交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-01 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅 震荡，技术性震荡整理，七月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期或 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-130，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存104.31万吨，上周99.84万吨，环比增加4.48%，去年同期134.59万吨， 同比减少22.5%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4100至4200区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡 收跌，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差147，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存642.24万吨，上周657.49万吨，环比增减少2.32%，去年同期611.2万 吨，同比增5.08%。偏空 4.盘面： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US trade tariffs, and South American soybean harvests. The soybean market may experience range - bound oscillations. Specifically, the M2509 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of the soybean market is influenced by multiple factors. The US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff negotiations are the main focuses of the market [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240. The analysis of soybean meal and soybeans includes aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, and expected trends [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have increased since May. The short - term trend of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The profit of pig farming in China has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May, but the supply shortage supports the post - festival price of soybean meal. The short - term trend of soybean meal is oscillating weakly [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the short - term oscillation of soybean meal [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the transaction average price, trading volume, and price differences of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 14 to July 23, as well as the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal during the same period [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: It records the changes in the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal from July 11 to July 23 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: They show the supply - demand balance data of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the data of harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop soybean exports, crushing volume, and soybean output in Brazil and Argentina in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: It shows the monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025, indicating that the arrival volume reached a high in June [44]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of soybean meal have decreased, and the funds have flowed in. The main short positions of soybeans have increased, and the funds have flowed out [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and South American soybean harvest. Both soybeans and soybean meal are expected to remain range - bound in the short term [10][11]. - The price of US soybeans is affected by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the weather in the soybean - growing areas. The overall good weather in the US soybean - growing areas suppresses the upward movement of the price, while the uncertainty of the weather and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war determine the short - and medium - term trends of the market [33]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are affected by factors like the arrival of imported soybeans, oil mill operations, and downstream demand. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement of prices [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to US soybeans. The US soybean market has bottomed out and rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean planting and growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July. The soybean inventory in domestic oil mills has continued to rise since May Day, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has continued to rise in July. The soybean market has returned to a fluctuating pattern due to the decline in US soybean prices [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly fluctuating pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - growing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain fluctuating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean - growing areas is still variable in the short term, which is bullish, but it is expected to be normal in the short term, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Import Cost**: US soybeans have bottomed out and rebounded. The Sino - US tariff negotiation and the weather in the US soybean - growing areas are still uncertain, which is bullish. The import cost is expected to fluctuate, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, but the oil mill's pressing volume remains high, which is bearish. The demand is expected to be weak in the short term, and the oil mill's operation is expected to decline from a high level, being bullish [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has weakened, which is bearish. The market transaction is expected to remain at a low level, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills remains at a low level in the same period of history, which is bullish. With the increase in upstream operation, the inventory of oil mills is expected to continue to rise, being bearish [9]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4000 - 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: Wait and see [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is oscillating upwards, supported by uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market and technical buying. However, high imports of soybeans in July and weak spot prices are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract expected to fluctuate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market is rising, supported by the rebound of the oil and fat market and technical buying. The domestic soybean market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market. But the increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with the M2509 contract expected to range between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The market is influenced by various factors, with the A2509 contract expected to range between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is relatively strong in the short - term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, and soybean meal inventories in oil mills also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean market has oscillated downward recently due to the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills support short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will remain oscillating in the short - term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 176, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 88.62 tons, a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 111, indicating a premium to the futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 657.49 tons, a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From July 9th to 18th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From July 10th to 18th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward - trending oscillation [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From July 8th to 18th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods from 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the data of the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, inventory, and exports [41]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection Data**: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Oil mill soybean inventories increased slightly, soybean meal inventories continued to rise, unexecuted contracts decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year [45][47][49]. - **Pig - Related Data**: The inventories of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices rebounded recently, while piglet prices remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. Domestic pig - farming profits rebounded from a low level [53][55][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US tariff negotiations. Domestic soybean meal is influenced by the increase in imported soybean arrivals and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term range - bound situation, affected by factors such as the increase in imported soybean arrivals, the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US suppresses the upward space. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills increased from low levels. The soybean market was affected by the decline in US soybeans and fluctuated downwards [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weak - fluctuating pattern [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills supported short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for clear information on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppressing the price of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices**: The report provides the trading average prices and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 3 to July 14, as well as the prices of soybean futures and spot soybeans from July 4 to July 14 [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and No.2) and soybean meal from July 2 to July 14 are presented, along with their daily changes [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) are detailed, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate at different times [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including data on harvested area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [40]. 5. Position Data - Not provided Other Related Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [41]. - The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at oil mills continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts at oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term备货 demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume at oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean futures profit fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The live pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly [56]. - The domestic live pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, including the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the supply and demand of domestic soybeans and soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the growth of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10][11][13]. - The soybean meal market is also in a volatile pattern. The short - term demand for soybean meal is weak, but the low inventory of oil mills and the uncertainty of US soybean weather support the price. The market is mainly focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good weather in US soybean - growing regions suppresses the price. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall of US soybeans [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. The soybean meal market is in a weak - volatile pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainty in US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: The US soybean harvest area, yield, and output have changed slightly. The期末库存 of old - crop soybeans has decreased, and the export and crushing volumes have remained relatively stable. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also shown certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The planting, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other growth stages of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing different progress [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 are also presented, showing different rates compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and good weather, showing a weak - volatile trend. The weather in US soybean - growing regions and the progress of Sino - US tariff wars are the main factors affecting the market [33]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has increased due to the global tariff war initiated by the US. The US soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [33]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans has reached a high in June, with the peak postponed and the overall volume increasing [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, and the demand for forward stocking has increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased year - on - year [37][39][41]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement of domestic soybean meal has slightly decreased, and the pick - up volume has declined from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has rebounded recently, while the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [46][48][52]. 3.7 Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, affected by the relatively stable trends of US soybeans and domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a stage of shock adjustment, and the soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for new guidance [65]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal market has rebounded this week, affected by US soybeans and increased domestic supply. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a technical rebound stage, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the supply - demand pattern of US soybeans and soybean meal [67]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, the progress of Sino - US trade relations and tariff wars, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [69]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement [70]. - The less important factors are macro - economic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine conflict [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. soybean market is affected by Trump's tariff war and technical adjustments, waiting for the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as increased imports of soybeans and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by factors like increased imports of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and is also in a weak and volatile state [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on U.S. soybean planting and growth, imports of soybeans, and China - U.S. tariff negotiations [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills rebounded from low levels, and the soybean market declined due to the fall of U.S. soybeans [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - festival prices. With the weakening pressure of the China - U.S. tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills supported short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - U.S. tariff war made soybean meal maintain short - term volatility, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - U.S. tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely to Rise**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventories at oil mills, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean - producing area weather [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - **Likely to Rise**: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Likely to Fall**: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2790, with a basis of - 164, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 822,400 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 95, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 6.364 million tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10]. Other Information - The import volume of soybeans arriving in China reached a high in June, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal at oil mills continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, and the demand for forward stocking weakened [44][45][47]. - The cost of importing Brazilian soybeans increased slightly, and the profit of imported soybeans on the disk fluctuated slightly [51]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs rebounded recently, while the price of piglets remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level [53][55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable growing weather and high expectations of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, soybean meal prices initially dropped and then rebounded, influenced by the US soybean market and technical adjustments. With an increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices, the market is expected to enter a range - bound pattern. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market is in a downward trend due to good growing conditions and high - yield expectations. In the domestic market, soybeans are trading in a narrow range, affected by the increase in imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the US has led to a relatively strong performance in the US soybean market, which is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on soybean planting and growth conditions, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories have rebounded from low levels. Recently, the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall in the US soybean market. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports post - holiday price expectations. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - Low oil - mill soybean meal inventories support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war mean that soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further clarity on South American soybean yields and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the continued expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: The continued expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 million tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 89, indicating a premium to futures. Oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 million tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Trading Data**: From June 30 to July 9, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed certain fluctuations, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed [15]. - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: Include the sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38] 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆主产区天气良好和技术性调整，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-187，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5 ...