Group 1 - UBS emphasizes that the dollar's safe-haven status may be severely undermined if concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence arise, benefiting currencies like the yen and Swiss franc [1] - Danske Bank predicts that as the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, the dollar will be pressured, with the euro expected to rise from 1.1340 to 1.22 against the dollar within 12 months [1] - Deutsche Bank warns that uncertainty in U.S. policy could lead to a long-term decline in the dollar, citing recent comments from Trump as a potential threat to the Fed's independence [1] Group 2 - Swissquote Bank suggests that news from U.S.-China talks may raise hopes for easing trade tensions, boosting risk appetite and potentially leading to a dollar recovery [1] - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is unlikely to provide much support for the dollar, with options markets indicating a preference for betting on a dollar decline [1] - Wells Fargo is more bearish on the dollar for the second half of the year, anticipating weaker U.S. economic data, actual interest rate cuts by the Fed, and renewed concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 3 - ING expects limited impact on the dollar from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, as market expectations align with Powell's recent statements, with a potential for a mild rebound if Trump continues to signal positively on trade [2] - Monex Europe notes that a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, focusing on inflation risks in the coming months, could provide some relief for the pressured dollar [2]

Group 1 - Concerns about the dollar's loss of safe-haven appeal are increasing among forex strategists, with predictions of further declines in the global reserve currency over the next year amid rising recession fears [1] - Since Trump's return to the White House, the dollar has fallen nearly 9% against a basket of major currencies, with investor sentiment negatively impacted by his inconsistent tariff policies [1] - A survey of 83 respondents revealed that over 55% expressed concerns about the dollar's safe-haven status, a significant increase from about one-third in the previous survey [1] Group 2 - Nearly 80% of strategists expect little change in the net short positions of the dollar in the CFTC by the end of May, indicating some potential for a dollar rebound [2] - The median forecast suggests the euro will rise to 1.14 against the dollar in six months and 1.16 in twelve months, marking the largest monthly adjustment since November 2010 [2] - Despite expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, decision-makers have indicated they are not in a hurry to lower rates [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve could severely undermine the dollar's safe-haven status, with alternative currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting from the current situation [3] - The yen and Swiss franc have both risen nearly 10% this year, with economists predicting further increases of 2.8% and 0.4% respectively over the next twelve months [3]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the U.S. dollar's status as a safe haven have increased significantly, with over 55% of respondents in a recent survey expressing worries, up from about one-third in the previous survey [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The majority of market participants currently lack a clear alternative to the U.S. dollar despite rising concerns [1] - Analysts indicate that the focus has shifted from stimulus to long-term fiscal concerns, impacting the dollar's attractiveness [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Standard Chartered's global G10 FX research head, Steve Englander, emphasizes heightened worries about the dollar's future [1] - Wells Fargo Securities' macro strategist, Erik Nelson, predicts a bearish outlook for the dollar in the second half of the year, citing weak U.S. economic data and potential Fed rate cuts [1] - UBS's senior U.S. economist, Brian Rose, highlights that the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining the dollar's safe haven status [1] Group 3: Alternative Safe Havens - The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, serving as alternative safe havens [1]