Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and strategies of Bao Xiaohui, the chairman and investment director of Changli Asset, emphasizing a focus on "absolute return" and a "fixed income plus" strategy to achieve stable long-term growth for clients [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Bao Xiaohui believes that the essence of investment is a contest of rationality and discipline, advocating for decisions based on in-depth research and strict discipline [2]. - The company has consistently pursued an "absolute return" goal since its inception, focusing on long-term stable growth rather than short-term rankings [2]. - The "fixed income plus" strategy involves using high-rated credit bonds and interest rate bonds as a stable asset base while flexibly allocating equity assets and utilizing derivatives to enhance returns [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Bao Xiaohui expresses optimism about the resilience of the Chinese economy and the ample policy space available, maintaining a positive outlook for the economic fundamentals in the coming years [2]. - The current A-share market rally is seen as driven by both policy and liquidity, with expectations of continued fiscal and monetary support [3]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are warnings about potential technical adjustments in the short term, particularly for small-cap stocks that have seen significant price increases [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation, suggesting a reduction in real estate and precious metals while prioritizing equity opportunities [2]. - Bao Xiaohui highlights the need for patience in holding positions and waiting for rotation opportunities, especially in the context of a long-term trend [4]. - The company adheres to a "contrarian layout" principle, advocating for building positions during market downturns and gradually exiting during high market sentiment [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented allocation challenges faced by global investors due to high interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in stock market valuations and an inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasuries, while gold prices reach historical highs driven by safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - The stock market exhibits significant structural differentiation, with the technology sector remaining resilient due to AI computing demand, as evidenced by an 18.7% year-to-date increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, while traditional consumer sectors are pressured by declining household savings rates [1] - Active management funds have achieved an average excess return of 4.2 percentage points, underscoring the value of professional investment in a differentiated market [1] - Smart investment advisory systems utilizing machine learning algorithms have identified multiple small and mid-cap stocks with potential for excess returns [1] Group 3 - The fixed income market is undergoing a reconfiguration of pricing mechanisms, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuating around 4.5% and credit spreads widening by 37 basis points compared to historical averages [2] - Institutional investors are employing duration strategies and credit downgrades to capture alpha returns, with investment-grade corporate bonds beginning to show allocation value [2] - The green bond market has surpassed $2.3 trillion in size, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 19%, providing new options for ESG investors [2] Group 4 - Gold's monetary attributes are revitalized in the digital currency era, with geopolitical risks and central bank purchases pushing gold prices above $2,500 per ounce [4] - The trading volume of digital gold certificates has increased by 240% year-on-year, merging physical gold with blockchain technology, enhancing liquidity to stock-levels with an average daily trading volume of $4.7 billion [4] - A dynamic balance of risk and return is necessary for cross-asset allocation, with the optimal current portfolio ratio being 45% stocks, 30% bonds, and 25% gold, where gold's volatility contribution has decreased to 14% and its correlation coefficient with stocks has improved to 0.38 [4] - The application of smart rebalancing algorithms has effectively controlled the annualized portfolio volatility within 9.2% [4] Group 5 - The capital market is in a continuous evolution of efficiency versus risk, as evidenced by a record net outflow of 8.3 billion yuan from northbound funds under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, while gold ETFs have seen 21 consecutive weeks of net subscriptions [4] - Data indicates that a three-year systematic investment strategy has achieved an annualized return of 8.7%, significantly outperforming single-asset allocation strategies [4]

Market Overview - The recent gold market is characterized by a complex interplay of "policy suppression" and "geopolitical support" [1] - COMEX gold futures net long positions have dropped to the lowest level in nearly four quarters, indicating a potential contrarian investment signal [1] - Current gold prices are fluctuating between $3250 and $3300, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the volatile situation in the Middle East [1] Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that the RSI is oscillating within the 30-70 range, and the MACD lines are converging, suggesting a balance of bullish and bearish forces [3] - Aggressive investors are advised to short at $3290-$3300 with a target of $3265-$3250, while conservative investors should consider long positions if prices stabilize around $3250-$3260 with an RSI above 30 [4] Fundamental Variables - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 65%, but a de-escalation in the Middle East may suppress safe-haven demand [4] - Key factors to monitor include July's non-farm payroll data and developments regarding Iran's nuclear facilities, which could disrupt the current market balance [4] Platform Selection - Traditional gold investment faces three main challenges: high storage costs, poor liquidity, and lack of transparency [5] - Gold Sheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, has developed a differentiated competitive edge through technological innovation [5] - The "spread compensation plan" reduces trading costs by 30%, with spreads as low as $0.15 per ounce during market volatility [5] - The MT4/MT5 platforms ensure millisecond-level order execution, maintaining a slippage rate below 0.5% even during significant price fluctuations [5] - Each trade generates a unique "transaction code" for real-time tracking, ensuring compliance and security for client funds [5] Service Offerings - The platform connects to eight top data sources, ensuring synchronized quotes across major markets, with an annualized arbitrage return potential of 15%-25% [6] - A dual-mode investment option allows investors to convert virtual holdings into physical gold bars, providing a tangible asset during market corrections [6] - A three-dimensional model for extreme market conditions significantly reduces the risk of client liquidation during sharp price declines [7] Trend Outlook - Despite Citigroup's bearish outlook for gold prices in 2026, global central bank gold purchases are projected to reach 850 tons in 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase [8] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is providing solid support for gold prices, with China's official gold reserves increasing for eight consecutive months [8] - Gold Sheng Precious Metals is positioned as a reliable partner for investors navigating market cycles, leveraging its compliance, fund segregation, and rapid withdrawal services [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has secretly positioned itself for bearish hedging, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards gold [1] - The breaking of the 50-day moving average for gold suggests that the price level of 3200 may become the last stronghold for bulls [1] - The current market environment is characterized by a resurgence of enthusiasm in the US stock market, prompting a need for contrarian investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's ongoing conflict with former President Trump highlights the beginning of a devaluation trend for the US dollar [1] - The article suggests that the market is currently pricing in unusual logic, which may present unique investment opportunities [1]

Market Overview - On June 12, A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.13%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.37%, and ChiNext Index down 0.23% [1] - The National Index of Free Cash Flow fluctuated downwards, dropping over 0.5%, with constituent stocks showing mixed performance [1] ETF Performance - The low-fee Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) followed the index decline and was actively traded, leading in scale and share among similar products [1] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both being the lowest in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1] Investment Strategy - According to Zhongtai Securities, the index remains in a dense trading area, suggesting that the oscillating market may continue [1] - Funds are rapidly rotating around four mid-term trending sectors: dividend assets, safe assets, technology chains, and new consumption [1] - A "reverse layout" strategy is recommended, where significant sector gains indicate a time for profit-taking, while sector adjustments present opportunities for positioning [1] Index Characteristics - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) closely tracks the National Index of Free Cash Flow, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow after screening for liquidity, industry, and ROE stability [1] - The index is characterized by high quality and strong risk resistance, making it suitable for core portfolio allocation and long-term investment needs [1]