Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.0-28.0 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.19%-11.16% [7] - The significant improvement in raw material costs, particularly alumina, has positively impacted the company's profitability in Q2 2025, with a projected net profit of 17.3-18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.33%-34.71% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77.10%-87.36% [7] - The successful commissioning of the Heqing Yixin Aluminum Phase III project is expected to enhance production capacity and sales volume [7] - The supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market indicate a favorable long-term outlook, with limited supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 57,615 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6,323 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase of 43.3% compared to the previous year [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 16.4% in 2025, up from 10.0% in Q1 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to be 18.5% in 2025, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's low [6]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Investor Relations - The company has maintained a positive trend in key financial indicators such as cash flow and debt-to-asset ratio, considering increasing the dividend payout ratio [1] - Cumulative dividend amount over recent years is approximately 14.22 million, representing 32.23% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2024 [1] - The company emphasizes a shareholder-centric approach, aiming to enhance profitability and risk resistance to provide long-term returns to investors [1] Group 2: Production and Product Strategy - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Yunnan Wenshan Aluminum Co., Ltd., has achieved an annual production capacity of 140,000 tons of alumina, partially securing the supply for electrolytic aluminum production while still requiring external purchases [1] - Main aluminum processing products include deformed aluminum, aluminum alloy round ingots, deformed aluminum and aluminum alloy flat ingots, casting aluminum alloy ingots, electrical round aluminum rods, and aluminum welding materials [2] - The future strategy focuses on implementing the "Four Strong" strategic plan, aiming to build a benchmark for "green aluminum" and develop a high-quality industrial system [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in 2024, with a significant increase in aluminum production, but faced challenges in Q4 2024 due to a sharp decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, an increase of 27.61% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.52% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 592 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 59.21% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 54.52% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit was 974 million yuan, down 16.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Production and Pricing - The increase in 2024 profits was primarily driven by higher production volumes, with aluminum production rising by 22.45% year-on-year to 2.9383 million tons [2]. - The average price of alumina in 2024 was 4,100 yuan per ton, up 42% from 2023, while the average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,922 yuan per ton, an increase of 7% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina fell to 3,938 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26% from the previous quarter, which is expected to positively impact profits in Q2 2025 [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to increase electrolytic aluminum production in 2025, targeting an output of approximately 3.01 million tons [3]. - The financial condition is robust, with a significant reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio from 75.44% in 2018 to 23.97% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 11.76% in 2021 to 32.23% in 2024, with total cash dividends of 1.422 billion yuan, a growth of 78.26% from 2023 [3]. Investment Rating - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, with projected net profits of 6.19 billion yuan, 8.31 billion yuan, and 8.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 6, and 6 times [4]. - The company benefits from abundant green electricity in Yunnan province, with over 80% of its production electricity sourced from clean energy [4].

中国铝业（601600.SH）深度报告 潜龙在渊 2025 年 03 月 20 日 ➢ 风险提示：电解铝需求不及预期，氧化铝价格下降超预期，公司项目进展不 及预期。 ➢ 铝产业龙头，一体化布局优势明显。公司建立了从上游矿产资源开采，中游 冶炼至下游铝材加工的一体化生产体系，形成了核心主产业（铝土矿、氧化铝、 电解铝）+核心子产业（高纯铝、铝合金、精细氧化铝）+配套产业（碳素、煤炭、 电力）＋协同产业（贸易、物流、物资）＋绿色产业（赤泥利用、再生铝、电解 危废协同处置）的"3×5"产业发展格局，是全球铝行业唯一拥有完整产业链的 国际化大型铝业公司。 ➢ 铝土矿：重视资源布局，几内亚铝土矿持续放量。公司海内外铝土矿资源储 量丰富。截至 2023 年末，国内端，公司铝土矿储量 1.57 亿吨；海外端，公司在 几内亚投资建设的 Boffa 项目矿山拥有 17.61 亿吨资源量，是中国在几内亚投资 的最大铝土矿项目，Boffa 矿山品位较高，剩余可采年限超过 60 年，目前该项 目产量逐年攀升，2023 年产量达到 1425 万吨。 ➢ 氧化铝：铝土矿自给率达到 60%左右。截至 2023 年末，公司共计拥有 2226 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the aluminum industry with a significant integrated layout advantage, possessing a complete industrial chain from upstream mineral resource extraction to downstream aluminum processing [1][11]. - The company has rich bauxite resources, with domestic reserves of 157 million tons and overseas reserves of 1.761 billion tons in Guinea, ensuring stable raw material supply for alumina production [1][24]. - The acquisition of Yun Aluminum has enhanced the company's position in the green aluminum sector, with the green electricity ratio in electrolytic aluminum production reaching 45.2% in 2023 [2][41]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial net profits in the coming years, with projected net profits of 12.717 billion yuan, 15.377 billion yuan, and 17.414 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the only international large aluminum company with a complete industrial chain, covering bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and various aluminum products [11][22]. - It has established a "3×5" industrial development pattern, integrating core main industries, core sub-industries, supporting industries, collaborative industries, and green industries [1][22]. 2. Bauxite and Alumina - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 60% for alumina, with a total alumina production capacity of 22.26 million tons as of the end of 2023 [2][29]. - The alumina production is supported by abundant bauxite resources, ensuring stable raw material supply [2][29]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum - The company has significantly increased its electrolytic aluminum production from 3.86 million tons in 2021 to 6.79 million tons in 2023, aided by the acquisition of Yun Aluminum [2][41]. - The electrolytic aluminum production is primarily located in regions with abundant coal and electricity resources, enhancing production efficiency [41][42]. 4. Energy Sector - The company has a promising outlook in the renewable energy sector, with steady growth in installed capacity for wind and solar energy [3][35]. - Coal production has also seen a steady increase, with a total coal output of 13.05 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.51% [3][32]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth in the coming years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 9, and 8 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4][47]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong resource security and operational flexibility, making it a favorable investment opportunity as aluminum prices rise [4][47].