智通财经APP获悉，日本执政党自民党下任党首的热门候选人高市早苗的最新表态中，她试图与一年前 发表的鸽派言论划清界限，强调日本央行的货币政策实施应由其自主决定。周三与其他四位候选人辩论 时，高市明确表示："就经济政策而言，政府有责任决定财政和货币政策的方向，而货币政策的实施手 段应由日本央行决定。这是我去年讲话的前提。" 一些分析人士指出，高市早苗若重申去年那种鸽派立场，将因政策倾向压低利率而可能进一步推低日元 汇率，使美元兑日元突破150这一重要关口，并加剧由进口价格上涨带动的通胀压力，因此她很难再重 复去年的政策基调。 这一表态与去年自民党总裁选举期间她称"提高利率是愚蠢的"形成鲜明对比——当时该言论被解读为若 其当选可能延缓日本央行政策正常化进程，最终她在决选中落败，但如今被视为今年选举领跑者，而这 场选举或将决定日本下一任首相归属。 根据选举安排，自民党将于10月4日投票选出下一任党魁，但因该党在议会两院均未获多数席位，获胜 者能否最终出任首相仍存不确定性。 市场对高市竞选动态高度关注，因日本央行加息预期持续升温，两名董事会成员对上周维持利率不变的 决定持异议，更强化了最早10月30日可能再次加息的猜 ...

就在传统资产管理巨头们坚持看多日元汇率之际，聚焦于高杠杆与多元化资产配置策略的那些对冲基金机构却正 在积极押注日元将进一步走弱，可谓大幅加剧了日本国内政治不确定性、日本央行重启加息预期升温以及即将抛 售ETF资产之际，全球金融市场围绕日本主权货币走向的"多空拉锯"，日元汇率的未来趋势愈发扑朔迷离。 据了解，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的每周数据流显示，本月买入日元这一货币的传统资产管理公司与做空 日元的杠杆对冲基金之间的分歧比例加速扩大，这种差距一举创下自2007年以来的最宽阔多空比例水平。 这种历史罕见的背离凸显出全球投资机构以及一些聚焦于外汇市场的投资者们在全球第三大交易货币上进行投资 与投机操作的极度复杂性，因为日本国内政治不确定性使得日本央行的货币政策路径变得更加模糊，尤其是对于 后者而言——当前利率市场上押注日本央行10月重启加息进程的交易员越来越多，但是超过60%利率期货交易员 仍然押注明年1月重启加息。 此外，日本这一美国长期以来的贸易合作伙伴以及广义上的同盟国，也被彻底卷入美国总统唐纳德.特朗普发起的 面向全球贸易战，持续打压了市场对该国资产的看涨情绪以及日元昔日备受推崇的避险地位。 在 ...

"老师我亏损了，套单了，行情会涨吗？会跌吗？我该怎么办？"每一天我总能遇到无数的投资者询问这些 问题，或者是一个人操作导致的亏损，也或是有指导老师导致的亏损. 小时线上多空的轮转比较明显，前三天还是走的上行趋势通道，而后两天直接回吐所以涨幅重新构筑了新 的下行通道出来，那么3350这个位置就是我们今天继续看空的关键点位，毕竟4小时和日线都是跌破了我 们的关键支撑，那么转换思路看空就是必然了！ 本周除美联储外，加拿大央行也将于周三召开货币政策会议，预计将维持利率不变，日本央行则将在周三 晚些时候召开会议。 周二：美国消费者信心指数周三：ADP就业数据，美国初步GDP，加拿大央行货币政策决定，美国成屋签 约销售，美联储货币政策决定，日本央行货币政策决定 周四：美国PCE物价指数，每周初请失业金人数，周五：美国非农就业报告，ISM制造业PMI 对于今天黄金走势的看法！ 黄金上周五出乎所有人的预料，延续弱势下跌，触及我们上周说到的4小时趋势线3335一线之后直接下跌 走弱，那么对于目前的趋势上来看，趋势偏空无反弹，那么弱势就将还会持续，只有跌幅到一定的位置筑 底之后才会有买盘的进场，而本周初则延续看空即可！ 但殊归通 ...

Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The U.S. and Japan have reached a significant trade agreement, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and a 15% tariff on imports to the U.S. [1] - The agreement is expected to create thousands of jobs in the U.S. and open up Japanese markets for U.S. products, including automobiles and agricultural goods [1] Group 2: Japanese Market Conditions - The Japanese economy is experiencing a phase of moderate recovery alongside structural pressures, with improvements in growth momentum but a need for further consolidation [2] - Despite inflation being above target levels, real wages are in a declining trend, raising concerns about the sustainability of the wage-price cycle [2] - Japanese corporate earnings remain relatively robust, providing support for the overall performance of the Japanese stock market [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain interest rates during its meetings in May and June 2025, linking future rate hikes to economic growth and inflation forecasts [3] - Japan's core inflation rate exceeded expectations, bolstering the Bank of Japan's confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target [3] - The Japanese stock market showed strong performance in Q2, outperforming the S&P 500 index, driven by a combination of economic recovery and easing geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4: Domestic Issues and Market Stability - Rising rice prices in Japan have become a significant issue, affecting public trust in the government and prompting measures to stabilize prices [4] - The Japanese stock market has stabilized and rebounded from volatility caused by U.S. tariff policies, returning to levels seen in March or earlier [4] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has been fluctuating between 140-145, influenced by monetary policy expectations and trade tensions [4]

日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济和物价面临强烈的下行压力，日本央行在通过降息支持经济方面空间 有限，目前短期利率仍维持在0.5%。 ...

Group 1 - Japan's largest business lobbying group reports that member companies' employees have secured over 5% salary increases for two consecutive years, indicating a sustained upward trend in wages amid a tightening labor market [1][4] - The average salary increase for 620,000 employees from 97 major companies in Japan is reported at 5.38%, slightly lower than last year's 5.58%, but significantly higher than the 20-year average increase of approximately 2.3% [1][4] - 11 out of 17 industries in Japan have seen salary increases higher than last year, with transportation, electronics, and chemicals leading the way, while traditional manufacturing sectors like automotive and steel have experienced more moderate increases [4][6] Group 2 - Over 50% of Japanese companies are facing severe regular employee shortages, contributing to the upward pressure on wages [6] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise to 3.4%, marking a two-year high, as inflation has remained at or above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three consecutive years [6] - The recent rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields, particularly the 40-year bond reaching 3.675%, is constraining the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates [7]