Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the US dollar is expected to weaken further in the second half of 2025 due to slowing economic growth in the United States [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts from Insight Investment highlight that economic weakness may pave the way for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency continues to decline, adding pressure on the dollar [1] Market Sentiment - The current uncertainty regarding US policy and the aggressive short positions against the dollar suggest that any decline in the dollar's value is likely to be gradual and moderate [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is still growing, but the momentum of growth has significantly slowed down [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) faces increased risks regarding employment targets [1] - After an approximate economic growth rate of 1% in the first half of the year, the economy is expected to remain "soft" for the remainder of 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that a majority of participants believe that tariffs pose a persistent risk to inflation [1] - Most participants expect that the future economic growth in the United States will slow down [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - Majority of Federal Reserve participants anticipate a slowdown in future economic growth in the United States [1] Inflation Concerns - Tariffs are viewed as a continuous factor influencing inflation risks [1]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a rise, with Shanghai gold quoted at 781.30 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.03%, and Shanghai silver at 8770.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.35% [1] - International precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.60 USD per ounce, down by 0.44%, while COMEX silver was at 36.09 USD per ounce, up by 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The price movements of gold are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, which has tempered expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [3] - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities have introduced new uncertainties into the global economy, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices, which could suppress consumer spending and investment activities [3] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist highlighted that rising oil prices, in the context of high tariffs from the Trump administration, could significantly pressure household consumption and overall economic growth [3] Group 3 - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 1.98% to 3384.40 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.99% to 778.58 CNY per gram [4] - Current CME data indicates an 84.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 60% cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market and the broader economic context, highlighting the impact of disappointing macroeconomic data on the US dollar and the potential for silver prices to rise or fall based on upcoming economic reports and technical levels. Economic Context - The US dollar is under pressure following disappointing macroeconomic data, with silver prices stabilizing around $34.50 as traders are hesitant to push prices outside this range [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, while the market is closely watching for any pause in the ECB's year-long easing cycle [3] - Recent US economic data indicates a contraction in service sector activity for May, marking the first decline in nearly a year, raising concerns about economic growth and inflation [3] Silver Market Analysis - Current spot silver price is $34.76 per ounce, with various other silver trading metrics provided [2] - Silver is showing a bullish trend technically, having risen over 5% recently, and is poised to challenge the $35.00 level, which could lead to a test of the 13-year high of $37.49 [4] - If silver closes below the peak of $34.58 from March 28, it may decline to $34.00, with further support at $33.69 [5] Employment Data Expectations - Investors are awaiting the US May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of 130,000 new jobs, a decrease from April's 177,000, and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [4] - A poor performance in the upcoming employment data could exert additional downward pressure on the US dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will depreciate by approximately 9% by mid-next year due to anticipated interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth, potentially reaching levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Impact - The report highlights that a commonly used dollar index is expected to decline from its current level, reflecting the ongoing pressures on the dollar from trade tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The leading economic index in the U.S. fell to 99.4 points in April, marking the largest decline since March 2023, raising concerns about the economic growth outlook [1][9] Group 1: Reasons for Decline in Leading Economic Index - Global economic slowdown significantly impacts the U.S. economy, with factors such as international trade tensions, slowing growth in emerging markets, and global policy uncertainty contributing to the decline [3] - Domestic policy uncertainty, including adjustments in fiscal policy, changes in tax policy, and regulatory environment, leads to cautious investment and expansion decisions by businesses [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecasts - The forecast indicates that the U.S. real GDP growth rate will slow to 1.6% by 2025, lower than previous expectations, reflecting market concerns about the growth outlook [5] Group 3: Inflation Pressures - Despite the economic slowdown, inflationary pressures remain, with the inflation rate in the U.S. rising over the past year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [6] Group 4: Policy Adjustments and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve may need to adjust monetary policy in response to the anticipated economic slowdown, potentially leading to more accommodative measures to support growth, which will impact market interest rates and asset prices [8] - Market expectations regarding the U.S. economic growth outlook have shifted, with investor concerns about the slowdown potentially leading to increased market volatility, particularly in equity and bond markets [9]

Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]

在日本股市中，芯片相关股票表现尤为疲软。瑞萨电子和迪斯科(Disco Corp.)等公司股价跌幅超过7%， 成为拖累指数的主要力量。此外，金融股和电器股也大幅下跌，丰田汽车跌超3%，软银集团跌超5%， 迅销(优衣库母公司)跌超3%。尽管日本经济产业省公布的数据显示，2月份工业生产环比增长2.5%，创 下去年3月以来最快增速，但市场对4月2日美国对汽车及零部件征收新关税的担忧，仍对投资者情绪造 成压制。 韩国股市同样未能幸免，韩国综合指数开盘后快速下挫，盘中一度跌近3%。电池、汽车和半导体类股 领跌，三星电子跌超2%，SK海力士跌超3%，现代汽车跌近3%。值得注意的是，韩国17个月来首次重 启卖空活动，Ecopro和Ecopro BM等电动汽车电池供应链股重挫，成为拖累指数的主要因素。Ecopro一 度下跌9.3%，创下2023年2月以来最低水平，其附属公司Ecopro BM也一度下跌6.8%。 市场分析认为，此次日韩股市的暴跌，反映了全球市场对美国经济前景的担忧。随着美国经济增长放缓 的预期升温，投资者纷纷选择避险，导致风险资产遭到抛售。此外，美国对汽车及零部件征收新关税的 临近，也对日本和韩国的出口导向型经 ...

美国经济新剧本：不是悬崖，而是缓坡？ 过去一个月，美国经济的叙事发生了转变。 由于政策的不确定性使消费者对经济前景更加谨慎，过去一个月，几项消费者信心指标均出现下滑。但 这些大多反映了当前的"氛围"，因为对关税和联邦裁员的担忧占据了新闻头条，它们并未反映经济形势 的现实。 这种情况以前也发生过：2022年，消费者情绪和信心指标（均被视为"软数据"）以类似的方式暴跌。当 时，消费者继续消费，使"硬数据"（如月度零售销售报告）保持稳定。 摩根士丹利首席全球经济学家在上周日给客户的研究报告中写道，"所有关于经济衰退的危机都可能被 夸大了。"他指出，1月份零售销售的下滑吓坏了投资者，但随后在2月份又被增长所抵消。 在连续两年超出预期后，2025年伊始，美国经济的增长速度低于华尔街许多人的预期。但尽管经济正在 降温，但并未崩溃。 美联储主席鲍威尔在3月19日的最近一次新闻发布会上表示："经济增长似乎可能略有放缓，消费者支出 略有放缓，但仍保持稳健的步伐。" 鲍威尔用"似乎健康"来描述经济，此前，美联储在上周发布的最新经济预测摘要（SEP）中将2025年的 国内生产总值（GDP）预测下调至1.7%，低于美联储在去年12月 ...