Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada's Governor Tiff Macklem expressed concerns that U.S. trade policies under President Trump may undermine the dollar's status as a global safe asset, leading to a potential decline in the U.S.'s dominance in global capital flows [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - Macklem indicated that the imposition of new tariffs by the U.S. has weakened global confidence, contrary to expectations that tariffs would support the dollar's value [1][2]. - The dollar has depreciated by approximately 10% against other major currencies since the beginning of the year, raising questions about its role as a safe-haven currency [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Stability Risks - Macklem warned that changes in trade patterns, international capital flows, unsustainable U.S. fiscal deficits, and ongoing trade imbalances could increase risks to financial stability [2]. - The shift towards protectionism in the U.S. is disrupting supply chains, raising prices, and potentially leading to a prolonged economic downturn for Canada and the global economy [2]. Group 3: Recommendations for Canada - Macklem urged the Canadian government and businesses to implement measures beyond monetary policy to mitigate the impact of tariffs, emphasizing the need for increased investment, productivity, and market expansion [2]. - Suggested actions include enhancing interprovincial trade, exploring new overseas markets, and reducing regulatory uncertainty to attract investors [2].

当地时间周二（9月23日），美联储主席鲍威尔表示，即便在上周降息之后，他仍认为美联储目前的货币政策立场是"适度限制的"，这意味 着如果决策者继续判断近期劳动力市场的疲软比通胀反弹更值得担忧，那么今年还有进一步降息的余地。 鲍威尔周二在罗德岛州普罗维登斯商会的一场活动上发表了演讲，他大体重申了上周利率会议后的记者会上所强调的要点。 在上周的会议上，美联储将基准利率下调至4%–4.25%区间，这是2025年的首次降息。鲍威尔当时称，这一举措是"风险管理式降 息"，旨在应对劳动力市场日益明显的预警信号。 "通胀的近期风险偏向上行，而就业的风险则偏向下行——这是一个充满挑战的局面，"鲍威尔说道。"双向风险意味着不存在无风险的路 径。" 他指出，如果降息过快、幅度过大，可能会让通胀继续徘徊在3%附近，而不是接近美联储2%的目标；反之，如果过久维持紧缩政策，则可 能会不必要地压制劳动力市场。 近期数据及对前期数据的修正表明，美国就业增长明显放缓，美联储官员们正在评估其影响。而美国总统特朗普强化移民执法的政策，也导 致劳动力供给收缩，使评估过程更为复杂。 "劳动力供给和需求双双明显放缓——这是一个不同寻常且充满挑战的发展， ...

Group 1 - The meeting minutes indicate that almost all officials support maintaining interest rates unchanged, with the pro-maintenance faction arguing that the impact of tariff policies on inflation remains unclear, while the opposing faction advocates for preemptive measures against potential economic downturn risks [2] - The July non-farm employment data was significantly revised down to 114,000 from the previous 206,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [2] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman noted that price fluctuations caused by tariffs are one-time events and should not primarily influence monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows structural inflation divergence, with goods price growth slowing to 1.7% while service sector inflation remains high at 4.2% [3] - The job market is deteriorating faster than expected, with the July unemployment rate exceeding 4% and job vacancy rates dropping to 5.3% [3] - The meeting minutes suggest that the Fed may be adjusting its policy framework, with Powell attempting to calculate "inflation excluding tariffs," reflecting confusion in addressing the impacts of new trade policies [3] - The Fed is increasingly focusing on financial stability risks, as indicated by a 2.1% decline in commercial real estate prices and a 15% rise in small business bankruptcy rates, showing the high-interest rate environment's impact on the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea's Governor Lee Chang-yong indicated that while the South Korean economy showed signs of recovery in Q2, it still faces significant uncertainty due to the current trade environment [1] Economic Performance - The South Korean economy rebounded in the second quarter, supported by additional budget measures [1] - Economic momentum is expected to continue in the second half of the year due to this fiscal support [1] Financial Stability Risks - Rising overdue repayment rates among small and medium-sized enterprises and local developers are highlighting financial stability risks [1] - Despite government measures to cap mortgage lending, housing debt growth has slowed, yet property prices in certain areas of Seoul remain high [1] Trade Risks - Ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States pose a high risk to the economic outlook [1]

Group 1 - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, emphasized the importance of closely monitoring financial stability risks [1] - Multilateral institutions play a crucial role in effective policy-making [1]

Market Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $32.2 billion in June, reaching $3,317.4 billion, a rise of 0.98% compared to the end of May [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that many trade partners have changed their negotiation stance, with multiple trade agreements expected to be announced this week [1] - President Trump announced tariff threats against 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% for Japan and South Korea to 40% for Laos and Myanmar, effective August 1 [1] - The European Union is seeking a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to secure a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline [1] - The European Central Bank's governing council urged macroprudential regulators to maintain the resilience of the banking system, citing increased financial stability risks in the Eurozone due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1] Economic Indicators - Moody's maintained Israel's long-term local and foreign currency rating at Baa1, noting that direct military conflict with Iran would further strain public finances [2] - The Eurozone investor confidence index reached 4.5 in July, the highest since February 2022, while retail sales in May grew by 1.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [2] - Germany's industrial output adjusted for May showed a year-on-year increase of 1.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [3] - The UK Halifax house price index remained flat month-on-month but increased by 2.5% year-on-year [4] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.94% to 44,406.36 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.79% to 6,229.98 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.92% to 20,412.52 points [5] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.10% to $3,346.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce [6] - U.S. oil futures increased by 1.37% to $67.92 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 1.84% to $69.56 per barrel [7] - U.S. Treasury yields saw increases across various maturities, with the 2-year yield up by 1.04 basis points to 3.890% and the 30-year yield up by 5.59 basis points to 4.914% [7] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.58% to 97.55, with various currency pairs showing mixed results against the dollar [7]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggested the possibility of interest rate cuts in July but did not formally endorse the idea [1] - European Central Bank President Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a "critical year" for the status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that UK interest rates are in a "downward channel," but the motivation for past rate cuts may be limited due to low household debt [2] - Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong mentioned that South Korea's inflation rate is well stabilized, but the central bank is closely monitoring rising financial stability risks when deciding on the timing and pace of rate cuts [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo noted that Japan's interest rates are currently below neutral levels, but he cautioned against using theoretical rates as a guideline in "cloudy" circumstances [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, indicated that the central bank will closely monitor financial stability risks when deciding on further interest rate cuts, while continuing its easing cycle [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is currently in a monetary easing cycle [1] - Financial stability risks will be a key consideration in future interest rate decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, emphasized that the decision on whether to further lower interest rates will be closely monitored in relation to financial stability risks [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is currently assessing the potential need for additional interest rate cuts [1] - Financial stability risks are a primary concern influencing the decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) warns that inflation in the U.S. may resurface amid global economic turmoil caused by President Trump's trade policies, presenting significant challenges for the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The BIS report highlights the current economic uncertainty, which has reached levels typically associated with crises, primarily due to increased import tariffs imposed by the White House [2][3]. - The growth outlook has weakened, with heightened risks to consumer prices, public finances, and financial system stability [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Risks - The report emphasizes inflation risks, particularly how trade disruptions could impact economies already facing pressures from aging populations and labor shortages [3][4]. - There is a concern that consumer sensitivity to price changes has increased post-pandemic, which could pose new challenges to price stability [3][4]. Group 3: Debt and Financial Stability - The report notes unprecedented debt accumulation in some countries, with interest payments for OECD member countries reaching 4% of GDP last year and expected to rise [3][4]. - Inflation and financial stability risks often stem from pressures in sovereign bond markets, which could exacerbate refinancing challenges and disrupt inflation expectations [3][4]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The BIS suggests a series of policy measures to promote growth and productivity, including labor market reforms, reducing bureaucracy, eliminating trade barriers, and increasing public investment [5]. - The report advises central banks to carefully balance growth and inflation risks, noting that the era of consumers easily absorbing price shocks appears to be over [5].