铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/23 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 17.44% | 44.2% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 22.21% | 55.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 . 1、钢厂盈利率高位将继续维持高铁水，高铁水对硅铁的需求有一定支撑。 2、硅铁持续下跌，低估值存在反弹的可能性。 3、硅铁利润处于利润区间底部，存在减产驱动，盘面存在减产扰动而反弹的可能性。 4、本周硅铁企业库存6.81万吨，环比-2.71%。 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 买卖方 套保工具 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产 ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/11 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 16.23% | 37.9% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 24.52% | 63.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/10 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 17.84% | 45.7% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 66.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/9 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 16.97% | 41.8% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 25.60% | 66.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: May 29, 2025 - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall valuation of ferrosilicon lacks upward momentum, and its price center is expected to remain weak at a low level. The ferromanganese market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery, supply - side changes, and manganese ore shipping performance [3] Summary by Relevant Content Price Range Forecast and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 19.19%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 59.5% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 29.19%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 86.6% [2] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement of regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices, they can buy ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [2] Core Contradictions - For ferrosilicon, the high - level inventory of thermal coal at ports, the continuous weak decline of the coal sector, the continuous production reduction of ferrosilicon, the difficulty in significant growth of the demand side, and the possibility of further decline in the cost side all lead to the lack of upward momentum in the overall valuation - For ferromanganese, affected by the policy disturbances in South Africa on Thursday, but the policy implementation takes a long time. The ferromanganese price rose first and then fell. The weak demand and high inventory limit the price increase, and the market has digested the impact of the South African policy [3] 利多 Factors Ferrosilicon - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for ferrosilicon - The low valuation of ferrosilicon due to continuous decline has the possibility of rebound - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 30.42%, a decrease of 0.8% compared with last week, and the weekly output is 8.89 tons, a decrease of 4.92% compared with last week [7] Ferromanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the ferromanganese industry - Although the total inventory of ferromanganese is at a high level, it shows a de - stocking trend [7] 利空 Factors Ferrosilicon - The high - level inventory of ferrosilicon suppresses its price - The high - level inventory of thermal coal at ports and the continuous weakness of the coal sector indicate that there is room for further decline in the electricity cost of ferroalloys - The hot metal output begins to decline [8][11] Ferromanganese - In the long run, the sluggish real estate market, the decline of the black sector as a whole, and the doubts about the growth of the terminal demand for steel lead to relatively weak demand for ferromanganese - The high factory inventory and high warehouse receipts, and the increase in the total inventory, suppress the price increase [8] Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On May 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 148 yuan/ton, the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 78 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 50 yuan/ton - The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5350 yuan/ton, 5420 yuan/ton, 5400 yuan/ton, 5350 yuan/ton, and 5450 yuan/ton respectively - The number of warehouse receipts was 16,953 [9] Ferromanganese - On May 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294 yuan/ton, the 01 - 05 spread was - 52 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 94 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 42 yuan/ton - The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5400 yuan/ton, 5500 yuan/ton, 5500 yuan/ton, 5550 yuan/ton, and 5500 yuan/ton respectively - The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, and Qinzhou Gabonese ore were 41.5 yuan/ton, 33.2 yuan/ton, 36.8 yuan/ton, 34 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton respectively - The price of Inner Mongolia chemical coke was 960 yuan/ton - The number of warehouse receipts was 111,154 [10]