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25岁失业潮来袭?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-24 07:15
35岁中年危机是一直以来的热门话题,只不过自ChatGPT发布后情况似乎变得诡异起来,也许35岁危机变成25岁危机了。 并且,这里的"25岁职业危机"不是我的观点,而是来自美国的一篇经济学研究报告: 论文地址:https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5425555 标题:Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change: Evidence from U.S. Résumé and Job Posting Data.生成式AI作为资历偏向型技术变革: 来自美国简历和招聘数据的证据 LLM是否对大龄(资历深)的员工更加友好:来自美国简历与招聘数据的证据。 从数据层面来看,该报告是非常厚重的: 1. 覆盖时间:2015~2025年; 2. 样本量:28.5万家企业 + 6200万员工 + 2.45亿条招聘信息; 因为报告是以数据结论做推导,所以作者本身并不带一丝情绪,而数据推导出来的结论是: 接下来,我们来聊聊它的几个核心点: 一、初级岗位减少 首先,论文尤为关键的数据发生于2023年Q1:采 ...
转转关停自由市场,闲鱼稳坐“一哥”宝座?
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-09-23 10:11
齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点魏银科 9月22日,转转集团一纸公告宣布逐步关停运营十年的"自由市场"业务——这家2015年诞生、曾获腾讯与小米等知名投资机构近10亿美元投资、最新估值 超210亿元的二手电商,彻底退出与闲鱼在此领域的正面竞争。 转转CEO黄炜形容,这是一次"战略性的撤退",而事实上,自2019年起,转转就已悄然启动向C2B2C(平台作为中间人对商品进行质检和担保)模式的转 型,如今这项起家业务在集团总份额中占比已不足3%,此次关停更像是对多年转型的最终落定。 C2C业务的GMV占比已不足3% 所谓"自由市场",即C2C(个人对个人)交易模式,是转转发家的根基。凭借这种用户可直接发布闲置物品、自主定价沟通、平台仅提供基础撮合服务的模 式,转转早年快速积累了第一批用户,截至2024年底其注册用户已超4亿,总部落地青岛后累计实现营收也超250亿元。但正如CEO黄炜所言,这种模式也 成了"网络诈骗与灰色交易的温床",平台很难妥善解决交易双方的纠纷。数据显示,该业务当前在平台GMV(商品交易总额)中占比已不足3%,却消耗了 大量纠纷处理资源,早已成为转转转型升级的绊脚石。 转转这几年在广告上投了不少钱,特别是在B站 ...
最新高层会议,传递什么信号?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 01:24
点击【樱桃大房子】关注并 今天(9月22日)下午,国新办召开新闻发布会,为市场注入信心。 金融监管总局局长总结了我国持续推动房地产市场止跌回稳的一系列有力举措: 这一串数字,充分说明国家一直在为房地产市场托底护航,全力稳预期、防风险、促转型。 中国经济转型升级中,核心城市房产仍是共享发展红利的优质媒介。 可以说,核心城市优质房产就是发展红利的股权凭证。 在一众城市中,成都近年来经济跃升、楼市稳健,展现出强劲的发展韧性,人送外号"成独秀"。 九三阅兵,我国秀"核心腹肌" 国家以真金白银、实招硬招,为房地产领域注入"定心丸"。 叠加近期国家高层会议多次传递稳楼市信号,政策发力刺激市场修复。国务院会议上明确提出,采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势。成都、北 京、上海、苏州等核心城市相继出台房地产利好政策。 | 时间 | 内容 | | --- | --- | | 成都(7月21日) | 分批取消住房限售政策,公积金贷款最低首付比例降至15% | | 北京(8月8日) | 五环外商品住房取消套数限制 | | 上海(8月25日) | 外环外购房不限套数 | | 苏州(8月26日) | 取消市区新建商品房两年限售 | ...
多家公司受到证监会行政处罚,亿元级罚单频现|财富周历 动态前瞻
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 00:59
A-shares Market - On September 18, A-shares experienced a rapid decline after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3831.66 points, down 1.15%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13075.66 points, down 1.06%. The ChiNext Index fell by 1.64% to 3095.85 points. Despite the decline, the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.135 trillion yuan, an increase of 758.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the third-highest trading volume of the year [2] - On September 18, 18 A-shares registered for equity distribution, with 17 companies proposing dividends and one company planning to implement dividends, capital increase, or stock distribution simultaneously [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has imposed strict penalties on several companies for financial fraud, including *ST Dongtong and Yili Clean Energy, sending a strong signal of "zero tolerance" for such behaviors [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange continues to see high activity in new stock listings, with the stock of Sanxie Electric rising by over 860% on its first trading day, closing up 785.62%, marking the highest first-day increase of the year [2] Insurance Sector - In the first half of the year, listed insurance companies showed a mixed performance in investment returns. Companies like Xinhua Insurance and China Ping An reported strong results after increasing their equity allocations, particularly in high-dividend stocks. Conversely, China Taiping's investment performance weakened significantly, with total investment income dropping by 41.6% year-on-year, and the annualized total investment return rate falling from 5.27% to 2.68% [3] Banking and Financial Products - Current bank deposit rates have generally fallen below 2%, although some private banks like Huari Bank and WeBank still offer large-denomination certificates of deposit with rates exceeding 2%. These high-yield products are in high demand and are quickly sold out [4] - As of September 12, the number of domestic securities investment private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan has reached 92, with quantitative private equity firms making up nearly 50% of this group [4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a reduction in the base interest rate to 4.5%, effective immediately, based on a formula referencing the lower limit of the current U.S. federal funds rate target range plus 50 basis points [4] Government Bonds - On September 17, the Ministry of Finance announced the completion of the competitive bidding for the second issuance of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, with a total face value of 35 billion yuan for a 20-year fixed-rate bond. The overall issuance scale of ultra-long special government bonds this year has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [4] Real Estate Market - In August, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to show a narrowing year-on-year decline, with positive signals in property sales, inventory reduction, and corporate financing. A series of supportive policies have improved market expectations and accelerated demand release [6] Tax Revenue - In the first eight months of the year, tax revenue collected by the tax authorities increased by 2% year-on-year, with significant growth in July and August due to heightened activity in the capital markets, where tax revenue from the securities industry grew by over 70% in both months [7] - From January to August, the general public budget revenue reached 148.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Tax revenue was approximately 121.085 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% [8]
行业集中度不断提升 私募“百亿俱乐部”格局生变
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-18 20:19
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth of the private equity industry in China, particularly the expansion of the "billion club" with 92 billion-level private equity firms as of September 12, 2023, compared to 80 at the end of January 2023 [2][3] - The rise of quantitative private equity firms is notable, with 45 such firms now in the billion club, accounting for nearly 50% of the total, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape of the industry [1][2] - The overall market environment, driven by policy support and marginal improvements in fundamentals, has favored larger private equity firms, particularly those employing quantitative strategies [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the growth in the number of billion-level private equity firms, fundraising within the industry shows a dichotomy, with top quantitative firms attracting significant capital while smaller firms struggle [3][4] - There is a noticeable trend where mainstream capital is increasingly favoring quantitative strategies, although interest in subjective long/short strategies is also rising among larger institutions [3][4] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on research capabilities and service quality becoming critical for both large and mid-sized private equity firms to maintain investor trust and attract capital [4] Group 3 - The articles emphasize the importance of differentiation in competition, suggesting that mid-sized firms should focus on unique strategies and enhance their research and risk management capabilities to stand out [4] - The future of the private equity industry is expected to see a diversification of strategies, with quantitative firms leveraging technological advancements and subjective firms deepening their research and risk management [4] - The industry is moving towards a phase where the ability to generate alpha returns will be paramount, as firms that can better understand the market and create sustained value will gain a competitive edge [4]
一单难求与挂牌转让,大额存单“围城”背后
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-16 13:35
Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions on large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) reveal a stark contrast between state-owned banks and private banks, driven by differences in resource endowment and operational foundations, leading to a "Matthew effect" in the industry [1][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Disparity - State-owned banks and joint-stock banks generally offer large-denomination CDs with annual interest rates in the "1" range, while some private banks attract attention with rates exceeding 2%, but these products are often in short supply and sell out quickly [3][4]. - For instance, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China offer 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year CDs at rates of 1.20%, 1.20%, and 1.55% respectively, while Ping An Bank offers rates of 1.40%, 1.40%, and 1.70% for the same terms [3]. Private Banks' High-Interest Products - Some private banks, like Suzhou Bank, offer 2-year and 3-year CDs with rates of 2.10% and 2.30%, respectively, but these high-rate products are often quickly sold out [4]. - Other private banks, such as WeBank, have adjusted their rates downwards, with current offerings showing rates of 1.55%, 1.60%, and 1.60% for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year CDs, indicating a shift in their pricing strategy [4]. Resource Endowment Analysis - The disparity in interest rates is attributed to the resource endowment differences between state-owned and private banks. State-owned banks have strong capital strength and brand recognition, allowing them to maintain lower interest rates due to stable funding sources [5]. - In contrast, private banks face challenges in attracting deposits and often resort to higher interest rates to compete in the market, which can lead to increased operational risks [5]. Active Transfer Market - The transfer market for large-denomination CDs is becoming increasingly active, with some products offering higher rates than newly issued ones, indicating a demand for liquidity and better returns among investors [6][7]. - The trend of "deposit migration" is evident, as recent data shows a significant decrease in new household deposits, while non-bank deposits have increased, reflecting a shift in investor preferences towards higher-yielding investments [7][8]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Experts suggest that investors should adopt a diversified asset allocation strategy to balance risk and return, especially in light of the current market conditions where stock market performance is improving [8].
上半年基金代销百强名单出炉:蚂蚁基金、招商银行和天天基金排前三
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-16 13:23
Core Insights - The China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association (CSRC) released the public fund sales retention scale for the first half of 2025, highlighting the dominance of top institutions in the market [1][2][3] Fund Sales Institutions - The top three fund sales institutions by equity fund retention scale are Ant Fund, China Merchants Bank, and Tiantian Fund, with retention scales of 822.9 billion, 492 billion, and 349.6 billion respectively [1][2] - A total of 9 institutions have equity fund retention scales exceeding 100 billion, with banks holding 5 of these positions, indicating a strong presence in the market [2] Market Trends - The top ten sales institutions account for 30.3 trillion in equity fund retention scale, representing 58.90% of the total scale of the top 100 institutions, showcasing a clear "Matthew Effect" in the industry [2] - Non-monetary market fund retention scales for Ant Fund and China Merchants Bank both exceed 1 trillion, reaching 1.57 trillion and 1.04 trillion respectively, with Tiantian Fund also surpassing 500 billion [2] Growth Metrics - The total retention scale of equity funds among these institutions reached 51.4 trillion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 285.6 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 5.89% [3] - The total retention scale of non-monetary market funds reached 10.2 trillion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 662.6 billion, indicating a 6.95% increase [3] Competitive Landscape - The "stronger get stronger" phenomenon is evident, as the gap between leading institutions and smaller ones continues to widen, with 43 institutions having equity fund retention scales below 10 billion [4] - The retention scale of stock index funds among leading companies has surpassed 1 trillion, while many smaller institutions remain at single-digit scales, suggesting a challenging environment for smaller players [4]
重磅!电子行业狂揽70亿融资
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 10:43
Group 1 - The electronic industry topped the market with a net buying amount of 6.976 billion, with CATL alone accounting for 1.021 billion in net financing [1] - The market is experiencing an "external leverage market," characterized by the principle of "the strong get stronger" while most retail investors remain unaware [3] - The current market lacks policy guidance, leading to news becoming a mere catalyst rather than a guiding force for stock prices [4] Group 2 - Institutions manipulate the market dynamics, as seen in the case of Huiwei Technology during the "9.24" market event, where institutional activity levels indicated a strategy of waiting for retail investors to panic [5][7] - In the case of Huadong Shares, despite a generally rising market, the stock continued to decline due to a lack of institutional participation, demonstrating that positive news does not guarantee price increases [8][10] - Retail investors should focus on quantitative data analysis rather than superficial market indicators, as understanding the true behavior of funds is crucial for making informed investment decisions [11]
券商代销权益基金中场战报:57家角力,33家正增长,20家负增长,中航、财信规模环比跌幅超8%垫底
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-16 07:13
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese fund distribution market is undergoing significant reshuffling, with a pronounced "Matthew Effect" where stronger institutions continue to gain market share while weaker ones fall behind [1][12]. Market Overview - As of mid-2025, the total equity fund holding scale of the top 100 distribution institutions reached 5.14 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.12% [1]. - The non-monetary market fund holding scale surpassed 10.21 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.86% [1]. - The stock index fund scale rose to 1.95 trillion yuan, marking a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.39%, becoming a key driver for overall growth [1]. Institutional Performance - Among 57 brokerage distribution institutions, a significant divergence in performance is observed, with some institutions rising strongly while others are lagging [1]. - Leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities consistently rank in the top three across equity funds, non-monetary market funds, and stock index funds [4][11]. Growth Rates - Guotai Junan Securities reported a remarkable quarter-on-quarter growth of 78.47% in equity funds, 77.15% in non-monetary market funds, and 86% in stock index funds [6][7]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and CITIC Jianan Securities also demonstrated strong growth, with CICC's non-monetary market funds increasing by 61.04% and CITIC Jianan's equity funds growing by 25.9% [7][11]. Declining Institutions - Eight brokerages showed a decline across all three core indicators, indicating a worrying trend for their competitiveness [7][11]. - Dongxing Securities experienced a significant drop in non-monetary market funds by 18.99%, alongside declines in equity and stock index funds [8][9]. Structural Changes - A notable structural change in the brokerage industry is observed, where the growth rate of non-monetary market funds outpaces that of equity funds for most institutions [11]. - The concentration in the stock index fund sector remains high, with 23 securities companies having over 10 billion yuan in scale, and six exceeding 50 billion yuan [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the ongoing public fund reforms will further strengthen the market dominance of large internet platforms and leading brokerages, while smaller firms that fail to adapt may face increased pressure [12].
券商代销“冰火两重天”:中信建投非货规模环比增近30%,招商近20%,中航、财信等8家全面缩水
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-16 07:09
Core Insights - The overall scale of fund distribution institutions in China has steadily increased due to improved market conditions and enhanced investor confidence, with the top 100 distribution institutions holding a total of 5.14 trillion yuan in equity funds, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.12% [1][2] - The market is experiencing a significant reshuffle, with a pronounced "Matthew Effect" where stronger institutions are gaining more market share while weaker ones are falling behind [1][12] Fund Distribution Market Overview - As of mid-2025, the total scale of non-monetary market funds surpassed 10.21 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.86% [1] - The scale of stock index funds rose to 1.95 trillion yuan, marking a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.39%, becoming a key driver for overall growth [1] Performance of Major Securities Firms - Leading firms such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities consistently rank among the top three across equity funds, non-monetary market funds, and stock index funds [4][11] - CITIC Securities reported an equity fund scale of 142.1 billion yuan, non-monetary market fund scale of 239.7 billion yuan, and stock index fund scale of 122.3 billion yuan [4] - Guotai Junan Securities showed significant growth with equity funds increasing by 78.47%, non-monetary market funds by 77.15%, and stock index funds by 86% [6][7] Growth Disparities Among Institutions - There is a notable divergence in growth rates among securities firms, with some like China International Capital Corporation and CITIC Jianan Securities showing strong growth, while others like Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities are experiencing declines across key metrics [7][9][11] - Eight firms have shown a comprehensive decline in their core indicators, indicating a competitive disadvantage [7][9] Structural Changes in the Market - A structural shift is observed where the growth rate of non-monetary market funds is surpassing that of equity funds, suggesting a strategic pivot by firms towards fixed-income products [11] - The concentration in the stock index fund sector remains high, with 23 firms having over 10 billion yuan in scale, and six firms exceeding 50 billion yuan [11] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing reforms in public funds will further strengthen the market position of large firms, while smaller firms that fail to adapt may face increased pressure [12]