行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.840 | 111.930 | 112.830 | 112.820 | 0.990 | 0.89 | 140734 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on December 23, 2025. For example, most equity index futures are expected to be strongly volatile, while some bond futures are expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures on December 22, 2025, including price movements, highs, lows, and the impact of key price levels and moving averages. It also provides expectations for the December 2025 and December 23, 2025 trends of each futures contract [11][36][42]. - The report presents a series of macro - economic and policy news, such as the LPR remaining unchanged, central economic work conference arrangements, and regulatory policy adjustments, which are expected to have an impact on the futures market [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Equity Index Futures**: On December 23, 2025, IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to be strongly volatile, with specific resistance and support levels provided. In December 2025, these contracts are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][17][18]. - **Bond Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the ten - year bond futures T2603 and thirty - year bond futures TL2603 are expected to be weakly volatile. In December 2025, the overall bond market is expected to be weak [39][40]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: On December 23, 2025, gold (AU2602), silver (AG2602), platinum (PT2606), and palladium (PD2606) futures are expected to be strongly volatile and may reach new highs. In December 2025, they are also expected to perform strongly [2][42][51]. - **Base Metals Futures**: On December 23, 2025, copper (CU2602) is expected to oscillate and consolidate, aluminum (AL2602) is expected to be weakly volatile, and other base metals futures also have corresponding trend expectations. In December 2025, different base metals futures have different trends, with some expected to be strongly volatile and others weakly volatile [2][61][67]. - **Other Futures**: Other futures such as alumina, nickel, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, etc., also have specific trend expectations for December 23, 2025, and December 2025 [72][77][80]. Macro - economic News and Policy - **Macroeconomic News**: The State Council is conducting research on the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline draft, the 12 - month LPR remains unchanged, and the central economic work conference has deployed multiple key reform tasks [3][5]. - **Policy News**: The draft of the Nursery Service Law is being reviewed, the Banking Supervision and Administration Law is being revised, and the market supervision department has issued regulations on the quality and safety of online - sold industrial products [6]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has taken measures to cool the silver futures market, adjusting trading fees and limiting the maximum number of intraday opening positions [8]. - On December 22, 2025, international precious metals futures generally rose, oil futures prices increased due to supply concerns, and London base metals showed mixed trends [9][10].

股指期货全景日报 2025/12/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IH主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 4571.4 3025.6 7133.2 | +5.4↑ IF次主力合约（2601） +6.6↑ IH次主力合约（2601） +3.2↑ IC次主力合约（2601） | 4598.8 3024.2 7223.6 | +6.8↑ +5.0↑ +3.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 7197.4 | -11.0↓ IM次主力合约（2601） | 7343.0 | -11.6↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1574.6 | +2.2↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2624.8 | +3.4↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 119.4 | -18.0↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4199.4 | +5.6↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2744.2 | -14.6↓ IM-I ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 沪铜产业日报 2025/12/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) 93,930.00 | | -390.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,967.50 | +42.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -70.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 241,093.00 | -5697.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) -33,302.00 | -996.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | | 157,750.00 | -2650.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) 95,805.00 | +6416.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | | 51,750.00 | -4700.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) 49,543. ...

2025年12月22日贷款市场报价利率（LPR） 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年12月22日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年 期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 来源： 中国人民银行 责编：罗晓霞 校对：杨立林 百万用户都在看 "黑天鹅"突袭！刚刚，全线大跌！ 利好来了！摩尔线程，重磅发布！ 美军，大规模空袭！ 集体大涨！特朗普，刚刚签了！ 降息，大消息！美联储，重磅传来！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 券中社 × 券商中国 券 中 社 扫码下载券中社APP 扫码关注券商中国公众号 quanshangcn qzs.stcn.com 舞中 券中社APP 券 商 中 国 是 证 券 市 场 权 威 媒 体 《 证 券 时 报 》 旗 下 新 媒 体 , 券 商 中 国 对 该 平 台 所 刊 载 的 原 创 内 容 享 有 著 作 权 , 未 经 授 权 禁 止 转 载 ， 否 则 将 追 究 相 应 法 律 责 任 。 看券商中国 知天下财经 F ...

在华西证券宏观联席首席分析师肖金川看来，本周资金面的扰动主要来自跨年和政府债缴款。一方面， 25日起，拆借7天利率可跨年，7天资金波动或显著加大。参考历史经验，2024年距离年末相同时点， R007单日上行幅度达25BP。另一方面，政府债缴款规模将显著提升。不过，25日恰逢MLF的常规续作 窗口，或一定程度上缓解缴款带来的压力。综合来看，考虑到央行宽货币态度，今年的情况或更接近 2024年水平，当前7天资金R007基本摆布在1.50%附近，可跨年当日资金价格或抬升至1.6-1.7%。 消息面上，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年12月22日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，连续第七个月"按兵不动"。 东方金诚分析称，2026年一季度央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，不排除春节前靠前落地的可能。这将 带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下调，引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下行，激发内生性融资需 求。这是现阶段促消费扩投资、有效对冲外需放缓的一个重要发力点。当前物价水平偏低，货币政策在 包括降息在内的适度宽松方向上有充足空间。另外，12月美联储下调政策 ...

往后看，受内外部多重因素影响，四季度以来经济增长动能继续回落，其中，11 月国内 投资、消费、工业生产等宏观数据下行势头值得关注；另外，11 月出口增速出现大幅反弹， 但四季度整体出口增速仍将明显低于前期，四季度 GDP 增速或将从三季度的 4.8%回落至 4.5% 左右。综合考虑最新经济增长动能变化、上年同期基数偏高等影响，预计 2026 年一季度经济 运行仍将面临一定下行压力。由此，着眼于稳定 2026 年一季度经济运行，货币政策有望结束 观察期，进入发力阶段。可以看到，12 月中央经济工作会议明确要求，2026 年"要继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活 高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具……"我们判断，2026 年一季度央行有可能实施新一轮降 息降准，不排除春节前靠前落地的可能。这将带动两个期限品种的 LPR 报价跟进下调，引导 东方金诚宏观研究 12 月 LPR 报价保持不变，2026 年一季度有可能下调 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件： 2025 年 12 月 22 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年期品种报 3.0 ...

文/刘佳 12月22日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新一期LPR报价，其中1年期LPR报 3.0%，上月为3.0%；5年期以上LPR报3.5%，上月为3.5%。至此，两个期限品种的LPR报价均连续7个月 保持不变。 业内人士分析认为，自6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口持续超预 期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长韧性超出普 遍预期；下半年以来经济增长动能有所弱化，但实现全年"5.0%左右"的经济增长目标已没有悬念。因 此，年底前逆周期调节加力的迫切性不高，货币政策保持较强定力。 "往后看，着眼于稳定2026年一季度经济运行，货币政策有望结束观察期，进入发力阶段。"东方金诚首 席分析师王青对《华夏时报》记者表示，2026年一季度央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，不排除春节前 靠前落地的可能。这将带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下调，引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下 行，激发内生性融资需求。这是现阶段促消费扩投资、有效对冲外需放缓的一个重要发力点。 编辑：冯樱子 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inter - bank market liquidity remains loose, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions staying around 1.32%. The November LPR quotes remain unchanged [4]. - The stock index rose and then fell yesterday, showing an overall volatile performance. It is expected that market differences will be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The bottom - fishing effect of Central Huijin provides a certain buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to lay out for the further rise of the stock index next year [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31%, down 0.04bp; DR007 at 1.45%, down 2.79bp; GC001 at 1.38%, down 6.50bp; GC007 at 1.52%, down 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.58%, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.35%, down 0.60bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57%, up 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.84%, down 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.00%, down 1.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment for the day was 56.4 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4515, down 0.05%; the SSE 50 at 2972, up 0.02%; the CSI 500 at 6951.3, down 0.2%; the CSI 1000 at 7257.5, up 0.12%. The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.7098 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with papermaking, batteries, consumer electronics, photovoltaic equipment, and chemical raw materials sectors leading the gains, while cultural media, cement building materials, Internet services, pharmaceutical commerce, and gaming sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume was 100,893, up 3.7%; IF open interest was 264,196, up 1.9%; IH volume was 42,497, up 19.7%; IH open interest was 92,285, up 7.0%; IC volume was 112,976, up 5.6%; IC open interest was 254,570, up 2.2%; IM volume was 183,443, up 3.3%; IM open interest was 364,043, up 0.8% [5]. 3.3 Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 8.38%, 6.21%, 3.95%, and 3.99% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.51%, 3.70%, 1.81%, and 1.63% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 13.15%, 11.90%, 10.34%, and 11.10% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 17.93%, 15.48%, 13.47%, and 13.25% respectively [7].

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 对于股指来说,预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化,待 新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。同时,中央汇金的托底功能为指数提 供了缓冲,下行风险预计可控。短期可重点关注海外流动性变化信号,以 及国内政策会否提前发力。 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H | IF升贴水 | 4.22% | 4.44% | 2.97% | 3.41% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 3.05% | 2.09% | 0.98% | 1.11% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 8.79% | 9.16% | 9.26% | 10.43% | | 情 况 | IM升贴水 | 12.49% | 12.18% | 11.89% | 12.18% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水）。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人 ...