周三（12月10日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元跌超0.6%，在美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会结束后刷新日低 至155.80日元，日内持续走低，跌幅从北京时间03:46（鲍威尔新闻发布会开始之初）变得陡峭。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，美元兑日元跌至154.46，为11月17日以来最低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The narrowing of interest rate differentials may be a potential trigger for the decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate, with expectations of faster rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and quicker rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the next 12 months [1] Group 1 - Eurizon SLJ Capital highlights the significant scale of yen carry trades, indicating a notable risk of sudden unwinding of these trades [1] - The conservative target price for the USD/JPY currency pair over the next 2-3 years is set at 125 by Eurizon [1]

（责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，12月2日，美元兑日元日内涨0.34%站上156。 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，12月1日，美元兑日元跌0.7%至155.06，创10月10日以来最大跌幅。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月1日，美元兑日元最新下跌0.46%，报155.45。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

新华财经北京11月28日电（王姝睿）亚洲交易时段，美元兑日元于156.37附近窄幅震荡。日本财政担忧 与全球风险偏好回升共同施压日元，东京通胀数据短暂提振汇率，但难以提供长期支撑。 虽然日本央行加息预期理论上利好日元，但投资者持续担忧政府大规模经济刺激计划导致财政状况恶 化，这正是近期日本国债收益率飙升的关键诱因。日本政府为推进经济刺激方案而计划增加新的债券发 行规模，令投资者重新审视日本的债务可持续性。此外，市场对美联储降息预期及俄乌和平协议前景的 乐观情绪，共同营造了风险偏好氛围，持续削弱避险货币日元的吸引力。不过，鉴于市场对政府干预日 元贬值的预期升温，且美联储鸽派预期令美元难以有效上涨，美元兑日元的上升空间亦可能受到制约。 美元指数日内走势依然疲软，尽管小幅反弹0.1%至99.65，试图在连续五个交易日下跌后企稳，但整体 弱势格局未改。市场对美联储将于12月进一步降息的预期持续升温，推动美元承压。若当前趋势延续， 美元指数本周有望录得自7月底以来的最大单周跌幅。 数据显示，11月东京核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，略超预期并持续位于日本央行2%的目标之上，这为日元带 来了短暂支撑。同时工业产出出现超预期回 ...

公允价值修复，美元兑日元将反弹 摩根士丹利包括Matthew Hornbach在内的策略师在周日的一份报告中指出，当前美元兑日元的定价与基本面存在偏离。这一判断的核心逻辑在于 美国国债收益率的下行趋势，预计这将推动汇率向公允价值回归。 根据该行的具体预测，美元兑日元将在2026年第一季度跌至140左右。但这一升值趋势可能只是阶段性的。策略师们预计，随着美国经济复苏，套 利交易的需求将重新被激活，从而在明年下半年再次对日元构成下行压力。该行预计，到2026年年底，美元兑日元将反弹至147左右。 官方高度关注与干预风险 在日元汇率徘徊在157附近的背景下，市场投资者正密切评估官方进行市场干预的风险。日本财务大臣片山皋月及其他官员近期已表达了对日元疲 软的担忧。片山皋月特别提到，干预是可选方案之一，尽管其此番言论目前对市场的实际影响有限。 摩根士丹利策略师预测，随着美国经济放缓迹象日益明显，如果美联储在此背景下实施连续降息，日元兑美元汇率有望在未来几个月内升值近 10%。 该行指出，目前美元兑日元汇率已脱离公允价值。如果这一关系得以修复，随着美国国债收益率下降拉低公允价值，美元兑日元预计将在2026年 第一季度出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains near a ten-month high, driven by policy divergence and economic fundamentals, with the US maintaining high interest rates while Japan continues its ultra-loose monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, with a 32.8% probability of a rate cut in December due to persistent inflation concerns [1] - The Bank of Japan maintains a near-zero interest rate of 0.5%, despite core CPI falling to 1.8%, indicating a commitment to continued monetary easing to support economic recovery [1] - The interest rate differential between US and Japanese 10-year government bonds is 3.2 percentage points, attracting significant arbitrage funds into USD assets [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The US economy shows resilience with an unemployment rate stable at 3.6%, supporting the USD index above 100 [1] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q3, marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth, contributing to a technical recession [1] - Japan's exports fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October, with weak performance in automotive and electronic components, putting further pressure on the JPY [1] - Global risk aversion has decreased, weakening the traditional safe-haven appeal of the JPY, as indicated by the VIX index dropping to a yearly low [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY has been in an upward channel since April, with a recent peak of 157.42, currently fluctuating between 156 and 158 [2] - Technical indicators show a bullish pattern, with moving averages aligned positively and MACD indicators expanding, although RSI is nearing overbought territory [2] - Key resistance is at the 2025 high of 158.87, while short-term support is between 155.00 and 156.80, with market attention on potential intervention by the Bank of Japan near 158.50 [2] Group 4: Trade Impact - The depreciation of the JPY increases procurement costs for Chinese exporters to Japan, leading to a 5.1% year-on-year decline in exports from January to October 2025 [2] - Labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances are particularly affected, with significant revenue losses when converting JPY-denominated export income [2] - Conversely, the lower JPY benefits Chinese importers, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in imports from Japan in October 2025, aiding in technology upgrades and cost control [2]

每经AI快讯，11月24日，美元兑日元达到当日高点，上涨0.4%，至157.08。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...