Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have collectively surged, reaching new historical highs, with gold breaking the $4,400 per ounce mark for the first time, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 67% [1]. Group 1: Gold Market - As of December 22, spot and futures gold prices have continued to rise, with London gold reaching $4,401.274 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 67% [1]. - COMEX gold has stabilized around $4,430 per ounce, also setting a new historical high [3]. - Domestic gold prices have been adjusted upwards, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price reaching 1,368 RMB per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.59% [5]. Group 2: Silver and Other Precious Metals - On December 22, both spot and futures silver prices have hit new historical highs, with London silver at $69.229 per ounce, showing a daily increase of 3.25% [8]. - COMEX silver is reported at $69.375 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.79% [8]. - Spot platinum has also seen significant gains, reaching $2,055.7 per ounce, the first time it has surpassed $2,000 since 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 127% [8]. Group 3: Market Influences - Citic Securities indicates that the unexpected cooling of the U.S. November CPI has led to an adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, contributing to the strength of precious metals [9]. - Galaxy Futures notes that the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on future monetary policy, combined with unexpectedly mild U.S. inflation data, has reinforced a trend of economic slowdown, leading to a cautious optimism regarding future interest rate cuts [10]. - The overall market sentiment is influenced by abundant liquidity and strong supply constraints, driving commodity prices to challenge historical highs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair has shown increased short-term selling pressure, influenced by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and market expectations regarding a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Employment Data - The ADP employment report revealed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, contrasting with an increase of 47,000 jobs in October, which was revised from an initial estimate of 42,000 [3]. - This decline is the largest monthly drop since the beginning of 2023 and significantly underperformed market expectations of a 5,000 job increase, indicating potential signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting is nearly 89%, up from 63% a month ago [4]. - This shift in expectations reflects growing concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which is impacting the value of the U.S. dollar [4]. Group 3: Japanese Central Bank Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are providing support for the yen [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned that the central bank will consider the pros and cons of rate hikes in the next policy meeting, suggesting an increasing likelihood of adjustments to monetary policy in the near future [5]. Group 4: Market Influences on USD/JPY - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. economic data performance, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, Bank of Japan policy direction, and interest rate differentials between the two countries [5]. - Upcoming U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data may either alleviate short-term downward pressure on the dollar if it exceeds expectations or exacerbate it if it indicates further weakness in the labor market [5].

新华财经北京11月28日电（王姝睿）亚洲交易时段，美元兑日元于156.37附近窄幅震荡。日本财政担忧 与全球风险偏好回升共同施压日元，东京通胀数据短暂提振汇率，但难以提供长期支撑。 虽然日本央行加息预期理论上利好日元，但投资者持续担忧政府大规模经济刺激计划导致财政状况恶 化，这正是近期日本国债收益率飙升的关键诱因。日本政府为推进经济刺激方案而计划增加新的债券发 行规模，令投资者重新审视日本的债务可持续性。此外，市场对美联储降息预期及俄乌和平协议前景的 乐观情绪，共同营造了风险偏好氛围，持续削弱避险货币日元的吸引力。不过，鉴于市场对政府干预日 元贬值的预期升温，且美联储鸽派预期令美元难以有效上涨，美元兑日元的上升空间亦可能受到制约。 美元指数日内走势依然疲软，尽管小幅反弹0.1%至99.65，试图在连续五个交易日下跌后企稳，但整体 弱势格局未改。市场对美联储将于12月进一步降息的预期持续升温，推动美元承压。若当前趋势延续， 美元指数本周有望录得自7月底以来的最大单周跌幅。 数据显示，11月东京核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，略超预期并持续位于日本央行2%的目标之上，这为日元带 来了短暂支撑。同时工业产出出现超预期回 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations due to mixed signals from economic data and central bank policies, with the yen showing strength but lacking strong bullish momentum [1][2] - Tokyo's inflation data has accelerated, raising expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten monetary policy, yet uncertainty remains regarding the timing of potential rate hikes due to anticipated fiscal stimulus measures from the government [1][2] - The recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has diminished demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency, while the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to support the dollar [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY exchange rate is stabilizing above the 153.30 level, which has turned into a support zone, indicating potential for short-term upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the 154.80 area could lead to further gains towards the psychological level of 155.00, while a drop below 154.00 would focus attention on support levels between 153.25 and 153.00 [3]

Group 1 - The Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) aims for at least a 5% wage increase in the upcoming negotiations, with a target of a 3% rise in base salary [1][2] - Last year's negotiations resulted in an average overall wage increase of 5.25% by 2025, indicating a consistent push for wage growth [1] - The Japanese government is under pressure to maintain wage growth momentum, as stagnant real wages could lead to public dissatisfaction and impact monetary policy [1][2] Group 2 - Despite achieving the largest nominal wage increase in over 30 years, real wages have not kept pace due to ongoing inflation, with only two months of real wage growth in the past year [2][3] - The government is expected to implement measures to support wage growth and alleviate inflationary pressures, including enhancing small business profitability [2] - There is a widening wage growth gap between large and small enterprises, with small subcontractors struggling to pass on higher costs to clients [2][3] Group 3 - Rengo's goal for small and medium-sized enterprises is to increase employee wages by at least 6%, with last year's average increase for smaller firms at 4.65% [3] - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the importance of wage growth for achieving a healthy economic cycle, which is a prerequisite for tightening monetary policy [3] - Economists predict that the upcoming wage negotiations will yield lower increases than the previous year, with an average expected increase of 4.81% [4]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor, Shinichi Uchida, highlighted positive signs in the economy, including steady consumer recovery, moderate growth in capital expenditure, and overall improvement in corporate confidence [1][2] - Uchida emphasized the importance of data-driven decision-making and the high uncertainty surrounding overseas economic conditions, trade policies, and price trends [1][2] Economic Indicators - Japan's economy is experiencing a "moderate recovery," but there are also signs of weakness [1] - The latest Tankan survey indicates that overall business confidence is "robust," particularly among some manufacturers due to reduced uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Uchida noted that "potential inflation may stagnate for a period before gradually accelerating" [1] - The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price trends align with their forecasts, maintaining a gradual approach to exiting ultra-loose monetary policy [1] External Risks - Uchida warned of high uncertainty in external economic developments and stressed the need to be cautious about the impact of global trade policies on the economy, financial markets, and foreign exchange [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shift in the stance of the leading candidate for the next president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, regarding monetary policy, emphasizing that the implementation should be decided by the Bank of Japan [1][2] - Takaichi's recent statements contrast sharply with her previous dovish remarks from last year, where she labeled interest rate hikes as "foolish," which were interpreted as a potential delay in the normalization of the Bank of Japan's policies [1] - The market is closely monitoring Takaichi's campaign dynamics due to rising expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, with speculation of a possible increase as early as October 30 [1] Group 2 - Takaichi expressed caution regarding potential interest rate increases, noting that significantly higher rates could deter corporate investment in new technologies [1] - The Japanese government debt structure is relatively stable, with over 90% of government bonds held by domestic investors, making it one of the most stable bond markets globally [2] - The upcoming election on October 4 will determine the next party leader, but uncertainty remains about whether the winner can ultimately become the Prime Minister due to the party's lack of a majority in both houses of parliament [2]

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence in views on the Japanese yen between traditional asset management firms, which remain bullish, and hedge funds, which are betting on further depreciation of the yen, leading to increased political uncertainty in Japan and speculation about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy direction [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ratio of traditional asset management companies buying yen to hedge funds shorting yen has reached its widest level since 2007, indicating a complex investment landscape influenced by domestic political uncertainty and BOJ's monetary policy ambiguity [1][6]. - As of mid-September, hedge funds increased their net short positions on the yen to 58,811 contracts, close to historical highs, while traditional asset managers held 71,162 contracts betting on yen appreciation, reflecting a significant divergence in market sentiment [6][7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The BOJ decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with a 7-2 vote, marking the first dissenting voices since the current governor took office, suggesting a rising faction within the BOJ advocating for rate hikes [4][8]. - Despite the decision to keep rates unchanged, there is speculation about a potential 25 basis point rate hike in the near future, with market focus shifting to the upcoming Tankan report on October 1 [7][8]. Group 3: Political and Trade Influences - Japan's political uncertainty and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy complicate the assessment of the BOJ's monetary policy path, contributing to the divergence in views among investment firms [4][7]. - The ongoing trade tensions initiated by the U.S. have dampened market sentiment towards Japanese assets and the yen's status as a safe-haven currency [4][5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the common concerns of investors regarding losses and market predictions, emphasizing the importance of profitability in investments [1] - It highlights the ongoing search for solutions to recover losses, indicating a persistent struggle among investors [1] Group 2 - A risk data warning is issued for the week, noting significant upcoming economic events including the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meetings, as well as key economic indicators such as consumer confidence and employment data [3] - The article outlines a schedule of important economic releases, including the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report, which could impact market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The analysis of gold prices indicates a bearish trend, with a significant drop after reaching a key support level, suggesting continued weakness in the market [5] - The article identifies specific price levels for trading strategies, recommending short positions around 3350 with targets set at 3325 and 3310 [7]

Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The U.S. and Japan have reached a significant trade agreement, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and a 15% tariff on imports to the U.S. [1] - The agreement is expected to create thousands of jobs in the U.S. and open up Japanese markets for U.S. products, including automobiles and agricultural goods [1] Group 2: Japanese Market Conditions - The Japanese economy is experiencing a phase of moderate recovery alongside structural pressures, with improvements in growth momentum but a need for further consolidation [2] - Despite inflation being above target levels, real wages are in a declining trend, raising concerns about the sustainability of the wage-price cycle [2] - Japanese corporate earnings remain relatively robust, providing support for the overall performance of the Japanese stock market [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain interest rates during its meetings in May and June 2025, linking future rate hikes to economic growth and inflation forecasts [3] - Japan's core inflation rate exceeded expectations, bolstering the Bank of Japan's confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target [3] - The Japanese stock market showed strong performance in Q2, outperforming the S&P 500 index, driven by a combination of economic recovery and easing geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4: Domestic Issues and Market Stability - Rising rice prices in Japan have become a significant issue, affecting public trust in the government and prompting measures to stabilize prices [4] - The Japanese stock market has stabilized and rebounded from volatility caused by U.S. tariff policies, returning to levels seen in March or earlier [4] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has been fluctuating between 140-145, influenced by monetary policy expectations and trade tensions [4]