今日周三(12月24日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于72.06一线上方，今日开盘于71.46美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报72.20美元/盎司，上涨1.05%，最高触及72.70美元/盎司，最低下探71.31美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 另外白银与黄金在属性上存在细微差异，前者不仅具备投资价值，还广泛应用于工业领域，例如电子产 品制造和太阳能电池板生产，这使得白银的价格波动性通常大于黄金。 此外，白银的流动性相对较低，意味着其变现过程不如黄金顺畅，投资者需提前评估潜在的交易成本和 时效问题。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 伦敦银市场昨日开盘在68.945的位置后行情先拉升给出70.672的位置后行情冲高回落，日线最低给到了 68.658的位置后行情强势拉升，日线最高触及到了71.589的位置后整理，日线最终收线在了71.476的位 置后，日线以一根下影线稍长的大阳线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，下方37.8的多和38.8的和跟进在56 持有，50.75的多和52.7的多减仓后止损跟进在63，今日70.3多止损70.05，目标看71和71.5和71.8和72- 72.2。 在美国G ...

重要数据： 周二21:30，美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值、美国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率初值、美国第三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值、美国10月耐 用品订单月率； 周二23:00，美国12月谘商会消费者信心指数、美国12月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数； 本周，黄金呈现震荡上行节奏，不过整体力度不大，除了周三收出一根光脚短上影阳线，其他几个交易日都是收出带有长上下影线的阳线或者阴线，震荡为 本周主节奏，周线最终收出一根小阳线。 一、基本面 下周（圣诞周）市场流动性或趋紧，但关键事件与数据密集，核心聚焦美国第三季度GDP数据对美联储降息合理性的检验，同时特朗普对美联储主席人选的 任命也将主导市场情绪。 1、周线级别：黄金呈现明确的上涨趋势，10月末两周虽出现大幅回调，但并未下破周线MA10均线支撑位。截至目前，金价整体运行于MA10均线上方，维 持偏强格局。上周金价在MA5均线处企稳并收出阳线，本周延续上行趋势，盘中虽有回调但最终收阳，整体强势特征显著。后市核心支撑仍需关注周线 MA5及MA10均线，若金价持续运行于该均线组合上方，大级别强势格局可继续维持。 2、日线级别：本周金价走势相对平缓，以横盘整理为 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market indices collectively rose on August 28, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new closing highs, driven by gains in large tech stocks and quantum computing concept stocks [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate surged over 300 points, reaching 7.1173, marking the first time it has surpassed 7.12 since November 6, 2024, and creating a new high in nearly 10 months [1] - The offshore RMB traded at 7.1202 against the USD, up 337 points from the previous day, with trading occurring within the range of 7.1551 to 7.1183 [3] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, according to experts [4] - The RMB's strong performance is driven by three main factors, including the adjustment of the RMB's central parity rate, which has been increasingly strong since late June [4] - Analysts expect that if the central bank continues to implement market-based policies, the RMB exchange rate may return to the 6 range, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [4] Group 3 - The dual fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate have various impacts on different industries, with appreciation benefiting import-dependent sectors such as textiles, aviation, and home appliances [6] - Industries like shipping and agriculture may also see positive effects from RMB appreciation, as it can lead to increased demand for imports and enhance the price competitiveness of agricultural exports [6] - High-end exports and technology sectors are likely to benefit from the reduced costs of imported high-tech equipment due to RMB appreciation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on gold prices, which have dipped to around $3350. However, optimistic expectations for a rate cut in September, following Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, may provide support for gold prices, limiting their downside potential [1][3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a downtrend but remain above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a bullish stance on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around neutral, suggesting a potential for short-term consolidation. Key resistance is identified in the $3400-$3410 range, which is significant as it represents a psychological barrier and aligns with the upper Bollinger Band and the high from August 8. If gold maintains above this range, it could rise towards the July 23 high of $3439, with the next resistance at the April 22 high and the round number of $3500. Conversely, initial support is at the August 19 low of $3315, with further downside potential to the Bollinger Band lower band at $3285 and the 100-day EMA at $3268 if this support is breached [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has opened the door for a rate cut in September, although he cautioned that persistent inflation could complicate this stance. He noted that the US economy is facing a "complex situation," with inflation risks skewed to the upside and employment risks to the downside. Powell's dovish comments may provide support for gold, as a rate cut would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not yield interest [3][5]. Market Expectations - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the preliminary US GDP data for Q2, with expectations of a 3.0% annualized growth rate. If actual data exceeds expectations, it could bolster the dollar and exert further pressure on gold prices [4]. Market Sentiment - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to nearly 85%, up from 75% prior to Powell's remarks. Despite recent volatility in gold prices, physical demand in major Asian trading centers remains subdued, with buyers largely adopting a wait-and-see approach. However, Indian jewelers have begun stocking up in preparation for the upcoming festive season [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current interest rate level is appropriate amid uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [1] - Analysts noted that Powell's hawkish stance has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with the probability dropping to 45.2%, a decrease of 18.1 percentage points from the previous day [1] - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity, changing its language from "economic activity continues to expand" to "economic activity growth has slowed" [4] Group 2: Economic Data and Analysis - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.5% and significantly improving from Q1's -0.5% [5] - Analysts suggest that the GDP rebound is more a result of statistical adjustments and short-term policy effects rather than a substantial improvement in economic fundamentals [7] - The private domestic final purchases (PDFP), a core GDP indicator, only grew by 1.2%, indicating that the GDP growth was driven more by a decline in imports rather than strong internal economic growth [7] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Analysts believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be slower and longer-lasting, potentially delaying the Fed's rate cut decisions [4] - There is a consensus within the Fed regarding the need for a rate cut this year, but there is disagreement on the timing based on economic signals [8] - Two Fed governors voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors expressed differing opinions on rate decisions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1][2] Group 1: External Pressures - President Trump has been vocally critical of the Federal Reserve, questioning its spending on renovations and pressuring for rate cuts to alleviate government debt costs [1] - The White House's proximity to the Federal Reserve has intensified the scrutiny and criticism directed at Chairman Powell [2] Group 2: Internal Dissent - There is a possibility that multiple Federal Reserve governors may vote against the decision for the first time in over 30 years, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2] - Analysts predict that governors Waller and Bowman may cast dissenting votes due to concerns over high interest rates amid rising employment risks [7][8] Group 3: Upcoming Meeting Highlights - Key changes in the Federal Reserve's statement are anticipated, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty, which may remain at a high level [4][5] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's economic outlook, with a potential downgrade from "solid" to "moderate" growth [6] Group 4: Rate Cut Signals - The likelihood of Powell signaling a September rate cut during the meeting is considered low, but investors will look for clues during his press conference [9][10] - Current market pricing suggests a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may be cautious about raising these expectations before key economic data is released [12] Group 5: Trade and Tariff Impacts - Powell may face questions regarding the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, as uncertainty continues to affect business decisions [14][15] - The delayed implementation of tariffs is expected to have a gradual impact on prices, with businesses currently absorbing some of the costs [15] Group 6: Political Pressures - Powell is likely to be questioned about the influence of political pressures on monetary policy decisions, particularly in light of recent scrutiny from the Trump administration [16][17] - The potential for an internal review of the Federal Reserve's non-monetary policy functions has been suggested, indicating a need for clarity on the institution's mission [17]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar may rise following the release of strong US GDP data and a cautious stance on interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Economic Data - The US second-quarter economic growth data is set to be released at 20:30 Beijing time [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy decision will be announced the following day at 02:00, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [1] Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent increase in the dollar appears to be related to position adjustments ahead of key events rather than a fundamental reassessment of its value [1] - The potential rise in the dollar is expected to be limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the ADP and GDP data in the U.S. is anticipated to influence market movements, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and its potential impact on gold prices [1] Group 1 - The ADP data and GDP figures are expected to be significant indicators for traders [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for release in the early hours, which may lead to volatility in gold prices [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by trader Rinly to discuss strategies ahead of the data release [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold prices may rise above 3300 due to the current economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Tracking U.S. GDP data indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to make significant changes to its monetary policy in the near term [1] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - There is an expectation that gold could potentially rebound and surpass the 3300 mark, influenced by the economic environment and Fed policies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fluctuations in GDP data will not fundamentally alter the economic situation faced by the United States [1] - There is a possibility of upward revisions in first-quarter consumer spending and inventory data [1]