Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US tariff negotiations. Domestic soybean meal is influenced by the increase in imported soybean arrivals and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term range - bound situation, affected by factors such as the increase in imported soybean arrivals, the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US suppresses the upward space. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills increased from low levels. The soybean market was affected by the decline in US soybeans and fluctuated downwards [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weak - fluctuating pattern [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills supported short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for clear information on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppressing the price of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices**: The report provides the trading average prices and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 3 to July 14, as well as the prices of soybean futures and spot soybeans from July 4 to July 14 [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and No.2) and soybean meal from July 2 to July 14 are presented, along with their daily changes [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) are detailed, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate at different times [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including data on harvested area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [40]. 5. Position Data - Not provided Other Related Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [41]. - The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at oil mills continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts at oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term备货 demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume at oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean futures profit fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The live pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly [56]. - The domestic live pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, including the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the supply and demand of domestic soybeans and soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the growth of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10][11][13]. - The soybean meal market is also in a volatile pattern. The short - term demand for soybean meal is weak, but the low inventory of oil mills and the uncertainty of US soybean weather support the price. The market is mainly focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good weather in US soybean - growing regions suppresses the price. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall of US soybeans [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. The soybean meal market is in a weak - volatile pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainty in US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: The US soybean harvest area, yield, and output have changed slightly. The期末库存 of old - crop soybeans has decreased, and the export and crushing volumes have remained relatively stable. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also shown certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The planting, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other growth stages of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing different progress [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 are also presented, showing different rates compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and good weather, showing a weak - volatile trend. The weather in US soybean - growing regions and the progress of Sino - US tariff wars are the main factors affecting the market [33]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has increased due to the global tariff war initiated by the US. The US soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [33]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans has reached a high in June, with the peak postponed and the overall volume increasing [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, and the demand for forward stocking has increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased year - on - year [37][39][41]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement of domestic soybean meal has slightly decreased, and the pick - up volume has declined from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has rebounded recently, while the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [46][48][52]. 3.7 Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, affected by the relatively stable trends of US soybeans and domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a stage of shock adjustment, and the soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for new guidance [65]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal market has rebounded this week, affected by US soybeans and increased domestic supply. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a technical rebound stage, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the supply - demand pattern of US soybeans and soybean meal [67]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, the progress of Sino - US trade relations and tariff wars, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [69]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement [70]. - The less important factors are macro - economic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine conflict [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. soybean market is affected by Trump's tariff war and technical adjustments, waiting for the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as increased imports of soybeans and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by factors like increased imports of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and is also in a weak and volatile state [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on U.S. soybean planting and growth, imports of soybeans, and China - U.S. tariff negotiations [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills rebounded from low levels, and the soybean market declined due to the fall of U.S. soybeans [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - festival prices. With the weakening pressure of the China - U.S. tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills supported short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - U.S. tariff war made soybean meal maintain short - term volatility, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - U.S. tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely to Rise**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventories at oil mills, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean - producing area weather [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - **Likely to Rise**: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Likely to Fall**: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2790, with a basis of - 164, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 822,400 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 95, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 6.364 million tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10]. Other Information - The import volume of soybeans arriving in China reached a high in June, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal at oil mills continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, and the demand for forward stocking weakened [44][45][47]. - The cost of importing Brazilian soybeans increased slightly, and the profit of imported soybeans on the disk fluctuated slightly [51]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs rebounded recently, while the price of piglets remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level [53][55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable growing weather and high expectations of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, soybean meal prices initially dropped and then rebounded, influenced by the US soybean market and technical adjustments. With an increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices, the market is expected to enter a range - bound pattern. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market is in a downward trend due to good growing conditions and high - yield expectations. In the domestic market, soybeans are trading in a narrow range, affected by the increase in imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the US has led to a relatively strong performance in the US soybean market, which is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on soybean planting and growth conditions, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories have rebounded from low levels. Recently, the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall in the US soybean market. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports post - holiday price expectations. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - Low oil - mill soybean meal inventories support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war mean that soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further clarity on South American soybean yields and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the continued expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: The continued expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 million tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 89, indicating a premium to futures. Oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 million tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Trading Data**: From June 30 to July 9, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed certain fluctuations, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed [15]. - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: Include the sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38] 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆主产区天气良好和技术性调整，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-187，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5 ...