1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is volatile, and the SC09 contract is relatively weak. The risk of Russian oil sanctions is weakening, and the oil price is facing a breakthrough in the volatile pattern. It is recommended to continue holding the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options on crude oil [2]. - The precious metals market is in a volatile adjustment due to the suppression of risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and ferrous metals such as iron ore, coke, etc., have different market trends and investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and policy factors [4][15][16]. - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., face different market pressures and opportunities, and investment decisions should be made according to specific fundamentals [22][23]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybeans, corn, etc., are affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policy, showing different price trends and investment outlooks [37][41]. - In the livestock and poultry sector, the prices of pigs and eggs are affected by supply - demand and policy factors, with corresponding investment strategies [42][43]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows a certain market trend and style preference, while the bond market has a differentiated structure [49][50]. 3. Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the international oil price fluctuated. The SC09 contract fell 0.71% due to position - shifting. After the US - Russia presidential meeting, the risk of Russian oil sanctions weakened, and the oil price further declined on Monday. Attention should be paid to the results of the Zelensky - Trump meeting. It is recommended to hold the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options on crude oil [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, with weak shipping and power generation demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory is high, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the weakening of geopolitical support and the bearish fundamentals [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas export market is loose, but the increase in East Asian chemical procurement provides support. The import volume has increased at the beginning of August. The refinery gas price may still decline. The chemical profit and the price - to - naphtha ratio are good, and the market is in a low - level oscillation [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The US retail sales month - on - month rate was 0.5% on Friday, in line with expectations, and the precious metals had limited fluctuations. The positive signals from the US - Russia meeting over the weekend suppressed the risk - aversion sentiment, and the precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated narrowly last Friday. The market expects a high probability of a rate cut in September. The 2508 contract entered delivery with a spot premium. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell slightly on Friday. The downstream start - up rate is stable, and the de - stocking is slowing down. The inventory may be at a low level this year. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The low inventory supports the LME zinc price. The short - position of funds is continuously reduced. The import window is closed, and the outer market drives the inner market. The short - term direction is not clear, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The SMM aluminum social inventory has increased. The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory may be hidden. The downstream procurement has improved, and it is recommended to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The upstream price support has weakened, and the inventory is at a high level. The nickel price is in a rebound and oscillatory trend [10]. - **Tin**: The domestic and foreign tin prices rebounded last Friday. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory also decreased. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is strong year - on - year, and the domestic port inventory has stabilized and increased. The steel apparent demand has declined, but the iron water production is still high, and the short - term demand is supported. The future iron water production may decrease, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated during the day. The coking plants in East China may have production restrictions. The coking profit has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is affected by policy expectations and has high volatility [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillated during the day. The coking coal production has decreased, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is affected by policy expectations and has high volatility [18]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene supply has increased, and the market sentiment is bearish. The polyethylene production enterprises have a strong intention to support the price, and the polypropylene market is weak due to insufficient demand and increasing supply pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price is weak, with stable supply and general demand, and the inventory has been accumulating. The caustic soda price is strong, with increased downstream replenishment and reduced supply. The short - term price is oscillatory and strong, but the long - term supply pressure is large [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices rebounded slightly last week and then declined. The terminal demand is expected to recover, and attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the demand recovery rhythm [31]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The USDA August report was bullish for US soybeans, which are currently in a callback. The new - season US soybean production may be affected by weather. The domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be about 10 million tons from August to October. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish [37]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures continued to decline last Friday. The USDA August report was bearish for US corn, and the domestic corn supply is sufficient without policy guidance, so it may continue to be weak at the bottom [41]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Pigs**: The weekend pig spot price declined. The pig supply is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price may continue to fall. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging at high prices [42]. - **Eggs**: The weekend egg spot price rose, and the futures market is still under the pressure of high production capacity. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and cold - storage egg delivery [43]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Most broad - based indexes rose in the previous trading day, and the trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days. The policy focus has shifted from quantity to structure, and the market is pricing in the policy support expectation. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Most treasury bond futures closed down, and the 30 - year main contract fell 0.29%. The short - term Shibor rates rose. The bond market may face more negative factors in the second half of August, and the yield curve may become steeper [50].

Event Announcement - A press conference regarding the preparation for the military parade will be held by the State Council Information Office [1] - The press conference is scheduled for August 20, 2025 (Wednesday) at 10:00 AM [1] Participants - Wu Zekui, Deputy Director of the Parade Leading Group Office and Deputy Director of the Operations Bureau of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission (Major General) [1] - Xu Guizhong, Executive Deputy Director of the Parade Command Office of the Central Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army and Deputy Director of the Political Work Department (Major General) [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Last week, steel and ore prices remained in a high - level oscillatory pattern, and the market was unable to break this situation. The marginal effect of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, and market focus returned to fundamentals. The weekly apparent demand for rebar decreased and was lower than the same period last year, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils rebounded, higher than both the same period last year and the average of the past five years. The increase in iron ore port inventory pressured the market, but overall molten iron production increased, arrivals decreased, and raw material prices were firm, providing strong support at the lower end. In the future, policies remain the key to the market trend. Before the policies are clear, no trending market is expected, and it is advisable to maintain a high - level oscillatory mindset [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price rose from 770 yuan/wet ton to 772 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder price increased from 809 yuan/wet ton to 810 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit rose from - 11.36 yuan/wet ton to - 10.49 yuan/wet ton, and Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 6.31 yuan/wet ton to 7.33 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 122.8 tons to 1365.6 tons, while Brazilian shipments to China increased by 104.7 tons to 847.4 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 114.3 tons to 14381.57 tons, arrivals decreased by 50.8 tons to 2571.6 tons, and port clearance volume increased by 10.35 tons to 346.8 tons. Iron ore port trading volume increased by 35.9 tons to 105.6 tons, daily average molten iron production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 65.8% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: Shanghai rebar price dropped from 3340 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, while Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3450 yuan/ton to 3460 yuan/ton. Blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, and electric furnace operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39%. Rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 151 yuan/ton, and rebar electric furnace profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton. Rebar weekly output decreased by 0.73 tons to 220.45 tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output increased by 0.7 tons to 315.59 tons. Rebar weekly social inventory increased by 26.45 tons to 414.93 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory decreased by 1.26 tons to 277.49 tons. Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased by 4.06 tons to 172.26 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 79.98 tons. Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased by 20.85 tons to 189.94 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption increased by 8.64 tons to 314.85 tons, and building material trading volume increased by 11408 tons to 105050 tons [35][37]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: Blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and electric furnace operating rate increased [35]. - **Output**: Rebar weekly output decreased slightly, while hot - rolled coil weekly output increased slightly [35]. - **Profit**: Steel product profits generally decreased, including rebar blast furnace profit, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit, and rebar electric furnace profit [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar social and enterprise inventories increased, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly and enterprise inventory increased [37]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased [37].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high since December 2021, driven by strong performances in military, AI, and brokerage sectors [1][2][3]. Military Industry - The military sector showed strong performance, with companies like Aerospace Science and Technology achieving five consecutive daily limit-ups in the past week. The ground equipment segment has seen an 81% increase since June, driven by military trade and upcoming military parades [5]. - Analysts suggest that various sub-sectors, including aerospace and military electronics, will benefit from the upcoming military parade, which is expected to showcase new-generation traditional weapons and new combat forces [5]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector saw significant activity, with stocks like Changcheng Securities and Guosheng Financial hitting daily limits. The number of new A-share accounts opened in July increased by 70.5% year-on-year, indicating heightened market activity [7]. - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, a ten-year high, reflecting improved investor sentiment and willingness to take on risk [7]. AI Industry Chain - AI-related stocks surged, with companies like Guangku Technology and Xin Yisheng reaching historical highs. The growth is attributed to advancements in overseas computing power infrastructure and the adoption of liquid cooling solutions by major tech firms [9]. - The market for optical modules is expected to remain robust, supported by ongoing investments in computing power infrastructure and breakthroughs in domestic computing chips [9].