2026年开年，A股"春季躁动"行情启动，商业航天、脑机接口、半导体等板块轮番演绎，人形机器人、创新药概念股持续活跃。市场活跃 背景下，全市场寻找"最锋利的矛"，弹性较高的投资工具吸引短期资金竞相追逐。 在市场躁动行情中，银华智享混合型基金拟任基金经理方建表示，投资中既要打造"锋利的矛"，也要搭配控制回撤、降低波动的"盾"，收 益稳健、回撤较小、可以持续给客户赚钱的产品，以及集成电路等细分行业专家管理的主题基金，或是比较符合投资者需求的两类产品， 这也是他在产品线关注的重要方向。 落实到投资方法上，他会在全市场精选成长股，重点寻找未来3至5年业绩增长突出、确定性强的优质行业或赛道，从中选出已经走出来 的"从1到N"且距离天花板还有足够空间的核心龙头公司并长期持有，力争获取优质成长股业绩增长带来的长期回报。 在他看来， 学习 查理• 芒格"买入好行业里面的好公司并长期持有"，这个投资框架大道至简，但由于过往A股市场情绪波动较大，在坚持 正确的投资理念背景下，还需要兼顾投资者体验，才能长期陪伴投资者，力争让投资者能够享受到成长股投资的长期较好回报。 充分发挥成长股进攻性优势 兼顾绝对收益运作 方建，清华大学材料学 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high trading activity, with sectors like AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robotics gaining attention. Western Lide Fund's equity investment team has gained investor trust through solid research capabilities and outstanding product performance, frequently appearing on Alipay's "hot search fund" section [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy and Team Structure - Western Lide Fund's active equity team believes in the principle of "going fast alone, going far together," achieving seamless integration from research to investment through clear division of labor and efficient collaboration [2] - The team employs a unique "four-dimensional system" as a unified research framework, integrating macro perspectives, industry depth, quantitative breadth, and stock precision throughout the investment decision-making process [2] - The team has established a consensus asset collaboration mechanism, combining collective discussions with individual decision-making to enhance cognitive boundaries and overcome personal perspective limitations [2] Group 2: Research and Investment Approach - The team maintains a research culture of "seeing is believing," conducting high-frequency field research and long-term tracking of core targets to ensure real-time grasp of industry trends [2] - The team has positioned itself as experts in emerging industries, successfully identifying key opportunities in sectors like photovoltaic inverters, AI applications, and robotics [2] Group 3: Product Design and Investor Experience - The quantitative team focuses on "downside alpha," emphasizing the ability to generate excess returns during market downturns, which is crucial for improving investor experience [3] - The mixed asset investment team prioritizes creating sustainable returns for clients, establishing a strict risk control system to ensure that clients can hold investments with peace of mind [3] - The team employs a dual-timing system for investment portfolios, combining predictive and responsive strategies to enhance adaptability [3] Group 4: Long-term Vision and Market Positioning - Western Lide Fund aims to create long-term value for investors, having received a five-star rating for stock investment capability from a reputable rating agency [4] - The team recognizes the diversity of investor needs and provides a range of product solutions that cater to different risk-return profiles, from high-growth technology investments to stable value-added products [4] - Looking ahead, the team will continue to align with China's industrial upgrading and self-reliance strategy, focusing on quality sectors like robotics, AI applications, and domestic computing power [4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond rebalancing strategy of 10/90 and 20/80, projecting cumulative returns of 6.80% and 12.44% by 2025 respectively [1] - As of December 26, 2025, the total market size of fixed income plus funds reached 21,730.41 billion, with 1,147 products, and 233 of these funds achieved historical net value highs last week [2][18] - The report highlights that 25 new products were launched last week, with median performance across various fund types showing divergence, such as mixed bond type I (0.09%), mixed bond type II (0.29%), and flexible allocation type (0.31%) [2][14] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index yielding 2.88% since December, while the total wealth index of government bonds yielded -0.10% [3] - The report recommends focusing on specific industry ETFs for December 2025, including Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, with a combined return of 3.08% last week [3] - The absolute return strategy performance tracking indicates that the stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.45% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy yielded 0.28% [4] Group 3 - The report details that the small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed exceptionally well, achieving a year-to-date return of 12.44% [4] - The report also notes that the conservative, balanced, and aggressive fund median returns were 0.14%, 0.27%, and 0.39% respectively for the week ending December 26, 2025 [2][14] - The absolute return strategy performance tracking shows that the combined strategy of stock-bond and industry ETF rotation yielded returns of 0.68% and 0.31% respectively last week [4]

Core Insights - Index investing has experienced rapid development due to policy guidance, market evolution, and changing investor demands [1][4] - The past decade has shown a clear trend towards indexation and institutionalization in the A-share market, making it increasingly difficult to achieve excess returns [1][4] - Investors typically focus on two types of returns: Beta (market returns from volatility) and Alpha (returns that exceed the market), with a growing interest in absolute return strategies [1][4] Group 1: Index Investment Strategies - Changcheng Fund has systematically organized its index investment strategies, including replication index strategies, "Index+" strategies, and absolute return strategies to provide investors with a richer selection [1][4] - The replication index strategy covers various styles of return exposure, aiming to provide clients with foundational and diverse standard tools [1][4] - Recent products launched by Changcheng Fund include a series of standard replication index products such as the Low Volatility Dividend 100, High Dividend Hong Kong Stock Connect, and others [1][4] Group 2: "Index+" and Absolute Return Strategies - The "Index+" strategy aims to capture both Beta and Alpha, allowing products to follow the market while also generating excess returns [2][5] - The CSI 500 index is highlighted as a balanced style index that seeks to uncover investment opportunities through breadth and balance [2][5] - The absolute return strategy employs quantitative analysis to dynamically control exposure across different equity indices and markets, helping clients achieve absolute return through quantitative investment strategies [6] - Two main product directions are identified: passive investment strategies based on time and space distribution (e.g., barbell and grid strategies) and a fully quantitative process from strategic to tactical levels [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond rebalancing strategy of 10/90 and 20/80, projecting cumulative returns of 6.21% and 11.30% by 2025 [1][2] - As of December 12, 2025, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 21,722.64 billion, with 1,148 products, and 20 of these funds achieved historical net value highs last week [2][9] - The performance median of various fund types showed divergence, with mixed bond type I at 0.06%, mixed bond type II at 0.03%, and flexible allocation type at 0.06% [2][14] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index, total wealth index of government bonds, and AU9999 contract yielding 1.20%, -0.29%, and 1.69% respectively since December [3] - Recommended industry ETFs for December 2025 include Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF, Huabao CSI Bank ETF, Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, and others, with a combined return of -0.72% last week [3][4] - The stock-bond mixed strategy showed a return of 0.09% last week, with year-to-date returns of 4.84%, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy yielded 0.11% last week and 2.01% year-to-date [4] Group 3 - The report highlights that the small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed best with a year-to-date return of 11.30%, while other strategies saw declines when adjusted to a 10/90 allocation [4][19] - The absolute return strategy tracking indicates that the median performance of mixed bond type I, mixed bond type II, and flexible allocation funds for the year-to-date is 1.78%, 4.18%, and 3.65% respectively [16][17] - The report notes that 20 fixed income + products reached historical net value highs, including 9 mixed bond type I funds and 4 mixed bond type II funds [19]

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Macro Timing Driven Stock-Bond 20/80 Rebalancing Strategy - **Construction Idea**: This model aims to balance a portfolio with 20% stocks and 80% bonds, driven by macroeconomic timing signals[4] - **Construction Process**: - The model uses macroeconomic indicators to determine the optimal timing for rebalancing the portfolio - The rebalancing is done monthly to maintain the 20/80 stock-bond ratio - The performance metrics include weekly, monthly, and year-to-date returns, annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, and Sharpe ratio[4][30] - **Evaluation**: The model is designed to provide a stable return with lower volatility by leveraging macroeconomic indicators for timing[4] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided Model 2: Macro Timing Driven Stock-Bond Risk Parity Strategy - **Construction Idea**: This model aims to balance the risk between stocks and bonds based on macroeconomic timing signals[4] - **Construction Process**: - The model uses macroeconomic indicators to determine the optimal timing for rebalancing the portfolio - The rebalancing is done to achieve risk parity between stocks and bonds - The performance metrics include weekly, monthly, and year-to-date returns, annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, and Sharpe ratio[4][30] - **Evaluation**: The model aims to achieve a balanced risk exposure between stocks and bonds, providing a more stable return profile[4] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided Model 3: Macro Timing + Sector ETF Rotation Enhanced Stock-Bond 20/80 Rebalancing Strategy - **Construction Idea**: This model enhances the stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy by incorporating sector ETF rotation based on macroeconomic timing signals[4] - **Construction Process**: - The model uses macroeconomic indicators to determine the optimal timing for rebalancing the portfolio - Sector ETFs are selected based on historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, technical factors, and macroeconomic factors - The rebalancing is done monthly to maintain the 20/80 stock-bond ratio - The performance metrics include weekly, monthly, and year-to-date returns, annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, and Sharpe ratio[4][30] - **Evaluation**: The model aims to enhance returns by rotating into favorable sector ETFs while maintaining a balanced stock-bond ratio[4] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided Model 4: Macro Timing + Sector ETF Rotation Enhanced Stock-Bond Risk Parity Strategy - **Construction Idea**: This model enhances the stock-bond risk parity strategy by incorporating sector ETF rotation based on macroeconomic timing signals[4] - **Construction Process**: - The model uses macroeconomic indicators to determine the optimal timing for rebalancing the portfolio - Sector ETFs are selected based on historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, technical factors, and macroeconomic factors - The rebalancing is done to achieve risk parity between stocks and bonds - The performance metrics include weekly, monthly, and year-to-date returns, annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, and Sharpe ratio[4][30] - **Evaluation**: The model aims to achieve a balanced risk exposure between stocks and bonds while enhancing returns through sector ETF rotation[4] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided Model Backtesting Results Macro Timing Driven Stock-Bond 20/80 Rebalancing Strategy - **Weekly Return**: -0.01%[4] - **Monthly Return**: -0.37%[4] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 4.83%[4] - **Annualized Volatility**: 3.47%[4] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.78%[4] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.54[4] Macro Timing Driven Stock-Bond Risk Parity Strategy - **Weekly Return**: -0.08%[4] - **Monthly Return**: -0.30%[4] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 2.07%[4] - **Annualized Volatility**: 1.77%[4] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.50%[4] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.30[4] Macro Timing + Sector ETF Rotation Enhanced Stock-Bond 20/80 Rebalancing Strategy - **Weekly Return**: 0.23%[4] - **Monthly Return**: -0.52%[4] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 7.98%[4] - **Annualized Volatility**: 5.46%[4] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 2.54%[4] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.62[4] Macro Timing + Sector ETF Rotation Enhanced Stock-Bond Risk Parity Strategy - **Weekly Return**: -0.02%[4] - **Monthly Return**: -0.33%[4] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.17%[4] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2.21%[4] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.45%[4] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.59[4] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: PB Earnings - **Construction Idea**: This factor aims to capture the value premium by focusing on stocks with low price-to-book ratios and high earnings[4] - **Construction Process**: - Select stocks with low price-to-book ratios - Filter for stocks with high earnings - Rebalance the portfolio monthly to maintain the factor exposure[4] - **Evaluation**: The factor aims to capture the value premium by focusing on undervalued stocks with strong earnings[4] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided Factor 2: High Dividend Yield - **Construction Idea**: This factor aims to capture the income premium by focusing on stocks with high dividend yields[4] - **Construction Process**: - Select stocks with high dividend yields - Rebalance the portfolio monthly to maintain the factor exposure[4] - **Evaluation**: The factor aims to provide stable income through high dividend-paying stocks[4] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided Factor 3: Small Cap Value - **Construction Idea**: This factor aims to capture the small-cap premium by focusing on small-cap stocks with low valuations[4] - **Construction Process**: - Select small-cap stocks with low valuations - Rebalance the portfolio monthly to maintain the factor exposure[4] - **Evaluation**: The factor aims to capture the higher growth potential of small-cap stocks with low valuations[4] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided Factor 4: Small Cap Growth - **Construction Idea**: This factor aims to capture the growth premium by focusing on small-cap stocks with high growth potential[4] - **Construction Process**: - Select small-cap stocks with high growth potential - Rebalance the portfolio monthly to maintain the factor exposure[4] - **Evaluation**: The factor aims to capture the higher growth potential of small-cap stocks with strong growth prospects[4] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided Factor Backtesting Results PB Earnings - **Weekly Return**: 0.11%[37] - **Monthly Return**: -0.28%[37] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 2.93%[37] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2.27%[37] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.82%[37] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.03[37] High Dividend Yield - **Weekly Return**: 0.08%[37] - **Monthly Return**: 0.02%[37] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 2.63%[37] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2.01%[37] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.39%[37] - **Sharpe Ratio**: -0.05[37] Small Cap Value - **Weekly Return**: 0.44%[37] - **Monthly Return**: -0.09%[37] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 6.14%[37] - **Annualized Volatility**: 3.42%[37] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 3.69%[37] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.52[37] Small Cap Growth - **Weekly Return**: 0.60%[37] - **Monthly Return**: 0.24%[37] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 6.50%[37] - **Annualized Volatility**: 3.49%[37] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 3.86%[37] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.56[37]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy of Liu Zhihui, a fund manager at GF Fund, focusing on achieving absolute returns in various market conditions, particularly through the management of the GF Jiyuan Bond Fund, which has achieved positive returns for seven consecutive years [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Liu Zhihui's investment strategy is centered around absolute return opportunities, avoiding extreme relative rankings, and aiming for positive returns regardless of market conditions [2]. - The GF Jiyuan Bond Fund has maintained a cumulative return rate in the top 20% of the market since February 2020, with a probability of achieving positive returns over the past year exceeding 98% [1][2]. - The investment framework consists of three main components: "Dao, Fa, Shu," reflecting a combination of strong and weak investment strategies developed over Liu's career [3][4]. Group 2: Risk Management - Liu emphasizes proactive risk management, focusing on preemptive measures rather than reactive ones, utilizing strategies such as trend-following, value investing, and position management [2][4]. - A three-tiered warning system for drawdowns is established within the fixed income team, allowing for timely adjustments to positions in response to market conditions [2][6]. - The approach includes avoiding long-term holdings of declining assets and ensuring investments have a safety margin and favorable potential returns [2][4]. Group 3: Market Adaptation - Liu's investment decisions are adaptable to changing market conditions, as demonstrated during the significant market fluctuations in 2022, where he shifted strategies based on macroeconomic scenarios [3][6]. - The GF Jiyuan Bond Fund will continue to apply the same absolute return focus as it transitions to the new GF Jihui Bond Fund, aiming for stable net value growth in various market environments [3][6]. - Liu's strategy includes dynamic adjustments to asset allocation, such as increasing exposure to high-growth sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals during market downturns, while also managing bond positions to mitigate interest rate risks [6].

Group 1: Fixed Income + Product Performance Tracking - As of November 21, 2025, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 21,846.96 billion, with 1,151 products, and 23 products achieved historical net value highs last week [2][20] - The median performance of various fund types for the week of November 17-21, 2025, showed mixed results: mixed bond type I (-0.04%), mixed bond type II (-0.72%), and flexible allocation type (-0.60%) [2][13] - The median returns for conservative, balanced, and aggressive funds were -0.13%, -0.59%, and -0.93%, respectively [2][13] Group 2: Major Asset Allocation and Industry ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 indicates inflation, with the Shanghai Composite Index, China Government Bond Total Wealth Index, and AU9999 contract yielding -4.03%, -0.10%, and 0.63% respectively since November [3] - Recommended industry ETFs for November 2025 include semiconductor, securities companies, communication equipment, new energy vehicle batteries, and animation game ETFs, with a weekly return of -5.15% and a cumulative return of -7.92% for the month [3] Group 3: Absolute Return Strategy Performance Tracking - The macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded -0.38% last week, with a year-to-date return of 4.84% [4] - The small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed a notable annual return of 10.57%, while the PB earnings, high dividend, and small-cap value strategies returned 4.35%, 3.81%, and 10.20% respectively [4] - The cumulative return for the small-cap growth combination based on a macro momentum model was 12.70% [4]

- The report introduces a macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy and a stock-bond risk parity strategy, both enhanced by industry ETF rotation. The stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy achieved a YTD return of 8.28%, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy achieved a YTD return of 3.40%[4][30][39] - The macro timing model predicts the Q4 macro environment as "Inflation". Based on this, the stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy and risk parity strategy are constructed to optimize asset allocation under inflationary conditions[24][30][31] - The industry ETF rotation strategy is built using multi-factor models, including historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, technical indicators, and macroeconomic factors. The strategy recommends focusing on ETFs such as the Guolian Semiconductor ETF, Guotai Securities ETF, Guotai Communication Equipment ETF, GF New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF, and Huaxia Animation Game ETF[25][27][28] - The report evaluates the performance of quantitative fixed-income+ strategies, including PB profitability, high dividend yield, small-cap value, and small-cap growth factors. Under a non-timing 20/80 rebalancing strategy, small-cap value achieved a YTD return of 11.72%, while small-cap growth achieved a YTD return of 11.56%. When combined with macro timing, small-cap value achieved a YTD return of 12.32%, and small-cap growth achieved a YTD return of 13.17%[4][39][42] - The inverse cycle configuration strategy combines PB profitability and small-cap value or small-cap growth factors under a 20/80 quarterly rebalancing framework. Both combinations achieved a YTD return of 5.74%[39][42] - The report provides detailed backtesting results for various strategies, including annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, and Sharpe ratios. For example, the macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy has an annualized volatility of 3.53%, a maximum drawdown of 1.78%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.72[30][39][42] - The quantitative fixed-income+ strategies are tested under different configurations, including non-timing 10/90 and 20/80 monthly rebalancing, macro timing 20/80 monthly rebalancing, and inverse cycle 20/80 quarterly rebalancing. The report provides net value curves and drawdown charts for these strategies[39][40][42]

Core Insights - The anticipated increase in equity allocation from wealth management funds is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the second half of the year and throughout 2026, driven by a strong performance in the A-share market and rising investor interest in asset allocation [1][2] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown significant strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points and achieving a 1.32% increase, marking a ten-year high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 26,718 billion yuan, an increase of 4,746 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Product Trends - The performance of bank wealth management "fixed income plus" products is closely linked to equity market trends, with mixed-asset products increasing from 6,470.76 billion yuan at the end of June to 6,548.11 billion yuan by the end of September, reflecting a growth of 77 billion yuan [2] - The issuance of equity-related wealth management products has significantly increased, with 12 equity products launched this year compared to only 2 last year, and 202 mixed products compared to 169 last year [4] Investment Strategies - Banks are employing various strategies for equity asset allocation, with a focus on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, gold, and dividend stocks, which have shown strong performance [2][3] - The use of multi-strategy and risk management approaches is becoming crucial, with strategies like "fixed income plus options" being implemented to mitigate risks while participating in equity markets [5][6] Future Outlook - The market for public REITs is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a total market value exceeding 200 billion yuan by 2025, driven by institutional demand and the unique advantages of certain assets in a low-interest-rate environment [6]