期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 21 日 铝：高位震荡 氧化铝：横盘小涨 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20535 | -10 | -255 | 120 | 750 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | l | l | ー | l | 20565 | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2577 | 10 | -32 | -20 | 150 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 128168 | 22981 | 46090 | -80473 | -10538 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 228028 | -6671 | 11562 | ર્ ૨૨૩૭ | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range; silver is likely to decline slightly [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driver, and its price will oscillate [2][11]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][14]. - The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price [2][17]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][20]. - Aluminum will trade in a high - level range; alumina will rise slightly in a sideways movement; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel will have a narrow - range oscillation based on fundamental logic, and investors should be wary of news - related risks; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99%. For silver,沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, and Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48%. The trading volumes and open interests of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of ETFs, domestic and foreign exchanges showed different trends, such as a decrease in SPDR黄金ETF持仓 by 4 and an increase in Comex白银库存 by 600,232 ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook; Fed's potential payment innovation with the industry; China's August LPR remained unchanged [5][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1; silver trend intensity is - 1 [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.30% during the day and increased by 0.13% at night; the closing price of伦铜3M电子盘 increased by 0.38%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪铜 decreased by 275 tons, and that of伦铜 increased by 1,200 tons. Various spreads such as LME铜升贴水 and现货 - to - futures spreads also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged; PT Smelting's maintenance was extended; Codelco's smelter restarted; Glencore applied for investment incentives; China's July copper imports data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪锌主力 increased by 0.27%, and that of伦锌3M电子盘 decreased by 0.50%. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various spreads also changed [14]. - **News**: The US PPI reached 3.3%, and the growth rate of M2 was approaching 5%, which might lead to inflation [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪铅主力 decreased by 0.59%, and that of伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 0.33%. The inventory of沪铅 and伦铅 decreased, and other data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 decreased by 0.09% during the day and 0.23% at night; the closing price of伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪锡 decreased by 184 tons, and that of伦锡 increased by 85 tons. Various spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed's meeting minutes, Trump's pressure on the Fed, etc. [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Related Data**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME铝3M prices changed; for alumina,沪氧化铝主力 price changed. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, and enterprise profits also changed [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August LPR remained unchanged; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Industry Chain Data**: The closing prices of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力 changed. Various data in the industrial chain such as import profit, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including potential export suspension, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension; a steel mill in Shandong reduced production [28][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, while silver is expected to experience a slight decline [1] - The trend strength of gold is 1, indicating a relatively weak positive outlook; the trend strength of silver is - 1, indicating a relatively weak negative outlook [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: - For gold, the previous day's closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99% [2] - For silver, the previous day's closing prices of沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, while Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - For沪金2510, the previous day's trading volume increased by 31,416 compared to the day before, and the open interest increased by 39 [2] - For沪银2510, the previous day's trading volume increased by 242,392 compared to the day before, and the open interest decreased by 23,822 [2] - **ETF and Inventory**: - The SPDR gold ETF持仓 decreased by 4, and the SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) decreased by 34 [2] - The沪金 inventory increased by 249 kilograms, while the Comex黄金 inventory (the day before) decreased by 17,426 ounces; the沪银 inventory decreased by 9,247 kilograms, while the Comex白银 inventory (the day before) increased by 600,232 ounces [2] - **Price Spreads**: - The买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利 cost decreased by 0.87, and the买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利 cost decreased by 11.3 [2] - The黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差 increased by 378.99, and the白银T+D对伦敦银的价差 increased by 4,670 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - The dollar index decreased by 0.04%, and the dollar - to - CNY (CNY spot) decreased by 0.06% [2] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment, and there are concerns about the fragility of the US Treasury market and the impact of stablecoins [4] - Trump pressured the Fed, asking Lisa Cook to resign, but Cook refused to be coerced [7] - Fed Chair favorite Waller said there's nothing to fear about cryptocurrency technology and the Fed should promote payment innovation with the industry [7] - Li Qiang emphasized promoting the improvement and upgrading of the biopharmaceutical industry [7] - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [7] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The tin price has been fluctuating recently. The downstream enterprises mostly make rigid - demand purchases when the price is low, and there are some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has decreased, while the LME inventory shows a downward trend. Technically, the position has decreased, both long and short are cautious, and the lower - shadow positive line indicates support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the range of 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 267,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract is 230 yuan lower, with a change of 0; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,770 US dollars/ton, an increase of 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 19,377 lots, a decrease of 1,627 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 872 lots, a decrease of 159 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 1,630 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,792 tons, a decrease of 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 120 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,329 tons, a decrease of 184 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,550 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 81 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6行业消息 - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, reaching 10 outcomes. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the photovoltaic industry competition order and curb low - price disorderly competition [3] 3.7观点总结 - Macroscopically, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, and the photovoltaic industry competition order will be regulated. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most enterprises only maintaining rigid - demand production and receiving goods, and the orders are unsatisfactory. Recently, the tin price has been fluctuating, with most downstream enterprises making rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories are decreasing. Technically, the open interest has decreased, both long and short are cautious, and the lower - shadow positive line indicates support, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 3.8重点关注 - There is no news today [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both the 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which aligns with market expectations [2] Group 1: LPR Quotation Stability - The LPR rates for August remained unchanged due to the stability of the policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate [2] - Market interest rates have seen an upward trend recently, but banks lack the incentive to lower the LPR due to historically low net interest margins [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The continuous stability of the LPR for three months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [2] - Experts suggest that the current period is one of policy observation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in the LPR [2]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for August remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in policy rates, particularly the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, indicates no changes in the pricing basis for LPR, leading to the unchanged rates[2] - The LPR has remained stable for three consecutive months, primarily due to a moderately strong macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for immediate adjustments[2] Group 2: Future Economic Outlook and Policy Adjustments - Economic data from July shows downward volatility, suggesting increased downward pressure on the economy in the third quarter, with external demand likely to slow[3] - There is potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in early Q4, which could lead to lower LPR rates[3] - Lower LPR rates are expected to stimulate internal financing demand, crucial for promoting consumption and investment in the second half of the year[3] - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, without immediate concerns over high inflation[3] - Strengthening policies for the real estate market in the second half of the year may involve guiding the 5-year LPR downwards to alleviate high mortgage rates and boost housing demand[3]

下周，8月LPR报价将公布;2025全球智慧教育大会等多个行业性会议将举行;杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会召 开在即。另外，Wind数据显示，下周无新股发行。 8月LPR报价将公布 8月20日，1年期和5年期以上贷款市场报价利率(LPR)将公布最新值。7月21日，中国人民银行授权全国 银行间同业拆借中心公布，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，两个期限品种均与6月持平。 7月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。业内分析认为，在新的货币政策框架下，7天期 逆回购利率作为主要的政策利率，成为LPR新的"定价锚"，并通过强化各利率间协同，逐步疏通由短及 长的利率传导关系。自5月降息之后，近期政策利率持稳，使得LPR报价的定价基础未变，金融数据表 现良好也使得短期内政策加码的必要性不强。 多个行业性会议将举行 根据亚特兰大联储统计的数据(基于SOFR期货)，目前市场预计美联储在9月降息25个基点的可能性高达 62.9%，降息50个基点的可能性也达到了22.5%。 来源：大众证券报 此外，2025年WWEC世界教育者大会将于8月20日至22日在上海国家会展中心隆重举行。第二十四届全 国植物基因组学大 ...

General Information - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Report Type: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the bond market lacks a clear direction due to stable fundamentals, policy, and capital conditions, along with elevated market risk appetite. Long - term, there may be an increase in monetary easing in October, but there's a risk of a bond market trend reversal if anti - involution effectively boosts domestic demand and inflation [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The marginal improvement in inter - bank liquidity continued, but the sharp rise in A - shares, especially the strength of cyclical stocks, significantly suppressed the bond market, and the decline of treasury bond futures widened in the afternoon [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased. Short - term yields changed slightly, while long - term yields rose by about 1 - 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.689%, up 1.2bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The funding situation was stable. There were 462.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 247.7 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates declined, and medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] 2. Industry News - **LPR**: The LPR quotes in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5% [13] - **Sino - EU Relations**: European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24 [13] - **Central Bank Policy**: The central bank solicited public opinions on canceling the regulation on freezing bond repurchase collateral, mainly to enhance bond liquidity and optimize the central bank's monetary policy operation mechanism [13] - **Business and Trade**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China and Canada's tightened steel import restrictions [13] - **Infrastructure Project**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [14] - **G20 Meeting**: At the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, China stated that it would implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high - level opening - up in the second half of the year [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts on July 22 were presented, as well as information on spreads between different contracts and their trends [6] - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates, and other money market indicators were covered [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [35]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations[4] - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a stable yet strong economic performance, reducing the immediate necessity for LPR adjustments[5] - The central bank is expected to maintain a policy observation period, with LPR prices likely to remain stable in the short term[5] Group 2: Future Adjustments and Economic Context - There is potential for LPR adjustments in the second half of the year due to external uncertainties and efforts to boost domestic demand[5] - The central bank's recent reduction of the public housing loan rate by 0.25 percentage points opens up possibilities for further reductions in commercial mortgage rates[6] - The actual residential mortgage rate is currently at 4.3%, near historical highs, necessitating adjustments to stimulate housing demand[6] - The next LPR adjustment is anticipated around early Q4, with a potential reduction greater than the previous 0.1 percentage points, possibly reaching 0.2 percentage points[6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month, aligning with market expectations. This marks the second consecutive month of stable rates following a 10 basis point reduction in May [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Dongfang Jincheng noted that after the implementation of monetary easing tools in May, the focus has shifted to observing the effectiveness of these policies, leading to insufficient motivation for banks to lower LPR and policy rates further [3]. - The economic performance in the second quarter has been stable yet strong, reducing the immediate necessity for further LPR adjustments to enhance counter-cyclical regulation [3]. - The stability of policy rates over the past two months indicates that factors influencing LPR adjustments have not changed significantly, justifying the unchanged LPR rates in July [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, analysts expect the LPR to remain stable in the short term as the market enters a policy observation phase. However, there is potential for future reductions in LPR as the external environment remains uncertain and efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market continue [3]. - The anticipated impact of external fluctuations on exports is expected to manifest more significantly in the second half of the year, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the central bank, which may lead to further reductions in LPR [3]. - The next potential adjustment of the LPR is projected to occur around the beginning of the fourth quarter [3].