黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-09 钢材供强需弱，累库趋势显现 玻璃纯碱：供应扰动影响，玻碱走势分化 市场分析 玻璃方面，昨日玻璃盘面震荡上涨，现货方面，部分厂家存在涨价行为，期现商逐步拿货入场，短期对于价格有 所支撑。据隆众数据显示：本周浮法玻璃日融15.16万吨，环比减少0.17%，厂家库存5551.8万重箱，环比减少2.37%。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。伴随期现商采购，库存压力有所缓解，市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进展。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，下游刚需采购有限。据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量75.36万吨， 环比增加8.11%；库存157.27万吨，环比增加4.26%。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，供给环比回升，伴随需求转弱，库存明显增长。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目陆续释放产能，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡 局面。短期在宏观情绪带动下，纯碱投机性需求提升，后期持续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-07 市场情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：下游消费持稳，玻碱震荡上涨 市场分析 玻璃方面，昨日玻璃盘面震荡上行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡上涨，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。纯碱厂库大幅增长，价格压 力显现。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾相对有限，供给有所下降，伴随需求转弱，库存环比回升。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目投产，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，持 续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：硅铁电费影响，盘面快速拉涨 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日锰硅盘面小幅上涨，整体情绪有所好转。硅锰市场震荡运行，市场观望情 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-31 市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：交易情绪提振，玻碱盘面反弹 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘中波动加剧，成交活跃。现货方面，下游以观望刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，下游报价有所上调，期现成交惨淡，刚需采 购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾有所缓解，产量有所回落，库存持续下降。但考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投产， 同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，持续关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：合金期货反弹，现货小幅调整 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货反弹飘红。现货端：硅锰市场表现强势，期货开盘继续上行 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-25 市场情绪不振，钢价区间震荡 玻璃纯碱：产线检修增加，玻璃震荡上行 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡上涨，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。12月下旬部分产线存在 冷修，玻璃供给有所收缩。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格整体承压，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：观望情绪渐浓，合金盘整运行 市场分析 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 宏观政策、产能利用率变化、港口锰矿库存及下游需 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-23 市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：下游情绪谨慎，玻碱偏弱震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：现货报价坚挺，双硅盘面上行 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货整体维持上行，硅锰现货市场偏强运行，现货价格小幅上涨，6517北方市场价格5510-5 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-12 市场成交转弱，钢价震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾持续，玻璃震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡偏弱运行。现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。据隆众数据显 示：本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5822.7万重箱，环比减少2.05%。 供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，供应收缩扰动下，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍不足， 供需矛盾依旧较大。库存虽有所去化，但仍处高位，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。据隆众数据显示： 本周纯碱产量73.54万吨，环比增加4.48%；库存149.43万吨，环比减少2.88%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱成本端支撑有所减弱，库存虽有去化，但仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预 期，重碱需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 风险 宏观及房地产政策、宏观政策情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：建材消费下降，合金承压 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating strongly [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating strongly [4] 2. Core Views - Glass has large supply - demand contradictions, high inventory, and weak long - term demand due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the downturn in the real estate industry [1] - Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, with downstream rigid demand having resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with high production and inventory. Its price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with a significant increase in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases as needed [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions are large, inventory is high, and long - term demand is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures market oscillated upward yesterday. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and mainly made low - price rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions remain. Downstream rigid demand has resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to supply and cost changes [1] - Strategy: Oscillating [2] Ferromanganese - Market Analysis: The ferromanganese futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the ferromanganese market had strong wait - and - see sentiment, waiting for new steel procurement guidelines. The price in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, but production remains at a medium - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. The price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. The ferrosilicon market had little fluctuation, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon was priced at 5700 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed. Attention should be paid to cost changes in coal and electricity prices and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The macro - expected situation has been realized, and the market is under short - term pressure. The supply - demand contradictions in glass, soda ash, and double - silicon sectors continue to affect the prices of related products [1][3] 3. Market Analysis and Strategy by Product Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market dropped significantly yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for刚需. The开工 rate of float glass enterprises this week was 80.63%, unchanged from last week, and the factory inventory was 65.79 million heavy boxes, a 1.24% decrease from last week, showing obvious inventory reduction. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still large, the inventory pressure is still at a historically high level, and the futures - cash merchants are squeezing the market share of glass factories. With the end of the consumption peak season and the potential for some production lines to resume production, the glass price is expected to remain under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market showed a weak oscillating trend yesterday. Downstream procurement is mainly for刚需 replenishment. This week, the soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a 2.29% increase from last week, and the inventory was 1.702 million tons, a 0.01% decrease from last week. The supply - demand contradiction remains, with the supply expected to increase further, the刚需 showing resilience, and the speculative demand weakening. The inventory reduction pressure will persist throughout the year [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,842 yuan/ton yesterday. The spot market was stable, and the alloy cost support was fair. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Although silicomanganese enterprises are facing increasing losses, the production remains high, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Recently, coking coal has driven the upward movement of the black sector, strengthening the bottom support of silicomanganese. It is expected that the silicomanganese price will continue to fluctuate with the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures tried to rise in the morning but faced pressure and then declined in the afternoon under the influence of the black sector. The spot market sentiment was flat, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. Currently, ferrosilicon enterprises have high production and high inventory, and the demand is expected to weaken. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, it has not effectively curbed production, and the weak fundamental situation is difficult to reverse. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon price will follow the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream sentiment was cautious, with mainly rigid - demand purchases. The supply - demand contradiction was significant, inventory pressure increased, and the market share of glass factories was squeezed by futures - cash traders. With the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the possibility of some production lines resuming, the glass price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market also had narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply - demand contradiction persisted, with an expected increase in supply, resilient rigid demand, and weakened speculative demand. De - stocking pressure would last throughout the year. Focus on supply changes and downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The strategy is to expect a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - Soda Ash: The strategy is to expect a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures market rose following the overall black - series market. There was strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market at the beginning of the week, with few spot quotations. Although losses of silicomanganese enterprises increased, production remained high, and de - stocking pressure was large. The price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Attention should be paid to cost support and regional policies. The 6517 silicomanganese price in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures had a small increase after consolidation. The spot market sentiment was flat, with most cautious operations. Ferrosilicon enterprises had high production and high inventory, and demand was expected to weaken. Despite continuous losses, production was not effectively curbed, and the weak fundamental situation was difficult to reverse. The short - term price is expected to follow the sector. Monitor changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [3]. Group 4: Strategies for Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The strategy is to expect a fluctuating trend [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The strategy is to expect a fluctuating trend [4]. Group 5: Graphs and Their Information - The report includes multiple graphs showing various aspects such as the spot and futures prices, cost, profit, and basis of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, soda ash, glass, power coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The inventory of steel decreased month - on - month, and steel prices rebounded. The cost of glass and soda ash increased, and their prices rebounded from the low level. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures rose slightly, while the spot market remained on the sidelines [1][3]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and soda ash prices are also expected to be volatile and weak. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to remain volatile [2][4]. Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures fluctuated strongly yesterday with active trading. The spot market was cautious, and enterprises offered flexible prices. The supply of glass is on a low - level upward trend, the inventory of middle - stream traders is high and still accumulating. With the end of the consumption peak season approaching and the possibility of some production lines resuming production, glass demand is expected to weaken further [1]. - Soda ash futures also fluctuated strongly yesterday with relatively active trading. The downstream's purchasing enthusiasm was low, mainly for rigid demand. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains prominent, with supply at a high level and still having growth expectations. The demand side has some resilience, and inventory reduction pressure persists throughout the year [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile and weak [2]. - Soda ash: Volatile and weak [2]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - For silicomanganese, the main contract of silicomanganese futures rose slightly yesterday. The silicomanganese market fluctuated, and the market was cautious. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. From January to August, India's cumulative export volume of silicomanganese was 761,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.90%; the cumulative import volume was 15,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.98%. Silicomanganese enterprises' losses have intensified, production is high, and with the decline of hot metal, demand has weakened. Considering the futures discount to the spot, the price is expected to remain volatile [3]. - For ferrosilicon, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The spot price was stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural block in Ningxia was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, the 72 - grade ferrosilicon standard block was quoted at 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon was quoted at 5800 yuan/ton. Currently, the production of ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased slightly, enterprises are continuously losing money, and the motivation to increase production is insufficient. The downstream demand for ferrosilicon has begun to weaken, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Volatile [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatile [4].