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现实供需双弱,钢价小幅波动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:11
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The current supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, with steel prices showing small fluctuations [1]. - The trading atmosphere in the glass and soda ash market is cold, and the prices are weakly oscillating [1]. - The market fluctuations of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have weakened, and the alloys are oscillating within a narrow range [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract showed a weakly oscillating trend throughout the day. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the trading volume decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the spot and futures markets was cold [1]. - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract continued to operate weakly, with narrow - range oscillations. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was cold, and the market was mainly for rigid - demand purchases [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - Glass: The fundamentals are still weak. There is an increasing expectation of production suspension in the Shahe area, which supports the market. However, the downstream is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the demand is cold. The current low price allows the market to tolerate higher inventory. In the short term, it will continue to operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash remains loose. With the progress of new production projects, the supply pressure continues to increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream consumption shows a seasonal decline due to more cold repairs. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is still at a high level, and the de - stocking process is slow, with large overall supply - demand contradictions [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures showed a small - scale oscillation, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous period. The spot market was stable. There were new ignition situations in northern factories, with the price of 6517 in the northern market ranging from 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures followed the overall black market and operated weakly. The spot market was weak, and the market was full of a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3]. Supply and Demand Logic - Silicomanganese: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved. There is an expectation of an increase in molten iron production, and the demand for silicomanganese has marginally improved. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The recent South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions of ferrosilicon are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production in steel mills, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of ferrosilicon suppresses the price increase, and continuous attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation and power price policies in production areas [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]
黑色建材日报:市场情绪一般,钢价震荡运行-20260204
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass is showing a strong upward trend with supply - side disturbances, while soda ash is in a weak downward trend. For the double - silicon products, the market sentiment is cautious, and the alloys are fluctuating [1][3] - The overall strategy is that glass and silicon products are in a fluctuating state, while soda ash is in a weak fluctuating state [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong upward trend yesterday, and the spot market prices remained stable with good sales by manufacturers [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market showed a weak downward trend yesterday, and the spot market was cautious, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. Although some production lines have been gradually shut down for maintenance, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of glass production line shutdowns [1] - Soda ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has rebounded. Considering the future new production projects of soda ash and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, it is necessary to suppress the production profits of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Fluctuating [2] - Soda ash: Weakly fluctuating [2] 3.2 Double - Silicon Products (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated yesterday. Before the festival, steel mills' inventory replenishment has gradually ended, and mainstream steel mills have not launched a new round of tenders. The prices are relatively firm. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market fluctuated yesterday. The spot market transactions were average, and downstream inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved. There is an expected increase in molten iron production in the future, and the demand for silicon manganese will improve marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. Recently, the South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, which may increase the cost of manganese ore in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of silicon iron and the power price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]
黑色建材日报:市场情绪高涨,煤价低位反弹-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:22
黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-30 市场情绪高涨,煤价低位反弹 玻璃纯碱:市场情绪提振,玻碱震荡反弹 供需与逻辑:玻璃市场短期供应偏紧格局延续,产线冷修持续推进叠加库存去化明显,供应端趋紧对价格形成支 撑;下游春节前备货需求亦为市场刚需提供一定支撑。后续需重点跟踪产线冷修进展及企业补库节奏。 纯碱方面:昨日纯碱 2605 主力合约震荡反弹。现货市场报价随盘面波动,成交价企稳,下游企业以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑:纯碱市场供应过剩的弱现实格局未明显改善,库存虽累库幅度不及市场预期,但仍处于高位;需求 端,浮法玻璃步入消费淡季,市场以春节刚需备货为主,后续需关注长假期间企业补库节奏。此外,受市场情绪 回暖带动,纯碱投机性需求有所回升。 策略 玻璃方面:震荡 纯碱方面:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 市场分析 玻璃方面:昨日玻璃2605主力合约有所反弹,成交量与持仓量较前日有所增加,交投活跃。现货报价随盘面价格 波动,部分厂家报价上涨。 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅:市场情绪提振,盘面震荡上行 市场分析 硅锰方面:昨日锰硅主力合约受黑色系期货影响,收涨1. ...
黑色建材日报:冬储意愿低迷,盘面震荡整理-20260129
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 04:22
黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-29 冬储意愿低迷,盘面震荡整理 玻璃纯碱:刚需采购为主,玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃:昨日玻璃主力合约全天呈现窄幅震荡走势。现货厂家报价基本维持前一日水平,下游市场以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑:供应端玻璃产线冷修预期持续升温,近期行业库存去化较好,库存边际压力有所缓解,但整体库存 仍处于高位,后续需持续跟踪春节前备货节奏;需求端呈现分化态势,光伏玻璃板块受 "抢出口" 预期支撑,刚需 表现相对稳健,而浮法玻璃受消费淡季影响,终端需求持续低迷。 纯碱:昨日纯碱主力合约延续震荡运行格局。现货市场报价随期货盘面高位波动,部分厂家小幅上调报价,下游 企业多持观望态度,采购意愿偏弱。 供需与逻辑:纯碱市场仍处于强供给、弱需求的弱现实格局。供应端,行业高产量、高库存的状态仍将持续,短 期对价格反弹高度形成明显压制,后续需要关注新产能投产进度;需求端持续疲软,未有明显变化,需跟踪小长 假前下游补库节奏的落地情况。近期纯碱市场情绪受化工板块整体回暖带动有所修复,其持续性仍有待进一步观 察。 策略 玻璃方面:震荡 纯碱方面:震荡偏弱 跨期:无 跨品种:无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进 ...
供需矛盾有限,盘面冲高回落
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 04:28
黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-27 供需矛盾有限,盘面冲高回落 玻璃纯碱:市场情绪修复,玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 市场分析 玻璃:昨日玻璃主力合约呈现震荡反弹态势。现货方面,市场报价持稳,期现市场交投氛围较之前有所回暖。 供需和逻辑:短期市场情绪修复,前期超跌后存在反弹需求。供应端冷修延续,部分地区厂家出货略有好转,库 存压力边际缓解,浮法玻仍以刚需采购为主。 纯碱:昨日纯碱主力合约震荡反弹走势。现货方面,市场报价随盘面高位震荡,下游观望为主,期现交易较之前 有所好转。 供需与逻辑:开工率有所下降,但是库存有所上升,春节小长假在即,浮法玻璃需求低迷,补库较弱,基本面矛 盾加深。短期来看,受益于市场情绪修复,投机需求上升,预计价格仍将维持震荡。 策略 玻璃方面:震荡 纯碱方面:震荡偏弱 跨期:无 跨品种:无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅:观望情绪浓厚,价格震荡运行 硅锰方面:昨日锰硅主力合约日内前弱运行,收盘结算价微跌,周初整体处于震荡运行状态。现货方面:合金成 本支撑尚可,6517北方市场价格5570-5680元/吨,南方市场价格5700-5750 ...
市场情绪偏弱,钢价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-22 04:11
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The resumption of production lines in the glass and soda ash sectors has led to a decline in their futures prices. The double - silicon market is suppressed by inventory, and the alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Group 3: Glass Market - Market performance: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, and the trading atmosphere in both futures and spot markets was cold [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has improved slightly, but the terminal rigid demand for float glass is difficult to break through in the off - season. In the short term, the glass futures maintain a premium. The glass industry still needs to reduce prices to further cut production due to high inventory. Future focus is on cold - repair and speculative activities [1] Group 4: Soda Ash Market - Market performance: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. The spot market was cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is increasing. New production capacity and the resumption of some devices have increased production, keeping the supply at a high level. The rigid demand from downstream float glass is average, and the demand improvement in photovoltaic glass is limited. If the weak fundamentals continue, soda ash will face further downward pressure. Future focus is on float glass production line changes and new soda ash production projects [1] Group 5: Silicomanganese Market - Market performance: The main contract of silicomanganese continued its weak oscillation yesterday, with limited price fluctuations and small trading volume changes. The 6517 silicomanganese price is 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but inventory pressure is still large, and new production capacity is being added. The supply - demand situation is still loose. There is an expected increase in pig iron production and pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills, which may improve demand. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Future focus is on manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] Group 6: Ferrosilicon Market - Market performance: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated yesterday. As the January steel procurement is coming to an end, the ferrosilicon market has adjusted slightly, with reduced enthusiasm from traders. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamental contradictions in the ferrosilicon market are controllable, and enterprises are actively reducing production loads. Considering steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, demand is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has affected market sentiment, but the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and overall over - capacity in the ferrosilicon industry will suppress price increases. Future focus is on inventory reduction and electricity price policies in production areas [3]
黑色建材日报:期货震荡偏弱,现货谨慎观望-20260121
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 03:52
黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-21 期货震荡偏弱,现货谨慎观望 玻璃纯碱:市场情绪偏弱,玻碱震荡下跌 市场分析 玻璃方面:昨日玻璃盘面震荡下跌,现货方面,现货市场报价持稳,厂家产销表现平淡,期现市场交投氛围冷清。 供需与逻辑:目前玻璃供需矛盾虽有所好转,但浮法玻璃终端刚需淡季难有突破。短期在投机性需求提升和节后 旺季预期的共同作用下,玻璃期货维持升水。考虑到玻璃面临化解高库存的任务,因此依旧需要通过压价达到进 一步减产的目的。后期关注玻璃冷修和投机情况。 纯碱方面,昨日纯碱盘面震荡运下跌,现货方面,市场以观望谨慎态度对待,下游企业刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑:纯碱供需矛盾有所增加,新投产能叠加部分装置恢复带动产量增加,供应维持高位,高供应持续压 制纯碱价格;需求端,下游浮法玻璃刚需一般,光伏玻璃需求改善有限,刚需持稳而投机需求不足。后续若基本 面延续弱现实格局,叠加期现贸易商主动抛货离场的悲观情绪传导,纯碱将面临进一步下行压力,关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面:震荡 纯碱方面:震荡偏弱 跨期:无 跨品种:无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双 ...
黑色建材日报:市场情绪一般,钢价震荡运行-20260115
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 03:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment is average, with steel prices fluctuating. The glass - soda ash market shows cautious sentiment and is running weakly, while the double - silicon market has futures fluctuating weakly and the spot market mostly in a wait - and - see state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main contract continued its weak operation yesterday, with a decline of 2.06%. On the spot side, manufacturers' quotes stabilized, production and sales were average, and the spot - futures trading was dull [1] - Soda Ash: The main contract mainly fluctuated yesterday, closing slightly down. On the spot side, quotes fluctuated with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly made replenishment based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The cold - repair of production lines continues, and there is still an expectation of production suspension before the Spring Festival, so the supply contraction pattern remains unchanged. On the demand side, in the context of the traditional off - season, it is weak, and downstream enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed. The trading volume has declined, but the open interest has increased month - on - month, putting further pressure on the futures price [1] - Soda Ash: The operating rate has increased, and the inventory remains at a high level, with continuous supply pressure. The subsequent release of new production capacity needs attention. The downstream cold - repair expectation is increasing, and enterprises' willingness to make rigid - demand purchases is insufficient. The glass demand is weak, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of soda ash remains relatively loose [1] Strategy - Glass: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuating weakly [2] Double Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As the black market returns to fundamentals, the trend of silicon manganese fluctuates weakly. On the spot side, the silicon manganese market is running weakly, with the price of 6517 in the northern market at 5630 - 5750 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Silicon iron futures fluctuated and consolidated. On the spot side, the silicon iron market did not change much, and the market was filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton in cash and tax - included, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large. With the resumption of production of steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the demand for silicon manganese is expected to improve. The recent tariff disturbance of South African manganese ore may increase the cost of manganese ore in the later stage [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced the production load. However, the slowdown in downstream purchases has led to an increase in factory inventory. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected the market sentiment, but considering the expected further decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon iron, the actual impact is relatively limited [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]
钢材供强需弱,累库趋势显现
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 02:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The glass and soda ash markets show divergent trends due to supply disturbances. The double - silicon market has cooled in sentiment, waiting for major steel tenders [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market fluctuated upward yesterday. Some manufacturers raised prices, and spot - futures traders gradually entered the market, providing short - term support for prices. This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 151,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the manufacturer inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market fluctuated downward yesterday, and downstream demand for spot purchases was limited. This week, the soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, and the inventory was 1.5727 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the purchase by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and the market has expectations for the peak season after the Spring Festival. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [1] - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market has increased, with supply rebounding month - on - month and demand weakening, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Considering the upcoming release of new production capacity and the expected increase in float glass cold - repair, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Continued attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate - No strategies are provided for inter - period and inter - commodity trading [2] Double - Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The market trading returned to rationality yesterday, and the bullish sentiment declined. The silicon manganese futures prices dropped. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The silicon ferrosilicon market was weak yesterday. As the steel tenders in January were in progress, traders were actively purchasing, and overall sales were good. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,350 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese are not favorable. The output is still higher than the demand, and the inventory has increased significantly. The resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for silicon manganese. Currently, the port inventory of manganese ore is low, providing a bottom support for silicon manganese prices. Silicon manganese is expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and changes in output [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions in the silicon ferrosilicon market have been alleviated compared to the previous period. Enterprises have actively reduced production, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. Considering the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the rigid demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. Due to the planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, the production cost of silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is expected to increase. Silicon ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction, cost changes, and regional policies [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Expected to fluctuate - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Expected to fluctuate [4]
市场情绪好转,钢价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 02:49
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are oscillating. Glass and soda ash are showing an oscillatory upward trend due to stable downstream consumption. Silicon ferroalloys (silicon manganese and silicon iron) are also experiencing price fluctuations influenced by various factors such as electricity costs, supply - demand relationships, and steel procurement [1][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated upward yesterday, while the spot market's transaction center shifted downward, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The soda ash futures market also oscillated upward, but downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and made purchases based on rigid demand [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is still significant. Although some production lines are gradually cold - repairing, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. There is a large inventory pressure, and there is a possibility of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The market has expectations for the post - Spring Festival peak season. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. Supply has decreased, and demand has weakened, leading to a month - on - month increase in inventory. With new soda ash projects planned for commissioning and the possibility of increased cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to control the production profit of soda ash enterprises [1]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is also expected to oscillate. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: The manganese silicon futures market rose slightly yesterday, with the overall sentiment improving. The market is oscillating, and market participants are waiting for the new round of steel procurement. The 6517 manganese silicon is priced at 5570 - 5670 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton in the southern market. The silicon iron futures market rose significantly due to the implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Traders are actively purchasing during the January steel procurement, and the overall sales are good. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural lump is priced at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade silicon iron is priced at 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not good, with production still higher than demand and a significant increase in inventory. Although the resumption of steel mills after New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for manganese silicon, the high inventory pressure restricts price increases. The low inventory of manganese ore at ports provides price support. For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated. Enterprises have actively reduced production, leading to a significant decrease in factory inventory. After the resumption of steel mills, the rigid demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi will increase the production cost of silicon iron enterprises, and the futures market is in a loss state [3]. - **Strategy**: Manganese silicon is expected to oscillate, and silicon iron is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4].