Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Oscillating [6] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [6] - Scrap Steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Coking Coal: Oscillating Weakly [10] - Glass: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Soda Ash: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the macro - sentiment was weak, and the US further imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing the prices of black building materials to decline. However, the actual impact of tariffs was limited, and there were rumors of Mongolia increasing resource taxes, leading to a price rebound at night. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the manufacturing's rush for exports is less than expected. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability provides cost support. Low valuations drive price rebounds, but the upside is limited [1][2]. - In terms of iron elements, the overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. The new projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - For carbon elements, the coking coal production remains high, and the Mongolian coal port clearance is also at a high level, resulting in a loose supply. The coke production is at a high level, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The coking coal inventory pressure upstream is increasing, and it's difficult to find price support [2]. - Regarding alloys, the arrival of South32 Australian ore at the port increases the pressure on oxidized ore spot. The ban on manganese ore exports by Gabon has no obvious impact on the domestic market. With the recovery of manganese ore shipments, the port inventory is rising, and the cost drag persists. The ferrosilicon supply increases slightly, and the downstream is eager to reduce inventory. The glass demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - side news can cause market fluctuations. The soda ash supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Core Logic: The overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. New projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high, so the annual molten iron output is expected to be higher than last year. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The black sector rebounded last night, and iron ore also rose slightly [2][6]. - Outlook: The US tariff policy has limited actual negative impact on iron ore, but may cause pessimistic sentiment. Considering the uncertain policies, the tight supply - demand balance, and the fact that the price has factored in many negative factors, the room for further significant decline is limited [6]. Steel - Core Logic: The domestic policy is in a vacuum, and there are still tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand outlook is weak. The molten iron output is high, and the steel production has increased. Although the supply - demand fundamentals improved this week and the inventory decreased, the falling raw material prices and pessimistic demand expectations suppress the price [6]. - Outlook: The fundamentals improved this week, but the outlook is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The post - holiday scrap steel arrival was low, and the loss during off - peak electricity hours increased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The supply was tight after the holiday, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces was affected. The inventory increased slightly [7]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace loss is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Coke - Core Logic: The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening as the molten iron output declines and the off - season approaches [7][9]. - Outlook: The falling coking coal price weakens the cost support, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The market trading atmosphere is weak, and coal mines face shipment pressure. The supply is still loose as the production remains high and the Mongolian coal port clearance is high. The coke production is high, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The upstream inventory pressure is increasing [10]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic, the supply - demand is loose, and the high inventory suppresses the price. The price is expected to remain weak [10]. Glass - Core Logic: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, and the deep - processing demand improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. There was cold - repair and复产, and the supply pressure remains. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is sensitive to supply - side news [3][11]. - Outlook: The real - world demand faces pressure in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts in Hubei [11]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure persists as some enterprises' production has recovered. The demand for heavy alkali is for rigid needs, and the increase in float glass daily melting is uncertain. The short - term inventory decreased due to maintenance, but the long - term surplus remains [11]. - Outlook: The supply surplus remains, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [11]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon manganese price was weak. The cost pressure is high as the market is bearish on raw materials, and the South32 Australian ore is arriving at the port. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season [13]. - Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to continue to decline as the manganese ore inventory rises and the coke price is falling [13]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon price was weak. The supply increased slightly as some furnaces were restarted. The demand is weak as the steel market enters the off - season and the metal magnesium market is sluggish [14]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both weak, and the demand may weaken further. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is cautious, and the black commodity market shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - For glass and soda ash, the downstream procurement is cautious, with glass opening high and closing low, and soda ash showing a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - For silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, the supply side is frequently disturbed, with silicon - manganese rising strongly and silicon - iron moving in a volatile manner [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. The spot market had dull trading, and the downstream procurement sentiment was average. This week, the national weekly average price of float glass was 1,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.35 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 75.34%, an increase of 0.34%. The manufacturer's inventory was 67.769 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures showed a narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The spot market demand was average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.63%, a decrease of 1.64%. The output was 663,800 tons, a decrease of 2.04%. The inventory was 1.6768 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Recently, the glass output has slightly increased. Due to the insufficient recovery of real - estate and deep - processing demand, the restocking intensity and sustainability are weak. Although the glass inventory has slightly decreased, the de - stocking pressure is large, and the price lacks upward momentum. In the later high - temperature and rainy season, it is not conducive to glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for sales and inventory reduction [1]. - Soda Ash: Affected by the increase in alkali plant maintenance, the recent soda ash output has declined but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, and the room for increasing soda ash demand is limited. The de - stocking pressure is still large. Attention should be paid to the summer maintenance of alkali plants and the progress of annual new - capacity production [1]. Strategy - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Weakly volatile [2] Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron Market Analysis - Silicon - Manganese: The market oscillated upward yesterday, with an increase of 14,243 open positions and a rapid expansion of trading volume. In the spot market, the mainstream steel tenders started to quote, and the market enthusiasm was average. Factories basically stopped quoting. Affected by industry profits, the silicon - manganese output continued to decline and was at a low level in previous years. The hot - metal output declined from a high level, and the demand for silicon - manganese weakened. The silicon - manganese manufacturer's inventory and registered warrants were at a high level, suppressing the silicon - manganese price. However, considering that the manganese ore port inventory was at a low level, the continuous decline in manganese ore prices had dragged down shipments, which supported the alloy cost. Attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore in the later stage [3]. - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures moved in a volatile manner yesterday, with a decrease of 7,875 open positions. In the spot market, the silicon - iron market was weak, with mostly cautious operations and little change in transaction prices. Against the background of enterprise losses, the silicon - iron output remained at a medium - low level. The hot - metal output reached the peak and then declined, and the demand for silicon - iron began to weaken. The manufacturer's inventory continued to be depleted, and the downstream enterprise inventory remained at a low level. The silicon - iron production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black sector in the future [3]. Strategy - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]