Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The current period is seen as an investment opportunity for the gold sector, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][12][13] - Economic indicators suggest that maintaining high growth is challenging, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [14] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with expectations of rising inflation due to the depletion of low-cost inventories [15] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - The gold sector is viewed as a timely investment opportunity, with recent employment data indicating a shift towards lower growth expectations, enhancing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [13][14] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 20.1%, which is expected to further influence inflation in the coming quarters [15] Steel Sector - The steel industry is experiencing short-term profit fluctuations but is expected to stabilize and recover in the medium term due to the "anti-involution" policy [16] - Steel consumption has increased by 3.63% week-on-week, while production has shown a mixed trend with a notable rise in rebar production [21][18] - Overall steel inventory has risen, but structural improvements in demand are anticipated [23] - The cost of steel production is expected to stabilize, with short-term cost reduction potential diminishing [27] - Steel prices are projected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [36] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95%, indicating strong supply dynamics [41] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial growth [45] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have generally increased, reflecting strong market conditions [50]

Group 1 - The core inflation indicators are beginning to reflect the impact of tariffs, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% month-on-month in June, the largest increase since January, and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, but commodity costs rose by 0.3%, indicating inflation effects from tariffs, particularly in consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances [2][3] - Market expectations suggest that the inflation effects from tariffs will become more pronounced in the CPI reports for July and August, as companies are still selling goods accumulated before the tariffs were announced [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to 2% or lower, but the highest tariff levels in decades complicate this effort, with tariffs potentially leading to more inflation depending on their magnitude and duration [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that if current policies remain unchanged, core CPI inflation could rise by 0.3%-0.4% monthly in the coming months, reflecting price increases related to tariffs on consumer electronics, automobiles, and clothing [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with officials indicating a preference to observe summer inflation data before making any rate cuts [5][6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish members, including Governor Waller, support a more accommodative policy stance, suggesting that the surge in tariffs could be a one-time event that does not necessitate a tightening of monetary policy [4][5] - The current labor market remains healthy, with officials like New York Fed President Williams advocating for a delay in rate cuts until more inflation data is available [5][6] - As of the latest data, the probability of a rate cut in July is only 5.3%, with the first potential rate reduction expected in October, indicating limited room for easing within the year [5][6]

Macro Analysis - The inflation data in the US showed a rebound in June, driven by rising oil prices and the increasing impact of tariffs on goods inflation, with expectations that the CPI year-on-year high may exceed 3% in the second half of the year [2] Bond Market - In the first half of 2025, all adjusted convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded, with a decrease in the number of downgrades compared to the previous year; the majority of these bonds were rated AA- or below, with a focus on private enterprises in the basic chemical and computer industries [3] Industry Research Medical Industry - The disposable glove industry is expected to see a price turning point in the third quarter, with a focus on the overseas capacity release of leading domestic companies; as demand grows and costs are controlled, domestic companies are likely to gain global market share [4] Construction and Engineering - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing rapid development, with specific materials like silicon-carbon anodes and high-nickel cathodes likely to benefit; recommended companies include China National Materials, Puyang Refractories, and China Communications Construction [5] Company Research High-end Manufacturing - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 105-120 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant improvement; the increase is attributed to higher product deliveries and a favorable industry outlook [6] Electronics - The company plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, further solidifying its position in the panel industry; profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to high depreciation costs, but the outlook remains positive due to recovering market conditions [7] Overseas TMT - Qualcomm is positioned as a leader in wireless communication chips, with expectations to maintain its market share in high-end smartphone SoCs and expand in PC and autonomous driving SoCs; the company is also exploring AI-related markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding the future interest rate outlook, primarily influenced by differing expectations about the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Outlook - A "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while the majority remain concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [2] - The updated dot plot indicates that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 foresee one cut [2] Tariff Impact on Inflation - There is considerable uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and duration of tariffs' impact on inflation, leading to varied opinions among officials [3] - Some officials argue that a weak labor market or mild, temporary inflation from tariffs could justify a rate cut later this year [3] - Most officials believe tariffs may have a more lasting impact on inflation, despite a few suggesting only a one-time price increase [3] Economic Conditions and Policy Decisions - The minutes highlight the increasing uncertainty in economic policy due to changing trade policies and geopolitical risks, although overall uncertainty has decreased compared to the last meeting [4] - Economic data so far has not shown widespread effects from tariffs, prompting debates among policymakers about the timing and nature of inflationary pressures [4] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Policymakers will closely monitor the June CPI inflation data set to be released on July 15 [5] Policy Stance and Future Considerations - Some policymakers are open to considering a rate cut at the July meeting, while the majority believe a cut may be appropriate later this year [7] - Despite some calls for immediate action, most officials view the U.S. economy as stable, allowing for a patient approach to rate adjustments [7] - Recent non-farm payroll data indicates overall employment stability, potentially easing pressure for a July rate cut [7] Communication and Framework Review - The Fed officials are discussing a regular review of their framework, which guides monetary policy implementation, and initial discussions on enhancing communication tools have taken place [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that a majority of participants believe that tariffs pose a persistent risk to inflation [1] - Most participants expect that the future economic growth in the United States will slow down [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - Majority of Federal Reserve participants anticipate a slowdown in future economic growth in the United States [1] Inflation Concerns - Tariffs are viewed as a continuous factor influencing inflation risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that if it were not for the tariffs imposed by former President Trump, the Fed would likely have already implemented interest rate cuts [3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell stated that the decision to maintain the current interest rates was influenced by the significant rise in inflation expectations due to tariffs [3]. - The Fed has kept the key borrowing rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December of the previous year [3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projects two potential rate cuts by the end of 2025, but Powell emphasized a cautious approach, stating that decisions will depend on evolving data [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Data and Inflation - The Fed is currently in a challenging position, balancing its inflation forecasts against recent data that has not shown significant inflationary pressure [6]. - Powell mentioned that the most prudent approach is to remain patient and observe how the impacts of tariffs will manifest in inflation data over the coming months [7]. - Despite the pressures from the Trump administration, the Fed has refrained from cutting rates this year, as the anticipated inflation from tariffs has not yet materialized [6][8]. Group 3: Market Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is over a 76% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July [4]. - Powell acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the timing, magnitude, and persistence of inflation, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process [9]. - Some Fed officials, appointed by Trump, have suggested that a rate cut could occur as soon as the upcoming meeting, citing recent moderate economic data as supportive of this view [9].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation is performing as expected, with an anticipated rise in summer inflation data and a gradual cooling of the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in June, but there is a divergence among officials regarding future rate paths, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two rate cuts this year [1] - Powell emphasized the need to observe summer data before making decisions, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts on inflation [1] Group 2 - Despite pressure from Trump for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has not yet lowered rates this year, primarily to assess whether tariff-induced price increases will lead to persistent inflation [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that while the mission is not complete, the goals have been achieved, and the ECB is prepared to address complex economic situations [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey noted that the direction of interest rates is downward, attributing current inflation to administrative pricing factors amid signs of economic and labor market weakness [2]