摘要8月26日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为780.80元/克，涨幅0.24%，沪银 主力报价为9370.00元/千克，涨幅0.28%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3422.50元/盎司， 涨幅0.34%，COMEX白银报价38.78美元/盎司，涨幅0.61%。 8月26日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为780.80元/克，涨幅0.24%，沪银主力 报价为9370.00元/千克，涨幅0.28%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3422.50元/盎司，涨幅 0.34%，COMEX白银报价38.78美元/盎司，涨幅0.61%。 【盘面分析】 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2026年8月26日） 8月25日，COMEX黄金高位震荡，报收3410.7美元/盎司，涨幅0.23%。国内SHFE金夜盘震荡上行，报 收779.92元/克，涨幅0.13%。本周重点关注后半周美国GDP数据及PCE数据，若数据表现不及预期，拉 动美联储降息预期升温，金价或仍有走强预期。 | 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals futures market is experiencing a decline, while international prices show mixed results, influenced by geopolitical developments and upcoming central bank meetings [1][3][4]. Price Movements - As of August 19, 2025, the main contracts for domestic gold and silver are priced at 775.28 CNY per gram (down 0.10%) and 9182.00 CNY per kilogram (down 0.30%), respectively [1]. - Internationally, COMEX gold is priced at 3380.40 CNY per ounce (up 0.07%), while COMEX silver is at 37.90 USD per ounce (down 0.45%) [1]. Market Analysis - On August 18, COMEX gold saw a slight decline, closing at 3377.0 USD per ounce (down 0.03%), while SHFE gold also fell to 775.04 CNY per gram (down 0.13%) [4]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to influence market expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could provide support for gold prices if dovish signals are communicated [4]. Geopolitical Context - The recent meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is a focal point, with discussions on security cooperation and potential future meetings involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. [3]. - Despite some progress in negotiations, significant geopolitical risks remain, which continue to support gold prices as a safe-haven asset [3].

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 6, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 783.72 CNY per gram, down 0.08%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 9192.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.29% [1][2] - International precious metal futures also displayed mixed performance, with COMEX gold priced at 3430.80 USD per ounce, down 0.12%, and COMEX silver at 37.89 USD per ounce, up 0.15% [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. trade balance recorded a deficit of 60.2 billion USD in June, the smallest since September 2023 [3] - The final S&P Global Services PMI for July in the U.S. was 55.7, exceeding expectations of 55.2 and matching the previous value [3] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September is 7.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 92.4% [3] Group 3 - On August 5, COMEX gold prices increased by 0.25% to 3435.00 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold main contract rose by 0.01% to 784.40 CNY per gram [4] - The market currently anticipates a greater than 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is expected to support stronger gold prices [4]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a positive trend, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 776.66 CNY per gram, down 0.20%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 9152 CNY per kilogram, down 0.35% [1] - International precious metals also experienced gains, with COMEX gold priced at 3344.50 USD per ounce, up 0.42%, and COMEX silver at 38.23 USD per ounce, up 0.66% [1] - The opening prices for July 16 indicated that Shanghai gold opened at 776.66 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 779.40 CNY and a low of 773.84 CNY [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated there is no need to worry about the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs between the U.S. and China, indicating that negotiations are progressing positively [3] - The Federal Reserve's Collins noted that tariffs are expected to push inflation higher in the second half of the year, with core inflation projected to remain around 3% by year-end [3] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 97.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] Group 3 - On July 15, COMEX gold prices fell by 0.85% to 3330.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 0.42% to 774.92 CNY per gram [4] - Market concerns regarding inflation due to tariff policies are diminishing as trade negotiations progress, leading to a consolidation phase in the market [4] - Traders are awaiting the potential positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 780.40 yuan per gram on July 15, with a daily increase of 0.25% and a trading volume of 216,294 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 774.80 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 8.6 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - President Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on more countries, while investors expect these tariffs to be reduced through negotiations [1] Group 2 - Trump urged Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement, or else face a 100% secondary tariff [2] - The U.S. is open to trade negotiations with various countries, including Europe, regarding tariff issues [2] - The London silver spot price reached over $39 per ounce, marking a new high in over a decade [2]

Macro News - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on July 9 that the Russian military conducted a cluster strike on Ukrainian military airport infrastructure, achieving all designated targets [1] - Ukraine's President Zelensky stated that Russia launched a new round of large-scale attacks on multiple Ukrainian cities, with a total of 741 aerial targets identified, most of which were intercepted [1] - The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported 112 battles on the front lines on the same day, successfully repelling Russian advances in multiple directions [1] Defense and Trade - The Trump administration has resumed the shipment of certain weapons to Ukraine, including 155mm artillery ammunition and precision-guided rockets, following a one-week pause [2] - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, which Brazilian officials deemed unfair, emphasizing that Brazil is not a problem for the U.S. [2] - The precious metals market is experiencing price consolidation, with ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. and new tariff threats from the Trump administration affecting market sentiment [2] - Recent U.S. economic data showed a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, impacting interest rate expectations [2] - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts starting in September, influenced by trade policy clarity and economic data trends [2]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on July 4, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 772.22 CNY per gram, down 0.43%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 8883 CNY per kilogram, down 0.38% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3321.50 USD per ounce, down 0.44%, and COMEX silver at 36.80 USD per ounce, down 0.63% [1] - The opening prices for July 4 were 775.38 CNY for Shanghai gold and 8919.00 CNY for Shanghai silver, with respective highs of 777.20 CNY and 8953.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade negotiations focus on 18 countries contributing to 95% of the U.S. trade deficit, with strategies aimed at applying maximum pressure [3] - Current CME "FedWatch" data shows a 95.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - Last week, COMEX gold prices increased by 1.84% to 3346.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold rose by 1.10% to 777.06 CNY per gram [4]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase on July 1, with the main Shanghai gold price at 776.10 CNY per gram, up 1.47%, and the main Shanghai silver price at 8810.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.11% [1] - International precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold priced at 3347.70 USD per ounce, up 0.99%, and COMEX silver at 36.48 USD per ounce, up 0.40% [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for the main Shanghai gold and silver futures were 766.18 CNY per gram and 8737.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 776.64 CNY per gram and 8810.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX gold opened at 3315.70 USD per ounce, with a peak of 3351.80 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver opened at 36.33 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 36.77 USD per ounce [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September instead of December, citing that the impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be less than expected [3] - Morgan Stanley analysts noted that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the next two meetings remains low, despite market expectations for a rate cut in July rising from 8% to 20% and in September from 60% to 90% [3] Group 4 - COMEX gold prices increased by 0.88% to 3315.00 USD per ounce, with the CME "FedWatch" indicating a 79.8% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July and a 20.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in September is at 5.3%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 75.9% and a 50 basis point cut is 18.8% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a decline, while international precious metals saw an increase in prices, indicating a divergence in market trends [1][2]. Price Movements - As of June 30, the main contract for Shanghai gold was priced at 767.58 CNY per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.63% - The main contract for Shanghai silver was priced at 768.58 CNY per kilogram, with a decline of 0.54% - In contrast, COMEX gold was priced at 3306.10 USD per ounce, marking an increase of 0.61% - COMEX silver reached 36.44 USD per ounce, up by 0.75% [1][2]. Market Expectations - Weak U.S. economic data has heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 92.5% probability of a cut in September, and an anticipated total reduction of 65-75 basis points for the year [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more time is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, while consumer confidence data showed a decline in inflation expectations, further supporting rate cut speculation [4]. Recent Trends - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 2.90% to 3286.10 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.50% to 768.64 CNY per gram - The probability of maintaining interest rates in July is at 81.9%, with an 18.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a cumulative 76% probability of a total cut of 25 basis points by September [5].

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a rise, with Shanghai gold quoted at 781.30 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.03%, and Shanghai silver at 8770.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.35% [1] - International precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.60 USD per ounce, down by 0.44%, while COMEX silver was at 36.09 USD per ounce, up by 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The price movements of gold are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, which has tempered expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [3] - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities have introduced new uncertainties into the global economy, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices, which could suppress consumer spending and investment activities [3] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist highlighted that rising oil prices, in the context of high tariffs from the Trump administration, could significantly pressure household consumption and overall economic growth [3] Group 3 - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 1.98% to 3384.40 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.99% to 778.58 CNY per gram [4] - Current CME data indicates an 84.5% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 60% cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [4]