Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.334%, 4.737%, 3.447% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.033 (Italy) to 0.041 (UK), weekly changes from - 0.004 (Japan) to 0.173 (UK), monthly changes from - 0.126 (Switzerland) to 0.155 (France), and annual changes from - 0.274 (Japan) to 0.760 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.740%, 3.959%, 1.956% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.024 (Australia) to 0.070 (US), weekly changes from - 0.200 (US) to 0.186 (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.703 (Italy) to 0.553 (Japan), and annual changes showed various trends [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: On August 18, 2025, the US dollar - to - emerging - economy currency exchange rates such as South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. had different values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.69% (Russian ruble) to 0.65% (South African rand), weekly changes from - 2.35% (South African rand) to 0.38% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 8.22% (Thai baht) to 0.77% (South Korean won), and annual changes also varied [2]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 18, 2025, major global stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had different closing values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.50% (Mexican index) to 0.21% (Nasdaq), weekly changes from - 0.18% (UK index) to 8.70% (Spanish index), monthly changes from 8.78% (Mexican index) to 44.46% (Spanish index), and annual changes also showed different trends [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes in credit bond indices ranged from - 0.08% to 0.08%, weekly changes from - 0.06% to 0.56%, monthly changes from - 0.13% to 2.43%, and annual changes from 4.84% to 15.88% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3728.03, 4239.41, 2838.87, 2606.20, and 6668.17 respectively, with daily changes of 0.85%, 0.88%, 0.21%, 2.84%, and 1.52% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.54, 11.56, 31.94, 27.34, and 20.08 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.08, 0.04, 0.37, 0.00, and - 0.04 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.68 and 2.22 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.04 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were 78.73, - 179.13, N/A, 216.70, and 110.91 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 306.54, - 333.88, N/A, 26.76, and 51.22 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 27641.63, 6353.66, 1621.58, 5485.68, and 8295.86 respectively, with环比 changes of 5195.51, 1166.79, 199.53, 1082.87, and 1773.47 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 1.61, 9.53, and - 60.17 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.04%, 0.34%, and - 0.90% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.015, 105.455, 107.865, and 105.380 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5037%, 1.5030%, and 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US stock market, highlighting the impact of employment data and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a shift from "recession trading" to "rate cut trading" [5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - In early August, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.60%, while by August 4, it had risen by 1.47%, indicating a significant market reversal [6]. - The Nasdaq index experienced a drop of 2.24% on August 1, followed by a recovery of 1.95% by August 4 [6]. - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 25.5 basis points initially, then only by 2.7 basis points, reflecting changing investor sentiment [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The article explains the concepts of "rate cut trading" and "recession trading," noting that they are responses to economic data but in opposite directions [7][9]. - Rate cut trading occurs when the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, which generally supports risk assets, while recession trading happens during economic downturns, negatively impacting risk assets [10]. Group 3: Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The article reviews three historical rate cut cycles since 2000, noting that each was initiated during economic difficulties [14][16]. - The first cycle (2001-2003) saw a cumulative rate cut of 550 basis points, with the S&P 500 dropping 26.19% during the rate cut period [21][22]. - The second cycle (2007-2008) involved a 500 basis point cut, with the S&P 500 declining 38.72% during the rate cut period [26]. - The third cycle (2019-2020) was different as it began without a significant recession, but the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to further cuts [27][29]. Group 4: Current Economic Indicators - Recent employment data showed a significant downward revision, with July's non-farm payrolls at 73,000, well below expectations [39]. - The downward revision reflects a cooling job market, potentially influenced by tariff policies affecting hiring [40][41]. - The article suggests that the current economic environment may not indicate a severe recession, which could mitigate risks for equity assets [45][47]. Group 5: Asset Performance Expectations - The article outlines expected asset performance during the current and past rate cut cycles, noting that equities typically decline during rapid rate cuts due to underlying economic challenges [33]. - Fixed income assets like US Treasuries generally perform well during rate cuts, while gold tends to rise due to its safe-haven status [34][35]. - The current environment suggests that while equities may face some pressure, the absence of a significant global crisis could provide some support [47].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：中美日内瓦谈判实现关税互降，金价回落 美股三大股指齐涨，黄金价格出现回落。 当周，纳指上涨7.2%，日经225上涨0.7%；10Y美债收益率上行 6bp至4.43%；美元指数上涨0.6%至100.98，离岸人民币降至7.2098；WTI原油上涨2.4%至62.5美元/桶， COMEX黄金下跌4.0%至3191.8美元/盎司。 中美日内瓦谈判达成协议，双方实现关税互降。 5月12日，中美达成协议后，美国对华关税降至42%，中 国对美国关税降至27%。美国整体平均关税税率由27%降至16%。新版关税或仍可能使美国GDP下跌0.65 个点，通胀抬升1.7个点。未来可关注芬太尼等局部协议的可能性。 4月美国CPI弱于市场预期，但零售略强于预期。 美国4月CPI同比2.3%，市场预期2.4%，商品通胀将持续 反映关税影响，服务通胀趋势仍为放缓；美国4月零售环比0.1%，略强于市场预期，但剔除汽车、汽油后 的零售口径表现较弱，或前期美国居民"抢购"商品动力有所减弱。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告 ...

Group 1 - BRICS countries called for a joint resistance against unilateralism and trade protectionism during a special meeting, with China criticizing the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy as harmful to the rights of nations and expressing willingness to cooperate with BRICS members to address the impact of US measures on global trade order [1] - The US House of Representatives' fundraising committee passed a multi-trillion dollar tax cut proposal from the Trump administration, with negotiations on the bill's details ongoing, aiming for a vote in the House by the end of the month [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted that tariffs and uncertainty could suppress economic growth and raise inflation, but monetary policy is ready to adjust as needed, emphasizing the increased policy uncertainty and unclear impact of tariffs on prices [1] Group 2 - European Central Bank regulators required some Eurozone banks to assess scenarios of dollar demand pressure, simulating operations without reliance on the Federal Reserve for dollar supply, reflecting concerns over the uncertainty of dollar supply under the Trump administration [2] - Recent discussions between US and South Korean Treasury officials on exchange rate policies sparked market speculation about Trump potentially adopting a "trade for exchange rate" strategy to induce dollar depreciation; however, insiders revealed that the US has not made exchange rate commitments a condition for tariff reductions in global trade negotiations [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.21% to 42,051.06 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.1% to 5,892.58 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.72% to 19,146.81 points [3] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 2.07% to $3,180.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell by 2.15% to $32.39 per ounce [3] - The main contract for US oil decreased by 1.23% to $62.89 per barrel, and the main contract for Brent crude oil also fell by 1.23% to $65.81 per barrel [3] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 4.65 basis points to 4.042%, the 5-year yield increased by 6.73 basis points to 4.162%, the 10-year yield went up by 6.93 basis points to 4.534%, and the 30-year yield climbed by 6.57 basis points to 4.971% [3] - The US dollar index increased by 0.10% to 101.08, with the euro down by 0.09% against the dollar at 1.1175, the British pound down by 0.32% at 1.3262, and the Australian dollar down by 0.64% at 0.6429 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collective appreciation of Asian currencies during the May Day holiday, primarily driven by the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which rose by 6.8% [2][8]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is attributed to exporters selling US dollars and insurance companies' foreign exchange hedging operations, which may have intensified the currency's rise [11][12]. - The article suggests that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may not be an isolated case, as a weakening US dollar could lead to a repatriation of foreign assets, further driving local currency appreciation [11][12]. Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, global asset performance leaned towards a "risk-on" sentiment, with major stock markets experiencing gains, particularly the Nasdaq index, which rose by 3% [4][18]. - The US non-farm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, indicating a robust labor market and alleviating recession concerns [5][29]. - The US GDP for Q1 turned negative for the first time since Q3 2022, recording a -0.3% growth rate, primarily due to a significant decline in net exports [5][35]. Group 3 - The Bank of Japan decided to pause interest rate hikes, maintaining the policy rate at 0.5%, citing uncertainties related to tariff policies as a key factor [5][36]. - The OPEC+ meeting on May 3 agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is three times the original planned increase, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [6][41]. - Warren Buffett announced his retirement at the end of the year during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, emphasizing the importance of not using trade as a weapon and expressing optimism about the US economy [7][42].

文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期在美国关税政策的影响下，商品整体呈现偏弱态势，短期市场受困于捉摸不定的 美国政策，以及不明朗的经济前景。2025与1984年前后，美国经济与政策的存在共 性，我们复盘20世纪80年代的大宗商品走势，寻找未来商品行情演绎的方向。 当前美国与1984年的美国，在 经济环境、政府压力、汇率、政策 方面存在四大共 性，商品长期走势存在趋同的可能。当然， 历史并不会简单重复，在阶段性的行情表 现中，或存在走势的分化 。 01 商品价格周期性：1977、1984与2025 工业金属具有较高的价格弹性，且对经济、政策的变化极为敏感。为方便复盘，我们选 取CRB现货指数作为商品价格的代表，选取道琼斯工业指数作为美股的代表，并采用月 度均值，忽略较为短期的波动。可以发现在70年代，CRB金属的走势与2018年至今十分 相似，先从低位大幅上行，在高位明显回落之后，到达比上涨前更高的价格中枢并趋势 上行；从美股的表现来看，两个阶段的趋势性变化也有相似之处。 我们也可以找到80年代初与近五年市场走势的相似性。如果单纯地刻舟求剑，会认为近 年的价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic and policy environment in the U.S. and that of 1984, suggesting that commodity prices may follow a similar trajectory due to shared characteristics in economic conditions, government pressures, exchange rates, and policy measures [1][5][20]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Industrial metals exhibit high price elasticity and are sensitive to economic and policy changes, with the CRB spot index serving as a representative for commodity prices [2]. - The price movements of CRB metals from the 1970s show similarities to recent trends, indicating a potential long-term upward price center, although current conditions are more comparable to 1984 [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that price increases typically last 20-30 months, while declines are more rapid, lasting 12-18 months [3]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Similarities - Current economic conditions mirror those of the early 1980s, characterized by recession, fiscal expansion, and high inflation, leading to a cycle of declining interest rates and inflation [5][11]. - The U.S. faces similar pressures as in the 1980s, including high trade deficits and increasing fiscal deficits [6][12]. - The exchange rate environment is akin to that of the early 1980s, with a strong dollar exacerbating trade deficits, prompting government efforts to weaken the dollar [6][16]. - Policy measures from the current administration reflect those of the Reagan era, including tax cuts, promoting oil production, and reducing government spending to address fiscal deficits [20]. Group 3: Future Commodity Outlook - Based on historical trends from 1984 to 1986, a downward trend in commodity prices is anticipated, influenced by the Plaza Accord and the resulting currency dynamics [21][23]. - The initial pricing of commodities may reflect a contraction in global trade, with future expectations potentially correcting if certain countries are less affected by tariffs [23]. - The unclear economic outlook in the U.S. will depend on the duration of government policies, with potential short-term price spikes driven by policy stimuli, but long-term price levels will be determined by demand fundamentals [23].