Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Affected by the significantly lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, the gold price rose sharply and the Shanghai copper price dropped significantly on the night of last Friday, indicating a significant decline in investors' risk preference and demand expectations. On Wednesday night, affected by the low PPI data, investors continued to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, leading to a rise in copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, multiple research institutions predict that China's refined copper production this month will decline by 4%-5% month-on-month, the first decline in September since 2016. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to decline by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9% month-on-month, further amplifying the effect of supply contraction. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rods increased by 1.66 percentage points to 69.78% month-on-month. Affected by Document No. 770, the operating situation of recycled copper rods is still unclear. In the short term, copper prices may first decline and then rise. The impact of the weak US employment data on copper prices may continue, and in the short term, copper prices may still seek support around 79,000 yuan per ton. If the non-farm payroll data does not ferment further, combined with the expected month-on-month increase in the operating rate of copper rods and the decline in LME copper inventories, copper prices may find support at the 20-day moving average and still have the potential to rise above 80,000 yuan per ton [4]. Key Points Summary by Section Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management Suggestions - **Copper Price Volatility**: The latest copper price is 79,790 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long spot positions, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [3]. - **Raw Material Management**: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, for short spot positions, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,790 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous one contract rose 140 yuan to 79,790 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.18%. The Shanghai copper continuous three contract was unchanged at 79,740 yuan/ton. The LME copper 3M contract rose 95.5 US dollars to 10,012 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.96%. The Shanghai-London ratio was 8.11, a decrease of 0.02 or -0.25% [8]. - **Spot Data**: - The prices of Shanghai Non-ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non-ferrous decreased by 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.11%, and 0.14% respectively. The Shanghai Non-ferrous and Shanghai Wumao spot premiums decreased by 33.33% and 37.5% respectively [14]. Copper Market Supply and Demand Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: - The US and other countries reach an agreement on tariff policies. - The increase in interest rate cut expectations leads to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non-ferrous metals. - The lower support level rises [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Tariff policies fluctuate. - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies. - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy leads to extremely high COMEX inventories [7]. Copper Inventory Data - **Domestic Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 19,126 tons, a daily increase of 0.24%. The international copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,418 tons [20]. - **LME Inventories**: The total LME copper inventories decreased by 225 tons to 155,050 tons, a daily decrease of 0.14%. The European inventories remained unchanged, while the Asian inventories decreased by 225 tons [22]. - **COMEX Inventories**: The total COMEX copper inventories increased by 7,244 tons to 308,706 tons, a weekly increase of 2.4% [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the production of refined copper in China is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The substitution of scrap copper is expected to increase marginally, but increased exports may keep inventory relatively stable. Overseas demand is expected to be fair, but hidden inventory may become more explicit. Macro uncertainties may bring downward volatility risks to the market, increasing the pressure of phased shock adjustment on copper prices, with support coming from low inventory and tight raw material supply. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be 77,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 9,300 - 10,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to try short - selling on rebounds [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - Supply: The short - term supply - demand relationship of copper concentrates remains tight, but the long - term tightness is slightly weaker than expected. Domestic refined copper production remains high, and it is expected to rise in July [10] - Demand: In June, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China continued to grow rapidly, but the growth rate in July is expected to drop to near zero. Overseas manufacturing sentiment is improving marginally, and short - term demand is expected to be fair [10] - Import and Export: In June, the loss of SHFE copper imports dropped significantly. Feed - processing exports are expected to increase, and imports are expected to decrease [10] - Inventory: In June, SHFE and LME inventories decreased, while COMEX and bonded - area inventories increased. It is estimated that domestic inventory will be relatively stable in July, and overseas inventory will continue to increase [10] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: In June, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main SHFE copper contract rose 2.93%, and the LME 3M copper contract rose 4.01%. Factors such as tight copper supply outside the US, the US tax and spending bill, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts jointly pushed up copper prices. The US dollar index fell 2.7%, and the offshore RMB appreciated 0.69% [21] - Market Spreads: In June, the spot supply of LME copper was tight, and the spot premium rose significantly. The LME copper price outperformed the SHFE copper price. The loss of SHFE copper spot imports once exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton. The COMEX - LME copper spread widened further [24] - Inventory & Basis: As of the end of June, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 426,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the end of May. LME copper inventory continued to decrease in June and increased in July. COMEX copper inventory continued to rise. The LME Cash/3M premium once exceeded 300 US dollars/ton and dropped to around 100 US dollars/ton in early July. The domestic basis quote dropped to about 110 yuan/ton [27][30] - Fund Sentiment: As of the end of June, CFTC fund positions remained net long, with the net - long ratio rising to 11.3%. The LME investment fund's long - position ratio increased. In July, market sentiment is mainly affected by global trade, inventory changes, and US policy expectations [33] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Copper Ore: In May, copper production in Chile, the world's largest copper - producing country, remained at a multi - year high, and production in Peru was seasonally high in April. In June, Ivanhoe Mines lowered the annual production guidance of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine by about 150,000 tons. In June, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports decreased, and the processing fee TC continued to weaken, with the spot TC at - 44.8 US dollars/ton at the end of June. The semi - annual long - term TC between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters was set at 0 US dollars/ton [38][41] - Refined Copper: In June, domestic processing fees for blister copper were flat month - on - month, and the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, rose. Smelting maintenance increased in June, and domestic refined copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In July, smelting maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase by about 15,000 tons [44][48] - Recycled Copper: In June, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,350 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper improved. The operating rate of recycled - copper rod enterprises rebounded. In July, the substitution of scrap copper for electrolytic copper is expected to increase but with limited scope [51] 3.3.2 Demand - China: In June, domestic apparent consumption continued to grow rapidly year - on - year, with an estimated 1.357 million tons. The official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in June. The production of copper products increased by more than 6% in the first five months of 2025. The operating rates of copper product, copper rod, wire and cable, copper tube, and copper strip enterprises showed different trends. The demand for clean energy is expected to weaken marginally after the "531 New Policy". Real estate transactions improved marginally in June, and automobile sales were slightly weaker than last year [54][57][60] - Overseas: In June, the manufacturing sentiment of major overseas developed economies strengthened. According to ICSG data, global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year in April 2025, with a 3.8% increase from January to April [72] 3.4 Macro Analysis - In May, US employment data weakened slightly, and in June, new non - farm payrolls and the unemployment rate were better than expected. US inflation data stabilized and slightly increased in May. Short - term strong employment data in the US reduced the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, and previous trading based on rate - cut expectations may cool down. In June, the US dollar index remained weak, and the 10 - year US inflation expectation was unclear in direction [76][78]

我国是电解铜冶炼大国，占全球产能的50%以上，但铜矿产出不足，需大量进口铜精矿。2025年1-4月 中国进口铜精矿累计1003.2万吨，同比增长7.4%，当前铜精矿对外依存度高达90%。因此海外矿山的扰 动对于未来供应减少的影响边际增强。 2025年上半年铜价走势一波三折，在供应减产预期持续升温的背景下，铜价重心整体偏强。后市来看， 市场料将交易减产的预期和需求韧性支撑，宏观边际修复背景下，铜价走势或延续偏强运行。 2025年上半年国内电解铜现货价格振幅较宽，整体呈现"N"字型走势，截至2025年6月23日，国内1#电 解铜现货均价为78345元／吨，较去年年末上涨4575元／吨，涨幅为6.20%。上半年均价78647.55元／ 吨，同比上涨3.43%。 分析上半年铜价波动的主要影响因素，供应扰动边际增强的影响不容忽视。铜矿是不可再生资源，随着 矿山老龄化，全球铜矿增量逐年下降，铜精矿产量增幅远不能满足增长需求。 往后看，后期铜精矿紧张趋势或有所加剧，叠加冶炼厂可能陆续进入年内计划检修环节，故下半年产量 水平可能略低于上半年。预计2025年下半年国内电解铜产量为703万吨，较上半年减少26万吨，环比降 幅3. ...