双硅
Search documents
黑色建材日报:供应扰动影响,纯碱震荡上涨-20251111
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:43
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating strongly [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating strongly [4] 2. Core Views - Glass has large supply - demand contradictions, high inventory, and weak long - term demand due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the downturn in the real estate industry [1] - Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, with downstream rigid demand having resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with high production and inventory. Its price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with a significant increase in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases as needed [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions are large, inventory is high, and long - term demand is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures market oscillated upward yesterday. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and mainly made low - price rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions remain. Downstream rigid demand has resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to supply and cost changes [1] - Strategy: Oscillating [2] Ferromanganese - Market Analysis: The ferromanganese futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the ferromanganese market had strong wait - and - see sentiment, waiting for new steel procurement guidelines. The price in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, but production remains at a medium - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. The price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. The ferrosilicon market had little fluctuation, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon was priced at 5700 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed. Attention should be paid to cost changes in coal and electricity prices and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4]
黑色建材日报:宏观预期兑现,盘面短期承压-20251031
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:50
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The macro - expected situation has been realized, and the market is under short - term pressure. The supply - demand contradictions in glass, soda ash, and double - silicon sectors continue to affect the prices of related products [1][3] 3. Market Analysis and Strategy by Product Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market dropped significantly yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for刚需. The开工 rate of float glass enterprises this week was 80.63%, unchanged from last week, and the factory inventory was 65.79 million heavy boxes, a 1.24% decrease from last week, showing obvious inventory reduction. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still large, the inventory pressure is still at a historically high level, and the futures - cash merchants are squeezing the market share of glass factories. With the end of the consumption peak season and the potential for some production lines to resume production, the glass price is expected to remain under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market showed a weak oscillating trend yesterday. Downstream procurement is mainly for刚需 replenishment. This week, the soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a 2.29% increase from last week, and the inventory was 1.702 million tons, a 0.01% decrease from last week. The supply - demand contradiction remains, with the supply expected to increase further, the刚需 showing resilience, and the speculative demand weakening. The inventory reduction pressure will persist throughout the year [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,842 yuan/ton yesterday. The spot market was stable, and the alloy cost support was fair. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Although silicomanganese enterprises are facing increasing losses, the production remains high, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Recently, coking coal has driven the upward movement of the black sector, strengthening the bottom support of silicomanganese. It is expected that the silicomanganese price will continue to fluctuate with the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures tried to rise in the morning but faced pressure and then declined in the afternoon under the influence of the black sector. The spot market sentiment was flat, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. Currently, ferrosilicon enterprises have high production and high inventory, and the demand is expected to weaken. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, it has not effectively curbed production, and the weak fundamental situation is difficult to reverse. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon price will follow the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]
黑色建材日报:市场情绪回暖,钢价震荡偏强-20251028
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:48
Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream sentiment was cautious, with mainly rigid - demand purchases. The supply - demand contradiction was significant, inventory pressure increased, and the market share of glass factories was squeezed by futures - cash traders. With the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the possibility of some production lines resuming, the glass price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market also had narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply - demand contradiction persisted, with an expected increase in supply, resilient rigid demand, and weakened speculative demand. De - stocking pressure would last throughout the year. Focus on supply changes and downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The strategy is to expect a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - Soda Ash: The strategy is to expect a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures market rose following the overall black - series market. There was strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market at the beginning of the week, with few spot quotations. Although losses of silicomanganese enterprises increased, production remained high, and de - stocking pressure was large. The price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Attention should be paid to cost support and regional policies. The 6517 silicomanganese price in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures had a small increase after consolidation. The spot market sentiment was flat, with most cautious operations. Ferrosilicon enterprises had high production and high inventory, and demand was expected to weaken. Despite continuous losses, production was not effectively curbed, and the weak fundamental situation was difficult to reverse. The short - term price is expected to follow the sector. Monitor changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [3]. Group 4: Strategies for Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The strategy is to expect a fluctuating trend [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The strategy is to expect a fluctuating trend [4]. Group 5: Graphs and Their Information - The report includes multiple graphs showing various aspects such as the spot and futures prices, cost, profit, and basis of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, soda ash, glass, power coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [5].
黑色建材日报:库存环比下降,钢价有所反弹-20251023
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The inventory of steel decreased month - on - month, and steel prices rebounded. The cost of glass and soda ash increased, and their prices rebounded from the low level. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures rose slightly, while the spot market remained on the sidelines [1][3]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and soda ash prices are also expected to be volatile and weak. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to remain volatile [2][4]. Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures fluctuated strongly yesterday with active trading. The spot market was cautious, and enterprises offered flexible prices. The supply of glass is on a low - level upward trend, the inventory of middle - stream traders is high and still accumulating. With the end of the consumption peak season approaching and the possibility of some production lines resuming production, glass demand is expected to weaken further [1]. - Soda ash futures also fluctuated strongly yesterday with relatively active trading. The downstream's purchasing enthusiasm was low, mainly for rigid demand. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains prominent, with supply at a high level and still having growth expectations. The demand side has some resilience, and inventory reduction pressure persists throughout the year [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile and weak [2]. - Soda ash: Volatile and weak [2]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - For silicomanganese, the main contract of silicomanganese futures rose slightly yesterday. The silicomanganese market fluctuated, and the market was cautious. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. From January to August, India's cumulative export volume of silicomanganese was 761,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.90%; the cumulative import volume was 15,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.98%. Silicomanganese enterprises' losses have intensified, production is high, and with the decline of hot metal, demand has weakened. Considering the futures discount to the spot, the price is expected to remain volatile [3]. - For ferrosilicon, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The spot price was stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural block in Ningxia was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, the 72 - grade ferrosilicon standard block was quoted at 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon was quoted at 5800 yuan/ton. Currently, the production of ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased slightly, enterprises are continuously losing money, and the motivation to increase production is insufficient. The downstream demand for ferrosilicon has begun to weaken, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Volatile [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatile [4].
黑色建材日报:市场情绪好转,钢价震荡运行-20251022
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:25
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - Market sentiment for steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating; market sentiment for glass and soda ash is low, with glass and soda ash prices oscillating at low levels; the futures prices of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon have risen and then fallen, while the spot prices have shown mediocre performance [1][3] - For glass, supply is on a low - level upward trend, middle - stream trade inventory is high, speculative demand is weakening, and demand is expected to further decline with the end of the consumption peak season; for soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction remains prominent, supply is at a high level and has growth expectations, and the de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - For silicomanganese, enterprises' losses are intensifying, production is high, demand is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate; for ferrosilicon, enterprise production has slightly decreased, losses continue, demand is weakening, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated yesterday with active intraday trading, while the spot market had low trading sentiment and a wait - and - see attitude; soda ash futures also oscillated, with regional spot prices slightly adjusted and downstream buyers restocking based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass supply is on a low - level upward trend, middle - stream trade inventory is high, speculative demand is weakening, and demand is expected to decline further with the end of the consumption peak season; soda ash supply is at a high level and has growth expectations, demand has resilience, and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly; Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - The main contract of silicomanganese futures oscillated steadily yesterday, and the mainstream steel tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, with the 6517 grade having different market prices in the north and south; the main contract of ferrosilicon futures oscillated upward, and the spot prices were stable, with different prices for different grades in Ningxia [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicomanganese enterprises' losses are intensifying, production is high, demand is weakening with the decline of hot metal, and prices are expected to oscillate; ferrosilicon enterprises' production has slightly decreased, losses continue, demand is weakening, and inventory has increased, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating; Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]
市场情绪偏弱,钢价震荡下行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:13
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward; glass and soda ash markets are weak and oscillating due to cautious downstream procurement; the dual - silicon market is weak due to unmet peak - season demand [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Glass - Yesterday, the glass futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is generally stable, consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream inventory replenishment, inventory has decreased but overall change is limited, and fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and peak - season demand [1] Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens. The futures premium suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new - capacity投产 progress and inventory changes [1] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the coking coal futures tumbled, and the silicomanganese futures followed suit. The main contract closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous day.节前 market transactions were sluggish. This week, production continued to decline, hot - metal production increased slightly, downstream demand remained resilient, and alloy - enterprise inventory increased significantly. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose. Considering the futures discount to the spot, prices are expected to oscillate and follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and cost - support changes [3] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon futures contract closed at 5,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. This week, production and operating rates rebounded slightly, demand increased slightly with hot - metal production, factory inventory decreased month - on - month, and inventory was at a medium level compared to the same period. Currently, there are few supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes figures such as Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot price trends, futures contract closing - price trends, basis trends, cost and profit trends of various products, and spot price trends of raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal [5]
黑色建材日报:市场预期乐观,钢价震荡运行-20250926
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:13
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Soda Ash: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Silicomanganese: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] 2. Core Views - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The trading sentiment is high, and prices are expected to be volatile. Glass consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, while soda ash faces supply - demand contradictions, especially with the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project [1][2]. - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and alloys are expected to trade in a wide range. The supply - demand situation for both is relatively loose, and prices are likely to follow the sector's fluctuations [4]. 3. Market Analysis Glass - **Futures**: The glass futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 3.08%, and near - month contracts rising more than far - month contracts [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday restocking. With the price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.355 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 2.55% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Glass supply is generally stable. Consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with limited overall inventory changes. The large premium on the futures market stimulates spot - futures purchases. The fundamentals still suppress prices, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and peak - season demand [1]. Soda Ash - **Futures**: The soda ash futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 1.15%, and all contracts rising to varying degrees [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday rigid - demand restocking. This week, domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.19%; inventory was 1.6515 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply - demand contradictions in soda ash still exist. With the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project, future supply pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. The current premium on the futures market suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Silicomanganese - **Futures**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures closed at 5,938 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The silicomanganese spot market performed averagely. The price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, silicomanganese production decreased month - on - month, while hot metal production increased slightly. Downstream demand for silicomanganese still has resilience, and the inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises has increased. In the long term, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Futures**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5,786 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The ferrosilicon spot market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 6,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, ferrosilicon production remained flat, demand declined, and factory inventory decreased month - on - month. The supply - demand in the ferrosilicon industry is still relatively loose. Without industrial policies, profits are still suppressed. Prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. 4. Strategies - **Glass**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Soda Ash**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [3] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [3]
黑色建材日报:降息预期兑现,钢材维持累库-20250919
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 05:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been realized, and steel inventories continue to accumulate. The glass and soda ash markets show factory inventory destocking and significant downward movement in the futures market. The double - silicon market features firm spot prices and strong alloy performance [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy for Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, glass futures fluctuated downward. Downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs. With the recent price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous period, and factory inventory was 60.908 million heavy boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease. There is still a supply - demand contradiction in the glass market, and the short - term premium in the futures market suppresses price increases [1]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, soda ash futures also fluctuated downward. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking. This week, the operating rate was 85.53%, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, production was 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, and inventory was 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% month - on - month decrease. The supply - demand imbalance will continue with new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter, and the current premium in the futures market further suppresses price increases [1]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy for Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, manganese silicon showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. The manganese ore market maintained a price - supporting sentiment. The final price of the mainstream steel tender was 6,000 yuan/ton, with the price in the northern market at 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Production and sales slightly increased, but enterprise inventory rose due to continuous production growth. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern tends to be loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate and strengthen. The market sentiment was average, with the price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas at 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton and 75 - grade ferrosilicon at 6,000 - 6,050 yuan/ton. Production and sales were differentiated, and factory inventory reached a high level, suppressing prices. The industry has an obvious supply surplus, and profits are constrained without industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [4].
黑色建材日报:钢厂利润走缩,电炉持续减产-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:43
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass demand remains weak with high inventory and insufficient production cuts, leading to a weak price trend; soda ash supply is high and demand may weaken further with new capacity coming online, so the price is under pressure [1] - The supply - demand surplus in the ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon industries is obvious, and losses are needed to suppress production release, with prices expected to follow the sector's fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Directory Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures oscillated, and downstream procurement was cautious; soda ash futures had a narrow - range oscillation, and downstream demand was mainly for replenishing inventory [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass demand is weak, high inventory pressure persists, and production cuts are insufficient; soda ash supply is high, and demand may weaken further as new capacity is put into operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass and soda ash are both expected to oscillate weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Ferrosilicon manganese futures fell 0.21% to 5732 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 5650 - 5730 yuan/ton; ferrosilicon futures fell 0.14% to 5520 yuan/ton, and the spot price was slightly reduced [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Both ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon have increased production and sales and reduced inventories, but the supply - demand surplus is still obvious, and losses are needed to suppress production release [3] - **Strategy**: Both ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]
提涨暂未落地,双焦震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating as the price increase has not been implemented yet; glass and soda ash prices are oscillating within a narrow range due to supply disturbances; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are also fluctuating with the intertwining of long - short games [1][3] - Glass is expected to be weak and oscillating, and soda ash is also expected to be weak and oscillating; silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the speculative sentiment weakened. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly. The downstream spot market was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.48%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week; the output was 771,400 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.9108 million tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. With the previous price increase, the glass output increased significantly, and the pressure to reduce high inventory is great. The premium of the futures market has been quickly repaired. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies on the supply and demand sides of glass [1] - Soda Ash: With the implementation of new production capacity in the later stage and the lack of expectation of a significant increase in soda ash consumption, the supply - demand imbalance of soda ash will continue to intensify. Therefore, it is still necessary to restrict the release of production capacity and output through losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the supply side such as the progress of new production capacity commissioning [1] Strategy - Glass: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Weak and oscillating [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The long - short game sentiment in the silicomanganese futures market continued, and the market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market quotation did not change significantly. The price of silicomanganese 6517 in the northern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was about 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated within a narrow range, with a 0.28% increase. In the spot market, the market sentiment was average, and the spot price was slightly adjusted. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lump in the main production area was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicomanganese: The output of silicomanganese increased month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline, being at the median level in the same period in recent years. With the slight increase in the manganese ore quotation, the cost of silicomanganese increased. The market still shows an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to suppress the output release through a certain degree of losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and shipping situation of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: With the profit repair, the output of ferrosilicon increased rapidly, the demand decreased slightly week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. In the long run, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]