision)主席表示，稳定币 的快速发展可能会促使全球政策制定者重新评估针对加密资产的新银行资本标准。 "当前的热门话题是稳定币，"同时担任瑞典央行(Riksbank)行长的埃里克·泰登(Erik Thedéen)周三在华盛 顿的一场会议上表示。 但他指出，2022年政策制定者拟定新的加密资产资本规则时，稳定币"并非关注焦点"，"这正是我们可 能需要展开讨论和评估的原因之一"。 此番表态是泰登在国 ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted in its Global Financial Stability Report that rising economic uncertainty is pushing up valuations in core sovereign bond markets, maintaining high financial stability risks [1] - The increasing importance of non-bank financial institutions, such as market makers, liquidity providers, private credit, real estate, and cryptocurrency intermediaries, may further amplify these vulnerabilities [1] - Despite a seemingly calm global market in recent months, uncertainties related to trade tensions and fiscal issues persist, indicating subtle changes beneath the surface that could weaken the resilience of the financial system if not managed properly [1]

Group 1 - Increasing number of economists expect the Bank of Korea to maintain interest rates this month despite a willingness among board members to cut rates, due to rising financial stability risks from rebounding housing prices in Seoul [1][2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for Korea, Kathleen Oh, anticipates a pause in rate cuts in October, with a potential resumption in November, indicating a shift from previous expectations of immediate action [1][2] - As of the end of September, Seoul's apartment prices have risen for 35 consecutive weeks, presenting challenges for the Bank of Korea, which has kept rates unchanged in recent meetings due to concerns over real estate-related financial stability risks [1] Group 2 - In the recent meeting on August 28, five out of six board members expressed a willingness to cut rates within the next three months, with external stability risks highlighted due to uncertainties in US-Korea trade negotiations [2] - HSBC also expects the Bank of Korea to hold rates steady this month, citing increased financial stability concerns and a hawkish shift in recent communications [2] - The overall economic pressure in Korea is exacerbated by stalled negotiations with the US regarding tariffs and investment commitments, impacting the competitiveness of Korean automotive manufacturers [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's Oh notes that the policy outlook remains unclear for 2026, with heightened sensitivity to housing issues and ongoing export risks [3] - The Bank of Korea's concerns about the real estate market are deemed more significant than uncertainties surrounding exports unless unexpected shocks occur [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada's Governor Tiff Macklem expressed concerns that U.S. trade policies under President Trump may undermine the dollar's status as a global safe asset, leading to a potential decline in the U.S.'s dominance in global capital flows [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - Macklem indicated that the imposition of new tariffs by the U.S. has weakened global confidence, contrary to expectations that tariffs would support the dollar's value [1][2]. - The dollar has depreciated by approximately 10% against other major currencies since the beginning of the year, raising questions about its role as a safe-haven currency [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Stability Risks - Macklem warned that changes in trade patterns, international capital flows, unsustainable U.S. fiscal deficits, and ongoing trade imbalances could increase risks to financial stability [2]. - The shift towards protectionism in the U.S. is disrupting supply chains, raising prices, and potentially leading to a prolonged economic downturn for Canada and the global economy [2]. Group 3: Recommendations for Canada - Macklem urged the Canadian government and businesses to implement measures beyond monetary policy to mitigate the impact of tariffs, emphasizing the need for increased investment, productivity, and market expansion [2]. - Suggested actions include enhancing interprovincial trade, exploring new overseas markets, and reducing regulatory uncertainty to attract investors [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, aimed at addressing evident warning signs in the labor market [3]. - Powell mentioned that more than half of the Fed officials expect at least two more rate cuts this year, indicating possible actions in October and December [5]. Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - Powell highlighted a challenging situation where inflation risks are skewed upward while employment risks are skewed downward, emphasizing the dual risks involved [4]. - Recent data show a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, particularly with the impact of stricter immigration policies reducing labor supply [4][6]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices appear relatively high based on various indicators, although he stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [7][10]. - Following the Fed's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut, U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching new historical highs [8].

Group 1 - The meeting minutes indicate that almost all officials support maintaining interest rates unchanged, with the pro-maintenance faction arguing that the impact of tariff policies on inflation remains unclear, while the opposing faction advocates for preemptive measures against potential economic downturn risks [2] - The July non-farm employment data was significantly revised down to 114,000 from the previous 206,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [2] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman noted that price fluctuations caused by tariffs are one-time events and should not primarily influence monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows structural inflation divergence, with goods price growth slowing to 1.7% while service sector inflation remains high at 4.2% [3] - The job market is deteriorating faster than expected, with the July unemployment rate exceeding 4% and job vacancy rates dropping to 5.3% [3] - The meeting minutes suggest that the Fed may be adjusting its policy framework, with Powell attempting to calculate "inflation excluding tariffs," reflecting confusion in addressing the impacts of new trade policies [3] - The Fed is increasingly focusing on financial stability risks, as indicated by a 2.1% decline in commercial real estate prices and a 15% rise in small business bankruptcy rates, showing the high-interest rate environment's impact on the real economy [3]