Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demands from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price should be treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -31.32 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,925 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,967 lots, an increase of 1,410 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,907 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,965 yuan/ton and the lowest point at 16,760 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On June 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of June 19, the LME lead inventory was 287,425 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Treat the lead price with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1 - The mainstream ex-factory price of recycled refined lead is stable against the average price of SMM 1 lead, with some traders quoting a discount of around 50 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 16, the prices for 1 lead ingots in various markets are as follows: Shanghai Huaton at 16,850 yuan/ton, Shanghai Youse at 16,750 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Nanchu at 16,775 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's lead futures main contract closed at 16,980.00 yuan/ton on June 16, with a slight increase of 0.18% [2] Group 2 - On June 16, the London Metal Exchange reported lead registered warrants at 186,525 tons and canceled warrants at 76,950 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons; total lead inventory is at 263,475 tons, also down by 1,500 tons [3] - A lead smelter in Central China is currently out of operation due to equipment failure, while high prices for recycled lead in East China are reported, with some downstream stating that prices are 100 yuan/ton higher than recycled lead [3] - According to a report from Galaxy Futures, recent increases in silver prices have improved the smelting profits for primary lead, leading to a slight increase in operational sentiment; however, recycled lead smelting plants are still facing losses, limiting operational rates [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of primary lead and recycled lead varies, with marginal increase in supply pressure. The off - season of lead - acid battery consumption continues, and the terminal sectors are slightly differentiated. Enterprises mainly accept long - term orders. With supply increasing and demand weak, there is insufficient upward drive for lead prices. However, due to the continuous existence of structural contradictions in raw material supply and demand, cost factors support lead prices. As the fundamental contradictions are not significantly intensified, it is expected that lead prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][80]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In May 2025, Shanghai lead first increased and then decreased. In the first half of the month, with a series of domestic financial policies, the easing of Sino - US tariffs, and the strengthening of the interest - rate cut expectation due to the cooling of US inflation, the market risk appetite improved, and lead prices oscillated strongly. But it was difficult to break through the resistance at 17,000 yuan, and the price slightly回调. In the second half of the month, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and concerns about the US debt problem led to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the arrival of crude lead eased the raw material pressure, the price of waste batteries decreased slightly, the cost loosened, and the off - season of consumption remained unchanged, with increasing inventory pressure. Lead prices gave back the gains from the first half of the month. By May 30, the futures price closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.31%. - LME lead first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated sideways. At the beginning of the month, tariff concerns gradually cooled, and LME inventory slightly declined from a high level, so LME lead stabilized and rebounded. Subsequently, market sentiment fluctuated around economic pressure, inflation, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the second half of the month, LME inventory increased significantly, strengthening the expectation of overseas surplus, and the lead price was under pressure. The resistance at $2,000/ton was obvious, and the futures price slightly declined and oscillated. Finally, it closed at $1,963.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.98% [8]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: In March 2025, global lead concentrate production was 367,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative production from January to March was 1.028 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5%. ILZSG predicts that the global lead mine production in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons. Overseas lead mines are producing steadily, and domestic lead concentrate production is also increasing. It is estimated that the global lead concentrate increment in 2025 is 160,000 tons, with 90,000 tons overseas and 70,000 tons in China. The contradiction of supply - demand mismatch in lead concentrate is expected to persist in the medium term [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees decline month - on - month, and lead concentrate imports decrease month - on - month**: In June 2025, the average monthly processing fees for domestic and overseas lead concentrates were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/metal ton and - 10 dollars/dry ton respectively. In April 2025, lead concentrate imports were 111,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.13%. The cumulative imports from January to April were 448,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41%. The import of silver concentrate also decreased in April. The supply - demand gap of lead concentrate exists in the long - term, and there is still a slight downward pressure on processing fees [19]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is gentle**: In March 2025, global refined lead production was 1.1316 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.72%. The cumulative production from January to March was 3.2584 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.7%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Overseas, there are no large - scale new refineries in recent years, mainly relying on the resumption and ramping - up of previous shut - down refineries. In China, new recycled lead refineries are the main focus, but projects are often postponed due to raw material constraints [25]. - **Electrolytic lead production in April was lower than expected, and supply mainly recovered in May**: In May 2025, electrolytic lead production was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The cumulative production from January to May was 1.562 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In June, due to more refinery overhauls and tightened lead concentrate supply, it is expected that electrolytic lead production will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. For the whole year of 2025, electrolytic lead supply is expected to increase steadily [31]. - **The price of waste batteries moves up, and recycled lead refineries gradually resume production**: In May 2025, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In June, the price of waste batteries is expected to move up slightly. In May, recycled refined lead production was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In June, production is expected to rebound to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9%, but the raw material supply problem still needs attention [36][37]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: In March 2025, global refined lead consumption was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The cumulative consumption from January to March was 3.242 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons. In 2025, global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on the lead - battery demand in the automotive industry [46][47]. - **Lead - battery consumption is in the off - season, and sectors are differentiated**: In May, lead - battery enterprises maintained the characteristics of the seasonal off - season, with the five - province battery enterprise operating rate at 70.45% at the end of May. The production of electric - bicycle and automotive lead - battery markets changed little, while the operating rate of energy - storage battery enterprises was relatively good. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating rate may rebound slightly but will remain in the range of 70 - 73% [54]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports**: In April 2025, the refined lead export volume was 3,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54%. The refined lead import volume in April was 4,734 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3496.9% and a month - on - month increase of 65.1%. The lead - battery export volume in April was 2.0463 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to battery exports [55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead - battery consumption prospect marginally**: In the terminal demand of lead - batteries, automotive and electric - bicycle batteries account for a large proportion. In the automotive sector, the lead - battery demand is strong, with both replacement and new - car supporting demands increasing. In the electric - bicycle sector, policies such as trade - in and the new national standard are beneficial to lead - battery consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the market scale is growing, and lead - battery demand also has growth potential [69][70][71]. 2.4 Overseas Inventory First Decreases and Then Increases, and There is Pressure on Domestic Inventory Accumulation - In May, LME inventory first decreased and then increased. By May 30, the inventory was 284,200 tons, a monthly increase of 20,000 tons. The domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. By May 29, the inventory was 49,400 tons, a monthly increase of 4,600 tons. In June, inventory is expected to rise again, but the accumulation volume is limited [76][78]. 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrate remains unchanged. In June, the domestic and overseas processing fees decreased slightly. The electrolytic lead production in May increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than expected, and it decreased in June. The recycled lead production decreased significantly in May and increased in June, but the resumption rhythm is restricted by raw material supply and profitability. The demand for electric - bicycle and automotive lead - batteries remains in the off - season, while the energy - storage battery demand is supported. The Shanghai - London ratio has limited boost to lead ingot exports. In the long - term, policy supports consumption, but the demand growth rate is stable but not strong. Overall, the supply pressure increases marginally, and lead prices are expected to oscillate widely [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The current lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract is expected to be in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Spot Market - On May 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -26.12 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells all decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On May 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 42,980 lots, an increase of 22,116 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 45,301 lots, an increase of 28,537 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,895 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,670 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,685 yuan/ton and closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On May 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 22, the LME lead inventory was 295,825 tons, an increase of 13,700 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ore. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The current lead price should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract range is between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$18.06/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead or at a discount of 180 - 170 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for rigid demand transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Smelters in Anhui and Jiangxi tried to hold prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were traded at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. As the lead price continued to weaken, apart from a small number of downstream enterprises making purchases at low prices, most enterprises still made purchases mainly for rigid demand. The spot market improved slightly compared to the previous day [2] Futures - On May 20, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 24,386 lots, a decrease of 2,507 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 22,798 lots, a decrease of 4,590 lots compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a maximum of 16,880 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On May 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, a change of 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 20, the LME lead inventory was 245,750 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core Viewpoints - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2506 contract is in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$4.45/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 75 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,575 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, changing by -10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 26,893 lots, changing by -5,591 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 27,388 lots, changing by -1,174 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,985 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,835 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Market Conditions - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price fell by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures fluctuated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for closing deals. As the lead price continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was dull [2] Inventory - On May 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, changing by 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 246,350 tons, changing by -1,825 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

研究报告 铅周报 铅供给有所增加，沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铅期货主力合约 PB2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格 范围在 16835 元/吨附近至 17050 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 中美互降关税落地后，关税政策调整对铅价的影响正在逐步 减弱。铅现货价格小幅回升，铅贴水有所扩大。铅加工费从底部 逐步回升，但仍然处于底部区域。铅产量持续增长，铅企业开工 率逐步攀升。电动自行车产量保持增长，铅蓄电池需求或增长。 沪铅库存大幅上升，库存水平处于近年来低位。LME 铅库存持续 下降，库存水平处于近年来高位。 【后市展望】 铅价或以震荡趋势为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铅供给变化 超预期。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明： ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE lead fluctuated around 17,000 yuan. The easing of tariff concerns and the release of Fed's rate - cut remarks improved market sentiment, increasing the weight of fundamental pricing. The fundamentals showed a double - weak supply - demand situation. The supply of lead ore was not extremely tight due to imports, while the supply of recycled lead decreased due to raw material shortages and losses, and new production capacity was postponed. On the demand side, lead - acid batteries were in the off - season, and some enterprises planned to have a 5 - day holiday for May Day, 2.5 days more than last year. With the co - existence of reductions and restarts in primary lead smelters and greater impacts from recycled lead maintenance and postponed production, the supply decreased, but battery consumption was poor. The lead price had limited unilateral drivers and was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,895 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1927.5 dollars/ton to 1945 dollars/ton, an increase of 17.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.77 to 8.71; the SHFE inventory decreased by 11,406 tons to 45,654 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 7,550 tons to 274,075 tons; the social inventory decreased from 54,700 tons to 46,200 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract of SHFE lead fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.53%. The LME lead rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, the offers of different brands in different regions had certain premiums or discounts to the SHFE lead 2505 contract. The downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing large - discount goods increased, and the trading activity improved. As of April 25th, the LME inventory decreased by 7,550 tons to 274,075 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 11,406 tons to 45,654 tons. As of April 24th, the SMM five - region social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons compared to April 17th and by 8,500 tons compared to April 21st [5][6]. Industry News - In May, the monthly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were flat month - on - month. A small - scale lead and precious - rare metal recycling and smelting capacity in Guangxi was expected to be put into operation in Q4 2025, with an expected electrolytic lead production capacity of 60,000 tons/year. A smelter in South China started lead - zinc smelting maintenance, expected to affect about 10,000 tons of zinc and 4,000 tons of lead. A large - scale primary lead smelter in Henan resumed production. A new recycled lead smelter in Southwest China postponed its production to mid - May. Some recycled lead smelters in Central and East China reduced production due to raw material shortages. In March, the import volume of lead concentrates was 116,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 59.69%. The total import of refined lead and lead products was 11,933 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.35%, and the export was 5,228 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.6%. In 2025, the global refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The global refined lead demand is expected to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, the global lead mine output is expected to grow by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons, and the global refined lead production is expected to grow by 1.9% to 13.27 million tons [8][9]. Related Charts - The report includes charts such as SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory situations of SHFE and LME, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery price, profit of recycled lead enterprises, lead concentrate processing fees, production of primary lead and recycled refined lead, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][12][16]

期货研究报告|铅周报 2025-04-20 供需两弱情况下铅价或维持震荡格局 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03036024 投资咨询号：Z0014660 联系人 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 原生铅方面，4 月 18 日当周，三省原生铅开工率升 1.24%至 63.25%。河南部分检修减 产冶炼厂暂未复产，个别小规模厂本周恢复，湖南有一厂设备调试产量降，预期月底 恢复，另有一厂提产。云南一厂 4 月初复产后稳定。样本外，江西一厂减产后未恢 复，华东一厂 4 月常规检修延至 5 月初。 再生铅方面，4 月 18 日当周，SMM 再生铅四省周开工率达 56.65%，环比降 4.54 个百 分点。淡季下，回收商收货难致炼厂原料供应不足，下游铅锭需求有限使精铅售价 低、炼厂承压 ...