gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月18日 (原油) 上周国际油价震荡，SC09合约受移仓影响跌0.71%相对偏弱。上周五美俄总统会谈虽未达成协议, 但为俄乌和平协议的最终达成塑造了可能，俄油制裁风险趋弱,周一开盘国际油价进一步走弱。关 注周一泽连斯基与特朗普会谈结果，俄乌局势仍存变数，油价震荡格局面临突破，继续持有原油虚 值期权双买策略。 【贵金属】 周五美国公布零售销售月率0.5%符合预期，贵金属波动有限。周末美俄会谈释放积极信号，特朗普 称取得了重大进展。近期避险情绪受到压制，贵金属震荡调整或将延续。 (铜) 上周五铜价窄幅震荡，仍缺乏显著交投主线。美国零售销售环增速度符合预期，但消费者信心指数 再转疲态，市场整体预期9月降息为大概率事件。2508合约以现货升水进入交割，关注社库变动。 倾向铜价上方阻力明显，高位空头持有。 【铝】 周五沪铝小幅回落。近期下游龙头企业开工企稳，去库有放缓远象，没季累库峰值可能临近，年内 库存大概率处于偏低水平。沪铝短期震荡为主，上方21000元具备阻力。 【铸造铝合金】 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动, 保太现货报价维持在19900 ...

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Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Last week, steel and ore prices remained in a high - level oscillatory pattern, and the market was unable to break this situation. The marginal effect of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, and market focus returned to fundamentals. The weekly apparent demand for rebar decreased and was lower than the same period last year, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils rebounded, higher than both the same period last year and the average of the past five years. The increase in iron ore port inventory pressured the market, but overall molten iron production increased, arrivals decreased, and raw material prices were firm, providing strong support at the lower end. In the future, policies remain the key to the market trend. Before the policies are clear, no trending market is expected, and it is advisable to maintain a high - level oscillatory mindset [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price rose from 770 yuan/wet ton to 772 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder price increased from 809 yuan/wet ton to 810 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit rose from - 11.36 yuan/wet ton to - 10.49 yuan/wet ton, and Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 6.31 yuan/wet ton to 7.33 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 122.8 tons to 1365.6 tons, while Brazilian shipments to China increased by 104.7 tons to 847.4 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 114.3 tons to 14381.57 tons, arrivals decreased by 50.8 tons to 2571.6 tons, and port clearance volume increased by 10.35 tons to 346.8 tons. Iron ore port trading volume increased by 35.9 tons to 105.6 tons, daily average molten iron production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 65.8% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: Shanghai rebar price dropped from 3340 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, while Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3450 yuan/ton to 3460 yuan/ton. Blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, and electric furnace operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39%. Rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 151 yuan/ton, and rebar electric furnace profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton. Rebar weekly output decreased by 0.73 tons to 220.45 tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output increased by 0.7 tons to 315.59 tons. Rebar weekly social inventory increased by 26.45 tons to 414.93 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory decreased by 1.26 tons to 277.49 tons. Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased by 4.06 tons to 172.26 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 79.98 tons. Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased by 20.85 tons to 189.94 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption increased by 8.64 tons to 314.85 tons, and building material trading volume increased by 11408 tons to 105050 tons [35][37]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: Blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and electric furnace operating rate increased [35]. - **Output**: Rebar weekly output decreased slightly, while hot - rolled coil weekly output increased slightly [35]. - **Profit**: Steel product profits generally decreased, including rebar blast furnace profit, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit, and rebar electric furnace profit [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar social and enterprise inventories increased, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly and enterprise inventory increased [37]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased [37].

13日早盘，A股三大股指集体拉升，沪指创阶段新高，创业板指大涨近3%；港股亦走强，两大股指涨约2%。 具体来看，沪指盘中强势上扬，最高攀升至3688.09点，创2021年12月以来新高；深证成指涨超1%，创业板指大涨近3%。 军工板块强势，航天科技近7日斩获5个涨停板，大元泵业连续3日涨停，长城军工再创新高；AI产业链股集体拉升，光库科技20%创历史新高，新易盛、中际旭创 均创出新高，工业富联盘中涨超5%续创新高；光刻机概念活跃，中船特气、凯美特气等涨停；PEEK材料概念热度不减，华密新材盘中干涨超10%，亦创出新高。 券商板块快速走高，截至发稿，长城证券、国盛金控涨停。值得注意的是，昨日午后强势涨停的寒武纪回落走低；昨日晚间公布中报的贵州茅台跌逾1%。 港股方面，截至发稿，腾讯音乐-SW大涨超17%，创历史新高；鸿腾精密、五矿资源涨超10%，万洲国际涨超5%。蔚来-SW跌近5%，小鹏汽车-W跌超3%。 军工板块拉升 军工板块再度走强，截至发稿，臻镭科技涨约13%，中电鑫龙、烽火电子连续两日涨停，航天科技近7日斩获5个涨停板，大元泵业连续3日涨停，长城军工涨停再 创新高。 机构表示，步入2025年，军工行业基 ...