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美联储政策动向影响全球市场,特朗普批评美联储理事,欧洲央行行长警示美国关税拖累欧元区经济。
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 17:56
Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% on May 8, 2025, signaling a potential future rate cut despite a 0.9% month-on-month increase in the PPI for July, which exceeded market expectations [1][3] - The July PPI reached its highest level since June 2022, indicating ongoing supply chain cost pressures, while non-farm employment growth was only 73,000, suggesting signs of a cooling labor market [3] - The dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a rebound in global stock markets, but a weakening dollar may exacerbate capital flow pressures in emerging markets [3] Group 2: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - On August 19, 2025, Trump criticized Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it harms the housing industry, and called for his resignation while suggesting a replacement [7] - Trump advocated for significant rate cuts, proposing a reduction of 300 basis points to stimulate the real estate market and economic growth, contrasting with the Fed's cautious approach to inflation [7] - Trump's scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's budget, particularly the renovation costs exceeding $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, has raised questions about its management transparency [7] Group 3: European Central Bank Warnings - ECB President Lagarde indicated that U.S. tariffs on European goods could reduce Eurozone GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the first year, with potential retaliatory measures from the EU increasing the impact to 0.5 percentage points [10][12] - The tariffs are expected to directly affect Eurozone manufacturing exports and temporarily raise inflation by about 0.5 percentage points, while long-term growth may be suppressed [12] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 is only 0.9%, with core inflation remaining low at 0.9%, limiting the ability to respond to imported inflation through interest rate hikes [12] Group 4: Interconnections and Global Impact - The conflict between Trump's rate cut demands and the Fed's data-dependent strategy increases policy uncertainty, affecting global confidence in dollar assets [15] - U.S. tariff policies are dragging down Eurozone growth through trade channels, creating a "lose-lose" situation as retaliatory measures raise import costs [15] - Emerging markets are compelled to raise interest rates to combat imported inflation, while the Eurozone faces a "low growth-low inflation" trap, limiting monetary policy options [15]
美国关税又现新政策 纸白银行情持续走跌
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-20 07:13
Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed a 50% tariff on 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products, indicating a deepening of trade protectionism [3] - This policy aims to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries while posing new challenges to global supply chains and related sectors, affecting a wide range of industries from wind turbines to automotive parts [3] - The tariff policy may serve as a catalyst for adjusting trade relations, prompting countries to reassess their positions within global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise inflation expectations, exacerbate trade tensions, and increase economic uncertainty, which overall benefits silver prices [3] - Despite potential short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar, rising safe-haven demand and heightened inflation expectations are likely to drive silver prices higher [3] - In the silver market, key resistance levels are identified in the 8.651-8.800 range, while support levels are noted in the 8.400-8.573 range [4]
美国对407种钢铝衍生品加征50%关税 钢铝行业掀起新一轮风暴
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-20 03:13
美国商务部宣布对407种钢铝衍生品加征50%关税。据央视新闻,当地时间8月19日,美国商务部宣布, 将407个产品类别纳入钢铁和铝关税清单,适用税率为50%。商务部声明称,此次新增清单涵盖范围广 泛,包括风力涡轮机及其部件、移动起重机、铁路车辆、家具、压缩机与泵类设备等数百种产品。 兴业期货分析指出,美国对铝进口关税加征范围的进一步扩大将对美国铝进口需求形成拖累,当地企业 或优先使用成本较低的库存产品。但对价格拖累大概率不及上一轮。从中期来看,美国进口依赖度转变 难度较大,且自给率的抬升仍需新增产能的投产,或对铝需求存在一定支撑。对国内而言,总量影响较 为有限,铝供给刚性特征仍未有转变,国内旺季需求改善情况或对价格影响更为显著。 | 序号 名称 | | --- | | 1 | | 2 螺纹钢主力 | | 3 | | 4 铝合金主力 | 近期来看,国内市场避险情绪显著回升,商品期货整体面临回调。北京时间8月20日周三上午10:19分, 国内螺纹钢期货主力下跌0.99%,报3113元/吨;热卷期货主力跌1.31%,报3378元/吨;沪铝期货主力下 跌0.51%,报20470元/吨;铸造铝合金期货主力下跌0.37% ...
重振世人对多边贸易体系信心
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-19 22:07
Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has lowered its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, indicating increasing damage from U.S. tariff measures on the global trade system [1] - The U.S. has imposed differentiated tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on 69 trading partners, raising the trade-weighted average tariff rate to 20.11% as of August 7 [1] - The imposition of tariffs violates WTO principles, leading to systemic risks in global trade rules and increasing uncertainty and fragmentation [1] Group 2 - The unilateral approach of the U.S. in trade negotiations has led to market access agreements that favor U.S. industries while harming global trade governance [2] - Developing countries bear the heaviest burden from these tariff measures, with 32 landlocked developing countries facing marginalization in value chains due to high transportation costs and tariffs [2] - The current multilateral trade system is at a crossroads, with rising trade restrictions potentially leading to further trade contraction and exacerbating economic disparities [2] Group 3 - Urgent reforms are needed for the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism, including the selection of appellate judges and maintaining a two-tier structure for dispute resolution [3] - Emerging economies are encouraged to build diversified supply chain networks to mitigate risks and enhance resilience through regional resource integration [3] - Strengthening the core position of the multilateral trade system is essential, advocating for inclusive rule reforms and ensuring that global development benefits are shared equitably [3]
中方终于翻脸,美国被踢出局,1200吨杂粮将入华,美农民财路被断
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 16:52
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe challenges faced by American soybean farmers due to the trade policies implemented by former President Trump, particularly the increased tariffs on Chinese imports, which have led to a significant loss of market access for U.S. soybeans. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Trump's announcement in April 2025 to raise tariffs on Chinese imports from 34% to 84% resulted in a total tax rate of 104%, which prompted China to retaliate with a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, eliminating the price advantage of American soybeans [3] - As a consequence, Chinese buyers signed contracts for 12 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, accounting for half of the demand for the next two months, leaving American farmers without any sales [3] Group 2: Agricultural Subsidies - In response to the crisis, Trump proposed a $61 billion subsidy plan, but most of the funds went to large farms and urban investors, while small farmers received minimal support, insufficient to cover rising costs [5] - Following the announcement of subsidies, soybean prices fell by 1.5%, indicating market skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Trump's pressure tactics, including demands for China to purchase four times the amount of soybeans, were ineffective as China continued to secure supplies from Brazil, even establishing currency settlements to avoid exchange rate risks [7] - The reliance on Chinese orders has historically been significant, with over 40% of U.S. soybean exports going to China, but by August 2025, orders from Chinese buyers had completely ceased [9] Group 4: Consequences for Farmers - The financial strain on American farmers is evident, with 88 farms filing for bankruptcy, a 76% increase from the previous year, as subsidies failed to cover loan interests [11] - The article highlights the disparity in subsidy distribution, with funds benefiting Wall Street investors rather than actual farmers, leading to disillusionment among the agricultural community [11] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - China's investments in Brazil have strengthened its supply chain, with a 48% increase in Brazilian soybean shipments to Chinese ports, while American shipments have virtually disappeared [13] - The cost advantage of Brazilian soybeans, which are $31 per ton cheaper than U.S. soybeans, combined with shorter transportation times and reduced currency risks, has made American soybeans less competitive [15]
特朗普最担心的一幕发生?巴西突然宣布重大消息!打的美国一个措手不及,更大的崩塌刚刚开始?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 13:12
美国大豆产业正承受前所未有的打击。失去中国市场份额后,大量大豆积压在仓库,加工企业开工率不足,整个产业链陷入停滞。美国农业部报告显示,过 去两年美国大豆库存同比增长超过 30%,部分产区甚至出现仓储设施不足的情况。 美国农民的处境更为艰难。收入较关税战前锐减,许多家庭难以偿还农场贷款。美国农场局统计,仅去年一年,美国农场破产数量同比上升 15%。尽管政 府推出补贴政策,但补贴金额远不足以弥补市场流失带来的损失,且这种输血式的救助无法从根本上解决问题。特朗普曾提出让中国将大豆订单增加三倍, 以此削减贸易逆差。这一提议忽略了市场规律和中国的实际需求,显得不切实际。中国早已与巴西等国建立起稳定的供应链,从种植、运输到加工的全链条 合作日趋成熟,不会因外部压力轻易改变采购策略。 中国作为全球最大的大豆进口国,每年需求量巨大。美国加征关税后,中国开始重新评估供应链安全,将采购重心转向巴西。数据显示,在关键的 9 月采购 期,中国从南美锁定的大豆订单约 800 万吨;10 月这一数字虽降至约 400 万吨,但来源仍以巴西为主。美国大豆在传统销售旺季被明显冷落,巴西则借此 机会巩固了在全球大豆贸易中的地位。 据路透社消息, ...
吃饭又砸锅?欧洲可不干!对华加税200%,G7跟不跟?美财长话音刚落,在座6国无一敢应声
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 06:32
Group 1 - The article discusses the U.S. Treasury Secretary's push for European allies to prepare for higher tariffs on countries buying Russian energy, which is seen as a strategy targeting China rather than Russia [1][3][5] - European leaders' silence during the G7 meeting indicates their reluctance to engage in a trade war with China, as their economies are closely tied to Chinese markets, particularly in sectors like automotive and electronics [3][6] - The U.S. has a history of using its allies as tools in trade disputes, and the current situation reflects a growing awareness among European nations of the risks involved in aligning too closely with U.S. policies against China [6][8] Group 2 - The article highlights that the U.S. is unlikely to achieve favorable outcomes in a trade war with China without the support of its allies, and the recent G7 meeting showcased a lack of consensus on this issue [5][8] - The potential for retaliatory measures from China could negatively impact American companies that rely on the Chinese market, such as Apple and Tesla, leading to domestic discontent [8] - The dynamics of global trade are shifting, with countries recognizing the interconnectedness of their economies, making it increasingly difficult for the U.S. to impose unilateral trade measures without facing backlash [8]
欧洲专家:美国关税冲击欧洲出口
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-19 05:15
新华社布鲁塞尔8月18日电(记者康逸)荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管卡斯滕·布热斯基18日说,最新 贸易数据表明,美国高关税政策已冲击欧洲出口。 欧盟统计局当天公布的数据显示,6月欧元区出口环比下降2.4%,进口环比增长超过3%,经季节性 调整后的贸易顺差从5月的156亿欧元收窄至28亿欧元。6月欧盟对美国出口同比下降超10%。 今年以来,美国对欧盟加征关税节节攀升。6月许多欧洲出口商面临美国10%的"对等关税",汽车 生产商面临25%的关税,钢铁和铝生产商则面临高达50%的关税。8月美方对大多数欧盟输美商品征收 15%的"对等关税"生效。这些税率都远高于此前美欧间平均不足5%的关税水平。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 布热斯基说,欧盟统计局当天公布的数据展现了首轮美国关税冲击后欧洲的出口状况。总体而言, 今年前几个月欧洲工业数据高度波动。这主要缘于在关税生效前企业抢先向美国出口,随后又因高关税 减少出口。 布热斯基认为,自年初以来,欧元走强、美国关税措施以及全球贸易前景的不确定性,叠加欧洲出 口商面临的激烈竞争等因素,都可能在未来持续拖累欧洲出口。 ...
印度双标操作!中国PVC税率不降反升,而美国等获得关照
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 04:33
Group 1 - The Indian Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping duties on PVC suspension resin from China, the US, Japan, South Korea, and other regions, with a maximum tax of $284 per ton [1] - The tax rates for Chinese PVC are set between $122 and $232 per ton, which is an increase of $40 from the preliminary ruling, while the US rate has decreased by $32, indicating a double standard in the application of tariffs [3] - India relies on China for 42% of its PVC imports, and the new tariffs will force local companies to either pay higher prices or face production shortages, which could harm the domestic industry [3] Group 2 - The tax rates for South Korea range from $0 to $169 per ton, while Japan's rates are between $49 and $148 per ton, suggesting a targeted approach against Chinese companies [3] - The Indian construction and agriculture sectors are heavily dependent on PVC, and the imposition of tariffs will lead to increased costs for downstream industries, ultimately affecting Indian consumers [3] - The situation illustrates that trade wars do not yield winners, and aggressive tariff measures may backfire, jeopardizing local industries and employment [3]
特朗普一句话,让莫迪心碎了!中俄的反应,让印度彻底凉凉!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 17:01
Group 1 - Trump's executive order on August 6, 2025, imposed a 25% tariff on Indian oil imports from Russia, raising the total tariff to 50%, which is expected to reduce India's exports to the US by 80% [1][4][8] - India's exports to the US account for approximately 17% of its total exports, leading to significant economic pressure on Indian businesses and employment [1][4] - The Indian government is facing challenges as it attempts to balance its energy security needs with the economic impact of the tariffs, emphasizing the importance of continuing to purchase Russian oil [3][8] Group 2 - Modi's government is implementing tax reforms to stimulate the economy in response to the tariffs, but these measures are seen as temporary solutions [3][4] - The geopolitical dynamics are shifting, with China continuing to import Russian oil significantly, while India feels isolated due to the US's selective enforcement of tariffs [4][8] - The Indian economy is projected to suffer a loss of over a hundred billion dollars in exports due to the tariffs, exacerbating the trade deficit [4][8] Group 3 - The response from China and Russia indicates a strengthening of their energy alliance, with Russia prioritizing oil exports to China, further sidelining India [3][6] - India's attempts to collaborate with South Korea on steel production are limited in scale compared to its needs, highlighting the challenges it faces in diversifying its trade partnerships [6][8] - The overall sentiment is that India's position in the global trade landscape is becoming increasingly precarious, necessitating a reevaluation of its foreign relations strategy [6][10]