Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tin price increase on Monday was due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamental situation of tin itself remained unchanged. In the short term, considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese tin ore and the lack of signs of improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [3] Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,540 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract (75% hedging ratio, around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract (50% hedging ratio, around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, Burmese复产 falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [7] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, the start of Burmese tin ore flowing into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][7] Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 268,540 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 830 US dollars or 2.45% [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 268,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.01%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.11% [11] Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 16,361.68 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 569.93 yuan or - 3.37%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change [16] Inventory Data Daily Inventory - The total Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,807 tons, up 16 tons or 0.24%. The LME tin total inventory is 1,715 tons, down 170 tons or - 9.02% [20]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 21, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Tin prices rose passively, and there is still some pressure above [3]. Key Points by Content 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.08%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 25.1% [2]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, semiconductor sector in expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuation, inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6]. 3. Nanhua's View on Tin Prices - Tin prices are still in an overall oscillating trend recently. The macro - level US tariff policy change has limited impact on tin. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Myanmar ore and no signs of further improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7]. 4. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,710 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.02% [2][8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: latest price 267,470 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,840 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.07% [8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,900 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.1% [9]. - LME Tin 3M: latest price 33,355 US dollars/ton, daily increase of 285 US dollars, daily increase rate of 0.86% [9]. - Shanghai - London ratio: latest ratio 7.96, daily increase of 0.04, daily increase rate of 0.51% [9]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: latest price 267,200 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 700 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.26% [16]. - 1 tin premium: latest price 500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 100 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 16.67% [16]. - 40% tin concentrate: latest price 253,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.47% [17]. - 60% tin concentrate: latest price 257,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.46% [17]. - Solder bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 172,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.58% [17]. - Solder bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 179,750 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. - Lead - free solder: latest price 271,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,500 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. 5. Tin Import and Processing Data - **Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: latest price - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, daily decrease of 684.78 yuan, daily increase rate of 4.41% [19]. - 40% tin ore processing fee: latest price 12,200 yuan/ton, no change [19]. - 60% tin ore processing fee: latest price 10,550 yuan/ton, no change [19]. 6. Tin Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: - Total tin warehouse receipts: latest quantity 6,817 tons, daily increase of 104 tons, daily increase rate of 1.55% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Guangdong: latest quantity 4,524 tons, daily increase of 122 tons, daily increase rate of 2.77% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Shanghai: latest quantity 1,412 tons, daily decrease of 8 tons, daily decrease rate of - 0.56% [23]. - **LME Tin Inventory**: latest quantity 1,935 tons, daily decrease of 100 tons, daily decrease rate of - 4.91% [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable, with both positive and negative factors present. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the slower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the potential recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 261,920 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.31%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 25.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.2.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 261,920 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 262,130 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 262,120 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The LME Tin 3M price is 32,990 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars or 0.81%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.99, up 0.03 or 0.38% [5] 3.2.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan or 1.17%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 25%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,600 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan or 0.55%. The price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,600 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan or 0.54%. The price of 60A solder bars in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 171,250 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan or 0.58%. The price of 63A solder bars in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 178,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan or 0.56%. The price of lead - free solder is 269,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan or 0.55% [8][11] 3.3 Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 15,147.4 yuan/ton, up 1,291.16 yuan or - 7.85%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [13] 3.4 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,777 tons, down 70 tons or 1.02%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,428 tons, down 32 tons or 0.72%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,458 tons, down 38 tons or 2.54%. The total LME tin inventory is 2,035 tons, up 55 tons or 2.78% [17]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 17, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Tin Price and Volatility - Latest closing price: 263,960 yuan/ton - Monthly price range forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 14.23% - Current volatility historical percentile: 25.7% [2] 2. Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Spot exposure: Long - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton); Sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Spot exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton); Sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] 3. Fundamental News Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies - Semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle - Lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [3] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals - Inflow of Burmese tin ore into China - Slowdown in the expansion of the semiconductor sector and a shift from the expansion to the contraction cycle [4][5] 4. Tin Futures Market Data (Daily) | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 263,960 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,130 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 263,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 32,990 | - 270 | - 0.81% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.96 | 0.02 | 0.25% | [5] 5. Tin Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot | yuan/ton | 261,900 | - 3,100 | - 1.17% | | 1 tin premium | yuan/ton | 500 | 100 | 25% | | 40% tin concentrate | yuan/ton | 251,600 | - 1,400 | - 0.55% | | 60% tin concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,600 | - 1,400 | - 0.54% | | Solder bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 171,250 | - 1,000 | - 0.58% | | Solder bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 178,750 | - 1,000 | - 0.56% | | Lead - free solder | yuan/ton | 269,750 | - 1,500 | - 0.55% | [8][11] 6. Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees (Daily) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 16,438.56 | 1,162.68 | - 6.61% | | 40% tin ore processing fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% tin ore processing fee | yuan/ton | 10,550 | 0 | 0% | [13] 7. Tin Warehouse Inventory Data SHFE (Daily) | Location | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total tin warehouse receipts | tons | 6,777 | - 70 | - 1.02% | | Tin warehouse receipts in Guangdong | tons | 4,428 | - 32 | - 0.72% | | Tin warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 1,458 | - 38 | - 2.54% | | Total LME tin inventory | tons | 2,035 | 55 | 2.78% | [17]

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年7月10日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 262890 | 245000-263000 | 11.52% | 16.4% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） 重要新闻： 基本面保持稳定。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 3. 缅甸复产不及预期。 利空因素： 1. 关税政策反复。 2. 缅甸复产。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [3][4]. Key Points by Section 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.9% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate. - For raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Important News - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, resumption of production in Myanmar, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [4][5]. 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are all 263,520 yuan/ton, 263,520 yuan/ton, and 263,360 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, down 35 US dollars (-0.1%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, down 0.02 (-0.25%) [5]. - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 266,800 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan (-0.15%). The 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-33.33%). The prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates are 254,800 yuan/ton and 258,800 yuan/ton respectively, both down 400 yuan (-0.16% and -0.15% respectively). The prices of various types of solder bars and lead - free solder also show declines [8][11]. 4. Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 17,666.1 yuan/ton, down 2,311.69 yuan (15.06%). The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged at 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,550 yuan/ton respectively [13]. 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,868 tons, up 61 tons (0.9%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,343 tons, up 105 tons (2.48%), and in Shanghai is 1,600 tons, down 44 tons (-2.68%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,085 tons, down 25 tons (-1.18%) [18].

Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report dated July 3, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tin market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector's expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the potential slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion [3][4][5][6] Detailed Summaries Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.24%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.9% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, sell 100% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data (Daily) - Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three all closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, 268,520 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M was at 33,625 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars (- 0.37%). The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92, down 0.09 (- 1.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots were at 268,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.44%); 1 tin premium was at 400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (- 42.86%); 40% tin concentrate was at 256,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.56%); 60% tin concentrate was at 260,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.52%); 60A solder bar was at 174,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.05%); 63A solder bar was at 181,750 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan (2.25%); lead - free solder was at 274,750 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan (2.42%) [10][13] Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss was - 16,263.89 yuan/ton, up 948.87 yuan (- 5.51%); 40% tin ore processing fee was 12,200 yuan/ton, with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee was 10,550 yuan/ton, with no change [15] Inventory Data (Daily) - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts totaled 6,888 tons, up 122 tons (1.8%); Guangdong warehouse receipts were 4,270 tons, up 56 tons (1.33%); Shanghai warehouse receipts were 1,693 tons, up 66 tons (4.06%); LME tin inventory totaled 2,175 tons, down 45 tons (- 2.03%) [20]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily for June 27, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Tin Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,270 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 19.07%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 47.0% [2] Group 3: Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Group 4: Market Factors Positive Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] Negative Factors - Tariff policy reversals, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6] Group 5: Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures is 267,270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - one is 267,260 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - three is 266,880 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME tin 3M is 33,140 US dollars/ton (up 680 US dollars, 2.09%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.12 (up 0.08, 1%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 265,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.53%), 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan, - 28.57%), 40% tin concentrate is 253,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60% tin concentrate is 257,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60A solder bar is 172,750 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.58%), 63A solder bar is 180,250 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.56%), and lead - free solder is 271,750 yuan/ton (up 1,500 yuan, 0.56%) [10][13] Group 6: Tin Import and Processing Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss is - 11,873.99 yuan/ton (up 843.25 yuan, - 6.63%), 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] Group 7: Tin Inventory Inventory Data (Daily) - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,591 tons (up 119 tons, 1.84%), with 4,242 tons in Guangdong (up 125 tons, 3.04%) and 1,424 tons in Shanghai (down 6 tons, - 0.42%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,115 tons (down 40 tons, - 1.86%) [17]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both利多 factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations, and利空 factors including the recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5][6] Key Points by Category 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 21.40%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 56.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell the call option SN2508C275000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] - For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the put option SN2508P245000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] 2. News and Factors - The fundamentals of tin remain stable [3] -利多 factors: easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] -利空 factors: recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [5][6] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 263,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai tin continuous - one is 263,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai tin continuous - three is 262,950 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 32,460 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars (- 0.34%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.04, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.83%). The 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton with no change. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 250,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.87%), and the price of 60% tin concentrate is 254,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.86%). The price of solder bar (60A) is 170,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan (- 0.58%), the price of solder bar (63A) is 177,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan (- 0.84%), and the price of lead - free solder is 268,250 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan (- 0.74%) [10][13] 4. Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 12,717.24 yuan/ton, up 25.63% compared to the previous day. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15] 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,472 tons, up 10 tons (0.15%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,117 tons, up 8 tons (0.19%), and in Shanghai is 1,430 tons, up 2 tons (0.14%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,155 tons, down 25 tons (- 1.15%) [20]

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年6月25日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 263800 | 245000-263000 | 21.41% | 57.0% | 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 100% | 290000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2508C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格 ...