鲍威尔同时指出，消费者支出已出现放缓迹象，企业信心受不确定性影响，劳动力市场活力有所减弱。 他判断，关税可能会在未来几个季度导致通胀有所上升，但关税带来的通胀可能"相对短暂"，美联储将 防范一次性物价上涨演变为持续性问题。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） 当地时间9月23日，美联储主席鲍威尔就政策动向及经济形势表态，指出就业市场下行风险增大，是促 使美联储上周采取降息行动的关键原因。 鲍威尔表示，此举是政策立场转向"中性"的一步，并强调未来政策没有预设方向。他承认当前通胀水平 仍略高于目标，8月核心PCE通胀率预计为2.3%，其中商品价格上涨主要反映了关税影响，而非广泛的 通胀压力。 ...

Group 1 - Recent dovish economic data has paved the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a high probability of a rate cut next week [1][4] - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show a rebound in inflation, with overall CPI projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year [2][4] - Core CPI is anticipated to remain stable at 3.1% year-over-year, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3% [2][4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts a 0.36% increase in core CPI, reflecting upward pressure from tariffs, car prices, and airfare [4][5] - Morgan Stanley and other analysts note that tariffs are beginning to impact inflation, with significant price increases expected in various categories due to tariff-related costs [8][9] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 92% probability for this outcome, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut remains at 8% [4][9] Group 3 - Market reactions to the CPI data are being closely monitored, with potential movements in the S&P 500 index depending on the core CPI results [10][11] - If core CPI increases beyond 0.4%, the S&P 500 could see a decline of 1.5% to 2%, although this scenario is considered unlikely [11] - The options market indicates limited concern for significant market volatility following the CPI release, with implied volatility at a yearly low [12]

Group 1 - Concerns about the labor market are a primary reason for the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as stated by multiple officials [1][2] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed a strong belief that a rate cut should occur at the next meeting, emphasizing the need for preemptive action before labor market deterioration [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that a modest easing of policy may be appropriate, suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut within the remaining months of the year [1][2] Group 2 - The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, with investors widely expecting a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2] - The Fed's Beige Book reported widespread price increases related to tariffs, with businesses hesitant to pass on costs due to customer sensitivity and competitive pressures [2] - Labor market indicators are showing signs of weakness, prompting increased focus on employment objectives among Federal Reserve officials [2][4] Group 3 - St. Louis Fed President Bullard noted a slight increase in the assessment of downside risks to the labor market, while also adjusting the outlook on persistent inflation risks downward due to low transmission effects from tariffs [3] - A government report indicated a decline in job vacancies, with a reduction of 176,000 positions to 7.181 million, falling short of economists' expectations [4] - Bullard expects moderate deterioration in the labor market, with inflation pressures anticipated to return to the 2% target by the second half of 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show a rebound in inflation, influenced by tariffs, with analysts predicting a year-on-year increase from 2.7% in June to 2.8% in July [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Analysts anticipate that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, will see a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking a six-month high [1][2]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest with a lag of 3 to 5 months, indicating that July's CPI data will reflect the influence of tariffs on prices [2][3]. - Core goods inflation is projected to rise, with significant upward pressure on prices for imported goods such as furniture and electronics, potentially increasing core inflation by 0.12 percentage points [3][4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The energy sector is expected to show a continued decline, with gasoline prices experiencing a larger year-on-year drop, while used car and housing prices are also projected to decrease due to high interest rates and reduced demand [2][3]. - The service sector, which constitutes 61% of the CPI basket, has been experiencing a downward trend, but this effect is expected to diminish, with core service prices projected to rise by 0.3% in July [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased significantly, with an 84.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [5][6]. - However, the potential rebound in inflation may complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts, as some members express caution about immediate policy changes [8][9]. Market Reactions - The market's response to the July CPI data will be closely monitored, with analysts suggesting that if core inflation remains around 0.3%, it may not disrupt the stock market significantly [9][10]. - A higher-than-expected core CPI could lead to a decline in the S&P 500 index, with specific thresholds outlined for potential market movements based on CPI results [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The current period is seen as an investment opportunity for the gold sector, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][12][13] - Economic indicators suggest that maintaining high growth is challenging, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [14] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with expectations of rising inflation due to the depletion of low-cost inventories [15] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - The gold sector is viewed as a timely investment opportunity, with recent employment data indicating a shift towards lower growth expectations, enhancing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [13][14] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 20.1%, which is expected to further influence inflation in the coming quarters [15] Steel Sector - The steel industry is experiencing short-term profit fluctuations but is expected to stabilize and recover in the medium term due to the "anti-involution" policy [16] - Steel consumption has increased by 3.63% week-on-week, while production has shown a mixed trend with a notable rise in rebar production [21][18] - Overall steel inventory has risen, but structural improvements in demand are anticipated [23] - The cost of steel production is expected to stabilize, with short-term cost reduction potential diminishing [27] - Steel prices are projected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [36] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95%, indicating strong supply dynamics [41] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial growth [45] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have generally increased, reflecting strong market conditions [50]

Group 1 - The core inflation indicators are beginning to reflect the impact of tariffs, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% month-on-month in June, the largest increase since January, and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, but commodity costs rose by 0.3%, indicating inflation effects from tariffs, particularly in consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances [2][3] - Market expectations suggest that the inflation effects from tariffs will become more pronounced in the CPI reports for July and August, as companies are still selling goods accumulated before the tariffs were announced [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to 2% or lower, but the highest tariff levels in decades complicate this effort, with tariffs potentially leading to more inflation depending on their magnitude and duration [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that if current policies remain unchanged, core CPI inflation could rise by 0.3%-0.4% monthly in the coming months, reflecting price increases related to tariffs on consumer electronics, automobiles, and clothing [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with officials indicating a preference to observe summer inflation data before making any rate cuts [5][6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish members, including Governor Waller, support a more accommodative policy stance, suggesting that the surge in tariffs could be a one-time event that does not necessitate a tightening of monetary policy [4][5] - The current labor market remains healthy, with officials like New York Fed President Williams advocating for a delay in rate cuts until more inflation data is available [5][6] - As of the latest data, the probability of a rate cut in July is only 5.3%, with the first potential rate reduction expected in October, indicating limited room for easing within the year [5][6]

Macro Analysis - The inflation data in the US showed a rebound in June, driven by rising oil prices and the increasing impact of tariffs on goods inflation, with expectations that the CPI year-on-year high may exceed 3% in the second half of the year [2] Bond Market - In the first half of 2025, all adjusted convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded, with a decrease in the number of downgrades compared to the previous year; the majority of these bonds were rated AA- or below, with a focus on private enterprises in the basic chemical and computer industries [3] Industry Research Medical Industry - The disposable glove industry is expected to see a price turning point in the third quarter, with a focus on the overseas capacity release of leading domestic companies; as demand grows and costs are controlled, domestic companies are likely to gain global market share [4] Construction and Engineering - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing rapid development, with specific materials like silicon-carbon anodes and high-nickel cathodes likely to benefit; recommended companies include China National Materials, Puyang Refractories, and China Communications Construction [5] Company Research High-end Manufacturing - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 105-120 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant improvement; the increase is attributed to higher product deliveries and a favorable industry outlook [6] Electronics - The company plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, further solidifying its position in the panel industry; profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to high depreciation costs, but the outlook remains positive due to recovering market conditions [7] Overseas TMT - Qualcomm is positioned as a leader in wireless communication chips, with expectations to maintain its market share in high-end smartphone SoCs and expand in PC and autonomous driving SoCs; the company is also exploring AI-related markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding the future interest rate outlook, primarily influenced by differing expectations about the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Outlook - A "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while the majority remain concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [2] - The updated dot plot indicates that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 foresee one cut [2] Tariff Impact on Inflation - There is considerable uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and duration of tariffs' impact on inflation, leading to varied opinions among officials [3] - Some officials argue that a weak labor market or mild, temporary inflation from tariffs could justify a rate cut later this year [3] - Most officials believe tariffs may have a more lasting impact on inflation, despite a few suggesting only a one-time price increase [3] Economic Conditions and Policy Decisions - The minutes highlight the increasing uncertainty in economic policy due to changing trade policies and geopolitical risks, although overall uncertainty has decreased compared to the last meeting [4] - Economic data so far has not shown widespread effects from tariffs, prompting debates among policymakers about the timing and nature of inflationary pressures [4] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Policymakers will closely monitor the June CPI inflation data set to be released on July 15 [5] Policy Stance and Future Considerations - Some policymakers are open to considering a rate cut at the July meeting, while the majority believe a cut may be appropriate later this year [7] - Despite some calls for immediate action, most officials view the U.S. economy as stable, allowing for a patient approach to rate adjustments [7] - Recent non-farm payroll data indicates overall employment stability, potentially easing pressure for a July rate cut [7] Communication and Framework Review - The Fed officials are discussing a regular review of their framework, which guides monetary policy implementation, and initial discussions on enhancing communication tools have taken place [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that a majority of participants believe that tariffs pose a persistent risk to inflation [1] - Most participants expect that the future economic growth in the United States will slow down [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - Majority of Federal Reserve participants anticipate a slowdown in future economic growth in the United States [1] Inflation Concerns - Tariffs are viewed as a continuous factor influencing inflation risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that if it were not for the tariffs imposed by former President Trump, the Fed would likely have already implemented interest rate cuts [3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell stated that the decision to maintain the current interest rates was influenced by the significant rise in inflation expectations due to tariffs [3]. - The Fed has kept the key borrowing rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December of the previous year [3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projects two potential rate cuts by the end of 2025, but Powell emphasized a cautious approach, stating that decisions will depend on evolving data [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Data and Inflation - The Fed is currently in a challenging position, balancing its inflation forecasts against recent data that has not shown significant inflationary pressure [6]. - Powell mentioned that the most prudent approach is to remain patient and observe how the impacts of tariffs will manifest in inflation data over the coming months [7]. - Despite the pressures from the Trump administration, the Fed has refrained from cutting rates this year, as the anticipated inflation from tariffs has not yet materialized [6][8]. Group 3: Market Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is over a 76% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July [4]. - Powell acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the timing, magnitude, and persistence of inflation, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process [9]. - Some Fed officials, appointed by Trump, have suggested that a rate cut could occur as soon as the upcoming meeting, citing recent moderate economic data as supportive of this view [9].