投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 对于股指来说,预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化,待 新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。同时,中央汇金的托底功能为指数提 供了缓冲,下行风险预计可控。短期可重点关注海外流动性变化信号,以 及国内政策会否提前发力。 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H | IF升贴水 | 4.22% | 4.44% | 2.97% | 3.41% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 3.05% | 2.09% | 0.98% | 1.11% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 8.79% | 9.16% | 9.26% | 10.43% | | 情 况 | IM升贴水 | 12.49% | 12.18% | 11.89% | 12.18% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水）。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人 ...

11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。至此，LPR两个品种报价已连续6个月保持不 变。 多位受访的业内人士指出，本月LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。展望未来，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有 一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。市场对未来大幅度降准降息的预期有所减弱。下一阶段，货 币政策或将更加注重精准、协同和均衡。 缺乏下调动力 LPR报价继续"按兵不动" LPR报价持续"按兵不动"，业内人士指出，这符合市场预期。从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价基础的7 天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR报价较难下降。 东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青指出，尽管近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主 要中长端市场利率稳中有降，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有下行，但在商业银行净息差处于历史 最低点的背景下，当前报价行也缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 "6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快 发展等推动。"王青指出， ...

东方金诚首席分析师王青表示，在10月两个期限品种LPR报价分别大幅下降25个基点后，11月LPR报价 保持不变，符合市场预期。一方面，作为LPR报价的定价基础，9月降息之后政策利率（央行7天期逆回 购利率）保持稳定，已在很大程度上预示11月LPR报价会保持不变。另一方面，10月LPR报价下调幅度 较大，加之银行净息差仍面临一定下行压力，报价行也缺乏进一步下调LPR报价加点的动力。 高盛预计，中国将在2026年第一季降准降息，较先前的预测有所推迟。并将"双降"（即政策利率下调10 个基点，存款准备金率下调50个基点）的预测时间，从2025年第四季度推迟到2026年第一季度。同时， 将原为2026年第二季度降息10个基点的预期推迟到第三季度。 展望未来，王青指出，年底前经济运行有望延续回升态势，政策利率将保持稳定，LPR报价也将继续保 持不变。着眼于促进房地产市场止跌回稳、提振经济增长动能、推动物价水平温和回升，以及有效应对 可能出现的外部贸易环境变化，2025年央行将坚持支持性货币政策立场，而且会保持较高灵活性，相机 抉择，降息降准都有空间。 期货日报讯（记者 肖佳煊）11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 中国11月5年期以上LPR为3.5%，上月为3.5%。1年期LPR为3%，上月为3%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The LPR quotes remained stable in October 2025. With the gradual alleviation of adverse factors from trade frictions, stock index futures are expected to return to an upward trend. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited due to policy support and abundant macro - liquidity. The strategy is to choose the right time to go long on the stock index [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Interest Rates and Bonds - The closing price of DROO1 was 1.32, up 0.08bp; DR007 was 1.43, down 0.60bp; GC001 was 1.45, down 4.00bp; GC007 was 1.51, up 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M was 1.59, up 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year was 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond was 1.48, down 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury bond was 1.59, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond was 1.84, up 0.95bp; 10 - year US treasury bond was 3.98, up 2.70bp [3]. - The central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. 236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. This week, 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 253.8 billion, 91 billion, 43.5 billion, 236 billion, and 164.8 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [3][4]. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4606, up 0.3%; IF current - month contract was 4594, up 0.4%; SSE 50 was 3027, up 0.56%; IH current - month contract was 3025, up 0.7%; CSI 500 was 7143, up 0.2%; IC current - month contract was 7091, up 0.4%; CSI 1000 was 7308, down 0.06%; IM current - month contract was 7249, up 0.2% [5]. - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. The trading volume of IF was 128,274, up 32.3%; open interest was 264,665, up 6.2%. The trading volume of IH was 60,316, up 28.1%; open interest was 94,029, up 6.3%. The trading volume of IC was 145,145, up 32.9%; open interest was 254,337, up 7.6%. The trading volume of IM was 260,447, up 42.8%; open interest was 375,481, up 99% [5]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.6439 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 23.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with coal, energy metals, culture and media, shipping ports, chemical fiber, and diversified finance sectors leading the gains, while construction machinery, mining, non - metallic materials, and biological products sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.48%, 3.55%, 2.81%, and 2.97% respectively. The basis rates of IH current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.96%, 0.66%, 0.17%, and 0.33% respectively. The basis rates of IC current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.08%, 9.23%, 9.20%, and 9.47% respectively. The basis rates of IM current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.21%, 11.31%, 11.51%, and 11.70% respectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of interest rate cuts among small banks in China indicates a shift towards lower deposit rates, with expectations of further reductions by the central bank to alleviate net interest margin pressures [1][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - Multiple small banks have announced reductions in deposit rates, with changes primarily affecting fixed-term deposits, showing declines between 15 to 55 basis points, and some banks reducing rates by as much as 80 basis points [3][4]. - For instance, Zhejiang Pingyang Pudong Village Bank adjusted its fixed-term deposit rates across various terms, with three-year deposits dropping by 80 basis points [3]. - Jiangsu Sushang Bank's three-year deposit rate is currently at 2.2%, while two-year rates are at 2.1%, indicating a competitive environment for attracting deposits [1][4]. Group 2: Rate Inversion Phenomenon - The occurrence of "inverted" deposit rates, where longer-term deposits yield lower rates than shorter-term ones, has been noted, such as Shanghai Huari Bank's three-year rate being higher than its five-year rate [4][5]. - This inversion is attributed to market expectations of future rate declines and banks' strategies to attract short-term deposits to match their lending profiles [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the central bank may implement another round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the year, which could lead to further declines in deposit rates [6][7]. - The current economic environment, including external monetary policy trends and domestic fiscal measures, suggests that there is room for further adjustments in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Market Data Overview - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.26 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43 with a 1.06 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.49 with a 39.00 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.50 bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59 with a 0.60 bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year国债 at 1.48 with a 0.50 bp increase, 5 - year国债 at 1.58 with a 0.25 bp increase, 10 - year国债 at 1.83 with a 0.50 bp decrease, and 10 - year美债 at 3.97 with a 1.40 bp decrease [3] - The central bank conducted 1382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 435 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 947 billion yuan [3] 2. LPR and Reverse Repurchase Maturing - In October 2025, the 1 - year LPR remained at 3.0% and the 5 - year above LPR at 3.5% [4] - This week, 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2538 billion, 910 billion, 435 billion, 2360 billion, and 1648 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] 3. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 fell 0.33% to 4592.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.09% to 3010.1, the CSI 500 fell 0.8% to 7128.5, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.43% to 7312.2 [5] - Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers. Sectors with top gains included mining, wind power equipment, real estate services, construction machinery, and real estate development, while sectors with top losses included precious metals, jewelry, shipbuilding, coal, and gas [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was only 16679 billion yuan, a decrease of 2060 billion yuan from the previous day [5] 4. Market Outlook - The stock index continued to fluctuate yesterday, and the market trading volume further shrank to around 1.67 trillion yuan [6] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee was held in Beijing from October 20 - 23, studying and formulating suggestions for the "15th Five - Year Plan." Specific sectors are expected to be boosted by policies [6] - US President Trump said that China and the US will reach an agreement on trade issues at the APEC Summit next week, but the two heads of state may not meet [6] - As the negative factors of trade friction gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Before November 1 when the 100% US tariff takes effect, the stock index is expected to fluctuate [6] 5. Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 4.92%, 4.00%, 2.96%, and 3.06% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates were 2.63%, 0.94%, 0.40%, and 0.29% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates were 10.83%, 10.32%, 9.60%, and 9.50% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates were 12.48%, 12.82%, 12.23%, and 11.98% respectively [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 21, 2025, the LPR quote remained flat, and the Q3 economic data met expectations with a marginal weakening trend. The bond market was mainly suppressed by the stock market's recovery, and most treasury bond futures closed lower. The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with larger increases in the medium - to long - term. The funds were stable with a marginal convergence. The 10 - year bond market entered a window period after the negative factors were cleared, but lacked a trigger for a counter - attack due to the difficulty of short - term monetary easing and the disturbance of the stock - bond seesaw effect [8][9][10][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The LPR quote remained flat, Q3 economic data met expectations and showed a marginal weakening trend. The bond market was mainly suppressed by the stock market's recovery, and most treasury bond futures closed lower [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with the medium - to long - term yields rising by about 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7675%, up 2.25bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The funds were stable with a marginal convergence. There were 253.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank injected 189 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index was stable, short - term fund rates fluctuated within a narrow range, the 7 - day rate rose 2.47bp to 1.4332%, and the medium - to long - term funds were stable [10] - **Conclusion**: In October, the bond market entered a window period after the negative factors were cleared, but lacked a counter - attack trigger due to the difficulty of short - term monetary easing. Although the policy orientation of loose money and loose finance remained unchanged, the bond market lacked direct positive stimuli and was disturbed by the stock - bond seesaw effect, so investors needed to wait patiently for a counter - attack opportunity [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals, and the Trump administration was quietly relaxing multiple tariff policies [13] - Multiple experts expected the LPR quotes for both tenors in October to remain flat. Analysts expected a downward adjustment space for subsequent policy rates and LPR quotes. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said that China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference was scheduled for October 27, and relevant leaders would attend and make speeches [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presented data on treasury bond futures trading on October 20, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. It also mentioned the inter - maturity spread and inter - variety spread of the main treasury bond futures contracts, as well as the trend of the main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report showed the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report presented the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the new LPR rates remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations [1] - The stability in LPR rates is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and rising financing costs for commercial banks, which limits their motivation to lower LPR quotes [1][2] - The recent external volatility and the need for economic stability may lead to a potential reduction in LPR rates by the end of the year, as the central bank may implement new interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - Economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown a decline due to multiple factors including extreme weather and real estate market adjustments [2] - The acceleration in export growth is influenced by trade transfer effects and changes in the previous year's base, alongside supportive fiscal policies and earlier monetary easing [2] - The central bank's potential interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate internal financing demand, which is crucial for promoting consumption and investment in response to external demand slowdowns [2]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for October remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3.5% for the 5-year, aligning with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and rising financing costs for commercial banks[2] - Recent macroeconomic data shows a decline in consumption, investment, and industrial production due to multiple factors, yet export growth has accelerated[2] Group 2: Future Outlook and Policy Implications - Increased external volatility and the need for stronger growth and employment measures suggest potential LPR rate cuts before year-end[3] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and local government debt limits indicates a push for effective investment and growth[3] - A potential reduction in LPR rates could stimulate loan demand and counteract external demand slowdowns, especially with low current price levels[4] - Further measures to stabilize the real estate market may include targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to lower mortgage rates and boost housing demand[4]