东方金诚宏观研究团队认为，2025年6月以来LPR报价一直"按兵不动"，背后的根本原因是受出口持续 偏强、以高技术制造业为代表的新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，2025年宏观经济顶住外部经贸波动压 力及国内房地产市场调整等影响，顺利完成全年经济增长目标。2026年1月，央行先行推出一揽子结构 性货币政策，强化对科技创新、小微企业等国民经济重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度，这也意味着短期 内货币政策处于观察期，政策利率和LPR报价有望保持稳定。 本报讯（记者 潘福达）昨天，最新贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价出炉，5年期和1年期利率均连续9个 月维持不变，5年期以上LPR维持3.5%，1年期LPR维持3%。 2月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。2月以来政策利率（央行7天期逆回购利率）保 持稳定，意味着LPR报价的定价基础没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示当月LPR报价会保持不动。最 新数据显示，2025年四季度末商业银行净息差持续处于1.42%历史最低位，当前报价行缺乏主动下调 LPR报价加点的动力。 ...

北京大学博雅特聘教授田轩认为,LPR保持不变的原因有三个方面：第一，政策利率锚定作用明显。央 行7天期逆回购利率作为LPR的定价基础，自2025年5月以来持续稳定，未作调整，这直接导致LPR 也"按兵不动"。第二，商业银行净息差承压。截至2025年四季度末，商业银行净息差处于1.42%的历史 低位，在盈利压力下，报价行更倾向于维持现有利率水平，以保障利差空间。第三，货币政策进入观察 期。今年1月，央行已推出结构性货币政策工具，重点支持科技创新、小微企业等重点领域。当前的政 策重心在于评估前期措施的落地效果，这要求利率保持连续性且坚持审慎的取向。 申银万国期货分析师陈梦赟同样认为，本次LPR保持不变的直接原因是LPR定价锚——央行7天期逆回 购利率，并未发生变化。与此同时，商业银行面临净息差收窄的压力，在盈利空间受限的情况下，银行 下调LPR报价的意愿有限。 2月24日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布2026年2月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）：1年 期LPR为3.0%,5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均与上月持平。据期货日报记者了解，自2025年6月以来，两个 期限品种的LPR连续9个月保持不变。 田轩在 ...

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪铅唯一下跌，跌幅达0.18%。沪镍以1.3%的涨幅领涨，其余金 属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨0.21%，铸造铝主连涨0.88%。 此外，碳酸锂主连临近收盘涨幅扩大至10.56%，多晶硅跌4.03%，工业硅涨0.54%，欧线集运主连涨 6.84%报1320.6。 黑色系方面普跌，仅不锈钢上涨1.84%，铁矿跌1.79%，螺纹、热卷跌幅均在0.8%左右。双焦方面，焦 煤跌1.65%，焦炭跌2.3%。 外盘方面，截至15：04分，外盘基本金属集体飘红，且涨幅相较内盘更胜一筹，伦锡以3.78%的涨幅领 涨，伦镍涨2.4%，伦铜涨1.38%，伦锌涨1.51%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 贵金属方面，截至15:04分，COMEX黄金跌0.68%，COMEX白银涨1.68%。国内方面，沪金涨3.52%， 沪银大涨12.84%。 此外，铂主连涨5.54%，钯主连涨4.57%。 截至今日15:03分行情 美元方面： 截至15:04分，美元指数上涨0.07%报97.8，据央视新闻消息：当地时间23日，美国媒体报道称美国政府 正考虑以"国家安全"为由，对约六个行 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 2026 年 2 月 LPR 报价保持不变，二季度有望下调 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 2026 年 2 月 24 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年 期品种报 3.0%，上月为 3.0%；5 年期以上品种报 3.5%，上月为 3.5%。 解读： 2 月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价保持不变，符合市场预期，有两个直接原因：首先，2 月以 来政策利率（央行 7 天期逆回购利率）保持稳定，意味着 2 月 LPR 报价的定价基础没有发生 变化，已在很大程度上预示当月 LPR 报价会保持不动。另外，尽管受央行在春节前较大规模 投放流动性等影响，近期包括 1 年期商业银行（AAA 级）同业存单到期收益率在内的主要中 长端市场利率略有下行，但最新数据显示，2025 年四季度末商业银行净息差持续处于 1.42% 历史最低位，当前报价行缺乏主动下调 LPR 报价加点的动力。 我们认为，2025 年 6 月以来 LPR 报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受出口持续偏 强、以高技术制造业为代表的新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，2025 年宏观经济顶住外部经 贸波动压力及国内房地产市场调 ...

Employment and Labor Market - In 2025, the new urban employment reached 12.67 million, with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.2%, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to implement new employment policies for youth, including college graduates, and enhance recruitment activities [1] - Measures will be taken to support migrant workers and improve employment assistance for vulnerable groups, including veterans [1] Energy Sector - In 2025, 7,084 out of 7,480 key energy-consuming units passed energy measurement reviews, achieving a compliance rate of 94.71% [1] - The energy measurement reviews aim for full coverage of key energy-consuming units during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Financial Sector - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year is set at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [2] - The People's Bank of China indicates there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [2] Consumer Finance - The implementation period for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to the end of 2026, with a 1% annual subsidy rate for eligible consumption [4] - The policy now includes credit card installment payments as part of the support scope [4] Tourism Sector - The 2026 version of the team tourism contract template will be implemented nationwide starting March 31, 2026, focusing on enhancing service quality and consumer protection [5] Investment and Economic Development - A special guarantee plan for private investment totaling 500 billion yuan will be implemented over two years to support small and micro enterprises [6] - The plan aims to provide loan guarantees for various business activities, including equipment purchases and digital transformation [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - In 2025, the National Medical Products Administration approved 76 innovative drugs, with 30 of them successfully entering the national medical insurance directory, achieving a coverage rate of 70% for new drugs approved in the first half of the year [6] Fiscal Policy - In 2025, the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 1.3 trillion yuan to support consumption and economic transformation [7] - The funds are allocated for consumer subsidies and to stimulate sales in related sectors, enhancing the quality of life for citizens [7] Regulatory Framework - The National Supervisory Commission will implement the "Regulations on the Disclosure of Supervisory Work Information" starting March 1, 2026, to enhance transparency in supervisory activities [8] Economic Strategy - The National Development and Reform Commission is developing plans to stabilize employment and increase residents' income, which are crucial for boosting domestic demand [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report] - Dollar Index Drops, Non-ferrous Sector Oscillates Higher [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling, Lin Jingyan Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The dollar index has declined, leading to an oscillating upward trend in the non-ferrous sector [1] - For copper, short - term price pressure exists due to the US delaying new tariffs on key mineral imports, but the decline is limited due to the falling dollar index and improved market sentiment [8] - For zinc, the fundamental contradictions are insufficient, and its price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, suggesting a high - selling and low - buying strategy [95] - For nickel and stainless steel, due to factors such as potential supply shortages in Indonesia and shipping incidents in the Philippines, nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level, with attention to potential risks such as short - squeeze in near - month contracts [198][199] Group 4: Summary by Section 4.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The dollar index is at 97.5, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a weekly decline of 1.88%, and an annual decline of 0.78%. The exchange rate CNH is 6.9642, with a daily increase of 0.02%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, and an annual decline of 0.35% [6] - Most non - ferrous metals show varying degrees of price changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the price of lithium carbonate has a significant increase, with a daily increase of 7.55%, a weekly increase of 24.16%, and an annual increase of 49.30% [6] 4.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: China's 2025 GDP growth meets expectations, and recent domestic policies may improve domestic demand. The US has some policy stances that affect market risk appetite, and the dollar index is under pressure [8] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreases, the port inventory slightly increases, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 is set at 0 [8] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore slightly expands, while the profit of those using long - term contracts increases [8] - **Demand End**: The downstream demand is released as the copper price falls, and the operating rate of refined copper rods increases [8] - **Inventory**: Global copper inventories increase significantly [8] - **Investment View**: The copper price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low levels [8] 4.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The macro - sentiment is complex, with geopolitical disturbances and central bank policy expectations affecting the market [95] - **Raw Material End**: The average domestic processing fee remains stable, the imported processing fee continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ore may be affected by geopolitical risks [95] - **Smelting End**: The domestic zinc ingot production continues to shrink, and the average loss per ton of zinc for smelters narrows slightly [95] - **Demand End**: The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, and the procurement is mainly for rigid needs [95] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and LME inventory of zinc ingots both show a slight increase [95] - **Investment View**: The zinc price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [95] 4.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Macro Factors**: The US PCE inflation data meets expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged. The Chinese central bank may implement further policies. Indonesia's policies increase concerns about nickel supply [198][199] - **Raw Material End**: The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is firm, the rainfall in the Philippine production area affects transportation, and the domestic port inventory of nickel ore is decreasing [198][199] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel and nickel - iron may increase, and the production of stainless steel is expected to rise in January [198][199] - **Demand End**: The social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The demand for new energy is affected by the production schedule of precursor enterprises [198][199] - **Inventory**: Global nickel inventories are increasing [198] - **Investment View**: Nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances and potential short - squeeze risks [198][199]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current LPR quotes remain stable. The main reasons are that the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remains unchanged and the bank's liability cost is stable while the net interest margin is at a historical low, so commercial banks lack the motivation to actively lower LPR [4]. - Although the valuation levels of some technology themes in the A - share market are at historical highs, the overall A - share valuation is at a reasonable and neutral level. The regulatory attitude is to crack down on "pseudo - leaders" without fundamental support, and the policy continues to protect the "long - bull" pattern of the stock index. The current capital - driven force for the market is still strong, and the domestic fundamentals are in the bottom - building stage. It is expected that the upward trend of the stock index has not ended, and the short - term shock adjustment space is limited. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Interest Rates and Bond Market - DRO01 closed at 1.42 with a 9.59bp increase, DR007 closed at 1.51 with a 1.22bp increase, GC001 closed at 1.53 with a 3.50bp decrease, GC007 closed at 1.56 with a 0.50bp increase, SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.20bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change [3]. - The 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.28 with a 0.25bp increase, the 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.55 with a 1.00bp increase, the 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.84 with a 0.65bp increase, and the 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.26 with a 4.00bp decrease [3]. - The central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. The maturity of reverse repurchase on the same day was 179.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net investment of 30.9 billion yuan [3]. Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.01% to 4723.7, the Shanghai 50 fell 0.46% to 3053.1, the CSI 500 rose 0.57% to 8387.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.75% to 8309.3 [5]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume decreased by 4.7% to 114,719, and the position increased by 1.0% to 289,557; IH trading volume decreased by 3.5% to 52,603, and the position increased by 1.5% to 97,532; IC trading volume decreased by 19.5% to 138,385, and the position decreased by 0.1% to 329,619; IM trading volume decreased by 19.5% to 172,599, and the position decreased by 2.5% to 372,277 [5]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day. Most industry sectors closed up, with aerospace, mining, shipbuilding, glass fiber, gas, petroleum, photovoltaic equipment, coal, and cement building materials sectors leading the gains, while electronic chemicals and insurance sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF contracts: The current - month contract was at a 0.46% premium, the next - month contract at a 0.58% premium, the current - quarter contract at a 2.13% premium, and the next - quarter contract at a 3.16% premium [7]. - The basis of IH contracts: The current - month contract was at a 1.60% discount, the next - month contract at a 1.69% discount, the current - quarter contract at a 0.36% discount, and the next - quarter contract at a 1.37% premium [7]. - The basis of IC contracts: The current - month contract was at a 2.46% discount, the next - month contract at a 0.95% discount, the current - quarter contract at a 2.29% premium, and the next - quarter contract at a 3.50% premium [7]. - The basis of IM contracts: The current - month contract was at a 1.31% discount, the next - month contract at a 1.29% premium, the current - quarter contract at a 5.64% premium, and the next - quarter contract at a 6.57% premium [7].

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, marking eight consecutive months of stability, with expectations for GDP growth to rebound to around 4.7% in Q1 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Unchanged LPR - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates, particularly the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which indicates that the pricing basis for the LPR has not changed [2]. - Major mid to long-term market interest rates, including the 1-year interbank certificates of deposit yield, have remained stable, leading to little change in commercial banks' financing costs [2]. - The lack of incentive for banks to lower the LPR is due to historically low net interest margins [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Despite a decline in economic growth in Q4 2025 due to real estate market adjustments and weakened investment and consumption, stable employment and rising price levels are noted [3]. - The implementation of new policies in January 2026, including a structural interest rate cut of 0.25%, is expected to support economic recovery, alongside the gradual effects of previous investment expansion policies [3]. - The regulatory body may guide a significant reduction in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Direction - The central bank's recent structural interest rate cut indicates a reduced necessity for comprehensive rate cuts in the short term [4]. - The balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the financial sector is crucial, as the net interest margin for commercial banks remains at a historical low of 1.42% [4]. - Future monetary policy may involve a combination of measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, depending on market conditions and fiscal policy implementation [5][6].

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Economic Indicators - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year periods remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of January 2026, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and stable market interest rates, particularly in the interbank lending market[2] - Economic growth is projected to rebound to approximately 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, despite challenges in the real estate market and weakened investment and consumption[3] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is potential for a comprehensive policy rate cut in Q2 2026, which may lead to a decrease in LPR pricing to stimulate consumption and investment[3] - The 2026 inflation rate is expected to remain low, allowing for a moderately accommodative monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts[4] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts in 2026 may reduce constraints on domestic monetary policy adjustments[5] - Regulatory measures may be implemented to significantly lower the 5-year LPR to address high residential mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand[5]

Group 1: LPR Stability and Economic Context - The latest LPR quotes show that the 1-year rate remains at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, unchanged for 8 months, which aligns with expectations [1][3] - The increase in personal deposits and disposable income, with a per capita disposable income of 43,377 yuan (up 5% year-on-year), indicates a trend of "more saving, less borrowing" in asset allocation [1] - The current economic environment reflects a weak recovery, with GDP growth at 5% and M2 growth at 8.5%, suggesting that money is being held in fixed deposits rather than circulating in the economy [1][9] Group 2: Banking Profitability and LPR Implications - Maintaining the LPR is crucial for stabilizing bank profit margins, with the current net interest margin at 1.42%, which is at a historical low [3][6] - The pressure on banks' net interest margins and the need to avoid disrupting pricing systems suggest that there is little incentive for banks to lower the LPR further [6][11] - The central bank's focus on structural tools to provide targeted relief rather than broad rate cuts reflects a strategic approach to monetary policy [10][11] Group 3: Macroeconomic Indicators and Policy Direction - Positive macroeconomic data for 2025, including signs of stabilization in the real estate market, reduces the urgency for a broad interest rate cut [9][10] - The recent adjustments in structural monetary policy tools, such as a 0.25 percentage point reduction in certain rates, indicate a preference for targeted measures over general rate cuts [11][12] - The potential for further adjustments in the LPR remains, particularly if economic pressures increase or if the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to lower rates [10][12]