锡产业风险管理日报 2025/09/12 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 271260 | 245000-263000 | 12.82% | 21.4% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2511C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days as expected. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by some enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and the decrease in tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with stable macro conditions, despite demand pressure, tin prices may rise slightly further due to tight supply, with the upper target tentatively set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 272,020 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 13.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.5% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, recommend selling 75% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 275,000 yuan and selling 25% of call options (SN2511C275000) when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, recommend buying 50% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 230,000 yuan and selling 25% of put options (SN2511P260000) when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - **Domestic**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin main contract, Shanghai tin continuous - one, and Shanghai tin continuous - three are all stable, while the price of LME tin 3M is 34,425 US dollars per ton, down 195 US dollars or 0.56% [6] - **Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89, up 0.04 or 0.51% [6] - **Spot Data**: - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and some solder products have increased slightly on a weekly basis, while some other products are stable [10] - **Imports and Processing Fees**: Tin import profit and loss is - 18,752.84 yuan per ton, down 7.34% daily, and tin ore processing fees are stable [10] 4. Tin Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,495 tons, up 1.19% daily, with different changes in Guangdong and Shanghai [13] - **LME Inventory**: The total LME tin inventory is 2,195 tons, up 0.92% [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Wednesday may be related to the relatively tight supply. Trump's move to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could bring him closer to "controlling the Fed" if successful. The continuous decline of tin ingot social inventory for two weeks may provide upward momentum for tin prices. The demand side shows that tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is not higher than 270,000 yuan per ton. In the short - term, the tin supply has not increased, and any smelter maintenance or extended maintenance time is beneficial to tin prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 271,790 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **L利多因素**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected [4][5] - **利空因素**: Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Tin Futures Data (Daily)**: The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 272,070 yuan/ton with no daily change; the LME Tin 3M is 34,510 US dollars/ton, up 380 US dollars with a daily increase of 1.11%; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.86, down 0.11 with a daily decline of 1.38% [6] - **Tin Spot Data (Weekly)**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.68%; 1 tin premium is 200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a weekly decline of 50%; 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.76%; 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.73%; the price of 60A solder bar is 176,250 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.44%; the price of 63A solder bar is 184,250 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.66%; the price of lead - free solder is 278,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.83% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Tin Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: The tin import profit and loss is - 15,229.07 yuan/ton, up 1,537.58 yuan with a daily decline of 9.17%; the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no daily change; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no daily change [14] - **Tin Inventory Data (Daily)**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,163 tons, up 11 tons with a daily increase of 0.15%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 5,055 tons, down 33 tons with a daily decline of 0.65%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,251 tons, up 44 tons with a daily increase of 3.65%; the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons, down 5 tons with a daily decline of 0.28% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Tuesday afternoon may be related to smelter production cut expectations, but both macro and fundamental factors have limited impact. Macroscopically, the US retail sales data in July met expectations. Fundamentally, the repeated delay of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has been providing obvious support for tin prices and may have a continuous impact. In the short term, tin prices may remain volatile, with a stable macro environment and room for speculation on supply - side topics [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.36%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 268,090 yuan/ton, 268,320 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The latest price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 100 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.3%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.13% [6] - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have weekly declines, with the Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price at 266,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 4,400 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.63% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import Data**: The latest tin import profit and loss is - 18,244.92 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 855.39 yuan and a daily decline rate of 4.92%. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [16] - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,513 tons, with a daily decline of 74 tons and a daily decline rate of 0.98%. The total LME tin inventory remains unchanged at 1,655 tons [18]

Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report dated August 13, 2025, prepared by Nanhua's non-ferrous metals research team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Tin prices were slightly stronger on Tuesday, with limited macro influence. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the impact of the production cut at the Bisie tin mine exceeded expectations, pushing up short - term tin prices. There were no significant changes in demand [3] Key Data Summary Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 270,200 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin Main, Shanghai Tin Continuous 1, and Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 are all around 270,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M is at 33,770 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars (0.16%) daily. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.95, down 0.03 (-0.38%) [6] - **Spot**: The Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot is at 270,600 yuan/ton, up 3,600 yuan (1.35%) weekly. Other spot products such as 1 tin premium, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and various types of solder bars also showed price increases in the weekly data [12] Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss is - 15,720.3 yuan/ton, down 856.65 yuan (-5.17%) daily. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [16] Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The total tin warehouse receipts are 7,397 tons, up 71 tons (0.97%) daily. The warehouse receipts in Guangdong and Shanghai are 4,911 tons (up 64 tons, 1.32%) and 1,615 tons (up 7 tons, 0.44%) respectively [20] - **LME**: The total LME tin inventory is 1,750 tons, up 40 tons (2.34%) [20] Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin Main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, the strategy is to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin Main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and its transition from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Tin prices have risen passively, and there is still some pressure above [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.51%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.4% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4] 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 South China's View - The rise of tin prices on Monday was mainly due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals of tin itself have not changed. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Burmese ore and no sign of further improvement in tin downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7] 3.4 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 267,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one is 267,470 yuan/ton, also with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - three is 267,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME Tin 3M is 33,355 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars or 0.86%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, up 0.04 or 0.51% [8][9] 3.4.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan or 0.26%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or - 16.67%. The 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.47%. The 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.46%. The 60A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 172,250 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.58%. The 63A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 179,750 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.55%. The lead - free solder is 271,250 yuan/ton, down 1500 yuan or - 0.55% [16][17] 3.5 Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, down 684.78 yuan or 4.41%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [19] 3.6 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6817 tons, up 104 tons or 1.55%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4524 tons, up 122 tons or 2.77%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1412 tons, down 8 tons or - 0.56%. The total LME tin inventory is 1935 tons, down 100 tons or - 4.91% [23]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 21, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Tin prices rose passively, and there is still some pressure above [3]. Key Points by Content 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.08%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 25.1% [2]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, semiconductor sector in expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuation, inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6]. 3. Nanhua's View on Tin Prices - Tin prices are still in an overall oscillating trend recently. The macro - level US tariff policy change has limited impact on tin. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Myanmar ore and no signs of further improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7]. 4. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,710 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.02% [2][8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: latest price 267,470 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,840 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.07% [8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,900 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.1% [9]. - LME Tin 3M: latest price 33,355 US dollars/ton, daily increase of 285 US dollars, daily increase rate of 0.86% [9]. - Shanghai - London ratio: latest ratio 7.96, daily increase of 0.04, daily increase rate of 0.51% [9]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: latest price 267,200 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 700 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.26% [16]. - 1 tin premium: latest price 500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 100 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 16.67% [16]. - 40% tin concentrate: latest price 253,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.47% [17]. - 60% tin concentrate: latest price 257,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.46% [17]. - Solder bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 172,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.58% [17]. - Solder bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 179,750 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. - Lead - free solder: latest price 271,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,500 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. 5. Tin Import and Processing Data - **Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: latest price - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, daily decrease of 684.78 yuan, daily increase rate of 4.41% [19]. - 40% tin ore processing fee: latest price 12,200 yuan/ton, no change [19]. - 60% tin ore processing fee: latest price 10,550 yuan/ton, no change [19]. 6. Tin Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: - Total tin warehouse receipts: latest quantity 6,817 tons, daily increase of 104 tons, daily increase rate of 1.55% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Guangdong: latest quantity 4,524 tons, daily increase of 122 tons, daily increase rate of 2.77% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Shanghai: latest quantity 1,412 tons, daily decrease of 8 tons, daily decrease rate of - 0.56% [23]. - **LME Tin Inventory**: latest quantity 1,935 tons, daily decrease of 100 tons, daily decrease rate of - 4.91% [23].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of China-US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the lower-than-expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion to a contraction cycle [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 269,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.08%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data - The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 269,840 yuan/ton, 269,840 yuan/ton, and 269,520 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 33,750 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 185 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.55%. The Shanghai-London ratio is 7.92, with a daily decrease of 0.09 and a daily decrease rate of -1.12% [6] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, and various types of solder bars and lead-free solder have different weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.06% [9] Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,263.89 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 948.87 yuan and a daily decrease rate of -5.51%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [14] Inventory Data - The latest warehouse receipt quantities of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (total, Guangdong, and Shanghai) and the LME tin inventory have different daily changes. For example, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,750 tons, with a daily increase of 199 tons and a daily increase rate of 3.04% [16]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both利多 factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations, and利空 factors including the recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5][6] Key Points by Category 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 21.40%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 56.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell the call option SN2508C275000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] - For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the put option SN2508P245000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] 2. News and Factors - The fundamentals of tin remain stable [3] -利多 factors: easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] -利空 factors: recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [5][6] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 263,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai tin continuous - one is 263,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai tin continuous - three is 262,950 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 32,460 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars (- 0.34%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.04, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.83%). The 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton with no change. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 250,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.87%), and the price of 60% tin concentrate is 254,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.86%). The price of solder bar (60A) is 170,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan (- 0.58%), the price of solder bar (63A) is 177,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan (- 0.84%), and the price of lead - free solder is 268,250 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan (- 0.74%) [10][13] 4. Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 12,717.24 yuan/ton, up 25.63% compared to the previous day. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15] 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,472 tons, up 10 tons (0.15%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,117 tons, up 8 tons (0.19%), and in Shanghai is 1,430 tons, up 2 tons (0.14%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,155 tons, down 25 tons (- 1.15%) [20]