Core Viewpoint - The report from Christoph Rieger, head of interest rates and credit research at Deutsche Bank, expresses caution regarding the U.S. Treasury yields and the uncertain impact of Trump's "beautiful plan" on the U.S. debt market [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields have slightly retreated, influenced by a decline in long-term Treasury yields [1] - The rebound in U.S. Treasury yields is met with caution due to the fragile economic recovery [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - There is uncertainty about whether Trump's tax plan will lead to a "Truss moment" for U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The reference to the "Truss moment" highlights the global investor reaction to significant fiscal changes, as seen with former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's tax cuts and deregulation [1]

Beneficiaries - High-income individuals will see an average tax reduction of approximately $2,800 by 2026, with over two-thirds of the total tax cuts benefiting those earning $217,000 or more annually. Individuals earning $1.1 million or more will receive nearly a quarter of the total tax cuts [2] - Families with children will have their child tax credit increased by $500 to $2,500 until 2028, but an estimated 4.5 million children may not qualify due to new requirements. Children under 8 will receive $1,000 to help parents open "growth and investment accounts" known as "MAGA" savings accounts [2] - Car buyers will be allowed to temporarily deduct up to $10,000 in auto loan interest when purchasing American-made vehicles [2] - Overtime workers will not be taxed on their overtime pay if the bill passes, aligning it with regular wages that are subject to federal and state income taxes, Social Security, and Medicare withholdings [2] - Service industry workers will benefit as tips will not be taxed under the new legislation, with unreported tip income potentially amounting to $23 billion according to a 2018 report by the Treasury Department's Office of Tax Administration [2] Victims - Individuals earning less than $50,000 will face losses of about $700, with those earning between $17,000 and $51,000 losing more than $1,000 due to cuts in assistance programs such as Medicaid and student loans [3] - Beneficiaries of nutrition and medical assistance programs may see up to 7.6 million Americans lose health insurance over the next decade due to adjustments in Medicaid, with spending reduced by approximately $698 billion [3] - Individuals with student loan debt will be affected as the Biden administration's student loan relief measures will be repealed, limiting repayment plans to only two options and imposing significant caps on loans for parents and undergraduates [3] - The federal government is projected to see an increase in the deficit by $3.8 trillion from 2026 to 2034 due to the provisions of the bill [4] - Undocumented immigrants will face new fees for asylum applications and work permits, along with restrictions on state-funded medical assistance for undocumented children [4]

美国总统特朗普：共和党必须团结一致，支持"美丽大法案"！没有这项立法，国家将遭受巨大损失。 ...

Group 1 - The recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market is different from last month's situation, where the 10-year Treasury yield unexpectedly surged above 4.5% during a time of heightened trade war fears [2] - Current market conditions show a weakening expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the Fed may not cut rates until December, which contributes to rising Treasury yields [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.53%, and the long-term bond ETF TLT hit its lowest point since November 2023, indicating a significant decline in bond prices [2] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" is projected to create a $3.7 trillion deficit over the next decade, raising annual deficits to over 7% of GDP, which could negatively impact Treasury bonds [3] - Domestic institutions have differing views on U.S. Treasuries; while some see risks due to potential debt expansion from tax cuts, others believe the U.S. has sufficient safety mechanisms to mitigate short-term default risks [3][4] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. has never formally defaulted on its sovereign debt, and current conditions suggest that the market may be overestimating debt risks [3][4]

Core Points - The "Beautiful Bill" proposed by President Trump combines tax cuts, immigration reform, and various domestic priorities into a single legislative measure [1] - The House Republican leadership aims to finalize the bill by July 4, aligning with Treasury Secretary's request to include debt ceiling increases in the proposal [2] Tax Provisions - The bill includes a 5% remittance tax aimed at funding border security and introduces new refundable credits for verified U.S. remitters [3] - It proposes significant changes to clean energy tax credits, including the termination of various tax incentives for solar energy and hydrogen production [3][4] - The bill extends provisions from the 2017 Trump tax law, increasing estate and gift tax exemption limits and modifying the SALT deduction cap to $30,000 for individuals [3][4] Healthcare and AI Regulation - The bill is projected to reduce federal healthcare spending by $715 billion over ten years, potentially resulting in 13.7 million Americans losing healthcare coverage [6] - It proposes a 10-year suspension of most state-level regulations on artificial intelligence, which may create conflicts under Senate rules [6] SALT Deduction Controversy - The proposed $30,000 cap on SALT deductions has faced opposition from Republican lawmakers from blue states, raising concerns about political risks in their districts [7] Agricultural Provisions - The bill includes reforms to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), shifting costs to states and incorporating key bipartisan agricultural provisions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed "big beautiful bill" by President Trump is expected to be larger than tariffs and aims to be the largest tax cut in U.S. history [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Legislative Efforts**: President Trump praised Senate Majority Leader McConnell for his work on legislation, indicating strong support for the proposed bill [1] - **Political Opposition**: Trump criticized Democrats for attempting to obstruct the bill, warning that their success could lead to a 58% tax increase [1] - **Economic Impact**: The proposed spending bill is positioned as a significant tax reduction measure, potentially reshaping the economic landscape [1]