伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铜库存整体继续回升，1月29日库存增至逾八个月新高176,075吨，而后库存小幅回落，最新库存水平为 174,975吨。 刘明康 上周，纽铜库存继续累积，最新库存水平为577,724吨，再创阶段性新高。 156 5309 0867 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 上海期货交易所最新公布数据显示，1月30日当周，沪铜库存继续累积，周度库存增加3.13%至233,004吨，增至近十个月新高。国际铜库存减少101吨至 15,794吨。 2023年以来三大交易所铜库存对比 以下为2026年1月以来三大交易所铜库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | - ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a significant increase in copper inventory, reaching 171,700 tons, the highest level in eight months [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that copper inventory rose by 5.82% to 225,937 tons, marking a nine-and-a-half-month high [2] - International copper inventory decreased by 70 tons to 15,895 tons [2] Group 2 - The latest copper inventory levels for major exchanges as of January 23, 2026, are as follows: COMEX at 562,605 tons, LME at 171,700 tons, and SHIP at 225,937 tons [5] - A comparison of copper inventory levels since January 2026 shows a consistent upward trend in LME and SHIP inventories, while COMEX inventory also increased [5] - The copper industry in China faces three main challenges: rising dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME copper futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a current price of $12,846.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.39% increase from the opening price [1] - On January 20, LME copper futures opened at $12,933.0, reached a high of $12,988.0, and closed at $12,796.5, marking a decrease of 1.47% [2] - The registered copper warehouse receipts at LME on January 20 were 108,500 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 750 tons to 47,800 tons, while total copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons [2] Group 2 - On January 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts of 148,193 tons, which is a decrease of 4,462 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.8, indicating an import loss of 1,447.22 yuan per ton, compared to a loss of 1,345.92 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME copper futures prices are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with a current price of $12,921.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.88% increase from the opening price [1] - On January 16, LME copper futures opened at $13,096.5 per ton, reached a high of $13,183.0, and closed at $12,808.5, marking a decrease of 2.59% [2] - As of January 16, LME registered copper warrants totaled 94,000 tons, while canceled warrants decreased by 525 tons, resulting in a total copper inventory of 143,575 tons, which increased by 2,450 tons [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.82, indicating an import loss of ¥1,218.18 per ton, which improved from a loss of ¥1,465.85 per ton on the previous trading day [2] - On January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a copper futures warrant of 160,417 tons, which decreased by 2,300 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that copper inventories initially increased and then decreased, with the latest inventory level at 138,975 tons, marking a near two-month low [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a significant accumulation of copper inventory, with a weekly increase of 24.22% to 180,543 tons, reaching a near nine-month high [2] - International copper inventory remained stable at 10,746 tons, while New York copper inventory continued to rise, reaching 517,999 tons, a new phase high [2] Group 2 - The data from the three major exchanges shows a consistent trend in copper inventory levels, with specific figures for January 9, 2026, indicating 517,999 tons at COMEX, 138,975 tons at LME, and 180,543 tons at SHFE [5] - A comparison of copper inventory levels since the beginning of 2023 highlights fluctuations across the three exchanges, reflecting market dynamics [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that LME copper futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase of 1.32% [1] - On January 6, LME copper futures opened at $13,054 per ton, reached a high of $13,387.5, and closed at $13,254.5, reflecting a change of 1.28% [2] - The current trading price of copper is reported at $13,163.5 per ton, with a daily high of $13,285 and a low of $13,068 [1] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is reported at 7.88, indicating an import loss of 813.35 yuan per ton, which improved from a previous loss of 1,356.7 yuan per ton [2] - As of January 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 93,271 tons, an increase of 2,989 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 114,200 tons, with canceled receipts at 31,875 tons, a decrease of 775 tons, while total copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons [2]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, opening at $12,534 per ton and currently at $12,643.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.68% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $12,651 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $12,487 per ton [1] Group 2 - On December 30, LME copper futures opened at $12,223.5, peaked at $12,693.5, and closed at $12,673.5, reflecting a 4.02% increase [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.83, with an import loss of -1,489.48 yuan per ton, compared to -1,648.0 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of December 30, LME registered copper warrants totaled 110,300 tons, with canceled warrants decreasing by 4,900 tons to 39,175 tons. Total copper inventory decreased by 5,100 tons to 149,475 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a copper futures warrant of 71,738 tons, an increase of 5,860 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 24, 2025, Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. The production of electrolytic copper in China in November increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and SMM expects a further increase in December. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the market trading activity was suppressed. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. Spot: On December 24, 2025, the spot premium in East China was - 290 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 150 yuan/ton. On December 22, 2025, the LME official price was $12,039/ton, and the spot premium was + $31/ton [4]. 3. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 52,200 tons, an increase of 2,679 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 471,600 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices continue to rise, with the current price at $11,943.0 per ton, reflecting a 0.52% increase from the previous trading session [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On December 22, LME copper opened at $11,879.5 per ton and reached a high of $11,947 per ton, with a low of $11,875 per ton [1] - On December 19, LME copper had an opening price of $11,738.5, a high of $11,928.0, a low of $11,693.0, and a closing price of $11,870.5, marking a 1.22% increase [1] Group 2: Copper Market Updates - As of December 19, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.86, with an import loss of -1,260.58 yuan per ton, compared to -1,053.43 yuan per ton the previous trading day [1] - According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week ending December 9, speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX copper by 6,879 contracts to 71,083 contracts [1] - On December 19, LME reported registered copper warrants at 103,950 tons, with canceled warrants decreasing by 5,100 tons to 56,450 tons, and total copper inventory at 160,400 tons, down by 3,875 tons [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [4][45]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2601 of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend, ranging from around 90,700 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 94,570 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the LME copper futures price showed an oscillating and slightly strengthening trend, with the contract price running around 11,434 - 11,952 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In November 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.7% year - on - year. From January to November, the average national consumer price was flat compared with the same period of the previous year. In November, the national consumer price decreased by 0.1% month - on - month [3][14][44]. 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 93,830 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 93,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,020 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 92,820 yuan/ton, 92,860 yuan/ton, 92,970 yuan/ton, and 92,910 yuan/ton respectively. The current average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [17]. - As of December 12, 2025, the electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The current spot premium is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [17]. 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.03 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.38 US cents/pound. As of December 12, 2025, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumao was 93,830 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 83,600 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 1,870 yuan/ton. The current refined - scrap price difference is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [24]. 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 12, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389 tons, an increase of 484 tons compared with the previous week [31]. - As of December 10, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 164,975 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 40.4% [31]. - As of December 11, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 447,298 tons, an increase of 2,132 tons compared with the previous trading day [31]. - As of December 11, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,500 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 14,900 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 35,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 600 tons compared with the previous week [31]. 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The copper processing fee continues the downward trend and is still at an extremely low level. The refined - scrap copper price difference continues to expand, and the scrap copper price rises relatively slowly. The Shanghai copper inventory has a slight increase, and the inventory level is at a relatively high position in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [3][44]. 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [4][45].