Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Apple Daily from the Agricultural Products R & D Report on February 24, 2024, analyzing the apple market [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji apple price index was 107.22, down 0.30 from the previous workday; 6 - fruit average wholesale price was 8.10, up 0.12 from the previous workday [2] - Prices of various apple varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable [2] Futures Prices - AP01 was 8286, down 15 from the previous close; AP05 was 9705, down 130; AP10 was 8425, down 45 [2] - Spreads like AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 changed by 115, - 82, and - 30 respectively [2] Basis - Basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01, AP05, and AP10 changed by 15, 130, and 45 respectively [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - Pre - Spring Festival apple出库 data was okay, and inventory decreased significantly, with the year - on - year inventory decline widening. Apple demand was not bad considering the high cold - storage apple prices [5] - The apple warehouse receipt cost this season is around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. As the March contract is approaching the delivery month after the Spring Festival, the market may trade the warehouse receipt cost, and the price of the May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term [5] Transaction Strategy - For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8] - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - There are 10 figures in total, including those showing the prices of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple出库 volume [10][11][12]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the content Group 2: Core View - The market has reached a consensus on the low inventory and poor quality of apples in cold storage this year. The point of divergence lies in the demand situation. The pre - Spring Festival market restocking was okay, with the apple outbound volume from cold storage at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years, causing the year - on - year decline in recent cold storage inventory data to widen again. The apple warehouse receipt cost this season is high, around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. As the March contract will enter the delivery period after the Spring Festival, the market may trade on the warehouse receipt cost issue, so it is expected that the price of the May contract will remain in a short - term upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, down 0.30 from the next working day. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.98 yuan, up 0.01 from the next working day [2] - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is at 8209, up 56 from yesterday's close; AP05 is at 9739, up 138; AP10 is at 8318, up 60. The spreads between different contracts also show corresponding changes [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts shows a downward trend [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of apples in cold storage in major producing areas across the country is 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons compared to last week, with the destocking speed accelerating compared to the previous week and higher than the same period last year. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The mainstream prices of apples in the production areas are stable, with the cold storage packaging in Shandong nearing completion and more cold storages in the northwest region still packaging and shipping [7] - **Trading Logic**: Due to low cold - storage inventory, poor apple quality, and high warehouse - receipt costs, the price of the May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the May contract on dips, go short on the October contract on rallies; conduct a long - May and short - October arbitrage; and it is recommended to wait and see for options [8] Third Part: Related Attachments - The content includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in certain markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that due to the low cold - storage inventory and poor quality of apples this year, the pre - Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm has increased recently, and the inventory removal speed has accelerated. The apple warehouse receipt cost is relatively high, around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. Considering the low cold - storage inventory, increased downstream stocking enthusiasm, and high warehouse receipt cost, the overall trend of the apple May contract is expected to be strong [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, down 0.30 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.99, up 0.06 from the previous trading day [2]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is 8163, up 45 from the previous close; AP05 is 9517, down 18; AP10 is 8237, up 20. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 increased by 63, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 38, and AP10 - AP01 decreased by 25 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 163, down 45 from the previous trading day; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 1517, up 18; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 237.0, down 20 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Apple Market News** - As of February 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China is 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons from the previous week, with an accelerating inventory removal speed and higher than the same period last year [7]. - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 15.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 11.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72% [7]. - In the production areas, the inventory removal continued to accelerate, mainly for packaging and shipping. The transactions of fruit farmers' goods were mainly concentrated on the two - pole sources, and the overall trading volume was limited. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of trucks was relatively dense, but the sales did not improve significantly, and there was a backlog of goods in the transfer warehouses and on the ground vehicles [7]. - In the Shandong production area, the packaging and shipping were okay, and the transactions of fruit farmers' goods were concentrated on third - grade and small fruits. In the Yichuan and Weihai sub - production areas, the trading atmosphere improved slightly. In the Yan'an production area, the transactions of fruit farmers' goods improved slightly. In the Weinan and Xianyang production areas, the transactions improved, and some large fruit enterprises adjusted the goods of merchants to supplement the sources [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to low cold - storage inventory, poor quality, increased pre - Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm, and high warehouse receipt cost, the overall trend of the apple May contract is expected to be strong [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies [8]. - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8]. - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides 10 figures, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][12] [13][14][16][18][19][20][21][23]

苹果周报：出库速度较快 果价有支撑 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 苹果现货分析 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛川半商品纸袋70#（元/斤） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Approaching Spring Festival Stockpiling, Apple Outbound Speeds Up [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Industry: Apple Group 2: Investment Rating - **No investment rating provided in the report** Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The 5 - month contract price of apples is expected to be more likely to rise than fall. The reasons are that although the current national cold - storage apple inventory data shows a relatively low destocking rate, considering the late Spring Festival this year and the peak of apple sales is yet to come, the destocking rate may not be low. Also, the apple warehouse - receipt cost is high this season [14]. Group 4: Spot Analysis - This week, the Spring Festival stockpiling of late - Fuji apples in production areas improved slightly, with the outbound volume increasing month - on - month. Snowfall in some areas during the week slightly affected shipments. Most merchants are still packaging their self - stored goods for market, and the trading volume of farmers' goods has increased slightly, mainly low - priced or extreme - end products, with the overall trading volume still limited. The price of general - quality farmers' goods is stable or weak, and in some areas, farmers are eager to sell, leading to a slight price drop. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks decreased, the transit warehouses were severely congested, the customer flow was scarce, and the sales were slow [7]. - In Shandong, the overall outbound volume accelerated slightly, but snowfall affected the shipping speed in some areas. The number of customers inspecting goods in cold storage increased. The Spring Festival gift - box stockpiling has started. In Zhaoyuan and Penglai, third - grade apples were mainly sold, mostly in gift - box or small - bag packaging. In Qixia, some foreign - trade channels were looking for small - sized apples, and a small amount of third - grade apples were sold. In Yiyuan and Weihai, the number of merchants increased slightly, but the transactions were still average. In Penglai, the mainstream price of Grade 1 and 2 75 farmers' apples is around 3.0 - 3.6 yuan per jin, 4 - 4.5 yuan per jin for 80 Grade 1 and 2, and 1.3 - 2.5 yuan per jin for third - grade apples. In Qixia, the price of Grade 1 and 2 80 late - Fuji red - skinned farmers' apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan per jin, 2.2 - 2.5 yuan per jin for 75 general - grade farmers' apples, and 1.7 - 2 yuan per jin for 65 - 70 small apples [7]. - In Shaanxi, the de - stocking rate increased slightly month - on - month. The number of inquiring customers in Yan'an and Weinan increased, and customers were packaging their self - stored goods for shipment, with the shipping volume increasing compared to before. The transactions of farmers' goods were mainly high - quality general - grade and high - grade by - products. In Xianyang, the enthusiasm of merchants to find goods was not high, and the transactions were still light. Overall, the outbound volume in northern Shaanxi was better than that in southern Shaanxi. In Luochuan, the ex - warehouse price of farmers' semi - commercial apples above 70 is around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan per jin, 3.5 - 4 yuan per jin for general - grade apples above 70, and 2.2 yuan per jin for high - grade by - products. In Baishui, the price of high - quality general - grade farmers' apples starting from 75 is about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per jin [7]. Group 5: Supply Analysis - As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January 15 - 21, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points, and the destocking rate was 14.06%. As the Spring Festival stockpiling stage began, the cold - storage outbound volume gradually increased [10]. - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 49.93%, and it decreased by 1.44 percentage points this week. The cold - storage outbound volume in the production area increased slightly, mainly driven by Spring Festival stockpiling. The packaging volume of merchants in Shandong's cold storage was okay, but the cold - storage shipping volume this year was slightly lower than the same period last year. Some packaged goods were still stored [10]. - In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 45.71%, and it decreased by 1.98 percentage points this week. The number of cold - storage merchants' packaging was okay, and the shipping volume gradually increased. Traders still mainly packaged their self - stored goods and purchased a small amount from farmers because of the high defect rate of farmers' goods and high packaging costs [10]. - In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 47.16%, and it decreased by 2.69 percentage points this week. The outbound situation in Gansu was good, and the packaging enthusiasm of traders was okay. High - quality goods had certain profits, while the packaging willingness for low - quality goods was general [10]. - In other areas, the overall outbound of paper - plus - film Fuji in Shanxi was stable. The e - commerce shipping volume in Yuncheng decreased slightly, and the sales speed of paper - plus - film Fuji slowed down slightly. The purchasing volume of market merchants in the northern production areas increased slightly. In Liaoning, the overall market was stable, with a relatively large number of merchants recently, mainly purchasing low - priced goods [10]. - It is predicted that during the Spring Festival stockpiling stage, the cold - storage packaging volume in production areas will increase, and the packaged goods will be gradually shipped to the market. It is expected that the cold - storage outbound volume will gradually increase next week [10]. - According to Steel Union data, as of January 21, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas was 6.8278 million tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from last week. The destocking speed continued to accelerate month - on - month but was lower than the same period last year [10]. Group 6: Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning decreased slightly compared to last week, with an average of about 23.6 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late - Fuji in baskets is 3.3 - 4.4 yuan per jin, and 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per jin in boxes. The actual transaction price is based on quality. The price of Luochuan late - Fuji in baskets starting from 70 is 4.0 - 5.5 yuan per jin, and the price of Jingning late - Fuji in boxes starting from 70 is 4.5 - 6.5 yuan per jin. Recently, the market consumption was still average, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers decreased, there was pressure to digest the incoming trucks within a day, the congestion in transit warehouses increased, and high - quality Gansu goods were the main ones sold. Second - and third - level wholesalers purchased goods as needed [13]. - According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on January 22, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.93 yuan per kilogram, slightly rising from last Friday and at a high level compared to previous years [13]. - During the 2025 - 2026 acquisition season, the profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 Grade 1 and 2 apples were suspended [13]. Group 7: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and go short on the 10 - month contract on rallies [14]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract [14]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Group 8: Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand**: The report presents data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023 [18]. - **Inventory and Outbound**: It shows the national and regional (Shandong, Shaanxi) cold - storage apple inventory, outbound volume, and their trends from 2017/18 - 2025/26 [10][21]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The report provides data on the basis of 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month contracts and the price spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts from 2019 - 2026 [26].

研究所 农产品研发报告 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 21 日 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 相 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目仪 格 | 涨跌 | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.79 | 109.13 | 0.66 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.80 | 7.92 | -0.12 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | रु दि | ...

Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: Slight Increase in Demand, Faster Apple Outbound [1] Core Viewpoint - This season's apple warehouse receipt cost is high due to low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting the apple futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than the same period last year, the Spring Festival is postponed this year, so the peak sales season is also delayed, and the current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the outbound volume remains normal, the later apple supply will be tight. If the apple demand maintains a normal state, the price of the May contract is likely to rise [14]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - **Market Situation**: This week, the number of inquiring merchants in late - Fuji apple production areas slightly increased, with different trading atmospheres in each area. The outbound of fruit farmers' goods was concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. Most merchants packed their self - stored goods, and the trading of fruit farmers' goods focused on low - priced products. The overall shipment volume was small, and the price was stable or slightly weak. In the sales areas, the transaction was still sluggish, with reduced arrivals and increased pressure on sales and inventory in transit warehouses [6]. - **Main Production Area Prices**: In Shandong, the cold - storage trading was cold, with limited overall transfer volume. In Shaanxi, the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year. The prices in different regions varied, such as in Penglai, 65 - 70 general goods were 2.0 - 2.2 yuan/jin, and in Luochuan, 70 above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods were 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin [6]. 2. Supply Analysis - **Inventory Monitoring**: As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In two weeks (December 25, 2025 - January 8, 2026), the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the inventory reduction rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a 1.53 - percentage - point decrease in two weeks. In Shaanxi, it was 49.18%, with a 2.56 - percentage - point decrease. In Gansu, it was 51.87%, with a 3.88 - percentage - point decrease [9]. - **Steel Union Data**: As of January 7, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main national production areas was 720.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.66 million tons from last week, and the inventory reduction speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year [9]. 3. Demand Analysis - **Market Conditions in Guangdong**: In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of morning arrival vehicles decreased compared with last week. The market consumption was average, with reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and there was pressure on daily digestion of arrival vehicles. The inventory in transit warehouses increased, and high - quality Gansu goods were the main ones sold [12]. - **Substitute Prices**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 18, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.66 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, at a high level in recent years [12]. - **Profit Situation**: During the acquisition stage of the 2025 - 2026 production season, the profit statistics of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia were suspended [12]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: High apple warehouse receipt costs support the futures price. Although the current cold - storage apple outbound volume is lower than last year, considering the postponed Spring Festival, the demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal outbound volume is maintained, the later supply will be tight. Pay attention to the cold - storage apple outbound situation. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [14]. - **Specific Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [14]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the May contract and short the October contract [14]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 5. Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided text, only relevant data charts of apple export, planting area, and consumption are presented [17][18] - **Inventory and Outbound**: Data on national and regional cold - storage inventory and outbound volume are presented in charts, showing the trends over different weeks [20][21] - **Price Difference and Basis**: Charts show the trends of 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 1 price differences and 1 - month, 5 - month, 10 - month basis over different time periods [25][26]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Date: January 5, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.01 today, 108.70 next working day, up 0.31 [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.93 today, 7.92 next working day, up 0.01 [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 10100 today, 9950 yesterday, up 150 [2] - AP05: 9547 today, 9120 yesterday, up 427 [2] - AP10: 8450 today, 8116 yesterday, up 334 [2] Spreads - AP01 - AP05: -277 change [2] - AP05 - AP10: 93 change [2] - AP10 - AP01: 184 change [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year's apple production decreased, good - fruit rate is poor, storage is difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory peak is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production problem, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 7.4404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed is lower than the same period last year [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 113,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. In November 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] - Apple prices in the producing areas are stable. The number of cold - storage buyers has increased, and the trading volume has increased. Buyers mainly purchase high - quality and low - price apples, and medium - quality apples with high defect rates from farmers have few transactions. Traders in the northwest producing areas mainly pack their self - stored goods. The market arrivals are stable, the sales are stable, and the prices are stable [7] - The price of late - maturing paper - bag Fuji in Baishui County, Weinan, Shaanxi is stable. The mainstream price of 70 farmer - produced apples is 3.0 - 3.3 yuan per catty, and most transactions are concentrated at 3.2 yuan per catty. The price of trader - sourced apples is about 4.2 yuan per catty. The recent sales are good, and the buyers' enthusiasm has increased [7] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate in a short - term range [8] - Arbitrage: Long AP05 and short AP10 [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include prices of different apple varieties, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in some markets, 6 - kind fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory and出库量 [11][13][18][20][23]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily - Date: December 30, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: Today's price is 109.01, next - working - day price is 108.70, with a decrease of 0.31 - 6 - fruit average wholesale price: Today's price is 7.83, next - working - day price is 7.95, with a decrease of 0.12 - Other apple varieties' prices remain unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01: Today's price is 9658, yesterday's close was 9587, with an increase of 71 - AP05: Today's price is 9200, yesterday's close was 9163, with an increase of 37 - AP10: Today's price is 8174, yesterday's close was 8107, with an increase of 67 [2] Price Differences - AP01 - AP05: Today's value is 458, previous trading - day value was 424, with an increase of 34 - AP05 - AP10: Today's value is 1026, previous trading - day value was 1056, with a decrease of 30 - AP10 - AP01: Today's value is - 1484, previous trading - day value was - 1480, with a decrease of 4 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year, apple production decreased, the proportion of high - quality fruits is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory peak is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate within a short - term range - Arbitrage: Go long on AP01 and short on AP10 - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 7.4404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the inventory - reduction speed is lower than that of last year - In November 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 2500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 113,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71% - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] Market Conditions - The apple market in the producing areas has changed little, cold - storage transactions are stable, mainly low - price goods. Traders are packaging their own high - quality goods and rarely purchasing from outside. Merchants in various producing areas have started to package Spring Festival gift boxes. The market arrivals are stable, and the mainstream prices are stable - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The number of buyers is increasing, and farmers' willingness to sell is rising [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of the 01 contract of apple futures is likely to continue rising and may reach or exceed the level of the 12 contract due to reduced supply and fewer deliverable fruits [1][2] - The subsequent factor determining apple prices will shift from supply to consumption, and there is a risk of the traditional peak - season being lackluster due to changes in consumption structure [1] - The 05 contract has room for future price increases as good - quality apples are scarce, despite recent price retracements [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction for the 01 contract is its final closing price. With this year's apple production reduction and quality decline, fewer deliverable fruits are supporting the price increase [1] - The uncertainty lies in whether the upcoming Spring Festival consumption season will be good or bad, as there are concerns about weak consumption and the "bad money driving out good" situation [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The upward momentum of apples has fluctuated recently. Last week, apple futures prices were oscillating strongly, with more significant retracements in the far - month contracts. The net long position decreased to 5232 lots [5] - The basis strategy is difficult to formulate due to the difficulty in determining the spot target, and the month - spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 15.1% over three years [8] - For inventory management, when worried about a bumper apple harvest and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (AP2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton and sell call options (AP2603C) with a 25% ratio at 100 - 120 yuan/ton [8] - For procurement management, when worried about rising apple prices, enterprises can buy apple futures (AP2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton and sell put options (AP2603P9) with a 75% ratio at 160 - 200 yuan/ton [8] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of December 24, steel - union data showed that the national apple cold - storage inventory was 744.04 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.94 million tons; while Zhuochuang data showed 702.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.06 million tons [11] - In the market, inquiries for late - Fuji apples increased in the second half of the week, but the transaction of farmers' apples was still limited. The consumption in the Guangdong market improved slightly, but there was pressure in daily vehicle - load digestion [11] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Zhuochuang and steel - union will release weekly inventory data every Thursday [14] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures oscillated with little overall change, and the near - month contracts were slightly stronger. The position of the main 05 contract decreased seasonally and was lower than last year's level. Profitable seats reduced their positions last week [14] - Technically, the 01 contract of apple futures was strong at a high level, showing an obvious bullish trend, while the 05 contract was weak and needed time to adjust [14] 3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - The basis structure of apples is complex due to inconsistent apple quality each year and different grading conditions in Shandong and the northwest regions. The futures delivery rules are also constantly changing [16] - The 1 - 5 spread has strengthened since December, driven by the near - month delivery logic. The shortage of deliverable fruits has pushed up the price of near - month contracts and the spread, which may further widen before entering the delivery month [16] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. This year, storing apples is challenging due to more low - quality fruits and fewer high - quality ones [18] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Affected by spring hot - dry winds and rainy weather during the harvest period, this year's apple production and quality have significantly declined. Zhuochuang estimates the 2025 apple production to be about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year [20] - Based on the current warehousing situation, inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be even lower due to more inferior fruits [20]