Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Lead prices are oscillating at a low level. The continuous decline in inventory and production cuts in secondary lead provide support, but the spot market is weak at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Hedging operations can be carried out by buying or selling within this range [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On December 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.81/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,315 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,100 lots, a decrease of 12,922 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 56,328 lots, a decrease of 210 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with a high of 17,345 yuan/ton and a low of 17,205 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,265 yuan/ton, basically flat compared to the afternoon close. The SMM 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. With the continuous decline of lead prices, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On December 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 18,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to trade within the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton by buying or selling for hedging. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global lead concentrate market continues to be in a tight balance. Domestic TC remains low, and the negative processing fee range for imported ores is expanding. Mines are reluctant to sell, leading to passive production cuts at smelters. The domestic primary lead production rate is only 60%, and smelters in Hunan, Yunnan and other places are undergoing maintenance until January. Secondary lead production is limited due to the scarcity of waste battery supplies and limited profit recovery. Overall, the supply elasticity is insufficient. Although the demand is in the off - season for lead - acid batteries, the social inventory has continuously declined to a two - year low, and the spot premium is firm, providing support for prices. It is expected that the current lead price will maintain a volatile pattern. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.03/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of scrap black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On December 11, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,155 yuan/ton and closed at 17,155 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 34,885 lots, a change of -1,564 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 35,754 lots, a change of -3,561 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,220 yuan/ton and a minimum of 17,070 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,120 yuan/ton, a 0.20% decrease from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 90 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract, and the discount narrowed further. In Hunan, the quoted price of lead smelters for the delivery brand was at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead. After some smelters sold out their inventory, the trading volume declined. As the lead price weakened, some downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices, but smelters generally delivered goods through long - term contracts, and the trading volume of spot contracts was relatively light. [2] Inventory - On December 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 21,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of December 11, the LME lead inventory was 235,475 tons, a decrease of 75 tons from the previous trading day. [2]

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Low Inventory and Marginal Decrease in Supply Lead to Strong and Volatile Lead Prices [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a supply - demand imbalance. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, with domestic and imported ore markets facing different challenges. The smelting end has both production increases and decreases due to maintenance and other factors. The consumption end, especially the automotive battery sector, has improved. With low inventory and increased smelting costs, short - term lead prices may oscillate strongly in a range. Traders are advised to hold profitable long positions and be cautious of macro - factors, while waiting on arbitrage and options [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee is 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fee is - 145 dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market is stable, with imported ore remaining tight. There are disputes in the 2026 long - term contract price negotiation. The market circulation of domestic ore is scarce as most smelters have pre - ordered fourth - quarter supplies [4]. - **Smelting**: The SMM three - province primary lead smelter operating rate is 65.92%, a 0.60% week - on - week decline. Some smelters in different regions have production changes due to maintenance. The SMM four - province recycled lead weekly operating rate is 48.37%, a 0.13% decline [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province lead battery enterprise weekly comprehensive operating rate is 74.46%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The automotive battery market has improved due to year - end production targets and approaching peak seasons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory is 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from November 27 and 7,100 tons from December 1 [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and beware of macro - factors; wait on arbitrage and options [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [5][8][11][14] 2. Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Include data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import profits and losses, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates [19][23] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Recycled - Involve the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and recycled lead smelter raw material inventory [31] 3. Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Covers global refined lead balance, production, and demand [38] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Includes import and export profits and losses, volumes, and net exports [45] 3.3 - 3.4 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise - Involve primary lead smelting enterprise profits, including processing fees, smelting profits, and production data such as operating rates and output [46][49] 3.5 - 3.6 Recycled Lead - Include recycled lead enterprise costs, profits, and supply data such as operating rates and output [52][61] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead output, recycled lead output, and refined lead net exports [65] 4. Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead Battery - Contains lead battery enterprise operating rates, dealer and enterprise finished - product inventory, and import and export volumes [72] 4.2 Lead Alloy and Its Plates - Involve lead alloy prices and import and export data of lead alloys, lead plates, and other lead plates [75] 4.3 - 4.4 Other Demand Areas - Include data on the automotive industry (production, exports, and production structure), and production data of motorcycles, communication construction, and power projects [79][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 15,885 yuan/ton to about 17,220 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries in October, 29 had year - on - year growth in added value, with different growth rates for each industry [11] 3. Spot Analysis - As of November 28, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,015 yuan/ton, 17,120 yuan/ton, and 17,020 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 4. Supply - Demand Situation - In September 2025, the global lead mine output was 392.8 thousand tons, an increase of 9.3 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years. As of November 21, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 280 yuan/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 64.5 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [21] 5. Inventory Situation - As of November 28, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 37,799 tons, a decrease of 1,122 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 263,175 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.55% [30] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Global lead mine output has increased, while lead processing fees are still slowly declining. Lead production in October remained at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline, and the inventory level was at a moderate level in recent years. LME lead inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory level remained at a high level in recent years [4][36] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees stay at a low level. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead smelting are both low, resulting in limited supply pressure. On the consumption side, it remains stable without a strong recovery signal. It is expected that the lead price will continue to fluctuate, roughly in the range of 17,000 - 17,700 RMB/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 0.00 RMB/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,075 RMB/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 9,950 RMB/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,075 RMB/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,300 RMB/ton [1] Futures Market - On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,115 RMB/ton and closed at 17,045 RMB/ton, a decrease of 90 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 40,496 lots, an increase of 2,076 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest for the whole trading day was 52,466 lots, a decrease of 422 lots from the previous trading day. During the day, the price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 17,130 RMB/ton and a minimum of 17,010 RMB/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,065 RMB/ton and closed at 17,055 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. As reported by SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 75 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly sold through long - term contracts, with few spot quotes. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 80 - 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. As the lead price declined, the discount in traders' quotes gradually narrowed, and large - discount goods were traded. Lead smelters in Hunan generally held firm on prices. Branded lead was quoted at a premium of 50 RMB/ton to the SMM 1 lead, with some transactions from rigid - demand buyers. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. Traders in Yunnan quoted at a discount of 250 - 200 RMB/ton to the average SMM 1 lead price for ex - factory sales. With the weak and fluctuating lead price, downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and their willingness to stock up at low prices was poor. The market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and overall spot trading was light [2] Inventory - On November 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 25, the LME lead inventory was 264,575 tons, an increase of 2,425 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy Overall Strategy - The overall strategy for the lead market is "Neutral" due to the weak supply - demand situation [4] Option Strategy - The option strategy recommended is to sell a wide strangle [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddles [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market has light trading volume, and the lead price continues to fluctuate. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by costs on the downside. In the short - term, it should be treated with a fluctuating mindset, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm, with the range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On November 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.21/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,325 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 17,225 lots, a decrease of 8,860 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 17,250 lots, a decrease of 5,231 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,265 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,170 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,300 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Henan lead smelters mainly focused on long - term contract deliveries, with few quotations for spot sales. Traders quoted a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory prices, and some quoted a discount of 120 - 130 yuan/ton. Hunan lead smelters had low inventories, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for a small amount of rigid demand transactions. Yunnan holders quoted a discount of 250 - 300 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the premiums of some local holders decreased. The spot market trading was light [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On November 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 19, the LME lead inventory was 264,475 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is characterized by a co - existence of tight mine supply and differentiated consumption, with continuous inventory accumulation before delivery. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by cost on the downside. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm. The price range is approximately between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$16.88/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On November 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 55,068 lots, a decrease of 19,523 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 69,126 lots, a decrease of 5,459 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,370 yuan/ton and a minimum of 17,215 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,195 yuan/ton, a 0.49% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory sales; in Hunan, lead smelters quoted at a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, but the trading was light; in Yunnan, holders quoted at a discount of 250 - 300 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. In the context of consecutive declines in lead prices, the purchasing attitudes of downstream enterprises varied. The trading was acceptable in the northern and eastern regions, while it was average in the southern regions [2] Inventory - On November 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 18, the LME lead inventory was 264,800 tons, an increase of 43,650 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead investment is to take a neutral stance. For options, a sell - wide - straddle strategy is recommended [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Core View - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead production is gradually resuming. The demand for lead batteries is constrained by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although social inventories are at historical lows, they are expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive. Overall, the upside of lead prices is limited by weak consumption, while the downside is supported by costs. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$30.22/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of used electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of used white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of used black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,430 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 44,172 lots, a decrease of 2,244 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 62,498 lots, a decrease of 3,201 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,555 yuan/ton and a low of 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,420 yuan/ton and closed at 17,405 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures weakened and fluctuated during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in making transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for transactions. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally sluggish spot market [2]. Inventory - On November 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 205,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. - Arbitrage: Suspend for now [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [3] Group 2: Core View - Raw material supply remains tight, suppressing primary lead production while secondary lead production recovers slowly. High lead prices restrain downstream battery demand, leading to reduced consumption due to enterprise production cuts. Although social inventories are at a historical low, they are expected to accumulate in November with supply recovery and imports. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, with an estimated oscillation range of approximately 16,900 - 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On November 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.40/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,416 lots, an increase of 13,741 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 65,699 lots, a decrease of 393 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,585 yuan/ton and a low of 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Graphs - The report includes 16 graphs covering various aspects such as lead price premiums, mine treatment charges, production rates, inventories, price differences, and battery production rates [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while the secondary lead production is slowly resuming. The demand for lead-acid batteries from downstream is constrained by high lead prices, and the production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although the social inventory is at a historical low, it is expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive at the port. Overall, the lead price is suppressed by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The report suggests paying attention to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery, with the expected lead price volatility range approximately between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.32/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1]. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,415 yuan/ton and closed at the same price, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 32,675 lots, a decrease of 2,303 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 66,092 lots, a decrease of 1,997 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,490 yuan/ton and a low of 17,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotes of holders were at a discount of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales, and later the discount widened to 170 yuan/ton for transactions. In Hunan, smelters with low inventories held firm on prices, with quotes at a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales. Some manufacturers mainly fulfilled long-term contracts and suspended spot sales. In Yunnan, holders sold at a discount of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for a small amount of transactions. With the lead price oscillating strongly, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises improved slightly, and market transactions were fair [2]. Inventory - On November 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of November 5, the LME lead inventory was 212,525 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. The report suggests that due to the current situation of raw material supply and demand and inventory trends, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and investors should pay attention to inventory changes and consumption recovery [3]. - Arbitrage: Suspended [3]