Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current interest rate level is appropriate amid uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [1] - Analysts noted that Powell's hawkish stance has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with the probability dropping to 45.2%, a decrease of 18.1 percentage points from the previous day [1] - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity, changing its language from "economic activity continues to expand" to "economic activity growth has slowed" [4] Group 2: Economic Data and Analysis - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.5% and significantly improving from Q1's -0.5% [5] - Analysts suggest that the GDP rebound is more a result of statistical adjustments and short-term policy effects rather than a substantial improvement in economic fundamentals [7] - The private domestic final purchases (PDFP), a core GDP indicator, only grew by 1.2%, indicating that the GDP growth was driven more by a decline in imports rather than strong internal economic growth [7] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Analysts believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be slower and longer-lasting, potentially delaying the Fed's rate cut decisions [4] - There is a consensus within the Fed regarding the need for a rate cut this year, but there is disagreement on the timing based on economic signals [8] - Two Fed governors voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors expressed differing opinions on rate decisions [8]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time this year it has held rates steady [1] - The voting results for the rate decision were 9 in favor, 2 against, with one member absent; this is the first time since 1993 that two members have opposed the rate decision [1] - Powell stated that no decision has been made regarding the September rate, and they will consider economic information before the next meeting [1] Inflation - Core inflation is influenced by tariffs, with estimates suggesting that 30% to 40% of core inflation may stem from these tariffs [2] - The inflation rate is slightly above the target, but the economy remains solid despite uncertainties [3] - The committee is committed to achieving maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target [4] Economic Outlook - Recent indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. economic activity during the first half of the year, influenced by fluctuations in net exports [5] - Economic growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.5% last year [6] - The Federal Reserve reiterated that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, having removed previous language indicating that uncertainty had diminished [7] Financial Markets - The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [8] Tariffs - Some prices of goods have begun to reflect the impact of higher tariffs more clearly, but the overall effect of tariffs on economic activity and inflation is still under observation [9] - Core PCE in June may have increased by 2.7% year-over-year, with tariffs pushing up prices of certain goods, while long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the 2% target [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the US dollar is expected to weaken further in the second half of 2025 due to slowing economic growth in the United States [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts from Insight Investment highlight that economic weakness may pave the way for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency continues to decline, adding pressure on the dollar [1] Market Sentiment - The current uncertainty regarding US policy and the aggressive short positions against the dollar suggest that any decline in the dollar's value is likely to be gradual and moderate [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is still growing, but the momentum of growth has significantly slowed down [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) faces increased risks regarding employment targets [1] - After an approximate economic growth rate of 1% in the first half of the year, the economy is expected to remain "soft" for the remainder of 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that a majority of participants believe that tariffs pose a persistent risk to inflation [1] - Most participants expect that the future economic growth in the United States will slow down [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - Majority of Federal Reserve participants anticipate a slowdown in future economic growth in the United States [1] Inflation Concerns - Tariffs are viewed as a continuous factor influencing inflation risks [1]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a rise, with Shanghai gold quoted at 781.30 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.03%, and Shanghai silver at 8770.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.35% [1] - International precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.60 USD per ounce, down by 0.44%, while COMEX silver was at 36.09 USD per ounce, up by 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The price movements of gold are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, which has tempered expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [3] - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities have introduced new uncertainties into the global economy, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices, which could suppress consumer spending and investment activities [3] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist highlighted that rising oil prices, in the context of high tariffs from the Trump administration, could significantly pressure household consumption and overall economic growth [3] Group 3 - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 1.98% to 3384.40 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.99% to 778.58 CNY per gram [4] - Current CME data indicates an 84.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 60% cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market and the broader economic context, highlighting the impact of disappointing macroeconomic data on the US dollar and the potential for silver prices to rise or fall based on upcoming economic reports and technical levels. Economic Context - The US dollar is under pressure following disappointing macroeconomic data, with silver prices stabilizing around $34.50 as traders are hesitant to push prices outside this range [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, while the market is closely watching for any pause in the ECB's year-long easing cycle [3] - Recent US economic data indicates a contraction in service sector activity for May, marking the first decline in nearly a year, raising concerns about economic growth and inflation [3] Silver Market Analysis - Current spot silver price is $34.76 per ounce, with various other silver trading metrics provided [2] - Silver is showing a bullish trend technically, having risen over 5% recently, and is poised to challenge the $35.00 level, which could lead to a test of the 13-year high of $37.49 [4] - If silver closes below the peak of $34.58 from March 28, it may decline to $34.00, with further support at $33.69 [5] Employment Data Expectations - Investors are awaiting the US May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of 130,000 new jobs, a decrease from April's 177,000, and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [4] - A poor performance in the upcoming employment data could exert additional downward pressure on the US dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will depreciate by approximately 9% by mid-next year due to anticipated interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth, potentially reaching levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Impact - The report highlights that a commonly used dollar index is expected to decline from its current level, reflecting the ongoing pressures on the dollar from trade tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The leading economic index in the U.S. fell to 99.4 points in April, marking the largest decline since March 2023, raising concerns about the economic growth outlook [1][9] Group 1: Reasons for Decline in Leading Economic Index - Global economic slowdown significantly impacts the U.S. economy, with factors such as international trade tensions, slowing growth in emerging markets, and global policy uncertainty contributing to the decline [3] - Domestic policy uncertainty, including adjustments in fiscal policy, changes in tax policy, and regulatory environment, leads to cautious investment and expansion decisions by businesses [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecasts - The forecast indicates that the U.S. real GDP growth rate will slow to 1.6% by 2025, lower than previous expectations, reflecting market concerns about the growth outlook [5] Group 3: Inflation Pressures - Despite the economic slowdown, inflationary pressures remain, with the inflation rate in the U.S. rising over the past year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [6] Group 4: Policy Adjustments and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve may need to adjust monetary policy in response to the anticipated economic slowdown, potentially leading to more accommodative measures to support growth, which will impact market interest rates and asset prices [8] - Market expectations regarding the U.S. economic growth outlook have shifted, with investor concerns about the slowdown potentially leading to increased market volatility, particularly in equity and bond markets [9]

Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]