Group 1: Report Information - The name of the report is "Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report", dated August 12, 2025, and the author is Chen Mintao [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Recent iron alloy price trends mainly follow coal price fluctuations. Current good steel mill profits and high hot metal production support iron alloy demand, but long - term real estate market is低迷, and support from home appliances and cars depends on policy stimulus. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, with weak support for ferrosilicon - manganese. Short - term anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of iron alloy prices lies in coking coal prices, with high medium - to - long - term coking coal valuation trends but severe short - term fluctuations. There is a risk of price correction [4] Group 4: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is between 5,300 and 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon - manganese is also between 5,300 and 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging - For inventory management, when finished product inventory is high and there is concern about price decline, shorting ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) can lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buying ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) can lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of 5,100 - 5,200 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferrosilicon - manganese industry [5] - This week, the demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The ferrosilicon warehouse receipt inventory was 98,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total ferrosilicon inventory was 170,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [7] - The demand for ferrosilicon - manganese in five major steel products was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the ferrosilicon - manganese warehouse receipt was 380,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total ferrosilicon - manganese inventory was 541,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region of ferrosilicon - manganese was - 98.14 yuan/ton (an increase of 70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (an increase of 85.56) [8] Bearish Factors - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly ferrosilicon output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area of ferrosilicon was - 49 yuan/ton (a decrease of 134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (a decrease of 234) [7][8] - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferrosilicon - manganese. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon - manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly ferrosilicon - manganese output was 195,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Group 6: Daily Data Ferrosilicon Daily Data - On August 12, 2025, compared with August 11, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia increased by 10, the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 14, the 05 - 09 spread increased by 26, the 09 - 01 spread decreased by 12, and the ferrosilicon warehouse receipt increased by 379. The prices of ferrosilicon spot in most regions remained unchanged, and the prices of some raw materials changed slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - Manganese Daily Data - On August 12, 2025, compared with August 11, 2025, the ferrosilicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10, the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 10, the 05 - 09 spread increased by 8, the 09 - 01 spread increased by 2, and the ferrosilicon - manganese warehouse receipt decreased by 187. The prices of ferrosilicon - manganese spot in most regions remained unchanged, and the prices of some raw materials changed slightly [9] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese, including market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze historical price and inventory trends [11][20][32]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high molten iron production provide support for ferroalloy demand. In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The anti - involution trading sentiment has faded, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to lightly test long positions after a pullback [4] Summary by Content Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is in the range of 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferromanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a recommended entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 利多 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. The silicon iron warehouse receipt inventory was 9.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory was 17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% [5][7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products was 12.52 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory was 16.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt was 38.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory was 54.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region was - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [8] 利空 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production start - up rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output was 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory was 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area was - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (-234) [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output was 19.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 11, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 22, the 01 - 05 spread was - 98, the 05 - 09 spread was 284, the 09 - 01 spread was - 186. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5600, and 5500 respectively. The prices of semi - coke small materials, Qinhuangdao thermal coal, and Yulin thermal coal were 595, 682, and 570 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 19646 [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 8, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 104, the 01 - 05 spread was - 40, the 05 - 09 spread was 138, the 09 - 01 spread was - 98, and the double - silicon spread was - 274. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5850, 5800, 5850, 5870, and 5830 respectively. The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, Qinzhou Gabonese ore, and Inner Mongolia chemical coke were 40.7, 35, 40.2, 37.8, 40.5, and 1110 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 76045 [9][10] Seasonal Data - The report also provides seasonal data on the market prices, basis, and futures spreads of silicon iron and silicon manganese, as well as the seasonal data of total silicon iron inventory and silicon manganese inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the meeting last week, the market has a clearer understanding of the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The commodity market has cooled down, and ferroalloys have returned to their fundamentals. Current high steel mill profits and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, and the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The release of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" has supported ferroalloy prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly) is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. Silicon manganese price range (monthly) is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 3.3 Core Contradiction - After the meeting, the market clarifies the anti - involution policy. Policy focuses on partial capacity governance, not overall reduction. The commodity market cools down, and ferroalloys return to fundamentals. High steel mill profits and hot metal production support demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there are still expectations for supply - side contraction. The "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" support ferroalloy prices [4] 3.4利多解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +85 yuan/ton (+6), and in Ningxia production area is 282 yuan/ton (+56) [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry [5] 3.5利空解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%. The weekly output is 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The demand for five major steel products is 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory is 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%, and the total inventory is 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and silicon manganese demand is relatively weak. The profit in the northern region is - 168.65 yuan/ton (- 101.91), and in the southern region is - 511.42 yuan/ton (- 81.09). The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The weekly output is 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The warehouse receipt is 39.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%, and the total inventory is 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] 3.6 Silicon Iron Daily Data - Data such as silicon iron basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [7] 3.7 Silicon Manganese Daily Data - Data such as silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [8] 3.8 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are presented, including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][11]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloy prices maintained a slow upward trend. After the Friday close, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, strengthening market expectations for supply - side reform. Recently, the overall price center of the black sector has shifted upward, and coal prices have gradually strengthened, supporting the rise of ferroalloy prices. In the short term, ferroalloy prices are optimistic. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloy is relatively small, with silicon - manganese in a destocking trend and silicon - iron having high inventory but supported by coal prices. The current price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment, and the fundamental resonance is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon - iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) Silicon - iron - The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is - 171 yuan/ton (+90.5), and in Ningxia production area is - 44 yuan/ton (+54) - This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory is 6.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.54% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [7] Silicon - manganese - The government's control policy on high - energy - consuming industries remains strict, and the silicon - manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulation - The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32) - Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory is 21.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; silicon - manganese warehouse receipts are 39.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%; total silicon - manganese inventory is 61.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.64% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [8] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) Silicon - iron - Silicon - iron warehouse - receipt inventory is 10.98 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.02%; total silicon - iron inventory is 17.33 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% - This week, the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel products is 2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% - The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output is 10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [9] Silicon - manganese - In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand - The demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products is 12.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [9] Daily Data Silicon - iron - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 68 (a day - on - day increase of 292, a week - on - week decrease of 74), and other basis and price data are also provided - The price of blue charcoal small materials remains unchanged at 540, Qinhuangdao thermal coal is 649 (a day - on - day increase of 2, a week - on - week increase of 12), and Yulin thermal coal remains unchanged at 510 - Silicon - iron warehouse receipts are 22124 (a day - on - day decrease of 26, a week - on - week increase of 174) [9] Silicon - manganese - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 162 (a day - on - day increase of 124, a week - on - week decrease of 38), and other basis, price and warehouse - receipt data are also provided [10][11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese include market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory, covering multiple years and different contracts [12][13][15][16][19][20][22][23][25][26][29][30][31]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Iron Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 20.20%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 54.1% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 13.67%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 18.9% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Trend - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloys maintained a slow upward trend. With profit recovery, the operating rate increased, and production was above the seasonal level. Production slightly increased, but downstream demand didn't change significantly. Silicon iron showed a stockpiling trend, and the de - stocking speed of silicon manganese slowed down. Considering factors such as the reduction of manganese ore quotes in August, the resumption of Australian ore shipments, and the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. After the market recovery, there is a high possibility of increased production due to profit repair, and supply pressure may gradually increase. Silicon iron is under pressure at 5600 - 5700, and silicon manganese at 5800 - 5900. However, the overall price center of the black sector has moved up, and coal prices are strengthening, so the downside space of ferroalloys is limited. Ferroalloys may maintain a volatile trend [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia production area profit: - 261.5 yuan/ton (+70); Ningxia production area profit: - 98 yuan/ton (+50). With profit repair, there is a possibility of increased production. The weekly operating rate of silicon iron producers is 31.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%, and the weekly output is 9.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32). The enterprise inventory is 22.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67%; the warehouse receipts are 42.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%; the total inventory is 64.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.96% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Iron - This week, the enterprise inventory is 7.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.78%. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical level after re - registration following the June cancellation rule. The expected decline in hot metal production weakens the support for ferroalloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and the decline of the black sector make the market skeptical about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese producers is 40.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, and the weekly output is 18.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 66, the 01 - 05 spread is - 60, the 05 - 09 spread is 134, the 09 - 01 spread is - 74. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related raw materials and warehouse receipts are also provided [8] Silicon Manganese - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 168, the 01 - 05 spread is - 34, the 05 - 09 spread is 74, the 09 - 01 spread is - 40, the double - silicon spread is - 298. The spot prices in different regions, the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials, and warehouse receipts are also provided [9][10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts of silicon iron market price, basis, futures spreads, and total inventory, as well as silicon manganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: July 7, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 16.57%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 39.7% [2] - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 14.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 23.9% [2] Hedging - **Inventory management**: For high finished - product inventory, sell SF2509, SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, suggested entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - **Procurement management**: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509, SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, suggested entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Strategy - **Core contradiction**: Iron alloy rebounded last week due to coal price rebound and technical buying, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mill price pressure, cost weakening, and entering the off - season of steel demand. With profit recovery, production increased, inventory is accumulating. It is expected to remain weak. [3] - **Strategy**: Rebound and sell at high prices. For silicon iron, focus on the resistance level of 5600 - 5700; for silicon manganese, focus on 5800 - 5900 [3] Group 4:利多解读 - Silicon manganese may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under government policies [3] Group 5:利空解读 Silicon Iron - Profit recovery may lead to increased production. Weekly production rate is 31.95% (up 0.25% week - on - week), weekly output is 10.02 tons (up 2.77% week - on - week) [7] - Electricity cost is expected to decline [7] - Warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration [7] - Declining hot metal output weakens support [7] Silicon Manganese - Weak real - estate market leads to weak demand [8] - Weekly production rate is 40.34% (up 1.13% week - on - week), weekly output is 18.01 tons (up 0.5% week - on - week) [8] - Warehouse receipt inventory is 44.34 tons (down 3.61% week - on - week), total inventory is 66.57 tons (down 2.36% week - on - week) [8] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 7, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 136, the spot price in Ningxia is 5250, etc. [9] Silicon Manganese - On July 7, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 254, the spot price in Ningxia is 5520, etc. [10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - Include silicon iron and silicon manganese market price seasonality, basis seasonality, and futures month - spread seasonality charts [12][13][15] - Include silicon iron and silicon manganese inventory seasonality charts [31]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/1 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 14.32% | 28.1% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 14.62% | 23.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | | | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | 多 | 期 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Ferrosilicon Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 16.28%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 38.0% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 14.87%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 25.0% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished product inventory, short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 15% hedging ratio at SF: 6,200 - 6,250, SM: 6,400 - 6,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at SF: 5,100 - 5,200, SM: 5,300 - 5,400 to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Iron alloys have a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, but the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off-season, the long-term trend of iron alloys remains relatively weak. The previous high inventory and high supply of iron alloys are gradually weakening, and the supply side maintains low supply pressure. Iron alloys will continue the de-stocking trend, but the de-stocking speed has slowed down. There is an expectation of lower electricity prices for iron alloys and the arrival of the wet season in the south, so the cost side still has a downward expectation. The July quotation of manganese ore has been lowered, and the black market is facing the expectation of negative feedback in the off-season demand trading. It is expected that iron alloys will still operate weakly. However, the trading volume of iron alloys has decreased, and some funds have left the market. When the valuation is too low, it is vulnerable to news disturbances. In the short term, there is a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. Wait for the rebound to short [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon ferrosilicon [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon profits are at the bottom of the profit range, with production cut drivers, and the futures market may rebound due to production cut disturbances [4] - This week, the silicon ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 68,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.71% [4] Silicon Manganese - The government's control policies for high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations [5] - The total silicon manganese inventory shows a de-stocking trend [5] - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5] - Silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 474,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06%; the total silicon manganese inventory was 680,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - The weekly operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises was 32.69%, a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon was 97,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.93% [6] - The coal sector continues to be weak, and there is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of iron alloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak [7] - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 36.39%, a week-on-week increase of 1.09%. The weekly output of silicon manganese was 176,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.85%. The silicon manganese enterprise inventory was 205,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.1% [7] - The July quotation of Comilog Gabon lump ore is 4.25 US dollars/ton degree, a month-on-month decrease of 0.15 US dollars/ton degree [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Ferrosilicon - On June 25, 2025, the silicon ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 86 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 18 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 24 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 05 - 09 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 09 - 01 spread was 44 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 8 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week-on-week increase of 50 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts were 6,415 tons, an increase of 6,415 tons from the previous day and a week-on-week decrease of 8,686 tons [8] Silicon Manganese - On June 25, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 196 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 98 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 78 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was -16 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 2 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 05 - 09 spread was 46 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 24 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 09 - 01 spread was -30 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 22 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [9] - The double-silicon spread was -280 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,400 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 93,468 tons, a day-on-day decrease of 301 tons and a week-on-week decrease of 1,427 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak in the long - term due to factors such as cost reduction expectations, demand off - season, and negative feedback in the black market. However, in the short - term, there may be a limited rebound due to low valuations and reduced positions, and opportunities to short after the rebound should be awaited [3]. - The negative impact of high inventory and high supply on ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is gradually weakening, and they will continue the de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 17.44% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 44.2%, and for ferromanganese, it is 22.21% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 55.4% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 15% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 6200 - 6250 and ferromanganese is at 6400 - 6500. For procurement management with low inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 25% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 5100 - 5200 and ferromanganese is at 5300 - 5400 [2]. Core Contradictions - **Long - term Weakness**: Affected by factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of terminal steel demand, ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak. The cost is expected to decline due to potential electricity price cuts and the arrival of the southern rainy season, and the negative feedback from the demand off - season in the black market also adds to the downward pressure [3]. - **De - stocking Trend**: The high - inventory and high - supply situation is improving, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with less pressure. The de - stocking trend will continue, but the speed has slowed down [3]. - **Short - term Rebound**: With the decline in positions and low valuations, there may be a short - term rebound, but the rebound space is limited [3]. 利多 Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel mill profitability maintains high molten iron production, which supports ferrosilicon demand. Low valuations, bottom - level profits, and a 2.71% week - on - week decrease in enterprise inventory to 6.81 tons also suggest potential for a rebound [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. The de - stocking trend, low valuations, a 3.06% week - on - week decrease in warehouse receipts to 47.48 tons, and a 0.73% week - on - week decrease in total inventory to 68.07 tons are positive factors [5]. 利空 Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly production rate increased by 1.34% to 32.69%, and the weekly output increased by 2.93% to 9.79 tons. The weak coal market also implies a potential further decline in electricity cost [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The long - term weakness in the real estate market and doubts about steel demand growth lead to weak demand. The weekly production rate increased by 1.09% to 36.39%, the weekly output increased by 1.85% to 17.66 tons, and the enterprise inventory increased by 5.1% to 20.59 tons. The July quotation of manganese ore decreased [7]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared to June 20. The basis in Ningxia was 150, and the warehouse receipts decreased significantly by 12535 compared to June 20 [8]. - **Ferromanganese**: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions showed some fluctuations. The basis in Inner Mongolia was 234, and the warehouse receipts increased by 49 compared to June 20 [9][10]. Seasonal Data - Multiple seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are provided, including market price seasonality, futures basis seasonality, and futures spread seasonality, which can help analyze historical price trends and fluctuations [11][25][36].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/11 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 16.23% | 37.9% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 24.52% | 63.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | ...