本周四（8月21日），杰克逊霍尔央行年会将要召开。市场普遍关注美联储主席鲍威尔在该年会上发表 的讲话，特别是该讲话关于美联储未来货币政策走向的信息。 美国经济现在面临的最大风险就是不确定性。正如巴菲特先生说过的："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才 能够知道谁在裸泳"。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 JerryZang 有分析师认为，特朗普总统与鲍威尔可能在幕后达成了一些共识，因此9月重启降息是大概率事件。不 过，笔者认为，即便鲍威尔在9月议息会议上赞成降息，他也只是在权衡各种利弊后的权宜之计，未来 鲍威尔不会在降息问题上采取积极的行动。 距离鲍威尔明年5月离职还有9个月时间，而特朗普总统在此期间又很难使鲍威尔提前离任，这无疑会造 成美国经济在高利率环境下承受更长时间的负面压力，增加美国经济下行的风险，加大美国经济面临的 不确定性。 有华尔街机构认为，鲍威尔会在该年会上给市场普遍热议的美联储9月议息会议上重启降息泼冷水，甚 至有分析师开始怀疑美联储是否会在9月降息。 笔者认为，鲍威尔一段时间以来 ...

Group 1 - The core CPI in the US for July 2025 ended a five-month streak of underperformance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 0.32% [1] - The US economy is facing uncertainties, with signs of weakening consumer market momentum and cautious corporate investment, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts despite current inflation data [1] - Market expectations have shifted towards a "rate cut anticipation leading to a reinforced soft landing expectation," resulting in declines in the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index, while 10-year TIPS, 10-year Treasury yields, and US stocks have risen [1] Group 2 - The July PPI data indicates that tariff pressures may have been transmitted to US wholesalers, with a month-on-month increase of 0.95%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%, and core PPI rising by 0.92%, the highest since 2022 [2] - The impact of tariffs on wholesale, retail, and end-consumer prices remains uncertain, and the market's expectation for a September rate cut is not guaranteed due to the variability in data quality [2] - In optimistic scenarios, the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year, while in pessimistic scenarios, only once in October; looking ahead to mid-2026, a new Fed chair may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy with potential rate cuts ranging from 4 to 6 times next year [2] Group 3 - Prior to the September FOMC meeting, the dollar index and 2-year Treasury yield are expected to rise, reflecting a correction of overly optimistic rate cut expectations [3] - Following the September FOMC, market bets on rate cuts in 2026 are anticipated to increase, with concerns about the Fed's independence and debt sustainability likely to widen the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries [3] - Recent discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may enhance short-term market risk appetite, potentially leading to downward pressure on gold prices as safe-haven sentiment diminishes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate at the 4.25-4.50% range, consistent with market expectations [3] - Economic growth has shifted from a "solid pace" to a "moderate" pace, with consumer spending weakening and the housing market remaining sluggish. The Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is reported at 3.0%, primarily driven by a decrease in net imports [4] - Inflation data has shown marginal strengthening, with the June PCE price index increasing by 2.6%, surpassing expectations of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The core PCE price index also rose by 2.8%, indicating uncertainty in the inflation trajectory [5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the potential for a rate cut in September hinges on upcoming data, particularly focusing on core PCE price index trends and unemployment rates. The FOMC will closely monitor these indicators to assess economic balance [5] - There is a noted division among FOMC voting members, with two members voting against maintaining the current rate, highlighting a rare occurrence of dissent within the board. This indicates a split in perspectives among the FOMC members [6]

当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合市场预 期，也是美联储今年连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 降息无望，特朗普梦碎7月！ 此前，美国总统把批评鲍威尔当成了日常打卡，甚至放出狠话，要把鲍威尔从美联储主席的位子上拉下来。 然而，美联储此轮表态无疑让"懂王"成了热锅上的蚂蚁，毕竟急火攻心要求降息背后是赤裸裸的政治账和经济账。 一方面，中期大选即将到来，特朗普急需一个欣欣向荣的经济面来吹嘘自己进行拉票。 在这种情况下，美联储降息能够刺激市场带来股市上涨、贷款降价的大好局面，这也有助于特朗普阵营向选民吹嘘。 另一方面，如今美国联邦政府债务面临37亿美元的"国债大山"，利率每提高1%，政府每年就得多掏出近3600亿美元来还债的利息，这对财政预算无疑是个 巨大窟窿。 只是可惜，尽管特朗普各种花式施压要求降息，甚至不惜亲自前往美联储"督战"，但鲍威尔本轮依旧坚挺，可谓是直接给了"懂王"一巴掌。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上给出的理由很明确——因为特朗普。美联储发现特朗普政府的经济政策让美国经济前景的不确定性依旧很大，通胀和就业目标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's current interest rate level is deemed appropriate to address ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation, significantly reducing market expectations for a rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a vote of 9 to 2, marking a routine decision for the year [1]. - Two members, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, opposed the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, which is the first dissent since 1993 [1]. - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations for a September rate cut dropped from approximately 60% to a 50% chance [1]. Group 2: Economic Assessment - The Fed downgraded its economic outlook, stating that recent data indicates a slowdown in economic activity growth during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous assessments of robust expansion [1]. - The second quarter GDP showed an annualized growth of 3%, reversing a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, largely due to businesses importing ahead of tariffs [2]. - Consumer spending has shown the weakest growth since the pandemic, with two consecutive quarters of low performance [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Labor Market - Inflation remains slightly elevated, with certain goods directly affected by tariffs, such as toys, clothing, and electronics, experiencing significant price increases [2]. - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1%, partly due to reduced labor supply from tightened immigration policies [2]. Group 4: Future Policy Outlook - Powell emphasized the need to observe data developments before making decisions regarding potential rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach [3]. - The FOMC's recent meeting did not provide substantial policy guidance, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. has postponed the tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1 and has issued letters to fourteen countries regarding increased tariffs, particularly targeting Japan and South Korea [1][4] - The U.S. is applying extreme pressure on Japan and South Korea to make concessions, indicating a significant shift in policy compared to previous administrations [3][4] - The tariffs imposed on Japan and South Korea are punitive rather than basic, with a 25% tariff announced [4][6] Group 2 - The U.S. foreign policy has shifted focus from supporting Ukraine to addressing the Middle East situation, particularly after Israel's attack on Iran [9][12] - Following a call with Putin, the U.S. expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating a potential shift back to supporting Ukraine [10][12] - The U.S. has historically provided about 50% of Ukraine's weaponry during the conflict, highlighting its critical role in Ukraine's defense [19] Group 3 - The U.S. is considering further sanctions against Russia and has expressed dissatisfaction with Putin, indicating a potential increase in pressure on Russia [17][21] - The unpredictability of U.S. policy under the current administration has led to a decrease in credibility and reliability among both allies and adversaries [23][25] - The economic implications of the tariff policies may lead to a recession in the U.S., with the administration's actions contributing to economic uncertainty [29][41] Group 4 - The current administration has threatened the Federal Reserve's chairman regarding interest rate policies, indicating a push for lower rates despite economic instability [31][39] - The administration's insistence that tariffs do not impact inflation contradicts economic realities, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making [33][37] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is seen as a major obstacle to the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [39][41]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway has net sold stocks for 10 consecutive quarters, holding cash assets of $347 billion as of the end of Q1 2025, indicating Warren Buffett's cautious stance on the U.S. stock market [2] - Buffett's statement at the 2025 annual meeting reflects a philosophy of not always being fully invested, suggesting he is currently fearful of the market [2] - The uncertainty in the U.S. economy, driven by policies since President Trump's administration, is perceived as a reason for Buffett's significant cash reserves, showcasing his keen insight into market conditions [2] Group 2 - Buffett's quote about knowing who is "naked" only after the tide goes out emphasizes the importance of being prepared before market downturns [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the industry, indicating a cautious outlook on future performance [53]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% while reducing the monthly limit for Treasury redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, maintaining a $35 billion reduction for MBS [3][19]. - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with the GDP growth rate for 2025 revised down to 1.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while inflation predictions for PCE and core PCE have been raised to 2.7% and 2.8% respectively [23][30]. - The market's risk appetite has shown signs of recovery following the Fed's announcement, with significant increases in major stock indices and a decline in 10-year Treasury yields [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Fed's statement reflects a stable labor market and acknowledges slight inflation increases, with internal dissent indicating differing views on economic conditions [19][20]. - The Fed's flexibility in lowering interest rates is expected to increase, with potential cuts of 2-3 times in 2025, contingent on economic performance [6][33]. 2. Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 and raised its inflation expectations, suggesting that the impact of Trump's policies on inflation may be temporary [23][30]. - The median federal funds rate forecast for 2025 remains at 3.4%, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut [23][30]. 3. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.92% and 1.41% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3% [42]. - The dollar index has seen a slight decline, and gold prices have increased, indicating a shift in market sentiment [42].