铅价震荡
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新能源及有色金属日报:基本面矛盾有限,铅价维持震荡格局-20251105
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while the secondary lead production is slowly resuming. The demand for lead-acid batteries from downstream is constrained by high lead prices, and the production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although the social inventory is at a historical low, it is expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive at the port. Overall, the lead price is suppressed by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The report suggests paying attention to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery, with the expected lead price volatility range approximately between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.32/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1]. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,415 yuan/ton and closed at the same price, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 32,675 lots, a decrease of 2,303 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 66,092 lots, a decrease of 1,997 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,490 yuan/ton and a low of 17,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotes of holders were at a discount of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales, and later the discount widened to 170 yuan/ton for transactions. In Hunan, smelters with low inventories held firm on prices, with quotes at a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales. Some manufacturers mainly fulfilled long-term contracts and suspended spot sales. In Yunnan, holders sold at a discount of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for a small amount of transactions. With the lead price oscillating strongly, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises improved slightly, and market transactions were fair [2]. Inventory - On November 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of November 5, the LME lead inventory was 212,525 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. The report suggests that due to the current situation of raw material supply and demand and inventory trends, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and investors should pay attention to inventory changes and consumption recovery [3]. - Arbitrage: Suspended [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游接货热情略有好转,但铅价仍维持震荡格局-20251031
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Hold off [4] Core View - The domestic mine supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have a low willingness to purchase high-silver mines. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to a significant reduction in domestic inventories. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, the lead price may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On October 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.12/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,200 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,360 yuan/ton and closed at 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,452 lots, down 6,873 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 69,287 lots, down 4,231 lots from the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a high of 17,405 yuan/ton and a low of 17,335 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,355 yuan/ton and closed at 17,375 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, down 50 tons from the same period last week. As of October 30, the LME lead inventory was 224,175 tons, down 700 tons from the previous trading day [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游维持刚需采购,铅价继续震荡格局-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:22
Group 1: Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Group 2: Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, but smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous metals sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot - On October 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.54/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 10,850 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 73,518 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,410 yuan/ton and a low of 17,315 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,360 yuan/ton and closed at 17,360 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 110 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, some smelters with low inventories raised prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 20 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead for ex-factory sales, while traders actively lowered premiums for sales, quoting at a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the trading of scattered goods remained light [2] Inventory - On October 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 224,875 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:基本面无突出矛盾,铅价难改震荡格局-20251023
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Report gives a neutral rating for the lead industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth highlights. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some regions is also tight. Therefore, the lead price is showing a range - bound pattern, with an expected trading range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On October 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.69/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium, SMM Guangdong lead price, SMM Henan lead price, and SMM Tianjin lead price all remained unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference, waste electric vehicle battery price, waste white - shell battery price, and waste black - shell battery price also remained unchanged [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On October 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,125 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 29,011 lots (a decrease of 14,526 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 26,547 lots (a decrease of 7,009 lots). During the night session, it opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous day. Different regions had different pricing strategies for lead. The regional supply of lead ingots remained tight, and with the approaching end of the current - month long - term contracts, the supply of spot goods was limited. Some downstream buyers made purchases as needed, while others waited for the execution of new - month long - term contracts [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On October 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 22, the LME lead inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Strategy - The lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游仍以刚需采购为主,铅价难改震荡格局-20251022
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Although terminal consumption has slightly recovered under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth drivers. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some areas is tight. As a result, the lead price is currently in a range - bound oscillation pattern, with an expected oscillation range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 21, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.78/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,130 yuan/ton and closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,537 lots, an increase of 15,881 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,556 lots, a decrease of 4,639 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,210 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton the previous day. Lead smelters in Henan offered a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead, and holders offered a discount of 80 - 60 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. Smelters in Hunan offered a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales. Holders in Yunnan offered a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead or a discount of 350 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, the supply of electrolytic lead in some areas was slightly tight, and the trading of scattered orders was fair [2] Inventory - On October 21, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 21, the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral. The option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3][4]
新能源及有色金属日报:散单成交尚可,铅价高位震荡-20251021
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth highlights. On the supply side, the processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some areas is also tight. As a result, the lead price is currently in a range-bound pattern, with an expected trading range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.85/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On October 20, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,075 yuan/ton and closed at 17,060 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,656 lots, a decrease of 11,986 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 38,195 lots, a decrease of 2,023 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 17,055 - 17,155 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,130 yuan/ton and closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 20, the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Overall Strategy - Maintain a neutral view on the lead market, expecting the lead price to fluctuate between 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Option Strategy - Recommend selling a wide strangle [4]
新能源及有色金属日报:短期基本面矛盾有限,铅价继续震荡-20251017
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 05:58
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (The original text uses Chinese, and there is no direct English equivalent provided, so it's presented as in the original) [4] Core View - Currently, the processing fee for lead concentrates remains low despite the rising by - product prices, and there are no significant contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. It is predicted that the lead price will fluctuate in the range of approximately 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 44.09 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16950 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium/discount changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17110 yuan/ton and closed at 17100 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 32242 lots, a change of - 9015 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 41899 lots, a change of - 2133 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17150 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17090 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17090 yuan/ton and closed at 17045 yuan/ton, a 0.41% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Lead smelting enterprises in Henan had low inventories, and holders quoted at a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for pre - sale, with spot goods in a queuing - for - pick - up state. Smelters in Hunan quoted at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for sale, and some manufacturers suspended quoting after selling out their inventories. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for pre - sale. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and there were large regional differences in lead market supply, with some high - price spot goods in supply - tight areas having transactions [2] Inventory - On October 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 3.8 million tons, a change of 0.17 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of October 16, the LME lead inventory was 252000 tons, a change of - 2775 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:现货成交仍清淡,铅价维持震荡格局-20251016
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 03:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (The original text is in Chinese, no English equivalent provided here) [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At present, the processing fee of lead concentrate is still low despite the continuous increase in by - product prices, and there are no major contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting the production - based - on - sales model. It is expected that the lead price will show a volatile pattern, roughly in the range of 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 15, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 44.48 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,010 yuan/ton and closed at 17,110 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 41,257 lots, a change of - 1,944 lots compared with the previous trading day. The positions for the whole trading day were 44,032 lots, a change of 435 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,135 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,960 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,110 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead or a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, and traders quoted a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract. In Guangdong, smelters maintained a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for rigid - demand transactions. Downstream consumption showed a slight decline, with battery enterprises mainly taking long - term orders and making a small amount of rigid - demand purchases. The spot market transactions were rather light [2] Inventory - On October 15, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 36,000 tons, a change of - 900 tons compared with the same period last week. As of October 15, the LME lead inventory was 254,775 tons, a change of 8,225 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:蓄电池企业少量逢低采购,铅价维持震荡-20251015
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 05:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Suspended [4] Core View of the Report - Currently, the processing fee for lead concentrates remains low despite the continuous increase in by - product prices, and there are no significant contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. It is predicted that the lead price will show a volatile pattern, roughly ranging from 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 45.35 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On October 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,050 yuan/ton and closed at 17,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,201 lots, a decrease of 23,393 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 43,597 lots, a decrease of 391 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,155 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,035 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,010 yuan/ton and closed at 17,015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of October 14, the LME lead inventory was 246,550 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]
市场现货成交仍陷清淡,铅价在万七附近持续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is cautiously bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price has been oscillating around 17,000 yuan/ton, with light spot market transactions. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed signs of stabilizing or rebounding. With the upcoming National Day holiday, downstream restocking enthusiasm may be stimulated. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging, with the buying range suggested between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 42.13 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1]. Futures Market - On September 24, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,085 yuan/ton and closed at 17,065 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,329 lots, down 5,429 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 61,071 lots, down 2,870 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with a high of 17,110 yuan/ton and a low of 17,035 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,085 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the afternoon close [2]. Inventory - On September 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 55,000 tons, down 12,900 tons from the previous week. As of September 24, the LME lead inventory was 219,725 tons, down 250 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3].