Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1][2] Group 1: External Pressures - President Trump has been vocally critical of the Federal Reserve, questioning its spending on renovations and pressuring for rate cuts to alleviate government debt costs [1] - The White House's proximity to the Federal Reserve has intensified the scrutiny and criticism directed at Chairman Powell [2] Group 2: Internal Dissent - There is a possibility that multiple Federal Reserve governors may vote against the decision for the first time in over 30 years, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2] - Analysts predict that governors Waller and Bowman may cast dissenting votes due to concerns over high interest rates amid rising employment risks [7][8] Group 3: Upcoming Meeting Highlights - Key changes in the Federal Reserve's statement are anticipated, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty, which may remain at a high level [4][5] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's economic outlook, with a potential downgrade from "solid" to "moderate" growth [6] Group 4: Rate Cut Signals - The likelihood of Powell signaling a September rate cut during the meeting is considered low, but investors will look for clues during his press conference [9][10] - Current market pricing suggests a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may be cautious about raising these expectations before key economic data is released [12] Group 5: Trade and Tariff Impacts - Powell may face questions regarding the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, as uncertainty continues to affect business decisions [14][15] - The delayed implementation of tariffs is expected to have a gradual impact on prices, with businesses currently absorbing some of the costs [15] Group 6: Political Pressures - Powell is likely to be questioned about the influence of political pressures on monetary policy decisions, particularly in light of recent scrutiny from the Trump administration [16][17] - The potential for an internal review of the Federal Reserve's non-monetary policy functions has been suggested, indicating a need for clarity on the institution's mission [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold prices may rise above 3300 due to the current economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Tracking U.S. GDP data indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to make significant changes to its monetary policy in the near term [1] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - There is an expectation that gold could potentially rebound and surpass the 3300 mark, influenced by the economic environment and Fed policies [1]

GDP数据的波动不会真正改变美国所面临的情况。 鲍威尔：（在美国GDP数据中）一季度消费开支和库存可能都会被上修。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump attributes the GDP data released on April 30 to former President Biden's policies rather than his own administration [1] - Trump expresses strong opposition to Biden's economic performance [1]

分析师：美国GDP数据差得令人惊讶 但其中确实存在一些噪音 金十数据4月30日讯，Sarmaya Partners公司总裁兼首席投资官瓦西夫·拉提夫就美国一季度GDP表示，这 是一个令人惊讶的市场下行数字。这在某种程度上符合我们的预期，即我们可能会进入70年代那样的情 景，经济增长疲软，通胀仍然居高不下。这也与债券收益率上升和股票收益率下降相符合。但我们确实 需要退后一步，因为这份GDP报告中存在一些噪音，因为提前囤积库存的活动，以及影响到GDP数据中 的国际贸易数据的黄金发货量。 ...

Group 1 - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased following the release of U.S. GDP data, rising by 2.18 points to a level of 26.35 [1]

Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released on April 30, with March's PMI recorded at 50.5%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking the highest level since April 2024 [2] - The composite PMI output index for March was 51.4%, indicating increased business activity, with manufacturing production index at 52.6% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.8% [2] Oil Price Adjustment - A new round of refined oil price adjustments will take place at 24:00 on April 30, with a projected increase of 60 yuan per ton based on a reference crude oil price of $65.34 per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 1.46% as of April 25 [3] U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. will release its first-quarter GDP data on April 30, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year's strong performance [4] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be published on May 2, following a March increase of 228,000 in seasonally adjusted non-farm employment, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.2% [5] Stock Market Developments - Over 4.07 billion yuan worth of locked-up shares will be released next week, with 24.76 billion shares set to be listed, including significant unlocks from companies like China Resources Materials and Chengda Biology, each exceeding 5 billion yuan [6] New Stock Opportunities - Two new stocks will be issued from April 28 to April 30, with Zairun New Energy on the ChiNext and Tiangong Co. on the Beijing Stock Exchange, collectively raising approximately 1.194 billion yuan [11]